I recently looked at how buying stock market index or tracker funds could ruin your wealth prospects because they make you feel safe investing in what is most likely the top, or near to the top, of a long bull market. If I am right, then years of disappointment and investment underperformance will lie ahead as stocks revalue back to reflect a more realistic long-term rate of return on money.
But some readers have quite rightly asked me: “OK, if we agree with you on that, then what do we do instead?”
It is a fair question. But just to underline where the index funds get it wrong: basically you will never become rich as an investor by going for maximum diversification and waiting for the tide of economic growth to raise all boats.
Rather you have to do the exact opposite: cleverly select a few investment opportunities that are set to do really well whatever the financial weather, and stick with them for a long time so that the mathematical power of compounding will work in your favour.
My old friend Chris Mayer has got this right and that’s why he is the doyen of American investment newsletter writers these days.
We first met back in early 2009 when he contacted me after reading my book: Opportunity Dubai: How to make a Fortune in the Middle East. He came to Dubai with his publisher Addison Wiggin in the midst of the global financial crisis and the property slump. I was delighted to meet them. And they subsequently invited me to address the 1,000-plus delegates at their annual conference in Vancouver about my experience of business and journalism in the UAE.
Mayer quoted me extensively in his book about global investment opportunities: World Right Side Up: Investing Across Six Continents, which sold much better than mine.
His then top Dubai stock selection, Emaar Properties, went on to produce stellar price performance even though this book was published well after the strong economic recovery in Dubai was obvious and the city’s reputation restored.
Most recently, he has been working as the chief investment officer for American financial publisher Bill Bonner of Agora Financial. His latest tome: 100 Baggers, a study of stocks that returned 100-to-1 from 1962 to 2015, drills down into what exactly is behind shares that offer huge outperformance. What emerges is the very reverse of the idea of an index averaging out your returns over time.
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is the standout winner. It has risen more than 18,000-fold since the ‘60s: US$10,000 invested in 1965 is worth $180 million today, as opposed to just $1.1m if invested in a tracker index fund following the S&P 500.
Berkshire is also an investment vehicle rather than a company in a single sector, so its own success is very much an insight into how to maximise investment returns. Mayer highlights two very clear conclusions: “First you have to be concentrated. You have to focus on your best ideas. You can’t own a lot of stocks that just dilute your returns.
“Warren Buffett did not hesitate to bet big. His largest position would frequently be one-third, or more, of his portfolio. Often, his portfolio would be no more than five positions.”
His other crucial insight is that you need to hold these well-selected investments for a long time to maximise the incredible power of compounding, a mathematical phenomenon. Mayer tells an old legend to explain this: “There was once a king who wanted to repay a local sage for saving his daughter. He asked to be paid a grain of rice a day, doubled every day. Thus on the first day he would get one grain of rice. On the second day, two. On the third day, four. And so on.
“The king agreed and in a month, the king’s granaries were empty. He owed the sage over 1 billion grains of rice on the 30th day.”
Actually the power of such compounding works best at the final stages of a long-term investment as the upward curve becomes exponential.
But how do you spot the next Warren Buffett and his Berkshire Hathaway? That’s the service Mayer is now offering his high-paying subscribers in his Bonner Private Portfolio. And he did get the Dubai recovery right as a foreign investor when most local insiders had given up.
The downside is that at $5,000 a year for subscription (the first year comes at an introductory rate of $3,000) it is probably the most highly-priced investment newsletter in the industry, though that is of course no guarantee of success either. If it were that easy we could all be as rich as Mr Buffett.
Peter Cooper has been a Gulf financial writer for 21 years
pf@thenational.ae
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The specs: 2019 Chevrolet Bolt EV
Price, base: Dh138,000 (estimate)
Engine: 60kWh battery
Transmission: Single-speed Electronic Precision Shift
Power: 204hp
Torque: 360Nm
Range: 520km (claimed)
THE BIO
Age: 30
Favourite book: The Power of Habit
Favourite quote: "The world is full of good people, if you cannot find one, be one"
Favourite exercise: The snatch
Favourite colour: Blue
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
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What is a Ponzi scheme?
A fraudulent investment operation where the scammer provides fake reports and generates returns for old investors through money paid by new investors, rather than through ligitimate business activities.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Results
4pm: Maiden; Dh165,000 (Dirt); 1,400m
Winner: Solar Shower; William Lee (jockey); Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
4.35pm: Handicap; Dh165,000 (D); 2,000m
Winner: Thaaqib; Antonio Fresu; Erwan Charpy.
5.10pm: Maiden; Dh165,000 (Turf); 1,800m
Winner: Bila Shak; Adrie de Vries; Fawzi Nass
5.45pm: Handicap; Dh175,000 (D); 1,200m
Winner: Beachcomber Bay; Richard Mullen; Satish Seemar
6.20pm: Handicap; Dh205,000 (T); 1,800m
Winner: Muzdawaj; Jim Crowley; Musabah Al Muhairi
6.55pm: Handicap; Dh185,000 (D); 1,600m
Winner: Mazeed; Tadhg O’Shea; Satish Seemar
7.30pm: Handicap; Dh205,000 (T); 1,200m
Winner: Riflescope; Tadhg O’Shea; Satish Seemar.
The specs: 2017 Dodge Viper SRT
Price, base / as tested Dh460,000
Engine 8.4L V10
Transmission Six-speed manual
Power 645hp @ 6,200rpm
Torque 813Nm @ 5,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 16.8L / 100km
The biog
Hometown: Cairo
Age: 37
Favourite TV series: The Handmaid’s Tale, Black Mirror
Favourite anime series: Death Note, One Piece and Hellsing
Favourite book: Designing Brand Identity, Fifth Edition
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Results
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,600m; Winner: Rawat Al Reef, Adrie de Vries (jockey), Abdallah Al Hammadi (trainer)
5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Noof KB, Richard Mullen, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: AF Seven Skies, Bernardo Pinheiro, Qaiss Aboud
6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Jabalini, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7pm: UAE Arabian Derby – Prestige (PA) Dh150,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Dergham Athbah, Richard Mullen, Mohamed Daggash
7.30pm: Emirates Championship – Group 1 (PA) Dh1,000,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Somoud, Richard Mullen, Jean de Roualle
8pm: Abu Dhabi Championship – Group 3 (TB) Dh380,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Irish Freedom, Antonio Fresu, Satish Seemar
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Why it pays to compare
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
The%20specs%3A%202024%20Mercedes%20E200
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2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.