India's economy is turning a corner and looks set for a strong rebound this year, helped by a pick-up in the pace of Covid-19 vaccinations and a progressive drop in new infections.
However, Asia's third-largest economy is not yet on the home straight and risks including inflation can hamper the recovery, analysts say.
“Given a faster ramp-up in vaccinations and opening of the economy, a rebound in economic momentum is quite visible,” Binod Modi, head of strategy at Mumbai-based Reliance Securities, says.
“In our view, India is set to witness healthy economic growth [this year].”
The economy took a massive battering last year as the country of 1.3 billion people imposed one of the strictest Covid-19 lockdowns in the world.
Many restrictions were reimposed this year, as India went through a deadly second wave of the pandemic. At its peak in May, the country recorded more than 400,000 cases a day, health ministry figures show.
The country's gross domestic product shrank 7.3 per cent in the financial year to the end of March, a major setback for the developing economy.
India needs to achieve annual GDP growth of 8 per cent or more to lift people out of poverty and create enough jobs for its large, young population.
In recent months, the government has removed most Covid-related restrictions.
New coronavirus cases have been averaging about 10,000 a day in the past week.
The majority of the eligible population has received at least a first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, which is driving optimism for a steep economic rebound.
“There is light at the end of the tunnel,” Luis Breuer, the International Monetary Fund's senior resident representative to India, said in a podcast earlier in November.
The IMF forecasts that India's GDP will grow 9.5 per cent in the current financial year and 8.5 per cent the following year.
“Granted it is from a low base, but the economy is recovering,” Mr Breuer says.
In its November 15 report, the Reserve Bank of India said that the country's job market is rebounding and “overall economic activity is on the cusp of a strengthening revival”.
However, “the global economic outlook remains shrouded in uncertainty with headwinds from multiple fronts”, it warned.
“In India, the recovery gained strength though the speed and pace of improvement remains uneven across different sectors of the economy,” the RBI said. “Indicators of aggregate demand posit a brighter near-term outlook than before”.
Business owners are optimistic about the economic rebound and expect the momentum to continue as spending improves.
“The economy is getting back to normal quite fast, primarily because of consumer spending,” says Rohit Gawli, chief executive and co-founder of The Lokal Kitchen, a Mumbai-based food technology company.
The pandemic was “tumultuous” for most businesses in India, Rasesh Seth, founder and managing partner at Nextyn, a management consulting firm, says.
Several of the company's projects were put on hold but are back on track.
“Business activity for us came back to pre-Covid levels in the middle of 2021, and now we're seeing consistent double-digit growth of about 12 to 15 per cent, as most of the business community is vaccinated and eligible to resume office as well as business travel,” says Mr Seth.
The recent economic data also points to accelerating growth momentum as the pace of vaccination improves.
India's exports increased 43 per cent annually to $35.65 billion in October, the latest statistics released on Monday showed.
The country's manufacturing sector has expanded for four consecutive months, according to IHS Markit Purchasing Managers' Index.
Foreign direct investment is also growing, up 62 per cent to $27bn in the April to July period. Indian tech start-ups, including food delivery app Zomato and digital payments company PayTM that listed on the stock exchanges this year, were among beneficiaries of FDI.
“Coincidentally, the time Indian start-ups started getting listed on Indian exchanges is when Chinese start-ups came under their regulatory overhaul and [global] investors started fleeing from China", says Tanushree Banerjee, co-head of research at Equitymaster. “So a lot of that money has come to India.”
Mr Seth said the pick-up in investment is among the factors that are making him “very bullish on the Indian economy”.
“We are seeing more and more foreign investment come into the start-up economy, which shows that the world is bullish about India's growth too.”
But analysts and business leaders are also sounding caution over looming risks including a third wave of Covid infections and headwinds from the wider global economy. The biggest and most immediate concern for business in India is inflation.
Given a faster ramp-up in vaccinations and opening of the economy, a rebound in economic momentum is quite visible. In our view, India is set to witness healthy economic growth
Binod Modi,
head of strategy, Reliance Securities
Higher crude oil prices globally have pushed fuel prices to record highs in India in recent weeks. The country imports most of its oil and, as well as weighing on its trade deficit, it has fed into inflation. Data released last week showed that wholesale price inflation has hit a five-month high of 12.54 per cent in October.
There has been some relief with tax cuts on petrol and diesel from the government this month, although fuel prices still remain "uncomfortably high".
Rising prices “are posing a challenge to the small businesses to operate as they impact their costs of production and ... margins”, says Pradeep Multani, president of the Delhi-based PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Small businesses were among those most affected by the pandemic.
“Prices are significantly increasing the input costs of the industry and reducing its competitiveness in the domestic and international markets. The shortages of raw materials are [also] impacting the production and anticipated sales volumes.”
However, despite challenges, Mr Multani is upbeat about the state of the country's economy.
“The uptrend in the main economic and business indicators in the recent months shows that the economic recovery is strengthening," he says, adding that a rapid progress in vaccinations, festive season and resultant increase in "consumer and industry sentiments" has also underpinned the rebound.
Economic reforms instituted by the government have also contributed to the country's economic recovery.
“Reform measures by the government in various industries like manufacturing – in the form of production linked incentive schemes – infrastructure, telecom among others, have started yielding results and supporting economic activities,” says Reliance Securities' Mr Modi.
However, one of the biggest reforms under the Narendra Modi government, involving three agriculture laws passed last year, was scrapped on Friday following a year of protests by farmers.
The government had insisted that the laws – aimed at deregulating the sector and allowing farmers to sell directly to corporates beyond the state-run wholesale markets – would iron out the inefficiencies and wastage rampant in agriculture and improve profitability for growers.
However, farmers were concerned that corporates would offer them lower rates than the guaranteed prices they currently secure from the wholesale markets.
Experts had widely expected the now repealed laws to bring in much-needed private investment into the country's agriculture sector, which accounts for about 15 per cent of its GDP.
Despite such setbacks, for now, optimism abounds in India as its economic recovery gathers pace.
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Company%C2%A0profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETuhoon%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EYear%20started%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJune%202021%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFares%20Ghandour%2C%20Dr%20Naif%20Almutawa%2C%20Aymane%20Sennoussi%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERiyadh%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Ehealth%20care%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESize%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E15%20employees%2C%20%24250%2C000%20in%20revenue%0D%3Cbr%3EI%3Cstrong%3Envestment%20stage%3A%20s%3C%2Fstrong%3Eeed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EWamda%20Capital%2C%20Nuwa%20Capital%2C%20angel%20investors%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
The biog
Age: 32
Qualifications: Diploma in engineering from TSI Technical Institute, bachelor’s degree in accounting from Dubai’s Al Ghurair University, master’s degree in human resources from Abu Dhabi University, currently third years PHD in strategy of human resources.
Favourite mountain range: The Himalayas
Favourite experience: Two months trekking in Alaska
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Mamo Year it started: 2019 Founders: Imad Gharazeddine, Asim Janjua Based: Dubai, UAE Number of employees: 28 Sector: Financial services Investment: $9.5m Funding stage: Pre-Series A Investors: Global Ventures, GFC, 4DX Ventures, AlRajhi Partners, Olive Tree Capital, and prominent Silicon Valley investors. match info
Southampton 0
Arsenal 2 (Nketiah 20', Willock 87')
Red card: Jack Stephens (Southampton)
Man of the match: Rob Holding (Arsenal)
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Power: 650hp at 6,750rpm
Torque: 800Nm from 2,500-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Fuel consumption: 11.12L/100km
Price: From Dh796,600
On sale: now
Essentials
The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct from the UAE to Delhi from about Dh950 return including taxes.
The hotels
Double rooms at Tijara Fort-Palace cost from 6,670 rupees (Dh377), including breakfast.
Doubles at Fort Bishangarh cost from 29,030 rupees (Dh1,641), including breakfast. Doubles at Narendra Bhawan cost from 15,360 rupees (Dh869). Doubles at Chanoud Garh cost from 19,840 rupees (Dh1,122), full board. Doubles at Fort Begu cost from 10,000 rupees (Dh565), including breakfast.
The tours
Amar Grover travelled with Wild Frontiers. A tailor-made, nine-day itinerary via New Delhi, with one night in Tijara and two nights in each of the remaining properties, including car/driver, costs from £1,445 (Dh6,968) per person.
Company Profile
Company name: OneOrder
Started: October 2021
Founders: Tamer Amer and Karim Maurice
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Industry: technology, logistics
Investors: A15 and self-funded
The Two Popes
Director: Fernando Meirelles
Stars: Anthony Hopkins, Jonathan Pryce
Four out of five stars
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
HAJJAN
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THE BIO
Family: I have three siblings, one older brother (age 25) and two younger sisters, 20 and 13
Favourite book: Asking for my favourite book has to be one of the hardest questions. However a current favourite would be Sidewalk by Mitchell Duneier
Favourite place to travel to: Any walkable city. I also love nature and wildlife
What do you love eating or cooking: I’m constantly in the kitchen. Ever since I changed the way I eat I enjoy choosing and creating what goes into my body. However, nothing can top home cooked food from my parents.
Favorite place to go in the UAE: A quiet beach.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The%20specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%204cyl%20turbo%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E261hp%20at%205%2C500rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E400Nm%20at%201%2C750-4%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E10.5L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh129%2C999%20(VX%20Luxury)%3B%20from%20Dh149%2C999%20(VX%20Black%20Gold)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
As You Were
Liam Gallagher
(Warner Bros)
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
At a glance
- 20,000 new jobs for Emiratis over three years
- Dh300 million set aside to train 18,000 jobseekers in new skills
- Managerial jobs in government restricted to Emiratis
- Emiratis to get priority for 160 types of job in private sector
- Portion of VAT revenues will fund more graduate programmes
- 8,000 Emirati graduates to do 6-12 month replacements in public or private sector on a Dh10,000 monthly wage - 40 per cent of which will be paid by government
PRISCILLA
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So what is Spicy Chickenjoy?
Just as McDonald’s has the Big Mac, Jollibee has Spicy Chickenjoy – a piece of fried chicken that’s crispy and spicy on the outside and comes with a side of spaghetti, all covered in tomato sauce and topped with sausage slices and ground beef. It sounds like a recipe that a child would come up with, but perhaps that’s the point – a flavourbomb combination of cheap comfort foods. Chickenjoy is Jollibee’s best-selling product in every country in which it has a presence.
Getting there
Flydubai flies direct from Dubai to Tbilisi from Dh1,025 return including taxes
INDIA'S%20TOP%20INFLUENCERS
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Napoleon
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Ridley%20Scott%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Joaquin%20Phoenix%2C%20Vanessa%20Kirby%2C%20Tahar%20Rahim%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%202%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Small%20Things%20Like%20These
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The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
2018 ICC World Twenty20 Asian Western Sub Regional Qualifier
Event info: The tournament in Kuwait is the first phase of the qualifying process for sides from Asia for the 2020 World T20 in Australia. The UAE must finish within the top three teams out of the six at the competition to advance to the Asia regional finals. Success at regional finals would mean progression to the World T20 Qualifier.
Teams: UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Maldives, Qatar
Friday fixtures: 9.30am (UAE time) - Kuwait v Maldives, Qatar v UAE; 3pm - Saudi Arabia v Bahrain
The stats
Ship name: MSC Bellissima
Ship class: Meraviglia Class
Delivery date: February 27, 2019
Gross tonnage: 171,598 GT
Passenger capacity: 5,686
Crew members: 1,536
Number of cabins: 2,217
Length: 315.3 metres
Maximum speed: 22.7 knots (42kph)
