I realised I had to get out of the oil business the day in 1991 a broker threatened to have me killed.
The smooth delivery of the message, over a drink in a bar in Wimbledon, did nothing to obscure its crudeness. Either you stop increasing the price of jet fuel in your daily price assessments, the broker told me, or you should be careful how you cross the road.
I had reasons to believe it was not an entirely idle threat. Only weeks before, I had received a call from Scotland Yard following a trail of numbers from the mobile phone of a Russian oil trader who had spoken to me hours before he was murdered near Paddington Station.
It was my first job in journalism and frankly, for US$2,000 (Dh7,346) a month, I was beginning to wonder if it was worth it.
The purpose of the tale is to illustrate how peripheral, discretionary factors can interfere in the process when the price of a strategic commodity is decided by one individual.
In the old days, prices would have been set by direct negotiations between producers and users of oil. At the end of the 19th century, such talks involved one department of John D Rockefeller's Standard Oil and another. They manipulated prices to ensure that any competitors who dared to offer an alternative were driven out of business.
When the oil trade shifted to the Middle East, the talks engaged Gulf sheikhs and their western partners who also ran global refineries. Gradually the balance of power shifted to the Gulf capitals as endowed nations exerted their sovereign powers over their resources. Then in the 1980s, futures markets took over, at least for sales of Middle Eastern crude to Europe and America. In Asia, because there was no liquid futures market, the two sides agreed to use prices in trade publications like the one that once paid my wages.
My job back was billed as a reporting role, but it centred on publishing daily price assessments that were used by the oil industry as a benchmark for their long-term supply contracts. Globally, the contracts for a myriad of different crude oil grades and fuel qualities were worth billions of dollars, so every small change in my assessments could make or break oil buyers, traders and exporters alike.
The broker's problem was that the prices I set for cargoes of jet fuel exported from North African producers in the Mediterranean were losing his client a lot of money.
I had recently made changes to the way I assessed the market for jet fuel, stripping out a fat margin that traders had incorporated into their assumptions.
There was no doubt I was doing the right thing, and the oil exporting nations were an unwitting beneficiary of the move. But it was hard to swallow for the middlemen who had locked in millions of dollars in premiums on the basis that my discounts would continue to give them a lift.
Removing such extraneous factors from the pricing of Gulf oil exports is what Thomas Leaver, the chief executive of the Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME), hopes to do with his Oman crude oil futures contract.
Having previously worked as a trader for Finland's largest oil company, Neste, he is well aware of the dangers of allowing a 24-year-old reporter to set world oil prices.
Now he is hoping to persuade state oil companies in the Gulf to switch to his Oman crude oil futures contract as the basis for their exports to Asia.
The advantages of the DME futures contract as a benchmark are obvious. It is anonymous, available worldwide through an electronic trading system and open 23 hours a day. Liquidity on the DME still trails the more established exchanges in London or New York, but it already attracts hundreds of times more trade than the physical market where trade publications make their assessments.
Moreover, Mr Leaver says an historical analysis shows that the price of oil on the DME is higher, on average, than the price quoted by the trade press. This means Gulf exporters are losing out.
I cannot say I am surprised by the findings.
If oil exporters do not want to negotiate prices directly with their customers as they used to in times gone by, then a futures market undoubtedly represents a better deal than the alternative.
And reporters like me can relax in the cafes of the DIFC without fearing for our lives.
@Email:tashby@thenational.ae
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Iran's dirty tricks to dodge sanctions
There’s increased scrutiny on the tricks being used to keep commodities flowing to and from blacklisted countries. Here’s a description of how some work.
1 Going Dark
A common method to transport Iranian oil with stealth is to turn off the Automatic Identification System, an electronic device that pinpoints a ship’s location. Known as going dark, a vessel flicks the switch before berthing and typically reappears days later, masking the location of its load or discharge port.
2. Ship-to-Ship Transfers
A first vessel will take its clandestine cargo away from the country in question before transferring it to a waiting ship, all of this happening out of sight. The vessels will then sail in different directions. For about a third of Iranian exports, more than one tanker typically handles a load before it’s delivered to its final destination, analysts say.
3. Fake Destinations
Signaling the wrong destination to load or unload is another technique. Ships that intend to take cargo from Iran may indicate their loading ports in sanction-free places like Iraq. Ships can keep changing their destinations and end up not berthing at any of them.
4. Rebranded Barrels
Iranian barrels can also be rebranded as oil from a nation free from sanctions such as Iraq. The countries share fields along their border and the crude has similar characteristics. Oil from these deposits can be trucked out to another port and documents forged to hide Iran as the origin.
* Bloomberg
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
'Skin'
Dir: Guy Nattiv
Starring: Jamie Bell, Danielle McDonald, Bill Camp, Vera Farmiga
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
STAGE%201%20RESULTS
%3Cp%3E1)%20Tim%20Merlier%20(Soudal-Quick-Step)%2C%203h%2017%E2%80%99%2035%E2%80%9D%3Cbr%3E2)%20Caleb%20Ewan%20(Lotto%20Dstny)%20same%20time%3Cbr%3E3)%20Mark%20Cavendish%20(Astana%20Qazaqstan%20Team)%20same%20time%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EGeneral%20Classification%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1)%20Tim%20Merlier%20(Soudal%20Quick-Step)%203%3A17%3A25%3Cbr%3E2%20-%20Caleb%20Ewan%20(Lotto%20Dstny)%20%2B4%22%3Cbr%3E3%20-%20Luke%20Plapp%20(Ineos%20Grenadiers)%20%2B5%22%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 240hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 390Nm at 3,000rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh122,745
On sale: now
Sun jukebox
Rufus Thomas, Bear Cat (The Answer to Hound Dog) (1953)
This rip-off of Leiber/Stoller’s early rock stomper brought a lawsuit against Phillips and necessitated Presley’s premature sale to RCA.
Elvis Presley, Mystery Train (1955)
The B-side of Presley’s final single for Sun bops with a drummer-less groove.
Johnny Cash and the Tennessee Two, Folsom Prison Blues (1955)
Originally recorded for Sun, Cash’s signature tune was performed for inmates of the titular prison 13 years later.
Carl Perkins, Blue Suede Shoes (1956)
Within a month of Sun’s February release Elvis had his version out on RCA.
Roy Orbison, Ooby Dooby (1956)
An essential piece of irreverent juvenilia from Orbison.
Jerry Lee Lewis, Great Balls of Fire (1957)
Lee’s trademark anthem is one of the era’s best-remembered – and best-selling – songs.
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup – Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
The specs: 2019 Mercedes-Benz GLE
Price, base / as tested Dh274,000 (estimate)
Engine 3.0-litre inline six-cylinder
Gearbox Nine-speed automatic
Power 245hp @ 4,200rpm
Torque 500Nm @ 1,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined 6.4L / 100km
FIXTURES
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Friday
Saint-Etienne v Montpellier (10.45pm)
Saturday
Monaco v Caen (7pm)
Amiens v Bordeaux (10pm)
Angers v Toulouse (10pm)
Metz v Dijon (10pm)
Nantes v Guingamp (10pm)
Rennes v Lille (10pm)
Sunday
Nice v Strasbourg (5pm)
Troyes v Lyon (7pm)
Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain (11pm)
Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
- Stay invested: Time in the market, not timing the market, is critical to long-term gains.
- Rational thinking: Breathe and avoid emotional decision-making; let logic and planning guide your actions.
- Strategic patience: Understand why you’re investing and allow time for your strategies to unfold.