The cost of the coronavirus pandemic could be as high as $4.1 trillion (Dh15.05tn), or almost 5 per cent of global gross domestic product, depending on the disease’s spread through Europe, the US and other major economies, the Asian Development Bank said.
A shorter containment period could limit the damage to $2tn, or 2.3 per cent of world output, the Manila-based lender said in its Asian Development Outlook report released on Friday. Developing Asia, including China, accounts for as much as 36 per cent of the pandemic’s total cost, it said.
“No one can say how widely the Covid-19 pandemic may spread, and containment may take longer than currently projected,” Yasuyuki Sawada, the ADB’s chief economist, said in the report. “The possibility of severe financial turmoil and financial crises cannot be discounted.”
On March 6, the ADB had said the virus outbreak could cost the world economy $347 billion, and cut the global growth rate by as much as 0.4 percentage point. Since then, the epicenter of the virus has shifted from China to Europe and the US, with the number of global infections now topping 1 million.
The new estimate released on Friday takes into account the immediate impact on tourism, consumption and investment, Mr Sawada said in an interview with Bloomberg TV’s Haslinda Amin and Yvonne Man. The cost could rise further if supply-side disruptions materialise, he said.
In the report, the ADB cut its 2020 growth forecast for Asia to 2.2 per cent from 5.5 per cent estimated in September last year. China’s forecast was slashed to 2.3 per cent from 6 per cent, and compares with 6.1 per cent growth last year. All of developing Asia’s sub-regions will see weaker growth this year, according to the report.
Tourism and commodity dependent nations including Thailand “will suffer most” from the pandemic, Mr Sawada said in the interview. If the disease can be contained within three to six months, the economic recovery could also be quicker, he said.
Inflation is likely to accelerate due to higher food costs, even as weaker economic activity and softer commodity prices mitigate any price spikes, before easing in 2021, the ADB said in the report.
Ticket prices
- Golden circle - Dh995
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
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The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 611bhp
Torque: 620Nm
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Price: upon application
On sale: now
RESULTS
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Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
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Tonight's Chat on The National
Tonight's Chat is a series of online conversations on The National. The series features a diverse range of celebrities, politicians and business leaders from around the Arab world.
Tonight’s Chat host Ricardo Karam is a renowned author and broadcaster with a decades-long career in TV. He has previously interviewed Bill Gates, Carlos Ghosn, Andre Agassi and the late Zaha Hadid, among others. Karam is also the founder of Takreem.
Intellectually curious and thought-provoking, Tonight’s Chat moves the conversation forward.
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THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre, four-cylinder turbo
Transmission: seven-speed dual clutch automatic
Power: 169bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh54,500
On sale: now
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.6-litre V6
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 285bhp
Torque: 353Nm
Price: TBA
On sale: Q2, 2020
Start times
5.55am: Wheelchair Marathon Elites
6am: Marathon Elites
7am: Marathon Masses
9am: 10Km Road Race
11am: 4Km Fun Run
Biography
Favourite Meal: Chicken Caesar salad
Hobbies: Travelling, going to the gym
Inspiration: Father, who was a captain in the UAE army
Favourite read: Rich Dad Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosaki and Sharon Lechter
Favourite film: The Founder, about the establishment of McDonald's
