Coils at the steel producer Salzgitter in Germany. The EU has won a reprieve from US tariffs. Markus Schreiber/AP
Coils at the steel producer Salzgitter in Germany. The EU has won a reprieve from US tariffs. Markus Schreiber/AP

Don’t rule out EU-US trade renegotiations after Trump’s tariff ‘threats’



At the start of this month US President Donald Trump announced he would impose import tariffs on steel and aluminium.

Many domestic industries and businesses seemed bewildered, and expressed concern that this would artificially inflate prices for such a key raw material.

And in the ensuing fortnight, America's trading allies overseas desperately - and fruitlessly - sought clarity from the Trump administration about the applicability of these tariffs, and the process for winning possible exemptions.

I spent much of that period in Brussels, where the prospect of a 25 per cent tariff on European-produced steel had prompted an admixture of consternation, confusion and ultimately frustration among executives, national ministers and EU policymakers. The bloc's trade commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom posited that the proposals amounted to "threats" and "bullying" and ultimately flew to Washington to argue with her American counterparts that the US pretext for imposing the tariffs - national security - was without merit given the depth and strength of the transatlantic alliance.
It soon became clear to European officials that there was no formaliaed path to winning exemption, besides aggressive, public push-back and a certain amount of horse-trading behind closed doors.

Eventually, the European Commission's arguments seemed to pay off, and at the very last minute EU steel exports were exempt, alongside those from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and South Korea. This meant that as of Friday morning about two-thirds of the world's steel production could still land at America's ports without facing any fresh duties. It was unclear what impact such a comparatively minor measure of protection for domestic production could in turn have on American firms that Mr Trump had long championed. US Steel, for instance, had envisaged the creation of 500 new jobs soon after the initial tariffs were announced, claiming it would allow it by late summer to reopen a blast furnace and part of a shuttered steelmaking plant in Illinois. If domestic prices for steel did not improve significantly, the margin arguments for that capital investment might vanish.

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Read more:

China hits back at Trump tariffs as trade war finally arrives

UAE seeks exemption from US steel and aluminium tariffs

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However, in a typically “Trumpian” move designed to retain White House leverage (compare the regularly reoccurring threat to decertify Iran's compliance with the Obama-era nuclear pact every six months), even the exemptions for allies were announced as temporary, with a May 1 expiration date.

Over the weekend the South Koreans seemingly judged they had bigger fish to fry, given Washington's apparent willingness to engage in talks with Pyongyang to end the North's nuclear weapons programme. And so Seoul - the world's third-largest exporter of steel to the United States - has agreed to reduce those exports by 30 per cent, essentially agreeing to a quota in return for an indefinite exemption from tariffs.

Mr Trump had previously critiqued a US trade deal with South Korea. Now it seems he has managed to force through alterations to the agreement known as KORUS, including improved albeit largely hypothetical access for US car makers to South Korean consumers, after threatening tariffs that many trade experts believe fall foul of WTO rules. For a multilateral system this of course constitutes a bad precedent, and even the South Korean trade minister said he foresees further trade risks so long as Mr Trump remains in the Oval Office.
All of this will be instructive for Europe, where leaders such as Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, have said the American government would not force the trading bloc back to the table to renegotiate trade agreements through blackmail. Mr Macron, Germany's Angela Merkel and Ms Malmstrom have all said Europe would be more than happy to participate in trade-related discussions with Washington that are conducted in good faith, and in accordance with WTO rules. But the bloc would not do so  - in the words of the French leader last week in Brussels - "with a gun pointed at our head".

But, given Mr Trump's previous criticism of the trade "imbalance" between the US and Europe, and his focus on the behaviour of, for instance, German car makers, we should not be surprised if US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross seek to reopen discussions about specific European export products.

China, which now faces more than $60 billion of separate US tariffs and has finally announced its own response to the steel tariffs, is clearly an entirely separate story, and perhaps the one that market participants will follow most closely of all.

Willem Marx is a reporter for CNBC International

The National and CNBC International are global content sharing partners.

The White Lotus: Season three

Creator: Mike White

Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell

Rating: 4.5/5

Spain drain

CONVICTED

Lionel Messi Found guilty in 2016 of of using companies in Belize, Britain, Switzerland and Uruguay to avoid paying €4.1m in taxes on income earned from image rights. Sentenced to 21 months in jail and fined more than €2m. But prison sentence has since been replaced by another fine of €252,000.

Javier Mascherano Accepted one-year suspended sentence in January 2016 for tax fraud after found guilty of failing to pay €1.5m in taxes for 2011 and 2012. Unlike Messi he avoided trial by admitting to tax evasion.

Angel di Maria Argentina and Paris Saint-Germain star Angel di Maria was fined and given a 16-month prison sentence for tax fraud during his time at Real Madrid. But he is unlikely to go to prison as is normal in Spain for first offences for non-violent crimes carrying sentence of less than two years.

 

SUSPECTED

Cristiano Ronaldo Real Madrid's star striker, accused of evading €14.7m in taxes, appears in court on Monday. Portuguese star faces four charges of fraud through offshore companies.

Jose Mourinho Manchester United manager accused of evading €3.3m in tax in 2011 and 2012, during time in charge at Real Madrid. But Gestifute, which represents him, says he has already settled matter with Spanish tax authorities.

Samuel Eto'o In November 2016, Spanish prosecutors sought jail sentence of 10 years and fines totalling €18m for Cameroonian, accused of failing to pay €3.9m in taxes during time at Barcelona from 2004 to 2009.

Radamel Falcao Colombian striker Falcao suspected of failing to correctly declare €7.4m of income earned from image rights between 2012 and 2013 while at Atletico Madrid. He has since paid €8.2m to Spanish tax authorities, a sum that includes interest on the original amount.

Jorge Mendes Portuguese super-agent put under official investigation last month by Spanish court investigating alleged tax evasion by Falcao, a client of his. He defended himself, telling closed-door hearing he "never" advised players in tax matters.

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UPI facts

More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions

Rafael Nadal's record at the MWTC

2009 Finalist

2010 Champion

Jan 2011 Champion

Dec 2011 Semi-finalist

Dec 2012 Did not play

Dec 2013 Semi-finalist

2015 Semi-finalist

Jan 2016 Champion

Dec 2016 Champion

2017 Did not play

 

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Company%20Profile
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The rules on fostering in the UAE

A foster couple or family must:

  • be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
  • not be younger than 25 years old
  • not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
  • be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
  • have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
  • undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
  • A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets

The Dark Blue Winter Overcoat & Other Stories From the North
Edited and Introduced by Sjón and Ted Hodgkinson
Pushkin Press 

Election pledges on migration

CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections" 

SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom" 

RESULTS

1.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,400m
Winner: Dirilis Ertugrul, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Ismail Mohammed (trainer)
2.15pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,400m
Winner: Kidd Malibu, Sandro Paiva, Musabah Al Muhairi
2.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,000m
Winner: Raakezz, Tadhg O’Shea, Nicholas Bachalard
3.15pm: Handicap Dh105,000 1,200m
Winner: Au Couer, Sean Kirrane, Satish Seemar
3.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m
Winner: Rayig, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
4.15pm: Handicap Dh105,000 1,600m
Winner: Chiefdom, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
4.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,800m
Winner: King’s Shadow, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar

Real estate tokenisation project

Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.

The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.

Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.

RESULT

RS Leipzig 3 

Marcel Sabitzer 10', 21'

Emil Forsberg 87'

Tottenham 0

 

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