Dubai's retail sector shows positive signs of growth, according to Emirates NBD's latest economy tracker. Pawan Singh / The National
Dubai's retail sector shows positive signs of growth, according to Emirates NBD's latest economy tracker. Pawan Singh / The National

Dubai's non-oil economy slips in September but growth continues



A key gauge of Dubai's non-oil economy slipped slightly in September but still indicated growth in-line with the survey's historical average.

The Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker Index dropped to 55.2 in September from 56.3 in August. A reading of below 50 indicates that the non-oil private sector economy is in decline while a reading above 50 suggests that it is expanding.

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"The September survey points to a continued solid expansion in Dubai's economy, with retail and wholesale, trade and construction data particularly encouraging," said Khatija Haque, head of Middle East and North Africa Research at Emirates NBD.

"Year to date, the Dubai Economy Tracker index has averaged 56.3, markedly higher than the average for the same period last year, which supports our view that Dubai's GDP growth is likely to accelerate this year."

Jobs continued to be created in September for the seventh straight month, according to the survey, as companies hired more staff at the fastest pace since April. Despite that, the rate of growth of new jobs was below the survey's historical average.

Those who were polled for the survey reported growth of new business for the nineteenth straight month, citing improving economic conditions and better marketing techniques.

When it came to input costs, those polled indicated that input price inflation eased in September.

The UAE’s non-oil economy, which has been subject to lower growth in recent years, is set to get a boost from a pick-up in government spending ahead of Expo 2020.

Economists also say that an improvement in the global economy is aiding tourism and real estate. The global economy is forecast to grow 3.5 per cent this year before accelerating to 3.7 per cent in 2018, the best rate since 2011, according to the OECD.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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