Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, had for months put off any official discussion over the path of quantitative easing beyond 2017. Michael Probst / AP
Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, had for months put off any official discussion over the path of quantitative easing beyond 2017. Michael Probst / AP

Business

ECB maintains asset purcahses at €60bn a month until December

The bank also keeps interest rates unchanged

Bloomberg

September 07, 2017

The European Central Bank opted to keep its stimulus settings unchanged for now as officials started cautiously sketching out the future of their quantitative-easing (QE) program.

Policy makers maintained asset purchases at  €60 billion a month until December, and reiterated their pledge to increase the size or duration if the economy worsens.They left interest rates unchanged and repeated that they expect borrowing costs to stay at present levels until well past the end of net asset buying.

ECB President Mario Draghi had for months put off any official discussion over the path of QE beyond 2017, amid concerns over low inflation and the potential market disruption at any hint of an exit. That changed this week; Governing Council members were presented with documents exploring scenarios including different combinations for the volume and length of asset purchases, according to euro- area officials familiar with the matter. The euro pared its gains after the decision, and traded up 0.5 per cent at US$1.1973 at 1:47 p.m.

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The ECB will have spent almost  €2.3 trillion on debt by the end of the year, and the currency bloc’s broadening recovery has spurred calls for monetary support to be pared back. The challenge is to provide assurance that the process, whenever it starts, will be gradual. The next policy meeting is scheduled for Oct. 26.

“October is probably a sweet spot for them to announce tapering, because you then tell market participants early enough and you give the people, who deal with the nitty gritty of the purchase program enough time to prepare for a start in January," Elga Bartsch, chief European economist at Morgan Stanley in London, said before the decision.

Some policy makers are especially concerned about a potential overshoot of the euro, which is up more than 13 per cent against the dollar this year and last month climbed above $1.20 for the first time since the ECB announced the launch of QE two and a half years ago.

While governors including Germany’s Jens Weidmann, Austria’s Ewald Nowotny and Estonia’s Ardo Hansson have played down those concerns, saying the gains largely reflect the euro-area’s improving economy, most economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect Mr  Draghi to address the topic at his press conference.

Draghi will also unveil updated economic forecasts that will probably highlight the main conundrum facing the ECB. While the euro zone is poised for the fastest economic expansion in a decade and unemployment is falling, inflation continues to fall short of the goal of just under 2 per cent.

ECB staff have revised up their 2017 growth forecast and slightly lowered their inflation outlook for 2018 and 2019, according to a euro-area official familiar with a draft document distributed to national central banks. The previous projections in June foresaw growth of 1.9 per cent this year, with inflation of 1.3 per cent in 2018 and 1.6 per cent in 2019.

The slowness of consumer-price growth may give Mr Draghi cause to wait as long as possible. Another reason to hold off is that the US Federal Reserve, in the end-game for its own QE program, is expected to announce later this month how it’ll unwind its balance sheet. That could have an impact on bond yields and exchange rates.

At the same time, some economists have noted that unless the ECB starts reducing its monthly purchases, it’ll soon run into a shortage of debt to buy.

“The house view is for euro/dollar to break $1.20 today as this seems to be the inevitable direction of travel,” Viraj Patel, currency strategist at ING Bank in London, said in a note before the ECB decision. “However, the extent of the move above here, and whether we can stay there, will depend on the rhetoric of Mario Draghi.”

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

The Perfect Couple

Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor

Creator: Jenna Lamia

Rating: 3/5

Baftas 2020 winners

BEST FILM

  • 1917 - Pippa Harris, Callum McDougall, Sam Mendes, Jayne-Ann Tenggren
  • THE IRISHMAN - Robert De Niro, Jane Rosenthal, Martin Scorsese, Emma Tillinger Koskoff
  • JOKER - Bradley Cooper, Todd Phillips, Emma Tillinger Koskoff
  • ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh, Quentin Tarantino
  • PARASITE - Bong Joon-ho, Kwak Sin-ae

DIRECTOR

  • 1917 - Sam Mendes
  • THE IRISHMAN - Martin Scorsese
  • JOKER - Todd Phillips
  • ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Quentin Tarantino
  • PARASITE - Bong Joon-ho

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM

  • 1917 - Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Callum McDougall, Jayne-Ann Tenggren, Krysty Wilson-Cairns
  • BAIT - Mark Jenkin, Kate Byers, Linn Waite
  • FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts
  • ROCKETMAN - Dexter Fletcher, Adam Bohling, David Furnish, David Reid, Matthew Vaughn, Lee Hall
  • SORRY WE MISSED YOU  - Ken Loach, Rebecca O’Brien, Paul Laverty
  • THE TWO POPES - Fernando Meirelles, Jonathan Eirich, Dan Lin, Tracey Seaward, Anthony McCarten

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE

  • THE FAREWELL - Lulu Wang, Daniele Melia
  • FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts
  • PAIN AND GLORY - Pedro Almodóvar, Agustín Almodóvar
  • PARASITE - Bong Joon-ho
  • PORTRAIT OF A LADY ON FIRE - Céline Sciamma, Bénédicte Couvreur

LEADING ACTRESS

  • JESSIE BUCKLEY - Wild Rose
  • SCARLETT JOHANSSON - Marriage Story
  • SAOIRSE RONAN - Little Women
  • CHARLIZE THERON - Bombshell
  • RENÉE ZELLWEGER - Judy

LEADING ACTOR

  • LEONARDO DICAPRIO - Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood
  • ADAM DRIVER - Marriage Story
  • TARON EGERTON - Rocketman
  • JOAQUIN PHOENIX - Joker
  • JONATHAN PRYCE - The Two Popes

SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • TOM HANKS - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
  • ANTHONY HOPKINS - The Two Popes
  • AL PACINO - The Irishman
  • JOE PESCI - The Irishman
  • BRAD PITT - Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • LAURA DERN - Marriage Story
  • SCARLETT JOHANSSON - Jojo Rabbit
  • FLORENCE PUGH - Little Women
  • MARGOT ROBBIE - Bombshell
  • MARGOT ROBBIE - Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • THE IRISHMAN - Steven Zaillian
  • JOJO RABBIT - Taika Waititi
  • JOKER - Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
  • LITTLE WOMEN - Greta Gerwig
  • THE TWO POPES - Anthony McCarten

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • BOOKSMART - Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Katie Silberman
  • KNIVES OUT - Rian Johnson
  • MARRIAGE STORY - Noah Baumbach
  • ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Quentin Tarantino
  • PARASITE - Han Jin Won, Bong Joon ho

DOCUMENTARY

  • AMERICAN FACTORY - Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert
  • APOLLO 11 - Todd Douglas Miller
  • DIEGO MARADONA - Asif Kapadia
  • FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts
  • THE GREAT HACK - Karim Amer, Jehane Noujaime

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER

  • BAIT - Mark Jenkin (Writer/Director), Kate Byers, Linn Waite (Producers)
  • FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab (Director/Producer), Edward Watts (Director)
  • MAIDEN - Alex Holmes (Director)
  • ONLY YOU - Harry Wootliff (Writer/Director)
  • RETABLO - Álvaro Delgado-Aparicio (Writer/Director)

ANIMATED FILM

  • FROZEN 2 - Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho
  • KLAUS - Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh
  • A SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE: FARMAGEDDON - Will Becher, Richard Phelan, Paul Kewley
  • TOY STORY 4 - Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen

CASTING

  • JOKER - Shayna Markowitz
  • MARRIAGE STORY - Douglas Aibel, Francine Maisler
  • ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Victoria Thomas
  • THE PERSONAL HISTORY OF DAVID COPPERFIELD - Sarah Crowe
  • THE TWO POPES - Nina Gold

EE RISING STAR AWARD (voted for by the public)

  • AWKWAFINA
  • JACK LOWDEN
  • KAITLYN DEVER
  • KELVIN HARRISON JR.
  • MICHEAL WARD

CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • 1917 - Roger Deakins
  • THE IRISHMAN - Rodrigo Prieto
  • JOKER - Lawrence Sher
  • LE MANS ’66 - Phedon Papamichael
  • THE LIGHTHOUSE - Jarin Blaschke

EDITING

  • THE IRISHMAN - Thelma Schoonmaker
  • JOJO RABBIT - Tom Eagles
  • JOKER - Jeff Groth
  • LE MANS ’66 - Andrew Buckland, Michael McCusker
  • ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Fred Raskin

COSTUME DESIGN

  • THE IRISHMAN - Christopher Peterson, Sandy Powell
  • JOJO RABBIT - Mayes C. Rubeo
  • JUDY - Jany Temime
  • LITTLE WOMEN - Jacqueline Durran
  • ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Arianne Phillips

PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • 1917 - Dennis Gassner, Lee Sandales
  • THE IRISHMAN - Bob Shaw, Regina Graves
  • JOJO RABBIT - Ra Vincent, Nora Sopková
  • JOKER - Mark Friedberg, Kris Moran
  • ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Barbara Ling, Nancy Haigh

SOUND

  • 1917 - Scott Millan, Oliver Tarney, Rachael Tate, Mark Taylor, Stuart Wilson
  • JOKER - Tod Maitland, Alan Robert Murray, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic
  • LE MANS ’66 - David Giammarco, Paul Massey, Steven A. Morrow, Donald Sylvester
  • ROCKETMAN - Matthew Collinge, John Hayes, Mike Prestwood Smith, Danny Sheehan
  • STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - David Acord, Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio, Stuart Wilson, Matthew Wood

ORIGINAL SCORE

  • 1917 - Thomas Newman
  • JOJO RABBIT - Michael Giacchino
  • JOKER - Hildur Guđnadóttir
  • LITTLE WOMEN - Alexandre Desplat
  • STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - John Williams

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

  • 1917 - Greg Butler, Guillaume Rocheron, Dominic Tuohy
  • AVENGERS: ENDGAME - Dan Deleeuw, Dan Sudick
  • THE IRISHMAN - Leandro Estebecorena, Stephane Grabli, Pablo Helman
  • THE LION KING - Andrew R. Jones, Robert Legato, Elliot Newman, Adam Valdez
  • STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - Roger Guyett, Paul Kavanagh, Neal Scanlan, Dominic Tuohy

MAKE UP & HAIR

  • 1917 - Naomi Donne
  • BOMBSHELL - Vivian Baker, Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan
  • JOKER - Kay Georgiou, Nicki Ledermann
  • JUDY - Jeremy Woodhead
  • ROCKETMAN - Lizzie Yianni Georgiou

BRITISH SHORT FILM

  • AZAAR - Myriam Raja, Nathanael Baring
  • GOLDFISH - Hector Dockrill, Harri Kamalanathan, Benedict Turnbull, Laura Dockrill
  • KAMALI - Sasha Rainbow, Rosalind Croad
  • LEARNING TO SKATEBOARD IN A WARZONE (IF YOU’RE A GIRL) - Carol Dysinger, Elena Andreicheva
  • THE TRAP - Lena Headey, Anthony Fitzgerald

BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION

  • GRANDAD WAS A ROMANTIC - Maryam Mohajer
  • IN HER BOOTS - Kathrin Steinbacher
  • THE MAGIC BOAT  - Naaman Azh
A MINECRAFT MOVIE

Director: Jared Hess

Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa

Rating: 3/5

The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Power: 510hp at 9,000rpm
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
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Price: From Dh801,800
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Dubai Bling season three

Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed 

Rating: 1/5

How Filipinos in the UAE invest

A recent survey of 10,000 Filipino expatriates in the UAE found that 82 per cent have plans to invest, primarily in property. This is significantly higher than the 2014 poll showing only two out of 10 Filipinos planned to invest.

Fifty-five percent said they plan to invest in property, according to the poll conducted by the New Perspective Media Group, organiser of the Philippine Property and Investment Exhibition. Acquiring a franchised business or starting up a small business was preferred by 25 per cent and 15 per cent said they will invest in mutual funds. The rest said they are keen to invest in insurance (3 per cent) and gold (2 per cent).

Of the 5,500 respondents who preferred property as their primary investment, 54 per cent said they plan to make the purchase within the next year. Manila was the top location, preferred by 53 per cent.

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NO OTHER LAND

Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal

Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham

Rating: 3.5/5