As I stepped out one chilly evening in Beijing, the fog had an acrid taste. Even after three years of efforts to clean up winter heating by replacing coal with gas, air quality over northern China remains poor.
However, President Xi Jinping announced plans last month for his country to become carbon-neutral by 2060 – a tectonic shift in the campaign against pollution and global climate change.
China’s move is important because of its own huge and still-growing carbon dioxide emissions. It is even more crucial because of the push and shape it will give to climate change policies and low-carbon technology.
The EU was the first major bloc to set out plans in November 2018 to go carbon-neutral by 2050. US Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s platform also proposes a net-zero target for the US by 2050.
As notable as these may be, China’s path is even more vital. If achieved, it would on its own limit global warming to 2.35°C above pre-industrial levels this century, from an expected 2.6°C.
That brings us significantly closer, if not close enough, to the aim of the Paris Agreement in 2015 to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
European greenhouse gas emissions in 2018 stood at 4.4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, having declined by 14 per cent since 2008. America’s 6.7 billion tonnes had dropped more than 4 per cent.
By contrast, China’s 13.6 billion tonnes were up 37 per cent over that period. China’s per-capita emissions are now significantly higher than Europe’s, despite being only half those of the US.
With Mr Xi also announcing plans for carbon dioxide emissions to peak by 2030, we will have an early test of the country’s progress.
However, current trends already suggested a peak by 2025, so a much bigger push will be required to embark on the road to neutrality.
Forty years separate us from Deng Xiaoping’s initial economic reforms that birthed the Chinese behemoth today; in another 40 years, that economy must transform utterly.
A nation that generates about three fifths of its energy from coal must ditch the black stuff. Industries that make 58 per cent of the world’s cement, 56 per cent of its aluminium and 53 per cent of its steel need to clean up or close down.
The central government needs to curtail over-investment by local administrations, who are judged today on economic growth and employment statistics, not carbon or pollution.
It must align the big state coal, chemical and oil groups with the goal of carbon neutrality.
This applies not just at home, but also to its international expansion: coal power stations, not renewables, are the centrepiece of the flagship Belt-and-Road Initiative.
Why would China make such a commitment? The country’s long-term rise depends on the reduction of dangers such as floods, droughts, desertification, melting glaciers, rising seas, air and water pollution and the other stresses on its battered environment.
More pressingly, Beijing’s image has been damaged due to the coronavirus outbreak, confrontation with India, other geopolitical issues and concerns over trade and technology policies.
As the date for President Donald Trump’s planned withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement approaches, China has a chance to seize the climate leadership with Europe and appear as the responsible international stakeholder.
Coal is a secure domestic fuel while imported oil and gas represent a potential Achilles heel.
In contrast, China famously has major resources of important new energy minerals including graphite, lithium and, especially, rare earths, as well as most of the world’s capacity to process them.
Renewable and nuclear power are indigenous sources of energy.
The massive investment required would raise economic growth by almost 5 per cent later this decade, according to analysis by Cambridge Econometrics. China’s falling carbon footprint could preserve its access to European markets. In turn, it might restrict imports from higher-carbon trading partners.
Beyond domestic security is the urge to dominate the new energy economy – not through fossil fuel exports, as the Trump administration has aspired, but by taking the lead in new technology.
A single Chinese company, Longi Green Energy, makes a quarter of the world’s solar silicon wafers, while the country makes more than 70 per cent of solar panels and 73 per cent of lithium ion batteries.
Still, there are gaps. The country’s wind turbine makers have so far largely failed to break out of their home market. China has done little in carbon capture and storage despite its massive coal, chemicals, steel and cement industries that must be cleaned up. It is the world’s biggest producer of hydrogen, the emerging clean energy carrier, but produces most of this from coal. So far, it has lagged behind Europe and Japan in developing a clean hydrogen strategy.
An export-focused low-carbon transformation would bring the costs of green energy technology down globally and help cut emissions outside China. However, such an approach faces strengthening headwinds from trade policy in the US, Europe and India, which are seeking to build up their own manufacturing bases, bring back jobs to their own shores and avoid an overreliance on the Middle Kingdom.
Mr Xi’s personal commitment signals confidence that China can be on track over the next decade or so. Yet, last week’s Opec World Oil Outlook projected continued oil consumption growth in the country up to 2045. This contradiction should concern oil exporters, whose future growth plans bet against Beijing.
Robin Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
23-man shortlist for next six Hall of Fame inductees
Tony Adams, David Beckham, Dennis Bergkamp, Sol Campbell, Eric Cantona, Andrew Cole, Ashley Cole, Didier Drogba, Les Ferdinand, Rio Ferdinand, Robbie Fowler, Steven Gerrard, Roy Keane, Frank Lampard, Matt Le Tissier, Michael Owen, Peter Schmeichel, Paul Scholes, John Terry, Robin van Persie, Nemanja Vidic, Patrick Viera, Ian Wright.
'Downton Abbey: A New Era'
Director: Simon Curtis
Cast: Hugh Bonneville, Elizabeth McGovern, Maggie Smith, Michelle Dockery, Laura Carmichael, Jim Carter and Phyllis Logan
Rating: 4/5
Western Clubs Champions League:
- Friday, Sep 8 - Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Bahrain
- Friday, Sep 15 – Kandy v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
- Friday, Sep 22 – Kandy v Bahrain
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Opening day UAE Premiership fixtures, Friday, September 22:
- Dubai Sports City Eagles v Dubai Exiles
- Dubai Hurricanes v Abu Dhabi Saracens
- Jebel Ali Dragons v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
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Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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2.
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
Mazen Abukhater, principal and actuary at global consultancy Mercer, Middle East, says the company’s Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index - which benchmarks 34 pension schemes across the globe to assess their adequacy, sustainability and integrity - included Saudi Arabia for the first time this year to offer a glimpse into the region.
The index highlighted fundamental issues for all 34 countries, such as a rapid ageing population and a low growth / low interest environment putting pressure on expected returns. It also highlighted the increasing popularity around the world of defined contribution schemes.
“Average life expectancy has been increasing by about three years every 10 years. Someone born in 1947 is expected to live until 85 whereas someone born in 2007 is expected to live to 103,” Mr Abukhater told the Mena Pensions Conference.
“Are our systems equipped to handle these kind of life expectancies in the future? If so many people retire at 60, they are going to be in retirement for 43 years – so we need to adapt our retirement age to our changing life expectancy.”
Saudi Arabia came in the middle of Mercer’s ranking with a score of 58.9. The report said the country's index could be raised by improving the minimum level of support for the poorest aged individuals and increasing the labour force participation rate at older ages as life expectancies rise.
Mr Abukhater said the challenges of an ageing population, increased life expectancy and some individuals relying solely on their government for financial support in their retirement years will put the system under strain.
“To relieve that pressure, governments need to consider whether it is time to switch to a defined contribution scheme so that individuals can supplement their own future with the help of government support,” he said.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Teachers' pay - what you need to know
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues
What She Ate: Six Remarkable Women & the Food That Tells Their Stories
Laura Shapiro
Fourth Estate
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Which honey takes your fancy?
Al Ghaf Honey
The Al Ghaf tree is a local desert tree which bears the harsh summers with drought and high temperatures. From the rich flowers, bees that pollinate this tree can produce delicious red colour honey in June and July each year
Sidr Honey
The Sidr tree is an evergreen tree with long and strong forked branches. The blossom from this tree is called Yabyab, which provides rich food for bees to produce honey in October and November. This honey is the most expensive, but tastiest
Samar Honey
The Samar tree trunk, leaves and blossom contains Barm which is the secret of healing. You can enjoy the best types of honey from this tree every year in May and June. It is an historical witness to the life of the Emirati nation which represents the harsh desert and mountain environments
