Saxo Bank, a Danish investment firm, has made 10 "outrageous predictions" for the coming year, inspired by the Black Swan theory of the thinker and financier Nassim Taleb.
Mr Taleb has made a fortune and influenced many of the world's most powerful people with the premise that unlikely, unpredictable events such as the September 11 attacks and the subprime mortgage crisis are central to the course of history.
Few, if any, investors saw such events coming and those who did profited handsomely from the knowledge. In its list of unlikely predictions for next year, Saxo said it looked for things that could happen in the coming year but probably will not.
The list "should be seen as the black swans of the market rather than outright predictions", said David Karsbol, the Saxo chief economist. "We do believe that the odds of these events happening are somewhat higher than what is currently priced into the market."
In the US, the bank predicts the possibility of the government-run social security fund, which pays out welfare benefits to retirees and the disabled, no longer being able to cover its outlays, which account for almost 7 per cent of the American economy.
"This is not so much an outrageous claim as an actuarial and mathematical certainty," the bank said. "The outrageous part is that social security taxes and contributions have been squandered for so long."
As the disillusionment of the US public increases with regard to the political class, a new third political party could emerge and play a deciding role in next year's elections, Saxo believes.
The roller coaster of American public life will not be the only place where investors could experience and profit from a wild ride. While Saxo thinks the price of gold is on a long-term rise that should hit US$1,500 an ounce by 2014, it says a serious price drop in the near term is not out of the question.
"This trade seems to have become too easy and too widespread to pay out in the shorter term," the bank said. "A serious correction towards the $870 level could shake out the speculative community while keeping the metal in a longer term uptrend."
Sugar, gold's sweeter cousin, could also drop in price by a third, the bank predicts, driven by decreased demand for ethanol fuel in the US. Still, commodities investors should give pause to the second half of Saxo's reasoning for a depressed sugar price.
A return to more normal weather conditions, it said, would mean fewer droughts and disappointing rainy seasons that caused production to drop and prices to spike this year. Not even the great Mr Taleb is on record trying to predict the weather.
@Email:tgara@thenational.ae
Profile of Bitex UAE
Date of launch: November 2018
Founder: Monark Modi
Based: Business Bay, Dubai
Sector: Financial services
Size: Eight employees
Investors: Self-funded to date with $1m of personal savings
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
England World Cup squad
Eoin Morgan (capt), Moeen Ali, Jofra Archer, Jonny Bairstow, Jos Buttler (wkt), Tom Curran, Liam Dawson, Liam Plunkett, Adil Rashid, Joe Root, Jason Roy, Ben Stokes, James Vince, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
RESULTS
Bantamweight: Victor Nunes (BRA) beat Azizbek Satibaldiev (KYG). Round 1 KO
Featherweight: Izzeddin Farhan (JOR) beat Ozodbek Azimov (UZB). Round 1 rear naked choke
Middleweight: Zaakir Badat (RSA) beat Ercin Sirin (TUR). Round 1 triangle choke
Featherweight: Ali Alqaisi (JOR) beat Furkatbek Yokubov (UZB). Round 1 TKO
Featherweight: Abu Muslim Alikhanov (RUS) beat Atabek Abdimitalipov (KYG). Unanimous decision
Catchweight 74kg: Mirafzal Akhtamov (UZB) beat Marcos Costa (BRA). Split decision
Welterweight: Andre Fialho (POR) beat Sang Hoon-yu (KOR). Round 1 TKO
Lightweight: John Mitchell (IRE) beat Arbi Emiev (RUS). Round 2 RSC (deep cuts)
Middleweight: Gianni Melillo (ITA) beat Mohammed Karaki (LEB)
Welterweight: Handesson Ferreira (BRA) beat Amiran Gogoladze (GEO). Unanimous decision
Flyweight (Female): Carolina Jimenez (VEN) beat Lucrezia Ria (ITA), Round 1 rear naked choke
Welterweight: Daniel Skibinski (POL) beat Acoidan Duque (ESP). Round 3 TKO
Lightweight: Martun Mezhlumyan (ARM) beat Attila Korkmaz (TUR). Unanimous decision
Bantamweight: Ray Borg (USA) beat Jesse Arnett (CAN). Unanimous decision
Company%C2%A0profile
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Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
The biog
Occupation: Key marker and auto electrician
Hometown: Ghazala, Syria
Date of arrival in Abu Dhabi: May 15, 1978
Family: 11 siblings, a wife, three sons and one daughter
Favourite place in UAE: Abu Dhabi
Favourite hobby: I like to do a mix of things, like listening to poetry for example.
Favourite Syrian artist: Sabah Fakhri, a tenor from Aleppo
Favourite food: fresh fish
Kill%20Bill%20Volume%201
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Quentin%20Tarantino%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Uma%20Thurman%2C%20David%20Carradine%20and%20Michael%20Madsen%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%204.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: 3.0L twin-turbo V6
Gearbox: 10-speed automatic
Power: 405hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 562Nm at 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 11.2L/100km
Price: From Dh292,845 (Reserve); from Dh320,145 (Presidential)
On sale: Now
The Outsider
Stephen King, Penguin
Dates for the diary
To mark Bodytree’s 10th anniversary, the coming season will be filled with celebratory activities:
- September 21 Anyone interested in becoming a certified yoga instructor can sign up for a 250-hour course in Yoga Teacher Training with Jacquelene Sadek. It begins on September 21 and will take place over the course of six weekends.
- October 18 to 21 International yoga instructor, Yogi Nora, will be visiting Bodytree and offering classes.
- October 26 to November 4 International pilates instructor Courtney Miller will be on hand at the studio, offering classes.
- November 9 Bodytree is hosting a party to celebrate turning 10, and everyone is invited. Expect a day full of free classes on the grounds of the studio.
- December 11 Yogeswari, an advanced certified Jivamukti teacher, will be visiting the studio.
- February 2, 2018 Bodytree will host its 4th annual yoga market.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
How to vote in the UAE
1) Download your ballot https://www.fvap.gov/
2) Take it to the US Embassy
3) Deadline is October 15
4) The embassy will ensure all ballots reach the US in time for the November 3 poll
DUNE%3A%20PART%20TWO
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