Economic turbulence provides opportune time to administer painful remedies

Oil's continued decline appears to have given rise to a false dawn, a hope that somehow the West's insatiable demand and the East's unstoppable growth are going to suffer a significant and lasting decline. This doesn't square with the new optimism the dollar rally has sparked in US assets. What's even odder is how traders are interpreting this as positive for transportation stocks. If demand for oil is falling, it would be because people are travelling less, not returning to the skies. And if they're packing their bags, then oil prices should stop falling and start to rise. The long-term argument for high commodity prices holds. Certainly $150/barrel might be excessively high, but the sudden vacuum in oil seems equally irrational. The market has a short memory; it tends to focus on short-term developments, not the long-term economic shift. If anything, the continued erosion of credit argues for higher inflation and commodities prices as the value of money falls. Defaults continue to spread across different classes of credit products, the latest being securities backed by consumer loans and credit cards. At risk is a truly titanic number of credit derivatives held globally by a wide range of financial institutions. As the damage continues to ripple outward beyond the US, we will see fluctuations in currency values and shifts of money back into the US despite the dim outlook there. But these should not be mistaken for a reversal in the crisis itself. The only reliable indicator that health is being restored to the credit market would be shrinking default swaps and lower volatility. As far as I can tell, that is a long way off. Some economists argue that we are in for a global recession in 2009. But even that gloomy prognosis recognises that the emerging markets will still manage growth of six per cent and better. Economists parsing China's export data say it they are not seeing the much ballyhooed slowdown in the country's output. We may see the decouplers regain confidence by year's end if that's the case. So what's going to happen? As best as I can tell from contending theories, odds are best for emerging markets and the Gulf to suffer significantly slower growth and a painful tightening of credit. But this does not mean they will slip into recession. Rather, the internal dynamism of their economies and the emergence of their middle class will continue to lead them forward at a slower rate of growth into 2010. Just how well they can weather the storm, and how healthy they'll emerge, will depend on using this period as the catalyst to adopt painful and sometimes destabilising reforms, both to their currency regimes, to subsidies and incentives. If done right, this should shake the economic establishment to its core. The risk is that these transformations, and tougher economic conditions overall, heighten political pressure. The risks of event shocks like Russia's attack of Georgia, remain high. @Email:warnold@thenational.ae

Common OCD symptoms and how they manifest

Checking: the obsession or thoughts focus on some harm coming from things not being as they should, which usually centre around the theme of safety. For example, the obsession is “the building will burn down”, therefore the compulsion is checking that the oven is switched off.

Contamination: the obsession is focused on the presence of germs, dirt or harmful bacteria and how this will impact the person and/or their loved ones. For example, the obsession is “the floor is dirty; me and my family will get sick and die”, the compulsion is repetitive cleaning.

Orderliness: the obsession is a fear of sitting with uncomfortable feelings, or to prevent harm coming to oneself or others. Objectively there appears to be no logical link between the obsession and compulsion. For example,” I won’t feel right if the jars aren’t lined up” or “harm will come to my family if I don’t line up all the jars”, so the compulsion is therefore lining up the jars.

Intrusive thoughts: the intrusive thought is usually highly distressing and repetitive. Common examples may include thoughts of perpetrating violence towards others, harming others, or questions over one’s character or deeds, usually in conflict with the person’s true values. An example would be: “I think I might hurt my family”, which in turn leads to the compulsion of avoiding social gatherings.

Hoarding: the intrusive thought is the overvaluing of objects or possessions, while the compulsion is stashing or hoarding these items and refusing to let them go. For example, “this newspaper may come in useful one day”, therefore, the compulsion is hoarding newspapers instead of discarding them the next day.

Source: Dr Robert Chandler, clinical psychologist at Lighthouse Arabia

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Key facilities

Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
Premier League-standard football pitch
400m Olympic running track
NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
600-seat auditorium
Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
Specialist robotics and science laboratories
AR and VR-enabled learning centres
Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills

APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)

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In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter

Price: From Dh2,099

The smuggler

Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.

Khouli conviction

Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.

For sale

A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.

- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico

- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000

- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950