SINGAPORE // As senior political analyst at Lehman Brothers in London, Alastair Newton wrote a regular report for clients on global trends called Things Which Keep Me Awake at Night. Now Lehman has filed for bankruptcy protection, its employees have cleaned out their desks and Mr Newton is negotiating a new contract at Japanese brokerage Nomura Holdings, which last week paid US$225 million (Dh826m) for the company's operations in Asia, Europe and the Middle East. Fittingly, his latest report reflects how his own industry has become the subject of his sagacious insomnia. Delivered in his role as an independent analyst to the Japan Society in London, it was entitled Go East, Young Man.
"The global centre of economic gravity is shifting closer to Asia than at any time since the early 18th century," Mr Newton said. "As Nomura's rescue of a sizeable part of Lehman underlines, the power of ultimate ownership in the world of finance may now be moving rapidly and irrevocably eastwards."
Commentators have been proclaiming the dawn of an "Asian century" for years. But the unfolding financial crisis emanating from Wall Street is prompting an increasing number of experts to conclude that the Anglo-American model of free-market capitalism is collapsing and that for new growth and investment the global economy will henceforth have to look to the more state-guided, cash-rich economies of the Gulf, India, China and Japan.
Japan's inclusion in this new axis of economic power reflects a subtle, but important, shift in thinking about the future of the global economy. Until a few months ago, many economists in Asia and other emerging markets subscribed to a hopeful theory that emerging economies such as China and India had developed sufficient trade between them to break away from the powerful economic tides of the US, the world's largest economy.
While emerging economies are expected to keep growing, few now dispute that the crisis in the US is going to take a significant global toll. Instead, the implosion of global credit in the past two weeks has shifted the focus from countries that will still manage to grow to countries that - in a credit-starved world - will have the money to finance that growth.
"If you start from the assumption that we'll lack a lot of money to fund infrastructure projects and major investments, we have to look at where the money is," said Thomas Enders, the chief executive of Airbus, during last week's meeting of the World Economic Forum in Tianjin, China.
There is significant scepticism, however, as to whether either China or Japan is ready or willing to step into these larger shoes.
China is already acknowledging the bigger role being thrust on it in terms of growth.
"The biggest contribution we can make to the world economy under the current circumstances," the Chinese premier Wen Jiabao told the forum in Tianjin, "is to maintain China's strong, stable and relatively fast growth, and avoid big fluctuations."
China's economy remains one bright spot in a slowing world. China's economy is projected to expand by 10 per cent this year as global growth slows to just four per cent. After trying to cool what was deemed an overheating economy, China is now trying to offset slowing export demand by cutting rates and boosting government spending. Last month, the People's Bank of China cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time in six years and reduced reserve requirements for smaller banks.
"They're worried that some of the measures they put in place in the last several years could be having too much impact," said Thio Chin Loo, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas in Singapore. "They've lifted their foot off the brakes."
Caught between slowing exports and what economists say is a bubble in domestic investment, China's only option is to boost growth made by personal consumption. According to the China Association for Soft Science Studies, domestic consumption now contributes more to China's economic growth than exports, but only by a slender margin.
The problem, economists say, is that Chinese consumers are still adjusting to life in an economy where job security is no longer guaranteed. China's reforms over the past 30 years have sped economic growth but did away with the "iron rice bowl" of lifetime employment, education, housing and health care once provided by state-owned enterprises. "The savings rate is still very high because the safety net is very low," said Friedrich Wu, a professor at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University. "So people have to save a lot."
The Chinese save roughly half of what they earn, which if it is not invested inside China, has to be invested abroad. China is consequently one of the biggest buyers of US government debt, a fact that has helped keep US interest rates low despite its ballooning current account deficit and is symptomatic of what US critics have called China's "savings glut".
Economists say China, Japan and the Gulf are likely to continue to finance the US deficit. Aside from worrying about the health of one of their biggest customers, there are few other markets large enough to allow them to park their massive export earnings and easily get them out again.
But China is also looking increasingly to invest in faster-growing emerging markets, particularly those where it can secure supplies of natural resources - the Middle East, central Asia and Africa. "In terms of a capital exporter, China is certainly playing a more important role, especially in emerging economies," said Prof Wu. China's overseas investment grew 83 per cent between 2005 and last year, to $22.5 billion. Economists say it is helping to shield poorer economies in Africa and Latin America from the worst effects of the credit crunch.
China's growing foreign investment is nothing next to Japan's, however. Investment from Japanese corporations fuelled South East Asia's supercharged growth in the late 1980s and early 1990s, then swivelled to China. After peaking in 1999, Japanese FDI slumped for the next five years. But in 2005, it began rising again, and according to a recent report by the UN Conference on Trade and Development, rose 60 per cent between 2005 and last year to $73.5bn.
Japan sparked a case of 1980s nostalgia last week when, fresh on the heels of Nomura's announcement, its largest bank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, agreed to pay $9bn for a 21 per cent slice of Morgan Stanley. Three days later it announced that for dessert it would pay $200m for 9.9 per cent of Aberdeen Asset Management of the UK.
Japan's outlays reminded the world that, despite 16 years of moribund economic growth, the country is sitting on trillions of dollars in savings that need to be invested to help finance the retirement needs of its ageing population. Japan's $954bn in foreign currency reserves rank second only to China's. Its $936bn government pension fund makes it technically the largest sovereign wealth fund. Banks such as Mitsubishi UFJ, moreover, have slowly rebuilt their balance sheets and Japanese companies remain largely unscathed by the credit crisis. More than 40 per cent of public Japanese companies were reportedly debt-free in their latest fiscal year.
Japanese individuals had also begun venturing abroad as well to beat bank deposits that earn just 0.3 per cent. "Japanese investors are dying for better returns on their money," said Ms Thio. Thousands of Japanese housewives were even dabbling in foreign currency trading, with many borrowing money at low Japanese rates to earn higher returns abroad. Before the credit crisis struck last August, Japanese individuals engaging in this so-called "carry trade" reportedly accounted for more than $9bn in daily trades - one fifth of the global foreign exchange trading taking place during Tokyo's trading hours.
After losing millions in the credit crisis, Japanese investors have regained their customary conservatism, analysts say. But once markets settle, some predict, Japanese savers will likely put their savings to work overseas again. "When things stabilise," said Ms Thio, "I think the appetite for risk could slowly come back."
warnold@thenational.ae
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Results
57kg quarter-finals
Zakaria Eljamari (UAE) beat Hamed Al Matari (YEM) by points 3-0.
60kg quarter-finals
Ibrahim Bilal (UAE) beat Hyan Aljmyah (SYR) RSC round 2.
63.5kg quarter-finals
Nouredine Samir (UAE) beat Shamlan A Othman (KUW) by points 3-0.
67kg quarter-finals
Mohammed Mardi (UAE) beat Ahmad Ondash (LBN) by points 2-1.
71kg quarter-finals
Ahmad Bahman (UAE) defeated Lalthasanga Lelhchhun (IND) by points 3-0.
Amine El Moatassime (UAE) beat Seyed Kaveh Safakhaneh (IRI) by points 3-0.
81kg quarter-finals
Ilyass Habibali (UAE) beat Ahmad Hilal (PLE) by points 3-0
Nancy 9 (Hassa Beek)
Nancy Ajram
(In2Musica)
Despacito's dominance in numbers
Released: 2017
Peak chart position: No.1 in more than 47 countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia and Lebanon
Views: 5.3 billion on YouTube
Sales: With 10 million downloads in the US, Despacito became the first Latin single to receive Diamond sales certification
Streams: 1.3 billion combined audio and video by the end of 2017, making it the biggest digital hit of the year.
Awards: 17, including Record of the Year at last year’s prestigious Latin Grammy Awards, as well as five Billboard Music Awards
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Sheer grandeur
The Owo building is 14 storeys high, seven of which are below ground, with the 30,000 square feet of amenities located subterranean, including a 16-seat private cinema, seven lounges, a gym, games room, treatment suites and bicycle storage.
A clear distinction between the residences and the Raffles hotel with the amenities operated separately.
'Spies in Disguise'
Director: Nick Bruno and Troy Quane
Stars: Will Smith, Tom Holland, Karen Gillan and Roshida Jones
Rating: 4 out of 5 stars
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
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Company%20Profile
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More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Swiss fly direct from the UAE to Zurich from Dh2,855 return, including taxes.
The chalet
Chalet N is currently open in winter only, between now and April 21. During the ski season, starting on December 11, a week’s rental costs from €210,000 (Dh898,431) per week for the whole property, which has 22 beds in total, across six suites, three double rooms and a children’s suite. The price includes all scheduled meals, a week’s ski pass, Wi-Fi, parking, transfers between Munich, Innsbruck or Zurich airports and one 50-minute massage per person. Private ski lessons cost from €360 (Dh1,541) per day. Halal food is available on request.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
MATCH INFO
Qalandars 109-3 (10ovs)
Salt 30, Malan 24, Trego 23, Jayasuriya 2-14
Bangla Tigers (9.4ovs)
Fletcher 52, Rossouw 31
Bangla Tigers win by six wickets
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
SERIE A FIXTURES
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Saturday
Roma v Udinese (5pm)
SPAL v Napoli (8pm)
Juventus v Torino (10.45pm)
Sunday
Sampdoria v AC Milan (2.30pm)
Inter Milan v Genoa (5pm)
Crotone v Benevento (5pm)
Verona v Lazio (5pm)
Cagliari v Chievo (5pm)
Sassuolo v Bologna (8pm)
Fiorentina v Atalanta (10.45pm)
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
You Were Never Really Here
Director: Lynne Ramsay
Starring: Joaquim Phoenix, Ekaterina Samsonov
Four stars
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Company%20profile
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Company%20profile%20
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The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
The biog
Name: Dhabia Khalifa AlQubaisi
Age: 23
How she spends spare time: Playing with cats at the clinic and feeding them
Inspiration: My father. He’s a hard working man who has been through a lot to provide us with everything we need
Favourite book: Attitude, emotions and the psychology of cats by Dr Nicholes Dodman
Favourit film: 101 Dalmatians - it remind me of my childhood and began my love of dogs
Word of advice: By being patient, good things will come and by staying positive you’ll have the will to continue to love what you're doing
Other acts on the Jazz Garden bill
Sharrie Williams
The American singer is hugely respected in blues circles due to her passionate vocals and songwriting. Born and raised in Michigan, Williams began recording and touring as a teenage gospel singer. Her career took off with the blues band The Wiseguys. Such was the acclaim of their live shows that they toured throughout Europe and in Africa. As a solo artist, Williams has also collaborated with the likes of the late Dizzy Gillespie, Van Morrison and Mavis Staples.
Lin Rountree
An accomplished smooth jazz artist who blends his chilled approach with R‘n’B. Trained at the Duke Ellington School of the Arts in Washington, DC, Rountree formed his own band in 2004. He has also recorded with the likes of Kem, Dwele and Conya Doss. He comes to Dubai on the back of his new single Pass The Groove, from his forthcoming 2018 album Stronger Still, which may follow his five previous solo albums in cracking the top 10 of the US jazz charts.
Anita Williams
Dubai-based singer Anita Williams will open the night with a set of covers and swing, jazz and blues standards that made her an in-demand singer across the emirate. The Irish singer has been performing in Dubai since 2008 at venues such as MusicHall and Voda Bar. Her Jazz Garden appearance is career highlight as she will use the event to perform the original song Big Blue Eyes, the single from her debut solo album, due for release soon.
