When was the last time you heard someone say he lost 20 per cent in stocks in the past six months - and still thinks he did well? Recently, in all likelihood. With markets everywhere flirting with decades-long lows and offering few hints of recovery, the question on many investors' minds these days is not who gained most, but who lost least.
If you want the depressing evidence, look no further than the performance of world stock indexes since May: only three that I can find - Botswana, Tehran and Tunis - came out in the black. Just 13 indexes did better than minus 20 per cent, and 14 of them lost more than half their value. Iceland, reeling from a spate of bankruptcies, bank nationalisation, bad loans and severe market overvaluation, was rottenest of all. It lost 80 per cent.
Those statistics startle. They have even led, in some quarters, to calls for a reassessment of assumptions about investing that have been pushed upon us by financial professionals and savvy friends these past few decades. We have long been told that stock markets go up in the long run, that we can stake our retirement portfolio on equities, that as long as we have enough time to invest we have little cause for worry. We knew there were risks - the small-print disclaimers told us so - but the implicit message was always that we would be all right.
For the moment, none of that seems certain. And in some respects, the crisis has exposed the lines we have heard from financial advisers, brokers and the rest of the market mavens out there in all their broken glory. Relations between the financial world and the everyday investor are strained, and it seems to grow harder by the day to tell who you can trust with your money. With the well publicised bank failures of recent months, even cash deposits can't be called entirely safe.
Yet while the story of the global crisis is far from finished, a few lessons are already emerging for everyday investors. Mainly, the debacle has served as a timely reminder about where interests lie in the financial world. Brokers and financial advisers are merchants, and they make money by offering us products that we pay for in management fees, in trading costs and in premiums placed on share purchases and redemptions.
That does not mean the people we trust with our money are crooks - most of them they are not - but it does mean financial professionals are constantly attuned to arguments for investing, and especially those arguments that support investments that give them the highest commissions.
One of the arguments, to give an example, that such professionals have advanced forcefully in recent years has been "decoupling". The idea behind decoupling is simple: if you invest in stocks in smaller countries and emerging markets - the UAE being one example - you are better off, because they do not tend to march in step with the larger developed markets of the US, Europe and Japan.
Yet if the global crisis has proven anything, it has shown that diverse markets can, indeed, all fall at the same time.
"The US downturn is very much a global phenomenon, which is not surprising given the links between the global financial system," said Ali Khan, a director at Arqaam Capital in Dubai. "Hardly any financial market today that courts international capital can be isolated or immune to the current events."
As with many market phenomena over the years, decoupling may have been a victim of its own success. Not too long ago, many markets behaved as if they were in fact decoupled. Russia's RTS Index, for example, gained 225 per cent between the beginning of 2001 and mid-2002, as the technology stock crash of 2000 continued to ravage US equities. If you were an American investor with a substantial stake in US stocks, having a good portion of your money in an offbeat market like Russia would have helped you.
You might think that, looking at the recent performance of world markets, decoupling is still alive in a few places. In Tehran, for example, stock prices have gone upwards during the crisis. The same story has played out in Tunisia and Botswana. Two of these markets, though - Botswana and Iran - do not attract much trading activity, their stocks are tightly held and relatively few securities are listed. Botswana, the biggest gainer in world markets during the crisis, was also coming off a major swoon in May. "The Botswana story was helped by the fact that a market correction had taken place before the crisis hit," said Gregory Matsake of Capital Securities, in the capital, Gaborone. "Thereafter, most of the bourse's blue chips went into a reporting period and all of them posted excellent results."
"The other reason," he said, "might be the fact that our market is generally illiquid, which means shares are generally tightly held. This tends to create an over-valuation of counters as demand outstrips supply."
The decoupling theory may be facing its sharpest test in its short life during this financial crisis, but other long-held theories about the market are still very much intact. Investing for the long term and riding out periods of crisis like the one under way, for example, still looks like a pretty good bet. As we learnt in the crash of 2000, markets do tend to come back. And unless you believe that business expansion and economic growth will be on the ropes for the next few decades - a doubtful hypothesis - the sweep of time is likely to lift markets back up with it.
So take comfort. The tides are shifting and stocks are getting cheaper. If anything, that means you should think about buying equities, not selling them out of fear you will lose another 20 per cent.
afitch@thenational.ae
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
The%20specs
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Sheer grandeur
The Owo building is 14 storeys high, seven of which are below ground, with the 30,000 square feet of amenities located subterranean, including a 16-seat private cinema, seven lounges, a gym, games room, treatment suites and bicycle storage.
A clear distinction between the residences and the Raffles hotel with the amenities operated separately.
Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
'Laal Kaptaan'
Director: Navdeep Singh
Stars: Saif Ali Khan, Manav Vij, Deepak Dobriyal, Zoya Hussain
Rating: 2/5
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
On racial profiling at airports
Results
6.30pm: Baniyas (PA) Group 2 Dh195,000 1,400m | Winner: ES Ajeeb, Sam Hitchcock (jockey), Ibrahim Aseel (trainer)
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 1,400m | Winner: Al Shamkhah, Royston Ffrench, Sandeep Jadhav
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 1,200m | Winner: Lavaspin, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
8.15pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 1,200m | Winner: Kawasir, Dane O’Neill, Musabah Al Muhairi
8.50pm: Rated Conditions (TB) Dh240,000 1,600m | Winner: Cosmo Charlie, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
9.20pm: Handicap (TB) Dh165,000 1,400m | Winner: Bochart, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
10pm: Handicap (TB) Dh175,000 2,000m | Winner: Quartier Francais, Fernando Jara, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
'Brazen'
Director: Monika Mitchell
Starring: Alyssa Milano, Sam Page, Colleen Wheeler
Rating: 3/5
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Company profile
Name: Steppi
Founders: Joe Franklin and Milos Savic
Launched: February 2020
Size: 10,000 users by the end of July and a goal of 200,000 users by the end of the year
Employees: Five
Based: Jumeirah Lakes Towers, Dubai
Financing stage: Two seed rounds – the first sourced from angel investors and the founders' personal savings
Second round raised Dh720,000 from silent investors in June this year
What are NFTs?
Are non-fungible tokens a currency, asset, or a licensing instrument? Arnab Das, global market strategist EMEA at Invesco, says they are mix of all of three.
You can buy, hold and use NFTs just like US dollars and Bitcoins. “They can appreciate in value and even produce cash flows.”
However, while money is fungible, NFTs are not. “One Bitcoin, dollar, euro or dirham is largely indistinguishable from the next. Nothing ties a dollar bill to a particular owner, for example. Nor does it tie you to to any goods, services or assets you bought with that currency. In contrast, NFTs confer specific ownership,” Mr Das says.
This makes NFTs closer to a piece of intellectual property such as a work of art or licence, as you can claim royalties or profit by exchanging it at a higher value later, Mr Das says. “They could provide a sustainable income stream.”
This income will depend on future demand and use, which makes NFTs difficult to value. “However, there is a credible use case for many forms of intellectual property, notably art, songs, videos,” Mr Das says.
Water waste
In the UAE’s arid climate, small shrubs, bushes and flower beds usually require about six litres of water per square metre, daily. That increases to 12 litres per square metre a day for small trees, and 300 litres for palm trees.
Horticulturists suggest the best time for watering is before 8am or after 6pm, when water won't be dried up by the sun.
A global report published by the Water Resources Institute in August, ranked the UAE 10th out of 164 nations where water supplies are most stretched.
The Emirates is the world’s third largest per capita water consumer after the US and Canada.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 178hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 280Nm at 1,350-4,200rpm
Transmission: seven-speed dual-clutch auto
Price: from Dh209,000
On sale: now
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Napoleon
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Anghami
Started: December 2011
Co-founders: Elie Habib, Eddy Maroun
Based: Beirut and Dubai
Sector: Entertainment
Size: 85 employees
Stage: Series C
Investors: MEVP, du, Mobily, MBC, Samena Capital
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League quarter-final second leg:
Juventus 1 Ajax 2
Ajax advance 3-2 on aggregate
MATCH INFO
Cricket World Cup League Two
Oman, UAE, Namibia
Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
Oman beat UAE by five wickets
UAE beat Namibia by eight runs
Namibia beat Oman by 52 runs
UAE beat Namibia by eight wickets
UAE v Oman - abandoned
Oman v Namibia - abandoned