The Opec meeting at the start of July faces quite a different mood from last year's gatherings. After battling low prices, a coronavirus-induced slump in demand and a cautious recovery, the market's alarm signals are now flashing orange. It is time for the producers' organisation to move on to the next phase of the campaign.
The headline price is striking enough, with Brent crude at more than $76 a barrel on Friday – its highest level since late 2018, bringing it close to breaching a seven-year record.
However, there are plenty of other signs of market tightness.
The discount of US benchmark West Texas Intermediate to Brent now sits at $2, compared to $10 at the last peak in 2018. As American demand picks up while production remains subdued, there is less incentive to export surplus crude.
The premium between September and October WTI futures has widened to more than $1 a barrel, indicating that prompt supplies are strained.
The premium for immediate delivery over longer-dated futures, the situation known as backwardation, encourages traders to empty oil from storage to avoid receiving a lower price later.
Apart from China, surplus inventories built up earlier during the pandemic have almost dissipated. Stocks in developed countries are now below their five-year average before the pandemic. Major traders such as Vitol expect global demand to be back at pre-Covid levels by the second half of next year.
The global economy is picking up as key countries overcome the worst of the pandemic. The global composite purchasing managers' index, a good advance indicator, reached its highest level in more than 15 years in May.
Manufacturing has led the recovery so far as people stuck at homes buy computers and make house improvements.
Now services are starting to pick up in the US and Europe as the pace of vaccinations rises – meaning more car travel to restaurants, malls and cinemas, as well as holidays by road and, increasingly, air.
Concerns remain over the new coronavirus variants, particularly the now-infamous Delta strain, the slow pace of vaccination in many parts of the world and the problem of reopening Asian countries such as Japan that managed to keep infection levels low but have little established immunity.
The key factor still depressing oil demand is the lack of air passengers.
The UK’s problems over its “traffic light” system and quarantine policies indicate how hard restarting mass international travel will be.
Aviation, which in 2019 consumed about 7.5 million barrels per day, is set to recover about 1.5 million bpd next year.
As and when restrictions are substantially eased, there will probably be an initial rush of leisure flights, even if business travel never returns to its pre-pandemic ways.
The planned "green recovery" in Europe and the US is not an immediate threat. Even though sales of petrol and diesel passenger cars probably reached their peak in 2017, and electric vehicles are rapidly gaining market share, this will have only a limited near-term effect on oil consumption.
The effect of climate policies and newly competitive renewables, battery-powered vehicles and others will have a big effect on global petroleum in the coming decades.
For now, the main effect is to discourage investment in new oil supply.
The usual characters among bank analysts are hitting the headlines by forecasting oil prices of $100 a barrel by the second half of next year. However, this depends critically on what Opec does. It will still have 6.9 million bpd in spare capacity in its pocket after July, according to the International Energy Agency's estimates.
Yet, there has still been no breakthrough in the US-Iran talks. It would take several months for any deal to be enforced and for more cargoes to be sold and arrive at destinations, even though some Iranian crude is floating in storage off Asian ports.
Opec’s regular monthly meetings mean it can monitor this situation without needing to pre-empt it.
Estimates for US production growth next year range from 0.5 million bpd to 1.3 million bpd. Canada, Norway, Brazil and new entrant Guyana are gaining too. Opec seems quite confident that US shale producers will never return to pre-pandemic levels of growth. Burnt twice, investors are demanding drillers return cash rather than grow aggressively.
However, the producers' organisation should be wary. They have written off shale at least twice before and it has demonstrated its resilience. A spell of prices at $100 a barrel will result in shale companies generating strong cash flows, and privately held producers will step in even if the public companies stay reticent. Shell, Occidental and others are selling off acreage that more aggressive companies could pick up.
The Opec+ alliance has succeeded better than anyone might have expected in pulling prices back from the brink. Its caution is understandable after such an unprecedented and scarring event, with a lot of uncertainty still ahead.
Apart from a brief pullback in March, prices have risen almost linearly since November, even as producers gradually brought back supply. As Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz has vowed repeatedly to surprise the market, Opec+ should not allow the oil price to become a simple one-way bet for traders and competitors.
With prices running ahead of recovery, now is the time for the organisation to be bolder in regaining its lost market share.
Robin M. Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Recent winners
2002 Giselle Khoury (Colombia)
2004 Nathalie Nasralla (France)
2005 Catherine Abboud (Oceania)
2007 Grace Bijjani (Mexico)
2008 Carina El-Keddissi (Brazil)
2009 Sara Mansour (Brazil)
2010 Daniella Rahme (Australia)
2011 Maria Farah (Canada)
2012 Cynthia Moukarzel (Kuwait)
2013 Layla Yarak (Australia)
2014 Lia Saad (UAE)
2015 Cynthia Farah (Australia)
2016 Yosmely Massaad (Venezuela)
2017 Dima Safi (Ivory Coast)
2018 Rachel Younan (Australia)
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
England Test squad
Ben Stokes (captain), Joe Root, James Anderson, Jonny Bairstow, Stuart Broad, Harry Brook, Zak Crawley, Ben Foakes, Jack Leach, Alex Lees, Craig Overton, Ollie Pope, Matthew Potts
Punchy appearance
Roars of support buoyed Mr Johnson in an extremely confident and combative appearance
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
Country-size land deals
US interest in purchasing territory is not as outlandish as it sounds. Here's a look at some big land transactions between nations:
Louisiana Purchase
If Donald Trump is one who aims to broker "a deal of the century", then this was the "deal of the 19th Century". In 1803, the US nearly doubled in size when it bought 2,140,000 square kilometres from France for $15 million.
Florida Purchase Treaty
The US courted Spain for Florida for years. Spain eventually realised its burden in holding on to the territory and in 1819 effectively ceded it to America in a wider border treaty.
Alaska purchase
America's spending spree continued in 1867 when it acquired 1,518,800 km2 of Alaskan land from Russia for $7.2m. Critics panned the government for buying "useless land".
The Philippines
At the end of the Spanish-American War, a provision in the 1898 Treaty of Paris saw Spain surrender the Philippines for a payment of $20 million.
US Virgin Islands
It's not like a US president has never reached a deal with Denmark before. In 1917 the US purchased the Danish West Indies for $25m and renamed them the US Virgin Islands.
Gwadar
The most recent sovereign land purchase was in 1958 when Pakistan bought the southwestern port of Gwadar from Oman for 5.5bn Pakistan rupees.
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What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
The flights: South African Airways flies from Dubai International Airport with a stop in Johannesburg, with prices starting from around Dh4,000 return. Emirates can get you there with a stop in Lusaka from around Dh4,600 return.
The details: Visas are available for 247 Zambian kwacha or US$20 (Dh73) per person on arrival at Livingstone Airport. Single entry into Victoria Falls for international visitors costs 371 kwacha or $30 (Dh110). Microlight flights are available through Batoka Sky, with 15-minute flights costing 2,265 kwacha (Dh680).
Accommodation: The Royal Livingstone Victoria Falls Hotel by Anantara is an ideal place to stay, within walking distance of the falls and right on the Zambezi River. Rooms here start from 6,635 kwacha (Dh2,398) per night, including breakfast, taxes and Wi-Fi. Water arrivals cost from 587 kwacha (Dh212) per person.
List of alleged parties
May 12, 2020: PM and his wife Carrie attend 'work meeting' with at least 17 staff
May 20, 2020: They attend 'bring your own booze party'
Nov 27, 2020: PM gives speech at leaving party for his staff
Dec 10, 2020: Staff party held by then-education secretary Gavin Williamson
Dec 13, 2020: PM and his wife throw a party
Dec 14, 2020: London mayoral candidate Shaun Bailey holds staff event at Conservative Party headquarters
Dec 15, 2020: PM takes part in a staff quiz
Dec 18, 2020: Downing Street Christmas party
The%20pillars%20of%20the%20Dubai%20Metaverse%20Strategy
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About%20My%20Father
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEjari%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERiyadh%2C%20Saudi%20Arabia%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EYazeed%20Al%20Shamsi%2C%20Fahad%20Albedah%2C%20Mohammed%20Alkhelewy%20and%20Khalid%20Almunif%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPropTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%241%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESanabil%20500%20Mena%2C%20Hambro%20Perks'%20Oryx%20Fund%20and%20angel%20investors%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 3.5-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 380hp at 5,800rpm
Torque: 530Nm at 1,300-4,500rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Price: From Dh299,000 ($81,415)
On sale: Now
THE BIO
Favourite author - Paulo Coelho
Favourite holiday destination - Cuba
New York Times or Jordan Times? NYT is a school and JT was my practice field
Role model - My Grandfather
Dream interviewee - Che Guevara
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Global Fungi Facts
• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
• Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered
• Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity
• Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
TOURNAMENT INFO
Fixtures
Sunday January 5 - Oman v UAE
Monday January 6 - UAE v Namibia
Wednesday January 8 - Oman v Namibia
Thursday January 9 - Oman v UAE
Saturday January 11 - UAE v Namibia
Sunday January 12 – Oman v Namibia
UAE squad
Ahmed Raza (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Mohammed Usman, CP Rizwan, Waheed Ahmed, Zawar Farid, Darius D’Silva, Karthik Meiyappan, Jonathan Figy, Vriitya Aravind, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Basil Hameed, Chirag Suri
More on animal trafficking
UAE squad
Esha Oza (captain), Al Maseera Jahangir, Emily Thomas, Heena Hotchandani, Indhuja Nandakumar, Katie Thompson, Lavanya Keny, Mehak Thakur, Michelle Botha, Rinitha Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Siya Gokhale, Sashikala Silva, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish (wicketkeeper) Udeni Kuruppuarachchige, Vaishnave Mahesh.
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – First ODI
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
MATCH INFO
Fixture: Ukraine v Portugal, Monday, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: BeIN Sports
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
The biog
First Job: Abu Dhabi Department of Petroleum in 1974
Current role: Chairperson of Al Maskari Holding since 2008
Career high: Regularly cited on Forbes list of 100 most powerful Arab Businesswomen
Achievement: Helped establish Al Maskari Medical Centre in 1969 in Abu Dhabi’s Western Region
Future plan: Will now concentrate on her charitable work
Countries offering golden visas
UK
Innovator Founder Visa is aimed at those who can demonstrate relevant experience in business and sufficient investment funds to set up and scale up a new business in the UK. It offers permanent residence after three years.
Germany
Investing or establishing a business in Germany offers you a residence permit, which eventually leads to citizenship. The investment must meet an economic need and you have to have lived in Germany for five years to become a citizen.
Italy
The scheme is designed for foreign investors committed to making a significant contribution to the economy. Requires a minimum investment of €250,000 which can rise to €2 million.
Switzerland
Residence Programme offers residence to applicants and their families through economic contributions. The applicant must agree to pay an annual lump sum in tax.
Canada
Start-Up Visa Programme allows foreign entrepreneurs the opportunity to create a business in Canada and apply for permanent residence.
