The Opec meeting at the start of July faces quite a different mood from last year's gatherings. After battling low prices, a coronavirus-induced slump in demand and a cautious recovery, the market's alarm signals are now flashing orange. It is time for the producers' organisation to move on to the next phase of the campaign.
The headline price is striking enough, with Brent crude at more than $76 a barrel on Friday – its highest level since late 2018, bringing it close to breaching a seven-year record.
However, there are plenty of other signs of market tightness.
The discount of US benchmark West Texas Intermediate to Brent now sits at $2, compared to $10 at the last peak in 2018. As American demand picks up while production remains subdued, there is less incentive to export surplus crude.
The premium between September and October WTI futures has widened to more than $1 a barrel, indicating that prompt supplies are strained.
The premium for immediate delivery over longer-dated futures, the situation known as backwardation, encourages traders to empty oil from storage to avoid receiving a lower price later.
Apart from China, surplus inventories built up earlier during the pandemic have almost dissipated. Stocks in developed countries are now below their five-year average before the pandemic. Major traders such as Vitol expect global demand to be back at pre-Covid levels by the second half of next year.
The global economy is picking up as key countries overcome the worst of the pandemic. The global composite purchasing managers' index, a good advance indicator, reached its highest level in more than 15 years in May.
Manufacturing has led the recovery so far as people stuck at homes buy computers and make house improvements.
Now services are starting to pick up in the US and Europe as the pace of vaccinations rises – meaning more car travel to restaurants, malls and cinemas, as well as holidays by road and, increasingly, air.
Concerns remain over the new coronavirus variants, particularly the now-infamous Delta strain, the slow pace of vaccination in many parts of the world and the problem of reopening Asian countries such as Japan that managed to keep infection levels low but have little established immunity.
The key factor still depressing oil demand is the lack of air passengers.
The UK’s problems over its “traffic light” system and quarantine policies indicate how hard restarting mass international travel will be.
Aviation, which in 2019 consumed about 7.5 million barrels per day, is set to recover about 1.5 million bpd next year.
As and when restrictions are substantially eased, there will probably be an initial rush of leisure flights, even if business travel never returns to its pre-pandemic ways.
The planned "green recovery" in Europe and the US is not an immediate threat. Even though sales of petrol and diesel passenger cars probably reached their peak in 2017, and electric vehicles are rapidly gaining market share, this will have only a limited near-term effect on oil consumption.
The effect of climate policies and newly competitive renewables, battery-powered vehicles and others will have a big effect on global petroleum in the coming decades.
For now, the main effect is to discourage investment in new oil supply.
The usual characters among bank analysts are hitting the headlines by forecasting oil prices of $100 a barrel by the second half of next year. However, this depends critically on what Opec does. It will still have 6.9 million bpd in spare capacity in its pocket after July, according to the International Energy Agency's estimates.
Yet, there has still been no breakthrough in the US-Iran talks. It would take several months for any deal to be enforced and for more cargoes to be sold and arrive at destinations, even though some Iranian crude is floating in storage off Asian ports.
Opec’s regular monthly meetings mean it can monitor this situation without needing to pre-empt it.
Estimates for US production growth next year range from 0.5 million bpd to 1.3 million bpd. Canada, Norway, Brazil and new entrant Guyana are gaining too. Opec seems quite confident that US shale producers will never return to pre-pandemic levels of growth. Burnt twice, investors are demanding drillers return cash rather than grow aggressively.
However, the producers' organisation should be wary. They have written off shale at least twice before and it has demonstrated its resilience. A spell of prices at $100 a barrel will result in shale companies generating strong cash flows, and privately held producers will step in even if the public companies stay reticent. Shell, Occidental and others are selling off acreage that more aggressive companies could pick up.
The Opec+ alliance has succeeded better than anyone might have expected in pulling prices back from the brink. Its caution is understandable after such an unprecedented and scarring event, with a lot of uncertainty still ahead.
Apart from a brief pullback in March, prices have risen almost linearly since November, even as producers gradually brought back supply. As Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz has vowed repeatedly to surprise the market, Opec+ should not allow the oil price to become a simple one-way bet for traders and competitors.
With prices running ahead of recovery, now is the time for the organisation to be bolder in regaining its lost market share.
Robin M. Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Voices: How A Great Singer Can Change Your Life
Nick Coleman
Jonathan Cape
Three ways to limit your social media use
Clinical psychologist, Dr Saliha Afridi at The Lighthouse Arabia suggests three easy things you can do every day to cut back on the time you spend online.
1. Put the social media app in a folder on the second or third screen of your phone so it has to remain a conscious decision to open, rather than something your fingers gravitate towards without consideration.
2. Schedule a time to use social media instead of consistently throughout the day. I recommend setting aside certain times of the day or week when you upload pictures or share information.
3. Take a mental snapshot rather than a photo on your phone. Instead of sharing it with your social world, try to absorb the moment, connect with your feeling, experience the moment with all five of your senses. You will have a memory of that moment more vividly and for far longer than if you take a picture of it.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Power: 650hp at 6,750rpm
Torque: 800Nm from 2,500-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Fuel consumption: 11.12L/100km
Price: From Dh796,600
On sale: now
The 10 Questions
- Is there a God?
- How did it all begin?
- What is inside a black hole?
- Can we predict the future?
- Is time travel possible?
- Will we survive on Earth?
- Is there other intelligent life in the universe?
- Should we colonise space?
- Will artificial intelligence outsmart us?
- How do we shape the future?
What is type-1 diabetes
Type 1 diabetes is a genetic and unavoidable condition, rather than the lifestyle-related type 2 diabetes.
It occurs mostly in people under 40 and a result of the pancreas failing to produce enough insulin to regulate blood sugars.
Too much or too little blood sugar can result in an attack where sufferers lose consciousness in serious cases.
Being overweight or obese increases the chances of developing the more common type 2 diabetes.
New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
SPECS
%3Cp%3EEngine%3A%20Supercharged%203.5-litre%20V6%0D%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20400hp%0D%3Cbr%3ETorque%3A%20430Nm%0D%3Cbr%3EOn%20sale%3A%20Now%0D%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh450%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2017 GMC Sierra 1500 Denali
Price, base / as tested Dh207,846 / Dh220,000
Engine 6.2L V8
Transmission Eight-speed automatic
Power 420hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque 624Nm @ 4,100rpm
Fuel economy, combined 13.5L / 100km
THE CLOWN OF GAZA
Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah
Starring: Alaa Meqdad
Rating: 4/5
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Company profile
Name: One Good Thing
Founders: Bridgett Lau and Micheal Cooke
Based in: Dubai
Sector: e-commerce
Size: 5 employees
Stage: Looking for seed funding
Investors: Self-funded and seeking external investors
MATCH INFO
Al Jazira 3 (O Abdulrahman 43', Kenno 82', Mabkhout 90 4')
Al Ain 1 (Laba 39')
Red cards: Bandar Al Ahbabi (Al Ain)
TICKETS
For tickets for the two-day Maharlika Pilipinas Basketball League (MPBL) event, entitled Dubai Invasion 2019, on September 27 and 28 go to www.meraticket.com.
RACE SCHEDULE
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Friday, September 29
First practice: 7am - 8.30am
Second practice: 11am - 12.30pm
Saturday, September 30
Qualifying: 1pm - 2pm
Sunday, October 1
Race: 11am - 1pm
2024%20Dubai%20Marathon%20Results
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWomen%E2%80%99s%20race%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E1.%20Tigist%20Ketema%20(ETH)%202hrs%2016min%207sec%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Ruti%20Aga%20(ETH)%202%3A18%3A09%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20Dera%20Dida%20(ETH)%202%3A19%3A29%0D%3Cbr%3EMen's%20race%3A%0D%3Cbr%3E1.%20Addisu%20Gobena%20(ETH)%202%3A05%3A01%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Lemi%20Dumicha%20(ETH)%202%3A05%3A20%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20DejeneMegersa%20(ETH)%202%3A05%3A42%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
Two-step truce
The UN-brokered ceasefire deal for Hodeidah will be implemented in two stages, with the first to be completed before the New Year begins, according to the Arab Coalition supporting the Yemeni government.
By midnight on December 31, the Houthi rebels will have to withdraw from the ports of Hodeidah, Ras Issa and Al Saqef, coalition officials told The National.
The second stage will be the complete withdrawal of all pro-government forces and rebels from Hodeidah city, to be completed by midnight on January 7.
The process is to be overseen by a Redeployment Co-ordination Committee (RCC) comprising UN monitors and representatives of the government and the rebels.
The agreement also calls the deployment of UN-supervised neutral forces in the city and the establishment of humanitarian corridors to ensure distribution of aid across the country.
Safety 'top priority' for rival hyperloop company
The chief operating officer of Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, Andres de Leon, said his company's hyperloop technology is “ready” and safe.
He said the company prioritised safety throughout its development and, last year, Munich Re, one of the world's largest reinsurance companies, announced it was ready to insure their technology.
“Our levitation, propulsion, and vacuum technology have all been developed [...] over several decades and have been deployed and tested at full scale,” he said in a statement to The National.
“Only once the system has been certified and approved will it move people,” he said.
HyperloopTT has begun designing and engineering processes for its Abu Dhabi projects and hopes to break ground soon.
With no delivery date yet announced, Mr de Leon said timelines had to be considered carefully, as government approval, permits, and regulations could create necessary delays.
if you go
The flights Fly Dubai, Air Arabia, Emirates, Etihad, and Royal Jordanian all offer direct, three-and-a-half-hour flights from the UAE to the Jordanian capital Amman. Alternatively, from June Fly Dubai will offer a new direct service from Dubai to Aqaba in the south of the country. See the airlines’ respective sites for varying prices or search on reliable price-comparison site Skyscanner.
The trip
Jamie Lafferty was a guest of the Jordan Tourist Board. For more information on adventure tourism in Jordan see Visit Jordan. A number of new and established tour companies offer the chance to go caving, rock-climbing, canyoning, and mountaineering in Jordan. Prices vary depending on how many activities you want to do and how many days you plan to stay in the country. Among the leaders are Terhaal, who offer a two-day canyoning trip from Dh845 per person. If you really want to push your limits, contact the Stronger Team. For a more trek-focused trip, KE Adventure offers an eight-day trip from Dh5,300 per person.
Results
4pm: Maiden (Dirt) Dh165,000 1,600m
Winner: Moshaher, Pat Dobbs (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer).
4.35pm: Handicap (D) Dh165,000 2,200m
Winner: Heraldic, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
5.10pm: Maiden (Turf) Dh165,000 1,600m
Winner: Rua Augusta, Harry Bentley, Ahmad bin Harmash.
5.45pm: Handicap (D) Dh190,000 1,200m
Winner: Private’s Cove, Mickael Barzalona, Sandeep Jadhav.
6.20pm: Handicap (T) Dh190,000 1,600m
Winner: Azmaam, Jim Crowley, Musabah Al Muhairi.
6.55pm: Handicap (D) Dh190,000 1,400m
Winner: Bochart, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
7.30pm: Handicap (T) Dh190,000 2,000m
Winner: Rio Tigre, Mickael Barzalona, Sandeep Jadhav.
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
