world comment
Emily Kaiser
A Reserve-rich Asia can afford to turn on the government spending taps should a recent bout of sluggish economic growth deteriorate into a deeper downturn.
For countries counting on exports for growth - in other words, most of Asia - overseas demand during the next couple of months may look as shaky as it did in May and during last month.
A series of manufacturing surveys released last week showed export orders weakened, particularly from Europe and the US. As long as those regions struggle with slack consumption, Asia's trade powerhouses will suffer.
"Clearly, we are in for a rough summer," said Frederic Neumann, the co-head of Asian economics for HSBC in Hong Kong, which compiles the monthly manufacturing surveys in Asia.
But Mr Neumann saw some promising signs amid the gloom: inflation pressures are ebbing.
That means if growth does not pick up soon, governments will have more leeway to ramp up spending without worrying so much about prices overheating. That takes some pressure off central bankers, who are struggling to cool inflation without snuffing out growth.
"As inflation fades, Asian officials - and above all Chinese - will be able to crank the stimulus dial one more time, and lift growth into year-end," Mr Neumann said.
To be sure, Asia's inflation battle is not yet won. Inflation is still running well ahead of government targets in China, India, South Korea and elsewhere, even after a drop of almost 20 per cent in oil prices since early May.
"Core" inflation, which strips out volatile prices such as those for food and energy, has been creeping higher. Low unemployment in the region gives workers more clout when it comes to negotiating wage increases to keep up with rising inflation.
But that poses the risk that companies will increase prices to offset higher labour costs, touching off a wage price spiral that drives inflation even higher.
That is one reason economists widely expect further interest rate increases across the region, with India, Malaysia and Thailand among the central banks tipped to increase rates this month. Last week, Taiwan's central bank raised rates.
Jan Loeys, the head of asset allocation for JPMorgan in New York, said even if overall inflation was peaking, as many economists believed, "at best it implies a temporary pause, and more likely just a slowing in the tightening process".
Why? Emerging market interest rates are not even halfway back up to the levels seen before the 2008 financial crisis.
On Tuesday, Australia kept its interest rates on hold after retail sales dropped unexpectedly in May.
Malaysia's rate decision is due today, and it is also expected to remain on hold after rates were raised in May. Zeti Akhtar Aziz, the central bank governor, said last week economic growth was still key to monetary policy.
"We don't run the economy to the ground just to have price stability," she said.
With an assist from the government's coffers, central bankers would have a better shot at targeting inflation without causing too much collateral damage to growth.
Compared with most advanced economies, Asia is in an enviable position. Unlike the US, Britain and other "rich" countries saddled with trillions of dollars in government debt, Asia's big economies boast large reserves and small debt burdens.
In China, for example, the government could compensate for tighter credit conditions by boosting investment in housing. With more than US$3 trillion (Dh11.01tn) in reserves, funding is not an obstacle.
"China's pursuit of loose fiscal policy should outweigh its tight monetary stance," Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economists wrote in a recent note to clients.
* Reuters
North Pole stats
Distance covered: 160km
Temperature: -40°C
Weight of equipment: 45kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 0
Terrain: Ice rock
South Pole stats
Distance covered: 130km
Temperature: -50°C
Weight of equipment: 50kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 3,300
Terrain: Flat ice
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
The End of Loneliness
Benedict Wells
Translated from the German by Charlotte Collins
Sceptre
Race card:
6.30pm: Baniyas (PA) Group 2 Dh195,000 1,400m.
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 1,400m.
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 1,200m.
8.15pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 1,200m.
8.50pm: Rated Conditions (TB) Dh240,000 1,600m.
9.20pm: Handicap (TB) Dh165,000 1,400m.
10pm: Handicap (TB) Dh175,000 2,000m.
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
If you go
Flying
Despite the extreme distance, flying to Fairbanks is relatively simple, requiring just one transfer in Seattle, which can be reached directly from Dubai with Emirates for Dh6,800 return.
Touring
Gondwana Ecotours’ seven-day Polar Bear Adventure starts in Fairbanks in central Alaska before visiting Kaktovik and Utqiarvik on the North Slope. Polar bear viewing is highly likely in Kaktovik, with up to five two-hour boat tours included. Prices start from Dh11,500 per person, with all local flights, meals and accommodation included; gondwanaecotours.com
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
The specs: 2018 BMW R nineT Scrambler
Price, base / as tested Dh57,000
Engine 1,170cc air/oil-cooled flat twin four-stroke engine
Transmission Six-speed gearbox
Power 110hp) @ 7,750rpm
Torque 116Nm @ 6,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 5.3L / 100km
WORLD CUP SQUAD
Dimuth Karunaratne (Captain), Angelo Mathews, Avishka Fernando, Lahiru Thirimanne, Kusal Mendis (wk), Kusal Perera (wk), Dhananjaya de Silva, Thisara Perera, Isuru Udana, Jeffrey Vandersay, Jeevan Mendis, Milinda Siriwardana, Lasith Malinga, Suranga Lakmal, Nuwan Pradeep
Second Test
In Dubai
Pakistan 418-5 (declared)
New Zealand 90 and 131-2 (follow on)
Day 3: New Zealand trail by 197 runs with 8 wickets remaining
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
