Bitcoin rebounded this week after falling below $40,000 for the first time since September last year. Reuters
Bitcoin rebounded this week after falling below $40,000 for the first time since September last year. Reuters
Bitcoin rebounded this week after falling below $40,000 for the first time since September last year. Reuters
Bitcoin rebounded this week after falling below $40,000 for the first time since September last year. Reuters

Bitcoin bulls say $40,000 test is over and it could hit $100,000 in 2022


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Investors searching for clues as to where Bitcoin is heading next may want to look at what the options market is signalling.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency rebounded this week after falling below $40,000 for the first time since September on January 10. The drop put holders on edge. For one, it marked a downturn of roughly 40 per cent from the coin’s record high in November. It also served as a test of what is seen by several technical analysts as a key support level: $40,000.

Now Bitcoin appears to have stabilised, and options activity suggests investors believe the test of $40,000 is over and more upside is ahead, according to Genesis Global Trading.

The skew, or difference in implied volatility of bullish and bearish bets, has recently dropped from double digits to near zero, and revealed a decrease in investor demand for put options and an increase for call options, Genesis data show.

“That shift in preference may be bullish for the price of BTC, all else equal,” Noelle Acheson, head of market insights at Genesis Global Trading, said.

A bottom at $40,000 is a view echoed by many analysts in the famously optimistic world of cryptocurrencies. Martin Gaspar and Katherine Webb at CrossTower said in a Friday note that Bitcoin’s reserve risk, a measure of confidence of long-term holders, is currently lower than it was at the coin’s last bottom in July 2021, and now stands in the “buy” zone, which could give “more weight to the indication that this is a bottom”.

To be sure, Bitcoin remains as volatile as ever and trading could be choppy in an environment where the US Federal Reserve is becoming more hawkish, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group. Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 remains at one of its highest readings in the past 12 months.

In this environment, “you don’t really want to own high-beta risk assets”, he said. “You want to own things that are much more sensitive to value, much more sensitive to global growth and cyclicals, and that’s why I don’t think crypto and Bitcoin are going to really do great over the next three to six months.”

The $40,000 level “has been the key pivot point”, said Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone. Up next, $50,000 comes into play before Bitcoin resumes its upwards trend towards his forecast of $100,000, he said.

“Demand and adoption are increasing and supply is declining,” Mr McGlone said. “Something has to reverse the increasing Bitcoin adoption trend or the rules of economics point to higher prices. I expect demand and adoption trajectories to remain favourable.”

Mr McGlone isn’t alone in his calls for Bitcoin to more than double from current levels. Jonathan Padilla, co-founder of Snickerdoodle Labs, a blockchain company focused on data privacy, expects Bitcoin to hit that level by the end of 2022, and also said that $40,000 is probably a floor, given the level of institutional capital he expects to flow into the market this year.

“The institutional nature is dramatically different from the primarily retail focus in 2017, 2018,” Mr Padilla said. “That shows the strength of institutional buying and the demand from the long-term perspective.”

David Tawil, president of ProChain Capital, was ready to watch the $38,000 level in this past week’s sell-off. But, he hoped to see US tech stocks start to rebound, which signals to him that “the bottom is in” for Bitcoin.

“This is a pretty good buying level, especially if we go ahead and just retrace the losses – you’re talking about a 50 per cent-plus gain from a year,” he said.

ANATOMY%20OF%20A%20FALL
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The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative 

Read part one: how cars came to the UAE

While you're here
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
  • Priority access to new homes from participating developers
  • Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
  • Flexible payment plans from developers
  • Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
  • DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Panipat

Director Ashutosh Gowariker

Produced Ashutosh Gowariker, Rohit Shelatkar, Reliance Entertainment

Cast Arjun Kapoor, Sanjay Dutt, Kriti Sanon, Mohnish Behl, Padmini Kolhapure, Zeenat Aman

Rating 3 /stars

Honeymoonish
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What can victims do?

Always use only regulated platforms

Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion

Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)

Report to local authorities

Warn others to prevent further harm

Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
  • Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
  • Power: 640hp
  • Torque: 760nm
  • On sale: 2026
  • Price: Not announced yet
WOMAN AND CHILD

Director: Saeed Roustaee

Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi

Rating: 4/5

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EXPATS
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MATCH INFO

Rugby World Cup (all times UAE)

Third-place play-off: New Zealand v Wales, Friday, 1pm

Final: England v South Africa, Saturday, 1pm

Some of Darwish's last words

"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008

His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.

UK's plans to cut net migration

Under the UK government’s proposals, migrants will have to spend 10 years in the UK before being able to apply for citizenship.

Skilled worker visas will require a university degree, and there will be tighter restrictions on recruitment for jobs with skills shortages.

But what are described as "high-contributing" individuals such as doctors and nurses could be fast-tracked through the system.

Language requirements will be increased for all immigration routes to ensure a higher level of English.

Rules will also be laid out for adult dependants, meaning they will have to demonstrate a basic understanding of the language.

The plans also call for stricter tests for colleges and universities offering places to foreign students and a reduction in the time graduates can remain in the UK after their studies from two years to 18 months.

GOLF’S RAHMBO

- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)

The specs

Engine: 1.5-litre turbo

Power: 181hp

Torque: 230Nm

Transmission: 6-speed automatic

Starting price: Dh79,000

On sale: Now

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About Okadoc

Date started: Okadoc, 2018

Founder/CEO: Fodhil Benturquia

Based: Dubai, UAE

Sector: Healthcare

Size: (employees/revenue) 40 staff; undisclosed revenues recording “double-digit” monthly growth

Funding stage: Series B fundraising round to conclude in February

Investors: Undisclosed

COMPANY PROFILE

Name: Xpanceo

Started: 2018

Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov

Based: Dubai, UAE

Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality

Funding: $40 million

Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)

Match info

Premier League

Manchester United 2 (Martial 30', Lingard 69')
Arsenal 2 (Mustafi 26', Rojo 68' OG)

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Paatal Lok season two

Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy 

Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong

Rating: 4.5/5

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Updated: May 17, 2023, 11:16 AM`