DALIAN, China // Asia appears to have avoided the worst of the global financial crisis and seems well on the path toward recovery, but some nagging doubts remain.
Among them are growing trade protectionism, an addiction to exports and an end to the easy money that fuelled growth.
"Asia has become more unbalanced," says Stephen Roach, the chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. Its strategies for fighting off the crisis have succeeded in boosting growth, but have increased its vulnerability to export demand in the West rather than reversing a tendency among Asian consumers to save rather than spend. "The missing link is social safety nets," Mr Roach said.
He and the 1,299 others at the World Economic Forum event offered a brighter outlook than last year when the failure of Lehman Brothers touched off the crisis.
Now the risks appear to have been reduced by massive and co-ordinated action by governments and central banks. And Asia's apparent recovery augurs well for the Gulf, which may benefit from increased trade and tourism.
Risks persist, but no longer appear as dire. Protectionism remains a problem, panelists said, but it had become much less threatening than once feared.
At the centre of the optimism was China, as Beijing has managed to restore growth to 8 per cent and higher with huge government spending. This 4 trillion yuan (Dh2.15tn) of fiscal stimulus also sparked an explosion in bank lending, most of which has gone into infrastructure.
That, according to Mr Roach and others, has only increased overcapacity in Chinese manufacturing, making it even more reliant on foreign demand. And China's consumers are investing in local stocks and property, creating what many fear are dangerous asset price bubbles.
Beijing remains one of the biggest sceptics. "China's economic rebound is unstable, unbalanced and fragmented," Wen Jiabao, the premier of China, told participants in an address opening the meeting. "We cannot and will not change the direction of our policies before conditions are right."
China's problems mirror those elsewhere, where governments have used enormous government borrowing and spending to counter the crisis.
The challenge now, economists say, will be how to remove state spending and allow the economy to stand on its own.
warnold@thenational.ae
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
City's slump
L - Juventus, 2-0
D - C Palace, 2-2
W - N Forest, 3-0
L - Liverpool, 2-0
D - Feyenoord, 3-3
L - Tottenham, 4-0
L - Brighton, 2-1
L - Sporting, 4-1
L - Bournemouth, 2-1
L - Tottenham, 2-1
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
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88 Video's most popular rentals
Avengers 3: Infinity War: an American superhero film released in 2018 and based on the Marvel Comics story.
Sholay: a 1975 Indian action-adventure film. It follows the adventures of two criminals hired by police to catch a vagabond. The film was panned on release but is now considered a classic.
Lucifer: is a 2019 Malayalam-language action film. It dives into the gritty world of Kerala’s politics and has become one of the highest-grossing Malayalam films of all time.
Past winners of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
2016 Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes-GP)
2015 Nico Rosberg (Mercedes-GP)
2014 Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes-GP)
2013 Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull Racing)
2012 Kimi Raikkonen (Lotus)
2011 Lewis Hamilton (McLaren)
2010 Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull Racing)
2009 Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull Racing)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Tuesday's fixtures
Kyrgyzstan v Qatar, 5.45pm
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Boston%20Strangler
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Kibsons%20Cares
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South Africa's T20 squad
Duminy (c), Behardien, Dala, De Villiers, Hendricks, Jonker, Klaasen (wkt), Miller, Morris, Paterson, Phangiso, Phehlukwayo, Shamsi, Smuts.
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The specs
Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 400hp
Torque: 475Nm
Transmission: 9-speed automatic
Price: From Dh215,900
On sale: Now
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