The rising thirst for oil in emerging markets will keep supplies tight to the end of the year at least, Merrill Lynch said yesterday. A view that contradicts analyst predictions that shrinking demand in industrialised countries will see a continued decline in the price of crude. Experts are divided on how big an impact the fall in appetite for oil in the West and Japan - caused by an economic slowdown and the high price of oil itself - will have on the price. Merrill's findings contrast with the conclusions reached by Lehman Brothers analysts yesterday, who argued in their own report that oil prices have peaked for the next few years.
"Barring any physical disruption that may temporarily spike prices, we judge that oil prices have peaked," Lehman said. However, Merrill's report said others had recently overestimated the weight of traditional markets and underestimated the role that growing demand in emerging economies like China and India has on the oil price. The investment firm maintained its view that prices would hold at an average of US$124 per barrel in the third quarter of the year. "Even if US demand stays negative in 2008 and 2009, the rate of global oil demand growth will depend a lot more on EM [emerging market] economic growth than on North America over the next five years," the report said.
Oil demand in China and the Middle East has continued to rise amid high prices, in part because those countries shield their citizens from the record cost of oil with high energy subsidies. The authors of the Merrill Lynch report noted that consumption of cars and energy-intensive products in Asian countries continued to push up oil demand, despite signs that export-led growth in China may be starting to slow slightly.
"While the upside risks on prices may not be as acute as in the first half of 2008, we still believe that strong EM economic performance will keep oil markets relatively tight in the coming months," the report said. Expectations for strong demand are bolstered by the fact that the appetite for oil in emerging markets outside of the former Soviet Union has not fallen once in 40 years, the report noted. Several economic studies have previously found that the demand for oil in developing economies has been historically inelastic, meaning it is fairly unresponsive to price changes.
Underpinning this increase in oil demand is economic growth in countries like Brazil, China and India, which the authors attribute in large part to the expansion of credit and growth in money supply. The Merrill Lynch authors were less willing, however, to extend their bullish predictions beyond the end of the year, largely because of fears that turmoil in financial markets in the West could extend to emerging markets.
"We remain a bit more cautious about 2009," the report said. "We believe volatility will stay very high, and we see oil prices responding abruptly to changes in monetary policy around the world, particularly those coming from the Fed and the PBoC [People's Bank of China]." The price for September delivery of West Texas Intermediate crude fell $4.82 to close at $115.20 in New York on Friday. The contract reached a record price of $147.27 on July 11.
@Email:cstanton@thenational.ae
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
'My Son'
Director: Christian Carion
Starring: James McAvoy, Claire Foy, Tom Cullen, Gary Lewis
Rating: 2/5
Kamindu Mendis bio
Full name: Pasqual Handi Kamindu Dilanka Mendis
Born: September 30, 1998
Age: 20 years and 26 days
Nationality: Sri Lankan
Major teams Sri Lanka's Under 19 team
Batting style: Left-hander
Bowling style: Right-arm off-spin and slow left-arm orthodox (that's right!)
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
PSA DUBAI WORLD SERIES FINALS LINE-UP
Men’s:
Mohamed El Shorbagy (EGY)
Ali Farag (EGY)
Simon Rosner (GER)
Tarek Momen (EGY)
Miguel Angel Rodriguez (COL)
Gregory Gaultier (FRA)
Karim Abdel Gawad (EGY)
Nick Matthew (ENG)
Women's:
Nour El Sherbini (EGY)
Raneem El Welily (EGY)
Nour El Tayeb (EGY)
Laura Massaro (ENG)
Joelle King (NZE)
Camille Serme (FRA)
Nouran Gohar (EGY)
Sarah-Jane Perry (ENG)
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
SPEC SHEET
Display: 10.4-inch IPS LCD, 400 nits, toughened glass
CPU: Unisoc T610; Mali G52 GPU
Memory: 4GB
Storage: 64GB, up to 512GB microSD
Camera: 8MP rear, 5MP front
Connectivity: Wi-Fi, Bluetooth 5.0, USB-C, 3.5mm audio
Battery: 8200mAh, up to 10 hours video
Platform: Android 11
Audio: Stereo speakers, 2 mics
Durability: IP52
Biometrics: Face unlock
Price: Dh849
When is VAR used?
• Goals
• Penalty decisions
• Direct red-card incidents
• Mistaken identity
The specs: 2018 Kia Picanto
Price: From Dh39,500
Engine: 1.2L inline four-cylinder
Transmission: Four-speed auto
Power: 86hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 122Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.0L / 100km
Company%20Profile
TECH%20SPECS%3A%20APPLE%20WATCH%20SERIES%208
Jigra
Profile
Co-founders of the company: Vilhelm Hedberg and Ravi Bhusari
Launch year: In 2016 ekar launched and signed an agreement with Etihad Airways in Abu Dhabi. In January 2017 ekar launched in Dubai in a partnership with the RTA.
Number of employees: Over 50
Financing stage: Series B currently being finalised
Investors: Series A - Audacia Capital
Sector of operation: Transport
BULKWHIZ PROFILE
Date started: February 2017
Founders: Amira Rashad (CEO), Yusuf Saber (CTO), Mahmoud Sayedahmed (adviser), Reda Bouraoui (adviser)
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: E-commerce
Size: 50 employees
Funding: approximately $6m
Investors: Beco Capital, Enabling Future and Wain in the UAE; China's MSA Capital; 500 Startups; Faith Capital and Savour Ventures in Kuwait
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
The specs
Company profile: buybackbazaar.com
Name: buybackbazaar.com
Started: January 2018
Founder(s): Pishu Ganglani and Ricky Husaini
Based: Dubai
Sector: FinTech, micro finance
Initial investment: $1 million
AVOID SCAMMERS: TIPS FROM EMIRATES NBD
1. Never respond to e-mails, calls or messages asking for account, card or internet banking details
2. Never store a card PIN (personal identification number) in your mobile or in your wallet
3. Ensure online shopping websites are secure and verified before providing card details
4. Change passwords periodically as a precautionary measure
5. Never share authentication data such as passwords, card PINs and OTPs (one-time passwords) with third parties
6. Track bank notifications regarding transaction discrepancies
7. Report lost or stolen debit and credit cards immediately
Story%20behind%20the%20UAE%20flag
Our commentary on Brexit
- Alistair Burt: Despite Brexit, Britain can remain a world power
- Con Coughlin: Choice of the British people will be vindicated
Company%C2%A0profile
The five pillars of Islam
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
Funk Wav Bounces Vol.1
Calvin Harris
Columbia
Related
Turkish Ladies
Various artists, Sony Music Turkey
Glossary of a stock market revolution
A discussion website
Redditor
The users of Reddit
Robinhood
A smartphone app for buying and selling shares
Short seller
Selling a stock today in the belief its price will fall in the future
Short squeeze
Traders forced to buy a stock they are shorting
Naked short
An illegal practice
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Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
Results
4pm: Maiden (Dirt) Dh165,000 1,600m
Winner: Moshaher, Pat Dobbs (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer).
4.35pm: Handicap (D) Dh165,000 2,200m
Winner: Heraldic, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
5.10pm: Maiden (Turf) Dh165,000 1,600m
Winner: Rua Augusta, Harry Bentley, Ahmad bin Harmash.
5.45pm: Handicap (D) Dh190,000 1,200m
Winner: Private’s Cove, Mickael Barzalona, Sandeep Jadhav.
6.20pm: Handicap (T) Dh190,000 1,600m
Winner: Azmaam, Jim Crowley, Musabah Al Muhairi.
6.55pm: Handicap (D) Dh190,000 1,400m
Winner: Bochart, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
7.30pm: Handicap (T) Dh190,000 2,000m
Winner: Rio Tigre, Mickael Barzalona, Sandeep Jadhav.
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Where to apply
Applicants should send their completed applications - CV, covering letter, sample(s) of your work, letter of recommendation - to Nick March, Assistant Editor in Chief at The National and UAE programme administrator for the Rosalynn Carter Fellowships for Mental Health Journalism, by 5pm on April 30, 2020.
Please send applications to nmarch@thenational.ae and please mark the subject line as “Rosalynn Carter Fellowship for Mental Health Journalism (UAE programme application)”.
The local advisory board will consider all applications and will interview a short list of candidates in Abu Dhabi in June 2020. Successful candidates will be informed before July 30, 2020.
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
The%20specs
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 178hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 280Nm at 1,350-4,200rpm
Transmission: seven-speed dual-clutch auto
Price: from Dh209,000
On sale: now
Don't get fined
The UAE FTA requires following to be kept:
- Records of all supplies and imports of goods and services
- All tax invoices and tax credit notes
- Alternative documents related to receiving goods or services
- All tax invoices and tax credit notes
- Alternative documents issued
- Records of goods and services that have been disposed of or used for matters not related to business
COMPANY%20PROFILE
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
Dubai World Cup factbox
Most wins by a trainer: Godolphin’s Saeed bin Suroor(9)
Most wins by a jockey: Jerry Bailey(4)
Most wins by an owner: Godolphin(9)
Most wins by a horse: Godolphin’s Thunder Snow(2)
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
Tuesday's fixtures
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final:
First leg: Liverpool 5 Roma 2
Second leg: Wednesday, May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome
TV: BeIN Sports, 10.45pm (UAE)
ABU%20DHABI'S%20KEY%20TOURISM%20GOALS%3A%20BY%20THE%20NUMBERS
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
88 Video's most popular rentals
Avengers 3: Infinity War: an American superhero film released in 2018 and based on the Marvel Comics story.
Sholay: a 1975 Indian action-adventure film. It follows the adventures of two criminals hired by police to catch a vagabond. The film was panned on release but is now considered a classic.
Lucifer: is a 2019 Malayalam-language action film. It dives into the gritty world of Kerala’s politics and has become one of the highest-grossing Malayalam films of all time.