It is easy to talk about when things return to normal. For the world oil market, there may be no such return. With demand still struggling, Opec needs a plan to balance short-term prices against long-term market share by the time its monitoring committee next meets on September 17.
Various Covid-19 vaccines may be on the way, but doubts remain over the reliability of testing and their eventual efficacy.
Meanwhile, the virus remains frustratingly resilient despite a fall in death rates. The growing rate of infections in India, Indonesia and Iraq appears unstoppable while Australia, Germany, Italy, Spain, Britain and, especially, France have registered a resurgence of cases after having managed to keep things under control.
However, the US, Brazil and Iran were never really on top of the pandemic.
Efforts to reopen schools and universities in many countries have led to a surge in new cases. Most office work continues remotely or at limited occupancy. As the US holiday season ebbs, these factors are causing a renewed slowdown in petrol demand. Air passenger travel is severely depressed, with continued confusion over regulations and the unpredictable appearance of quarantines and travel bans.
Blanket lockdowns in most places will probably not return but rolling closures and depressed social and public activities continue. As companies run out of cash, temporary job losses become permanent and as government financial support winds down, many countries may now be entering a more conventional, shallower but still painful recession.
China’s imports have been strong, although lower in July and August compared with the record hit in June, helping to support the market. But it is questionable how long this will continue as the country clears a backlog of deliveries bought when prices were weaker.
Chinese imports could drop by 1 million barrels per day or more, while India has picked up but is still between 500,000 bpd and 1 million bpd lower than before the pandemic. Japan’s imports are at their lowest since the 1960s, and it and South Korea are both about 600,000 bpd under pre-pandemic levels.
The forward curve continues in contango, where prices for future deliveries are higher than prompt prices. That indicates a relative surplus of current crude and an incentive to continue storing. Saudi Aramco reduced its official selling prices in an unusual Saturday release, with the premium for flagship Arab Light to Asia dropping by $1.40 per barrel.
Opec’s very deep cuts have caused some strain. A hot summer with residents unable to leave on holiday meant record electricity demand in Dubai and, most probably, across the rest of the UAE. Iraq has struggled from cuts in gas supplies to several power plants, and electricity supply deteriorated markedly. As the Middle East experiences cooler weather, such problems will ease. However, it also means less oil consumption at Iraq’s and Saudi Arabia’s power plants.
Iraq, Angola, Nigeria, Russia and Kazakhstan have been under pressure to make additional cuts in August and September to compensate for past overproduction. Baghdad has suggested this make-up period could stretch to November. However, the country has given some mixed messages about whether it will ask for an exemption from cuts in the first quarter of next year.
Later this year, two contending forces may emerge: a continued stagnation in demand as Chinese buying slows and the economic rebound stalls, versus a renewed drop in American output because of natural field declines accompanied by very limited new drilling. The world's oil consumption may not return to levels recorded late last year until 2023.
Last month, the number of active US rigs began to increase after hitting its lowest level since 1940. The temporary shut-ins because of Hurricane Laura should shortly be reversed. Still, there is insufficient drilling to compensate for the fast declines in existing shale wells and the fall in US output will probably not be halted until next year, and until prices are above $50 per barrel.
This points to the danger for Opec+ in assuming the pandemic is an aberration and that current policy only has to be maintained temporarily. To be fair to the group, it has laid out a path for sizeable but diminishing cuts of 5.8 million bpd against its baseline through next year and up to April 2022.
However, Opec+ is clearly not going to suddenly put 5.8 million bpd back on the market in May 2022. So, it will either have to trim its cuts progressively next year or a year and half from now. It will still be producing far less than what it did last year.
Even in 2019, the alliance had cut 1.2 million bpd and agreed on a further 500,000 bpd in December, before the coronavirus struck, amid concerns about weaker demand and competing supplies.
When cuts extend over such a long period, they inevitably shape upstream strategy, delaying plans to expand capacity or cancelling a proposal to give tax breaks and grants for the drilling of additional wells that are ready to produce in 2022.
Even with high compliance and the continuation of cuts, Brent crude may not rise sustainably above $60 per barrel for the next two years. That means a long and hard slog for the major producers.
However, acceptance of a new state of normality is better than trying to push prices higher in the face of reality.
Robin Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Afghanistan Premier League - at a glance
Venue: Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Fixtures:
Tue, Oct 16, 8pm: Kandahar Knights v Kabul Zwanan; Wed, Oct 17, 4pm: Balkh Legends v Nangarhar Leopards; 8pm: Kandahar Knights v Paktia Panthers; Thu, Oct 18, 4pm: Balkh Legends v Kandahar Knights; 8pm: Kabul Zwanan v Paktia Panthers; Fri, Oct 19, 8pm: First semi-final; Sat, Oct 20, 8pm: Second semi-final; Sun, Oct 21, 8pm: final
Table:
1. Balkh Legends 6 5 1 10
2. Paktia Panthers 6 4 2 8
3. Kabul Zwanan 6 3 3 6
4. Nagarhar Leopards 7 2 5 4
5. Kandahar Knights 5 1 4 2
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday (UAE kick-off times)
Borussia Dortmund v Paderborn (11.30pm)
Saturday
Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg (6.30pm)
Werder Bremen v Schalke (6.30pm)
Union Berlin v Borussia Monchengladbach (6.30pm)
Eintracht Frankfurt v Wolfsburg (6.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldof v Bayern Munich (6.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Cologne (9.30pm)
Sunday
Augsburg v Hertha Berlin (6.30pm)
Hoffenheim v Mainz (9pm)
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Brief scores:
Huesca 0
Real Madrid 1
Bale 8'
RESULTS
4pm: Al Bastakiya Listed US$250,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
Winner: Yulong Warrior, Richard Mullen (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer)
4.35pm: Mahab Al Shimaal Group 3 $200,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Jordan Sport, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass
5.10pm: Nad Al Sheba Conditions $200,000 (Turf) 1,200m
Winner: Jungle Cat, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
5.45pm: Burj Nahaar Group 3 $200,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Kimbear, Patrick Dobbs, Doug Watson
6.20pm: Jebel Hatta Group 1 $300,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner: Blair House, James Doyle, Charlie Appleby
6.55pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 $400,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: North America, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
7.30pm: Dubai City of Gold Group 2 $250,000 (T) 2,410m
Winner: Hawkbill, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
'Worse than a prison sentence'
Marie Byrne, a counsellor who volunteers at the UAE government's mental health crisis helpline, said the ordeal the crew had been through would take time to overcome.
“It was worse than a prison sentence, where at least someone can deal with a set amount of time incarcerated," she said.
“They were living in perpetual mystery as to how their futures would pan out, and what that would be.
“Because of coronavirus, the world is very different now to the one they left, that will also have an impact.
“It will not fully register until they are on dry land. Some have not seen their young children grow up while others will have to rebuild relationships.
“It will be a challenge mentally, and to find other work to support their families as they have been out of circulation for so long. Hopefully they will get the care they need when they get home.”
ETFs explained
Exhchange traded funds are bought and sold like shares, but operate as index-tracking funds, passively following their chosen indices, such as the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and the FTSE All World, plus a vast range of smaller exchanges and commodities, such as gold, silver, copper sugar, coffee and oil.
ETFs have zero upfront fees and annual charges as low as 0.07 per cent a year, which means you get to keep more of your returns, as actively managed funds can charge as much as 1.5 per cent a year.
There are thousands to choose from, with the five biggest providers BlackRock’s iShares range, Vanguard, State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs, Deutsche Bank AWM X-trackers and Invesco PowerShares.
Major honours
ARSENAL
BARCELONA
- La Liga - 2013
- Copa del Rey - 2012
- Fifa Club World Cup - 2011
CHELSEA
- Premier League - 2015, 2017
- FA Cup - 2018
- League Cup - 2015
SPAIN
- World Cup - 2010
- European Championship - 2008, 2012
TICKETS
Tickets start at Dh100 for adults, while children can enter free on the opening day. For more information, visit www.mubadalawtc.com.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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What's in the deal?
Agreement aims to boost trade by £25.5bn a year in the long run, compared with a total of £42.6bn in 2024
India will slash levies on medical devices, machinery, cosmetics, soft drinks and lamb.
India will also cut automotive tariffs to 10% under a quota from over 100% currently.
Indian employees in the UK will receive three years exemption from social security payments
India expects 99% of exports to benefit from zero duty, raising opportunities for textiles, marine products, footwear and jewellery
TERMINAL HIGH ALTITUDE AREA DEFENCE (THAAD)
What is THAAD?
It is considered to be the US's most superior missile defence system.
Production:
It was created in 2008.
Speed:
THAAD missiles can travel at over Mach 8, so fast that it is hypersonic.
Abilities:
THAAD is designed to take out ballistic missiles as they are on their downward trajectory towards their target, otherwise known as the "terminal phase".
Purpose:
To protect high-value strategic sites, such as airfields or population centres.
Range:
THAAD can target projectiles inside and outside the Earth's atmosphere, at an altitude of 150 kilometres above the Earth's surface.
Creators:
Lockheed Martin was originally granted the contract to develop the system in 1992. Defence company Raytheon sub-contracts to develop other major parts of the system, such as ground-based radar.
UAE and THAAD:
In 2011, the UAE became the first country outside of the US to buy two THAAD missile defence systems. It then stationed them in 2016, becoming the first Gulf country to do so.
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
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Profile of Foodics
Founders: Ahmad AlZaini and Mosab AlOthmani
Based: Riyadh
Sector: Software
Employees: 150
Amount raised: $8m through seed and Series A - Series B raise ongoing
Funders: Raed Advanced Investment Co, Al-Riyadh Al Walid Investment Co, 500 Falcons, SWM Investment, AlShoaibah SPV, Faith Capital, Technology Investments Co, Savour Holding, Future Resources, Derayah Custody Co.
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Saturday's results
Brighton 1-1 Leicester City
Everton 1-0 Cardiff City
Manchester United 0-0 Crystal Palace
Watford 0-3 Liverpool
West Ham United 0-4 Manchester City
'Tell the Machine Goodnight' by Katie Williams
Penguin Randomhouse
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20Z%20FOLD%204
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F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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1.
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United States
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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7.
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Singapore
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Australia
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9.
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
UAE SQUAD
Ahmed Raza (Captain), Rohan Mustafa, Jonathan Figy, CP Rizwan, Junaid Siddique, Mohammad Usman, Basil Hameed, Zawar Farid, Vriitya Aravind (WK), Waheed Ahmed, Karthik Meiyappan, Zahoor Khan, Darius D'Silva, Chirag Suri
The specs
Engine: Turbocharged four-cylinder 2.7-litre
Power: 325hp
Torque: 500Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh189,700
On sale: now
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
