Turkish inflation accelerated for a sixth month in November to the highest level in three years, driven by a slump in the lira that continues to cloud the consumer price outlook.
Annual inflation climbed to 21.31 per cent through last month, up from 19.89 per cent in October. That was faster than the 20.7 per cent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 20 analysts. Monthly inflation was 3.51 per cent, compared with the median estimate of 3 per cent in a separate survey.
The lira fell as much as 1.4 per cent after the release, nearing a record low of 13.9519 per US dollar seen earlier this week.
[The] lira sell-off only began in mid-November. December’s inflation print will be materially worse
Ehsan Khoman,
head of emerging market research for Europe, Middle East and Africa, MUFG Bank
The “lira sell-off only began in mid-November and thus did not completely show through in” Friday’s data, said Ehsan Khoman, head of emerging market research for Europe, Middle East and Africa at MUFG Bank in Dubai. “December’s inflation print will be materially worse.”
It is the first high-profile data point showing that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s plan to stabilise prices by lowering interest rates and letting the lira sink is backfiring.
In Mr Erdogan's eyes, the lira’s weakness is the cost of turning Turkey into an industrial powerhouse and freeing the country from a dependence on short-term foreign cash, which flows into the economy when rates are high.
But the currency’s 29 per cent drop during November – the biggest monthly slump since Turkey adopted a floating exchange regime two decades ago – is fuelling prices and unease among voters, producing the exact opposite of what Mr Erdogan is trying to achieve.
The lira dropped as much as 1.3 per cent to 13.8627 per dollar as of 12.48pm in Istanbul, nearing the record low it recorded last week.
Energy prices rose an annual 32.14 per cent in November from 25.76 per cent the previous month, although Turkey continues to subsidise natural gas and oil products to reduce the financial burden of increasing costs on end users.
A global commodity boom also contributed to producer prices, where inflation reached 54.6 per cent, the highest reading since April 2002, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Annual price gains in food, which makes up about a quarter of the consumer basket, slowed to 27.11 per cent from 27.41 per cent, but is still well above the end-2021 official estimate of 23.4 per cent.
The acceleration takes Turkey’s benchmark interest rate adjusted for inflation to negative 6.3 per cent, one of the lowest real yields among emerging markets.
Fitch Ratings cited the direction of monetary policy and a lack of consistent forward guidance as it downgraded the outlook on Turkey’s credit rating from stable to negative.
The central bank’s “premature” easing cycle and the prospect of further monetary and fiscal stimulus ahead of the general elections scheduled for 2023 “create risks to macroeconomic and financial stability and could potentially re-ignite external financing pressures”, Fitch said on Thursday.
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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1.
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United States
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2.
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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7.
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Singapore
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8.
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Australia
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9.
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Saudi Arabia
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10.
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South Korea
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Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
The Details
Kabir Singh
Produced by: Cinestaan Studios, T-Series
Directed by: Sandeep Reddy Vanga
Starring: Shahid Kapoor, Kiara Advani, Suresh Oberoi, Soham Majumdar, Arjun Pahwa
Rating: 2.5/5
How to join and use Abu Dhabi’s public libraries
• There are six libraries in Abu Dhabi emirate run by the Department of Culture and Tourism, including one in Al Ain and Al Dhafra.
• Libraries are free to visit and visitors can consult books, use online resources and study there. Most are open from 8am to 8pm on weekdays, closed on Fridays and have variable hours on Saturdays, except for Qasr Al Watan which is open from 10am to 8pm every day.
• In order to borrow books, visitors must join the service by providing a passport photograph, Emirates ID and a refundable deposit of Dh400. Members can borrow five books for three weeks, all of which are renewable up to two times online.
• If users do not wish to pay the fee, they can still use the library’s electronic resources for free by simply registering on the website. Once registered, a username and password is provided, allowing remote access.
• For more information visit the library network's website.
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
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OIL PLEDGE
At the start of Russia's invasion, IEA member countries held 1.5 billion barrels in public reserves and about 575 million barrels under obligations with industry, according to the agency's website. The two collective actions of the IEA this year of 62.7 million barrels, which was agreed on March 1, and this week's 120 million barrels amount to 9 per cent of total emergency reserves, it added.
WHAT%20IS%20THE%20LICENSING%20PROCESS%20FOR%20VARA%3F
%3Cp%3EVara%20will%20cater%20to%20three%20categories%20of%20companies%20in%20Dubai%20(except%20the%20DIFC)%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECategory%20A%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Minimum%20viable%20product%20(MVP)%20applicants%20that%20are%20currently%20in%20the%20process%20of%20securing%20an%20MVP%20licence%3A%20This%20is%20a%20three-stage%20process%20starting%20with%20%5B1%5D%20a%20provisional%20permit%2C%20graduating%20to%20%5B2%5D%20preparatory%20licence%20and%20concluding%20with%20%5B3%5D%20operational%20licence.%20Applicants%20that%20are%20already%20in%20the%20MVP%20process%20will%20be%20advised%20by%20Vara%20to%20either%20continue%20within%20the%20MVP%20framework%20or%20be%20transitioned%20to%20the%20full%20market%20product%20licensing%20process.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECategory%20B%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Existing%20legacy%20virtual%20asset%20service%20providers%20prior%20to%20February%207%2C%202023%2C%20which%20are%20required%20to%20come%20under%20Vara%20supervision.%20All%20operating%20service%20proviers%20in%20Dubai%20(excluding%20the%20DIFC)%20fall%20under%20Vara%E2%80%99s%20supervision.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECategory%20C%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20New%20applicants%20seeking%20a%20Vara%20licence%20or%20existing%20applicants%20adding%20new%20activities.%20All%20applicants%20that%20do%20not%20fall%20under%20Category%20A%20or%20B%20can%20begin%20the%20application%20process%20through%20their%20current%20or%20prospective%20commercial%20licensor%20%E2%80%94%20the%20DET%20or%20Free%20Zone%20Authority%20%E2%80%94%20or%20directly%20through%20Vara%20in%20the%20instance%20that%20they%20have%20yet%20to%20determine%20the%20commercial%20operating%20zone%20in%20Dubai.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Pad Man
Dir: R Balki
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Sonam Kapoor, Radhika Apte
Three-and-a-half stars
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
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Match info
Uefa Champions League Group F
Manchester City v Hoffenheim, midnight (Wednesday, UAE)
The biog
Name: Shamsa Hassan Safar
Nationality: Emirati
Education: Degree in emergency medical services at Higher Colleges of Technology
Favourite book: Between two hearts- Arabic novels
Favourite music: Mohammed Abdu and modern Arabic songs
Favourite way to spend time off: Family visits and spending time with friends
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
%20Ramez%20Gab%20Min%20El%20Akher
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New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
