Business activity in the non-oil private sectors of the Arab world’s two biggest economies continued to improve in October, boosted by the easing of Covid-19 restrictions, a rise in tourism and increased spending amid the economic recovery.
Saudi Arabia’s IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index was 57.7 in October, the second-highest reading recorded since the start of the pandemic.
Despite slipping from 58.6 in September, it underlined a sharp improvement in the kingdom's business conditions.
A reading above 50 indicates economic expansion, while anything below points to a contraction.
The drop in the headline PMI reading was largely driven by a slide in the new orders sub-index from its seven-year high in September. However, it is still indicative of a substantial rise in sales.
The upturn in demand was driven by a boost in spending in the domestic economy as the kingdom further eased pandemic-related restrictions, including those on travel.
New export work hit its highest level since May on improving global trade flows, according to the businesses surveyed.
“October PMI data showed the non-oil sector recovering at a rapid pace,” said IHS Markit economist David Owen.
“Growth in output was the strongest seen for nearly four years, driven by a marked rise in client demand as the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions continued to boost economic activity.”
The sharp rise in output in October also helped businesses to reduce their work backlogs.
Employment numbers also rose, continuing the growth sequence reported in each month since April. However, the rate of job creation was only marginal.
Purchasing activity also grew at its quickest pace in three months as companies looked to support stock levels, with both input buying and inventories expanding sharply in October, according to the survey.
“The rate of purchase cost inflation sharpened during October, giving further signs that rising commodity prices are feeding through to firms' balance sheets,” Mr Owen said.
“With confidence towards sales prospects running strong, businesses were able to pass on costs to customers, with the quickest rise in output prices since August 2020.”
In the UAE, the headline PMI reading climbed to 55.7 in October, from 53.3 in September, underpinning a marked increase in new business during the month, driven by rising spending amid the opening of Expo 2020 Dubai.
Output levels in the Emirates also rose at the strongest pace in more than two years while business confidence also improved.
The sub-indexes of both new business and output hit their highest levels in more than two years, according to the latest data.
Businesses surveyed attributed the sharp improvement in business activity to the Expo, which helped to boost sales in a number of sectors as tourism strengthened and investment spending grew.
“The Expo 2020 finally began in the UAE … and brought a highly welcome surge in growth across the non-oil private sector,” Mr Owen said.
Forecasts for future output also improved considerably in October, amid hopes that the positive impact from Expo 2020 can be sustained. The overall degree of business optimism in the Emirates was at its strongest since March 2020.
“The boost to sales led more companies to predict a rise in activity over the next 12 months as optimism jumped,” Mr Owen said.
Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia have made strong recoveries from the pandemic-induced slowdown that tipped the global economy last year into its worst recession since the 1930s.
Mass inoculation campaigns and the government fiscal's support has helped businesses to recover.
The UAE has further eased pandemic-related restrictions on businesses and travel after the number of daily Covid-19 infections fell to below 100, from a peak of about 4,000 earlier in the year.
The UAE has administered more than 21.2 million doses of vaccines, enough to vaccinate more than 98 per cent of the country's population.
So far, 46.1 million shots have been administered in Saudi Arabia, enough for about 68 per cent of the kingdom's population, according to Bloomberg's vaccine tracker.
Emirates NBD, Dubai's largest lender, expects "to see improved growth momentum in the fourth quarter, as travel restrictions continue to be relaxed and Expo 2020 should boost domestic spending. Overall we expect the UAE non-oil sectors to grow 3.5 per cent this year, accelerating to 4.0 per cent in 2020," it said in a research note on Wednesday.
The Expo 2020 finally began in the UAE at the start of October and brought a highly welcome surge in growth across the non-oil private sector
David Owen,
economist at IHS Markit
Meanwhile, business conditions in Egypt's non-oil private sector economy deteriorated slightly in October. The headline PMI reading declined to 48.7 in October, from 48.9 in September, to hit the lowest level since May.
A widening of the supply chain crisis in October and a lack of inputs led to a contraction in output and the sharpest increases in both costs and charges.
Export sales fell at their fastest pace in 17 months, although an ongoing recovery in local sales meant that demand conditions remained relatively buoyant.
“The Egyptian non-oil sector's recovery was stemmed in October as supply chain problems worsened around the globe. Having previously been less [affected] than Europe and other regions, Egyptian firms started to feel the burden of material shortages on both output and inventories,” Mr Owen said.
“This will likely spill over into further reductions in output by the end of the year.”
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
Women's Prize for Fiction shortlist
The Silence of the Girls by Pat Barker
My Sister, the Serial Killer by Oyinkan Braithwaite
Milkman by Anna Burns
Ordinary People by Diana Evans
An American Marriage by Tayari Jones
Circe by Madeline Miller
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
In numbers
Number of Chinese tourists coming to UAE in 2017 was... 1.3m
Alibaba’s new ‘Tech Town’ in Dubai is worth... $600m
China’s investment in the MIddle East in 2016 was... $29.5bn
The world’s most valuable start-up in 2018, TikTok, is valued at... $75bn
Boost to the UAE economy of 5G connectivity will be... $269bn
More on animal trafficking
How Tesla’s price correction has hit fund managers
Investing in disruptive technology can be a bumpy ride, as investors in Tesla were reminded on Friday, when its stock dropped 7.5 per cent in early trading to $575.
It recovered slightly but still ended the week 15 per cent lower and is down a third from its all-time high of $883 on January 26. The electric car maker’s market cap fell from $834 billion to about $567bn in that time, a drop of an astonishing $267bn, and a blow for those who bought Tesla stock late.
The collapse also hit fund managers that have gone big on Tesla, notably the UK-based Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF.
Tesla is the top holding in both funds, making up a hefty 10 per cent of total assets under management. Both funds have fallen by a quarter in the past month.
Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, recently warned that Tesla founder Elon Musk had “flown a bit too close to the sun”, after getting carried away by investing $1.5bn of the company’s money in Bitcoin.
He also predicted Tesla’s sales could struggle as traditional auto manufacturers ramp up electric car production, destroying its first mover advantage.
AJ Bell’s Russ Mould warns that many investors buy tech stocks when earnings forecasts are rising, almost regardless of valuation. “When it works, it really works. But when it goes wrong, elevated valuations leave little or no downside protection.”
A Tesla correction was probably baked in after last year’s astonishing share price surge, and many investors will see this as an opportunity to load up at a reduced price.
Dramatic swings are to be expected when investing in disruptive technology, as Ms Wood at ARK makes clear.
Every week, she sends subscribers a commentary listing “stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15 per cent in a day” during the week.
Her latest commentary, issued on Friday, showed seven stocks displaying extreme volatility, led by ExOne, a leader in binder jetting 3D printing technology. It jumped 24 per cent, boosted by news that fellow 3D printing specialist Stratasys had beaten fourth-quarter revenues and earnings expectations, seen as good news for the sector.
By contrast, computational drug and material discovery company Schrödinger fell 27 per cent after quarterly and full-year results showed its core software sales and drug development pipeline slowing.
Despite that setback, Ms Wood remains positive, arguing that its “medicinal chemistry platform offers a powerful and unique view into chemical space”.
In her weekly video view, she remains bullish, stating that: “We are on the right side of change, and disruptive innovation is going to deliver exponential growth trajectories for many of our companies, in fact, most of them.”
Ms Wood remains committed to Tesla as she expects global electric car sales to compound at an average annual rate of 82 per cent for the next five years.
She said these are so “enormous that some people find them unbelievable”, and argues that this scepticism, especially among institutional investors, “festers” and creates a great opportunity for ARK.
Only you can decide whether you are a believer or a festering sceptic. If it’s the former, then buckle up.
Picture of Joumblatt and Hariri breaking bread sets Twitter alight
Mr Joumblatt’s pessimism regarding the Lebanese political situation didn’t stop him from enjoying a cheerful dinner on Tuesday with several politicians including Mr Hariri.
Caretaker Culture Minister Ghattas Khoury tweeted a picture of the group sitting around a table at a discrete fish restaurant in Beirut’s upscale Sodeco area.
Mr Joumblatt told The National that the fish served at Kelly’s Fish lounge had been very good.
“They really enjoyed their time”, remembers the restaurant owner. “Mr Hariri was taking selfies with everybody”.
Mr Hariri and Mr Joumblatt often have dinner together to discuss recent political developments.
Mr Joumblatt was a close ally of Mr Hariri’s assassinated father, former prime minister Rafik Hariri. The pair were leading figures in the political grouping against the 15-year Syrian occupation of Lebanon that ended after mass protests in 2005 in the wake of Rafik Hariri’s murder. After the younger Hariri took over his father’s mantle in 2004, the relationship with Mr Joumblatt endured.
However, the pair have not always been so close. In the run-up to the election last year, Messrs Hariri and Joumblatt went months without speaking over an argument regarding the new proportional electoral law to be used for the first time. Mr Joumblatt worried that a proportional system, which Mr Hariri backed, would see the influence of his small sect diminished.
With so much of Lebanese politics agreed in late-night meetings behind closed doors, the media and pundits put significant weight on how regularly, where and with who senior politicians meet.
In the picture, alongside Messrs Khoury and Hariri were Mr Joumbatt and his wife Nora, PSP politician Wael Abou Faour and Egyptian ambassador to Lebanon Nazih el Nagari.
The picture of the dinner led to a flurry of excitement on Twitter that it signified an imminent government formation. “God willing, white smoke will rise soon and Walid Beik [a nickname for Walid Joumblatt] will accept to give up the minister of industry”, one user replied to the tweet. “Blessings to you…We would like you to form a cabinet”, wrote another.
The next few days will be crucial in determining whether these wishes come true.
KEY%20DATES%20IN%20AMAZON'S%20HISTORY
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Key products and UAE prices
iPhone XS
With a 5.8-inch screen, it will be an advance version of the iPhone X. It will be dual sim and comes with better battery life, a faster processor and better camera. A new gold colour will be available.
Price: Dh4,229
iPhone XS Max
It is expected to be a grander version of the iPhone X with a 6.5-inch screen; an inch bigger than the screen of the iPhone 8 Plus.
Price: Dh4,649
iPhone XR
A low-cost version of the iPhone X with a 6.1-inch screen, it is expected to attract mass attention. According to industry experts, it is likely to have aluminium edges instead of stainless steel.
Price: Dh3,179
Apple Watch Series 4
More comprehensive health device with edge-to-edge displays that are more than 30 per cent bigger than displays on current models.
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4-litre%20flat-six%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E525hp%20(GT3)%2C%20500hp%20(GT4)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E465Nm%20(GT3)%2C%20450Nm%20(GT4)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeven-speed%20automatic%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh944%2C000%20(GT3)%2C%20Dh581%2C700%20(GT4)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE squad
Esha Oza (captain), Al Maseera Jahangir, Emily Thomas, Heena Hotchandani, Indhuja Nandakumar, Katie Thompson, Lavanya Keny, Mehak Thakur, Michelle Botha, Rinitha Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Siya Gokhale, Sashikala Silva, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish (wicketkeeper) Udeni Kuruppuarachchige, Vaishnave Mahesh.
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – First ODI
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
Sreesanth's India bowling career
Tests 27, Wickets 87, Average 37.59, Best 5-40
ODIs 53, Wickets 75, Average 33.44, Best 6-55
T20Is 10, Wickets 7, Average 41.14, Best 2-12
The biog
Favourite Emirati dish: Fish machboos
Favourite spice: Cumin
Family: mother, three sisters, three brothers and a two-year-old daughter
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Other acts on the Jazz Garden bill
Sharrie Williams
The American singer is hugely respected in blues circles due to her passionate vocals and songwriting. Born and raised in Michigan, Williams began recording and touring as a teenage gospel singer. Her career took off with the blues band The Wiseguys. Such was the acclaim of their live shows that they toured throughout Europe and in Africa. As a solo artist, Williams has also collaborated with the likes of the late Dizzy Gillespie, Van Morrison and Mavis Staples.
Lin Rountree
An accomplished smooth jazz artist who blends his chilled approach with R‘n’B. Trained at the Duke Ellington School of the Arts in Washington, DC, Rountree formed his own band in 2004. He has also recorded with the likes of Kem, Dwele and Conya Doss. He comes to Dubai on the back of his new single Pass The Groove, from his forthcoming 2018 album Stronger Still, which may follow his five previous solo albums in cracking the top 10 of the US jazz charts.
Anita Williams
Dubai-based singer Anita Williams will open the night with a set of covers and swing, jazz and blues standards that made her an in-demand singer across the emirate. The Irish singer has been performing in Dubai since 2008 at venues such as MusicHall and Voda Bar. Her Jazz Garden appearance is career highlight as she will use the event to perform the original song Big Blue Eyes, the single from her debut solo album, due for release soon.
Countries recognising Palestine
France, UK, Canada, Australia, Portugal, Belgium, Malta, Luxembourg, San Marino and Andorra
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine 60kwh FWD
Battery Rimac 120kwh Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide (LiNiMnCoO2) chemistry
Power 204hp Torque 360Nm
Price, base / as tested Dh174,500
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MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre, twin-turbo V8
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 582bhp
Torque: 730Nm
Price: Dh649,000
On sale: now
The specs: 2018 Chevrolet Trailblazer
Price, base / as tested Dh99,000 / Dh132,000
Engine 3.6L V6
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Power 275hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 350Nm @ 3,700rpm
Fuel economy combined 12.2L / 100km
