Investors searching for clues as to where Bitcoin is heading next may want to look at what the options market is signalling.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency rebounded this week after falling below $40,000 for the first time since September on January 10. The drop put holders on edge. For one, it marked a downturn of roughly 40 per cent from the coin’s record high in November. It also served as a test of what is seen by several technical analysts as a key support level: $40,000.
Now Bitcoin appears to have stabilised, and options activity suggests investors believe the test of $40,000 is over and more upside is ahead, according to Genesis Global Trading.
The skew, or difference in implied volatility of bullish and bearish bets, has recently dropped from double digits to near zero, and revealed a decrease in investor demand for put options and an increase for call options, Genesis data show.
“That shift in preference may be bullish for the price of BTC, all else equal,” Noelle Acheson, head of market insights at Genesis Global Trading, said.
A bottom at $40,000 is a view echoed by many analysts in the famously optimistic world of cryptocurrencies. Martin Gaspar and Katherine Webb at CrossTower said in a Friday note that Bitcoin’s reserve risk, a measure of confidence of long-term holders, is currently lower than it was at the coin’s last bottom in July 2021, and now stands in the “buy” zone, which could give “more weight to the indication that this is a bottom”.
To be sure, Bitcoin remains as volatile as ever and trading could be choppy in an environment where the US Federal Reserve is becoming more hawkish, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group. Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 remains at one of its highest readings in the past 12 months.
In this environment, “you don’t really want to own high-beta risk assets”, he said. “You want to own things that are much more sensitive to value, much more sensitive to global growth and cyclicals, and that’s why I don’t think crypto and Bitcoin are going to really do great over the next three to six months.”
The $40,000 level “has been the key pivot point”, said Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone. Up next, $50,000 comes into play before Bitcoin resumes its upwards trend towards his forecast of $100,000, he said.
“Demand and adoption are increasing and supply is declining,” Mr McGlone said. “Something has to reverse the increasing Bitcoin adoption trend or the rules of economics point to higher prices. I expect demand and adoption trajectories to remain favourable.”
Mr McGlone isn’t alone in his calls for Bitcoin to more than double from current levels. Jonathan Padilla, co-founder of Snickerdoodle Labs, a blockchain company focused on data privacy, expects Bitcoin to hit that level by the end of 2022, and also said that $40,000 is probably a floor, given the level of institutional capital he expects to flow into the market this year.
“The institutional nature is dramatically different from the primarily retail focus in 2017, 2018,” Mr Padilla said. “That shows the strength of institutional buying and the demand from the long-term perspective.”
David Tawil, president of ProChain Capital, was ready to watch the $38,000 level in this past week’s sell-off. But, he hoped to see US tech stocks start to rebound, which signals to him that “the bottom is in” for Bitcoin.
“This is a pretty good buying level, especially if we go ahead and just retrace the losses – you’re talking about a 50 per cent-plus gain from a year,” he said.
Countries recognising Palestine
France, UK, Canada, Australia, Portugal, Belgium, Malta, Luxembourg, San Marino and Andorra
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Nations League
League A, Group 4
Spain v England, 10.45pm (UAE)
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Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Company name: Farmin
Date started: March 2019
Founder: Dr Ali Al Hammadi
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: AgriTech
Initial investment: None to date
Partners/Incubators: UAE Space Agency/Krypto Labs
MATCH DETAILS
Juventus 2 (Bonucci 36, Ronaldo 90 6)
Genoa 1 (Kouame 40)
Ruwais timeline
1971 Abu Dhabi National Oil Company established
1980 Ruwais Housing Complex built, located 10 kilometres away from industrial plants
1982 120,000 bpd capacity Ruwais refinery complex officially inaugurated by the founder of the UAE Sheikh Zayed
1984 Second phase of Ruwais Housing Complex built. Today the 7,000-unit complex houses some 24,000 people.
1985 The refinery is expanded with the commissioning of a 27,000 b/d hydro cracker complex
2009 Plans announced to build $1.2 billion fertilizer plant in Ruwais, producing urea
2010 Adnoc awards $10bn contracts for expansion of Ruwais refinery, to double capacity from 415,000 bpd
2014 Ruwais 261-outlet shopping mall opens
2014 Production starts at newly expanded Ruwais refinery, providing jet fuel and diesel and allowing the UAE to be self-sufficient for petrol supplies
2014 Etihad Rail begins transportation of sulphur from Shah and Habshan to Ruwais for export
2017 Aldar Academies to operate Adnoc’s schools including in Ruwais from September. Eight schools operate in total within the housing complex.
2018 Adnoc announces plans to invest $3.1 billion on upgrading its Ruwais refinery
2018 NMC Healthcare selected to manage operations of Ruwais Hospital
2018 Adnoc announces new downstream strategy at event in Abu Dhabi on May 13
Source: The National
Results
6.30pm Madjani Stakes Rated Conditions (PA) I Dh160,000 I 1,900m I Winner: Mawahib, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer)
7.05pm Maiden Dh150,000 I 1,400m I Winner One Season, Antonio Fresu, Satish Seemar
7.40pm: Maiden Dh150,000 I 2,000m I Winner Street Of Dreams, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
8.15pm Dubai Creek Listed I Dh250,000 I 1,600m I Winner Heavy Metal, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
8.50pm The Entisar Listed I Dh250,000 I 2,000m I Winner Etijaah, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson
9.25pm The Garhoud Listed I Dh250,000 I 1,200m I Winner Muarrab, Dane O’Neill, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
10pm Handicap I Dh160,000 I 1,600m I Winner Sea Skimmer, Patrick Cosgrave, Helal Al Alawi
Second ODI
England 322-7 (50 ovs)
India 236 (50 ovs)
England win by 86 runs
Next match: Tuesday, July 17, Headingley
Kareem Shaheen on Canada
While you're here
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
The specs
Price, base / as tested Dh1,100,000 (est)
Engine 5.2-litre V10
Gearbox seven-speed dual clutch
Power 630bhp @ 8,000rpm
Torque 600Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined 15.7L / 100km (est)
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, last-16, second leg (first-leg scores in brackets):
PSG (2) v Manchester United (0)
Midnight (Thursday), BeIN Sports
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more from Joseph Borell
Bangladesh tour of Pakistan
January 24 – First T20, Lahore
January 25 – Second T20, Lahore
January 27 – Third T20, Lahore
February 7-11 – First Test, Rawalpindi
April 3 – One-off ODI, Karachi
April 5-9 – Second Test, Karachi
more from Patrick Noack
World politics
Sholto Byrnes: How liberals in the West forgot what liberalism is
Rashmee Roshan Lall: Donald Trump will disrupt US democracy
Sholto Byrnes: Populists are the product of failed political parties
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 1 (Rashford 36')
Liverpool 1 (Lallana 84')
Man of the match: Marcus Rashford (Manchester United)
About Proto21
Date started: May 2018
Founder: Pir Arkam
Based: Dubai
Sector: Additive manufacturing (aka, 3D printing)
Staff: 18
Funding: Invested, supported and partnered by Joseph Group
2020 Oscars winners: in numbers
- Parasite – 4
- 1917– 3
- Ford v Ferrari – 2
- Joker – 2
- Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood – 2
- American Factory – 1
- Bombshell – 1
- Hair Love – 1
- Jojo Rabbit – 1
- Judy – 1
- Little Women – 1
- Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl) – 1
- Marriage Story – 1
- Rocketman – 1
- The Neighbors' Window – 1
- Toy Story 4 – 1
TOUCH RULES
Touch is derived from rugby league. Teams consist of up to 14 players with a maximum of six on the field at any time.
Teams can make as many substitutions as they want during the 40 minute matches.
Similar to rugby league, the attacking team has six attempts - or touches - before possession changes over.
A touch is any contact between the player with the ball and a defender, and must be with minimum force.
After a touch the player performs a “roll-ball” - similar to the play-the-ball in league - stepping over or rolling the ball between the feet.
At the roll-ball, the defenders have to retreat a minimum of five metres.
A touchdown is scored when an attacking player places the ball on or over the score-line.
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GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
More on Quran memorisation:
Coffee: black death or elixir of life?
It is among the greatest health debates of our time; splashed across newspapers with contradicting headlines - is coffee good for you or not?
Depending on what you read, it is either a cancer-causing, sleep-depriving, stomach ulcer-inducing black death or the secret to long life, cutting the chance of stroke, diabetes and cancer.
The latest research - a study of 8,412 people across the UK who each underwent an MRI heart scan - is intended to put to bed (caffeine allowing) conflicting reports of the pros and cons of consumption.
The study, funded by the British Heart Foundation, contradicted previous findings that it stiffens arteries, putting pressure on the heart and increasing the likelihood of a heart attack or stroke, leading to warnings to cut down.
Numerous studies have recognised the benefits of coffee in cutting oral and esophageal cancer, the risk of a stroke and cirrhosis of the liver.
The benefits are often linked to biologically active compounds including caffeine, flavonoids, lignans, and other polyphenols, which benefit the body. These and othetr coffee compounds regulate genes involved in DNA repair, have anti-inflammatory properties and are associated with lower risk of insulin resistance, which is linked to type-2 diabetes.
But as doctors warn, too much of anything is inadvisable. The British Heart Foundation found the heaviest coffee drinkers in the study were most likely to be men who smoked and drank alcohol regularly.
Excessive amounts of coffee also unsettle the stomach causing or contributing to stomach ulcers. It also stains the teeth over time, hampers absorption of minerals and vitamins like zinc and iron.
It also raises blood pressure, which is largely problematic for people with existing conditions.
So the heaviest drinkers of the black stuff - some in the study had up to 25 cups per day - may want to rein it in.
Rory Reynolds
Need to know
When: October 17 until November 10
Cost: Entry is free but some events require prior registration
Where: Various locations including National Theatre (Abu Dhabi), Abu Dhabi Cultural Center, Zayed University Promenade, Beach Rotana (Abu Dhabi), Vox Cinemas at Yas Mall, Sharjah Youth Center
What: The Korea Festival will feature art exhibitions, a B-boy dance show, a mini K-pop concert, traditional dance and music performances, food tastings, a beauty seminar, and more.
For more information: www.koreafestivaluae.com
Director: Paul Weitz
Stars: Kevin Hart
3/5 stars
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Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
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How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
The story in numbers
18
This is how many recognised sects Lebanon is home to, along with about four million citizens
450,000
More than this many Palestinian refugees are registered with UNRWA in Lebanon, with about 45 per cent of them living in the country’s 12 refugee camps
1.5 million
There are just under 1 million Syrian refugees registered with the UN, although the government puts the figure upwards of 1.5m
73
The percentage of stateless people in Lebanon, who are not of Palestinian origin, born to a Lebanese mother, according to a 2012-2013 study by human rights organisation Frontiers Ruwad Association
18,000
The number of marriages recorded between Lebanese women and foreigners between the years 1995 and 2008, according to a 2009 study backed by the UN Development Programme
77,400
The number of people believed to be affected by the current nationality law, according to the 2009 UN study
4,926
This is how many Lebanese-Palestinian households there were in Lebanon in 2016, according to a census by the Lebanese-Palestinian dialogue committee
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MATCH INFO
Manchester United 1 (Greenwood 77')
Everton 1 (Lindelof 36' og)
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
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Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
How to turn your property into a holiday home
- Ensure decoration and styling – and portal photography – quality is high to achieve maximum rates.
- Research equivalent Airbnb homes in your location to ensure competitiveness.
- Post on all relevant platforms to reach the widest audience; whether you let personally or via an agency know your potential guest profile – aiming for the wrong demographic may leave your property empty.
- Factor in costs when working out if holiday letting is beneficial. The annual DCTM fee runs from Dh370 for a one-bedroom flat to Dh1,200. Tourism tax is Dh10-15 per bedroom, per night.
- Check your management company has a physical office, a valid DTCM licence and is licencing your property and paying tourism taxes. For transparency, regularly view your booking calendar.
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – UAE won by 36 runs
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
Which honey takes your fancy?
Al Ghaf Honey
The Al Ghaf tree is a local desert tree which bears the harsh summers with drought and high temperatures. From the rich flowers, bees that pollinate this tree can produce delicious red colour honey in June and July each year
Sidr Honey
The Sidr tree is an evergreen tree with long and strong forked branches. The blossom from this tree is called Yabyab, which provides rich food for bees to produce honey in October and November. This honey is the most expensive, but tastiest
Samar Honey
The Samar tree trunk, leaves and blossom contains Barm which is the secret of healing. You can enjoy the best types of honey from this tree every year in May and June. It is an historical witness to the life of the Emirati nation which represents the harsh desert and mountain environments
The finalists
Player of the Century, 2001-2020: Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus), Lionel Messi (Barcelona), Mohamed Salah (Liverpool), Ronaldinho
Coach of the Century, 2001-2020: Pep Guardiola (Manchester City), Jose Mourinho (Tottenham Hotspur), Zinedine Zidane (Real Madrid), Sir Alex Ferguson
Club of the Century, 2001-2020: Al Ahly (Egypt), Bayern Munich (Germany), Barcelona (Spain), Real Madrid (Spain)
Player of the Year: Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
Club of the Year: Bayern Munich, Liverpool, Real Madrid
Coach of the Year: Gian Piero Gasperini (Atalanta), Hans-Dieter Flick (Bayern Munich), Jurgen Klopp (Liverpool)
Agent of the Century, 2001-2020: Giovanni Branchini, Jorge Mendes, Mino Raiola
