Disaster recovery theories don't take the human spirit into account



When it comes to economies recovering from disasters, there seems to be two contrasting schools of thought.

One states that sudden, unexpected hits to productive capacity have a silver lining. Larry Summers, the former top economic adviser to Barack Obama, told CNBC last week that Japan's earthquake "may lead to some temporary increments, ironically, to GDP as a process of rebuilding takes place".

Mr Summers pointed to the 1995 Kobe earthquake, from which Japan actually gained economic strength. His argument is that reconstruction may not detract from an economy but could actually stimulate it.

There are many who might agree. A decisive, strategic rebuilding that radically upgrades the quality of capital stock may actually enhance long-term potential, especially when the replaced stock is old or outmoded.

But there is another view, that destruction can never be a source of profit or growth. The analogy used is that of the broken window. The spending needed to pay for it does not account for how that money could have been used if the window had not been broken.

This argument holds that Japan will not be better off for the rebuilding effort. Housing starts, as an example, will increase, but the housing stock will not.

The rebuilding of factories and office buildings are no different. In other words, the spending at best only takes you back to square one.

Whatever stance you take, the three recent disasters in the Asia-Pacific region will place very different burdens on their respective economies.

The Queensland floods in Australia can reasonably be expected to have less economic impact than the Christchurch and Sendai earthquakes.

Queensland also had a high degree of preparation in critical centres such as the Brisbane central business district. Sendai and Christ-church have not had this luxury.

There are also seasonal differences. The floods hit the state when economic activity was low. Many offices and factories were operating below capacity.

Christchurch was the opposite. The quake hit when seasonal activity was high. Japan was also accelerating its economy, after the Lunar New Year lull.

Many analysts are saying that despite the huge loss of life and economic activity in Sendai, and even despite the unknown nuclear threat, the longer-term impact will not be hugely disruptive.

Japan, as is well known, is a manufacturing powerhouse and a highly organised society. It may be possible to transfer manufacturing activity elsewhere in a way Christchurch and Queensland could not.

Queensland's farming industries were the most heavily affected and will take longer to regenerate. But the state's services industries were back in business within days, and the mining and logistics industries were only lightly affected.

Growth is expected to return to Queensland next quarter. Christ-church will also rebound, just behind Queensland, say Westpac Bank economists.

The big question has shifted to Sendai and greater Japan. Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University professor and a former chief economist at the IMF, said last week investors could not yet fathom how the crisis will spill over into other manufacturing sectors, damaging the global rebound.

"Japan being incapacitated by power outages and so on could have a multiplier effect throughout Asia," Prof Rogoff said.

Japan's already unsustainable public finances may be unable to cope with damage estimated at about ¥15 trillion (Dh689.24 billion), or 3 per cent of the country's GDP.

Japan specialises in products essential to industry almost everywhere.

It makes 40 per cent of global electronics parts, 19 per cent of semiconductors and 20 per cent of all technology products.

China relies heavily on Japanese imports, including capital goods and parts for manufacturing assembly, especially in electronics. The US imported $US124bn (Dh455.45bn) of merchandise from Japan last year, including cars, car parts, semiconductors and telecommunications equipment.

Japan is spending big. The Bank of Japan has continued to flood money markets with cash, bringing its total emergency funding to nearly $700bn as it tries to soothe fears about the economic impact of the earthquake, tsunami and unfolding nuclear crisis.

Whether you believe in the broken window scenario or the stimulus effect, perhaps post-war recoveries might point the way.

No economic model can account for people's determination. Recoveries, by their very nature, come down to a people's state of mind.

Real estate tokenisation project

Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.

The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.

Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.

The specs

Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel

Power: 579hp

Torque: 859Nm

Transmission: Single-speed automatic

Price: From Dh825,900

On sale: Now

The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young

Signs%20of%20%20%20%20%20%20%20heat%20stroke
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EThe%20loss%20of%20sodium%20chloride%20in%20our%20sweat%20can%20lead%20to%20confusion%20and%20an%20altered%20mental%20status%20and%20slurred%20speech%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EBody%20temperature%20above%2039%C2%B0C%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EHot%2C%20dry%20and%20red%20or%20damp%20skin%20can%20indicate%20heatstroke%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EA%20faster%20pulse%20than%20usual%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EDizziness%2C%20nausea%20and%20headaches%20are%20also%20signs%20of%20overheating%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EIn%20extreme%20cases%2C%20victims%20can%20lose%20consciousness%20and%20require%20immediate%20medical%20attention%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
GRAN%20TURISMO
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Neill%20Blomkamp%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20David%20Harbour%2C%20Orlando%20Bloom%2C%20Archie%20Madekwe%2C%20Darren%20Barnet%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Indoor Cricket World Cup

Venue Insportz, Dubai, September 16-23

UAE squad Saqib Nazir (captain), Aaqib Malik, Fahad Al Hashmi, Isuru Umesh, Nadir Hussain, Sachin Talwar, Nashwan Nasir, Prashath Kumara, Ramveer Rai, Sameer Nayyak, Umar Shah, Vikrant Shetty

DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE

Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman, Emma Corrin

Director: Shawn Levy

Rating: 3/5

Poacher
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERichie%20Mehta%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nimisha%20Sajayan%2C%20Roshan%20Mathew%2C%20Dibyendu%20Bhattacharya%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Engine: 80 kWh four-wheel-drive

Transmission: eight-speed automatic

Power: 402bhp

Torque: 760Nm

Price: From Dh280,000

How much sugar is in chocolate Easter eggs?
  • The 169g Crunchie egg has 15.9g of sugar per 25g serving, working out at around 107g of sugar per egg
  • The 190g Maltesers Teasers egg contains 58g of sugar per 100g for the egg and 19.6g of sugar in each of the two Teasers bars that come with it
  • The 188g Smarties egg has 113g of sugar per egg and 22.8g in the tube of Smarties it contains
  • The Milky Bar white chocolate Egg Hunt Pack contains eight eggs at 7.7g of sugar per egg
  • The Cadbury Creme Egg contains 26g of sugar per 40g egg
The smuggler

Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple. 
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.

Khouli conviction

Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.

For sale

A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.

- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico

- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000

- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950

The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Power: 510hp at 9,000rpm
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Price: From Dh801,800
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFeatherweight%20title%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAli%20Al%20Qaisi%20by%20Jesse%20Arnett%20by%20submission%2C%20round%203%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%20title%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EJosh%20Togo%20bt%20Tahir%20Abdullaev%20by%20unanimous%20decision%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFlyweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EIago%20Ribeiro%20bt%20Juan%20Puerta%20by%20unanimous%20decision%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMiddleweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EYerkin%20Darmen%20bt%20Tyler%20Ray%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%203%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAbdulla%20Al%20Bousheiri%20bt%20John%20Adajar%20by%20submission%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20232lb%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAsylzhan%20Bakhytzhanuly%20bt%20Hasan%20Yousefi%20by%20submission%2C%20round%202%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20176lb%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAlin%20Chirila%20bt%20Silas%20Robson%20by%20KO%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20176lb%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EArvin%20Chan%20bt%20Abdi%20Farah%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELightweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EOle-Jorgen%20Johnsen%20bt%20Nart%20Abida%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBantamweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EOtar%20Tanzilov%20bt%20Eduardo%20Dinis%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%203%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStrawweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EColine%20Biron%20bt%20Aysun%20Erge%20via%20submission%2C%20round%202%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESoslan%20Margiev%20bt%20Mathieu%20Rakotondrazanany%20by%20unanimous%20decision%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBantamweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EBakhromjon%20Ruziev%20bt%20Younes%20Chemali%20by%20majority%20decision%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting

2. Prayer

3. Hajj

4. Shahada

5. Zakat 

Film: In Syria
Dir: Philippe Van Leeuw
Starring: Hiam Abbass, Diamand Bo Abboud, Mohsen Abbas and Juliette Navis
Verdict: Four stars

The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Power: 268bhp / 536bhp
Torque: 343Nm / 686Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
On sale: Later this year
The National selections

Al Ain

5pm: Bolereau
5.30pm: Rich And Famous
6pm: Duc De Faust
6.30pm: Al Thoura​​​​​​​
7pm: AF Arrab​​​​​​​
7.30pm: Al Jazi​​​​​​​
8pm: Futoon

Jebel Ali

1.45pm: AF Kal Noor​​​​​​​
2.15pm: Galaxy Road
2.45pm: Dark Thunder
3.15pm: Inverleigh​​​​​​​
3.45pm: Bawaasil​​​​​​​
4.15pm: Initial
4.45pm: Tafaakhor

The biog

Age: 35

Inspiration: Wife and kids 

Favourite book: Changes all the time but my new favourite is Thinking, Fast and Slow  by Daniel Kahneman

Best Travel Destination: Bora Bora , French Polynesia 

Favourite run: Jabel Hafeet, I also enjoy running the 30km loop in Al Wathba cycling track

Company profile

Name:​ One Good Thing ​

Founders:​ Bridgett Lau and Micheal Cooke​

Based in:​ Dubai​​ 

Sector:​ e-commerce​

Size: 5​ employees

Stage: ​Looking for seed funding

Investors:​ ​Self-funded and seeking external investors

Company%20profile
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Company%20profile
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Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

The White Lotus: Season three

Creator: Mike White

Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell

Rating: 4.5/5

Places to go for free coffee
  • Cherish Cafe Dubai, Dubai Investment Park, are giving away free coffees all day. 
  • La Terrace, Four Points by Sheraton Bur Dubai, are serving their first 50 guests one coffee and four bite-sized cakes
  • Wild & The Moon will be giving away a free espresso with every purchase on International Coffee Day
  • Orange Wheels welcome parents are to sit, relax and enjoy goodies at ‘Café O’ along with a free coffee
Quick pearls of wisdom

Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”

Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.” 

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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreators%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAri%20Katcher%2C%20Ryan%20Welch%2C%20Ramy%20Youssef%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERamy%20Youssef%2C%20Amr%20Waked%2C%20Mohammed%20Amer%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A