Last week’s Opec meeting was the most challenging since April, when the current deal on production cuts came together. In the end, a sensible compromise surmounted the obstacles. Still, the organisation needs to plan ahead for 2022.
The latest meeting was delayed with reports of some tactical disagreements between members. Opec had a range of choices in the face of a worsening pandemic in the US and Europe, forecasts of minimal reductions of overstuffed inventories in the first quarter and a resurgence of Libyan output.
From this coming January, Opec could cut output deeper, an unlikely prospect with some members disagreeing and the oil price already having recovered a little with rising optimism as vaccines are set to be deployed in the UK and other countries. It could bring back two million barrels per day of output, as had been baked into the arrangement since April. The planned increase in production could be delayed until the second or even third quarter. Or, Opec could find a compromise position, and that was eventually what happened.
Output cuts will be eased gradually from January, with the current notional 7.7 million bpd reduced to 7.2 million bpd, followed by monthly meetings to agree whether to add a further 0.5 million bpd each month to April, or to hold off on further increases. The increases are shared among the members in proportion to their baseline production, relatively favouring Russia and Saudi Arabia who were assigned higher benchmarks in the original negotiation.
Although it had been said traders had already priced in an extension of the cuts, oil prices rose on the news of the phased increase, with Brent approaching $50 per barrel for the first time since March. The strengthening of backwardation in the futures curve – with prompt prices higher than for later delivery – will encourage the clearance of excess storage.
Although it means more frequent debate and doubt, this flexible, phased, and monthly approach is sensible in the face of a tangible but uncertain market recovery. The idea will be to avoid a further price slump while continuing to regain market share. That is important for keeping members, who have been chafing at the severity of the cuts, onboard.
Still, it will have to be seen, whether serially under-complying members, such as Russia and Iraq, take advantage of a higher allocation to make up past shortfalls, or whether they simply pocket the gain and continue overproducing.
At this rate of progress, the cuts would be finally eliminated around April 2022. That is indeed the end date for the current deal, though it was not meant to be phased out in this fashion. Instead, the original scheme would have had 5.8 million bpd of cuts remaining by then, with a further likely extension to avoid suddenly overwhelming the market.
The medium-term goal must be to return to the status quo ante of late 2019. That is rendered more difficult by the likely slow and patchy logistics of rolling out several new and demanding vaccines to a large proportion of some 7.8 billion people. It relies on a relative return to “normality”, without a long-term impact of economic damage and changed habits of commuting and leisure and business travel.
On the supply side, it depends on how quickly American shale companies return to drilling in response to stronger prices, whether Libyan output is sustained, whether sanctions on Iran are eased, and whether there might be a revival in Venezuela. S&P Platts expects US crude production to reach a low in the middle of next year before rising again.
In the long-term, the pandemic has been a very unwelcome interruption to the process of Opec adjustment to a new reality. Cuts under the Opec+ framework since the start of 2017 helped support prices after the late-2014 crash, but US shale output remained relatively solid. The organisation was aware of the threat of both US competition and eventual “peak oil demand”.
Since then, the outlook has grown cloudier. At least a year of oil demand growth has been lost. Progress in electric vehicles has continued. BP has proclaimed that we may already have passed the all-time high in oil consumption, while it, Shell, Total, and other petroleum giants have committed to eventual decarbonisation of their businesses. The EU, UK, China, South Korea, Japan, and the incoming Biden administration in the US all have targets for carbon neutrality between 2050 and 2060.
On the other hand, diminishing investment in new production and greater capital discipline by shale firms creates the possibility of at least an interim shortfall. On Thursday, Denmark, the EU’s largest oil producer, said it would cease new exploration and that its hydrocarbon extraction would wind down by 2050.
Making hay while the sun shines, low-cost Opec producers with long reserves lives and favourable investment conditions, could seize the opportunity to boost capacity and market share. The benefits of this go beyond just higher output and revenues: more associated gas, additional investment in the local economy, additional feedstock for petrochemicals, and greater political influence both within Opec+ and on the world stage.
Meanwhile, declining or politically-constrained Opec+ adherents may become discontented. Less significant when the market is under-supplied, their cooperation is still required at times of glut.
The long-term is made up of a series of short terms. Gains in output have to be made in a way that avoids overwhelming the market or storage or triggering a destructive price war. Outlining a staged, adjustable process is the first step.
Robin M. Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Kamindu Mendis bio
Full name: Pasqual Handi Kamindu Dilanka Mendis
Born: September 30, 1998
Age: 20 years and 26 days
Nationality: Sri Lankan
Major teams Sri Lanka's Under 19 team
Batting style: Left-hander
Bowling style: Right-arm off-spin and slow left-arm orthodox (that's right!)
The specs: 2018 Mercedes-AMG C63 S Cabriolet
Price, base: Dh429,090
Engine 4.0-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission Seven-speed automatic
Power 510hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque 700Nm @ 1,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 9.2L / 100km
Scream%20VI
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KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Zakat definitions
Zakat: an Arabic word meaning ‘to cleanse’ or ‘purification’.
Nisab: the minimum amount that a Muslim must have before being obliged to pay zakat. Traditionally, the nisab threshold was 87.48 grams of gold, or 612.36 grams of silver. The monetary value of the nisab therefore varies by current prices and currencies.
Zakat Al Mal: the ‘cleansing’ of wealth, as one of the five pillars of Islam; a spiritual duty for all Muslims meeting the ‘nisab’ wealth criteria in a lunar year, to pay 2.5 per cent of their wealth in alms to the deserving and needy.
Zakat Al Fitr: a donation to charity given during Ramadan, before Eid Al Fitr, in the form of food. Every adult Muslim who possesses food in excess of the needs of themselves and their family must pay two qadahs (an old measure just over 2 kilograms) of flour, wheat, barley or rice from each person in a household, as a minimum.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-finals, first leg
Liverpool v Roma
When: April 24, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Anfield, Liverpool
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
EPL's youngest
- Ethan Nwaneri (Arsenal)
15 years, 181 days old
- Max Dowman (Arsenal)
15 years, 235 days old
- Jeremy Monga (Leicester)
15 years, 271 days old
- Harvey Elliott (Fulham)
16 years, 30 days old
- Matthew Briggs (Fulham)
16 years, 68 days old
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
Dr Amal Khalid Alias revealed a recent case of a woman with daughters, who specifically wanted a boy.
A semen analysis of the father showed abnormal sperm so the couple required IVF.
Out of 21 eggs collected, six were unused leaving 15 suitable for IVF.
A specific procedure was used, called intracytoplasmic sperm injection where a single sperm cell is inserted into the egg.
On day three of the process, 14 embryos were biopsied for gender selection.
The next day, a pre-implantation genetic report revealed four normal male embryos, three female and seven abnormal samples.
Day five of the treatment saw two male embryos transferred to the patient.
The woman recorded a positive pregnancy test two weeks later.
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THE DETAILS
Deadpool 2
Dir: David Leitch
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Josh Brolin, Justin Dennison, Zazie Beetz
Four stars
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Lamsa
Founder: Badr Ward
Launched: 2014
Employees: 60
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: EdTech
Funding to date: $15 million
Emirates exiles
Will Wilson is not the first player to have attained high-class representative honours after first learning to play rugby on the playing fields of UAE.
Jonny Macdonald
Abu Dhabi-born and raised, the current Jebel Ali Dragons assistant coach was selected to play for Scotland at the Hong Kong Sevens in 2011.
Jordan Onojaife
Having started rugby by chance when the Jumeirah College team were short of players, he later won the World Under 20 Championship with England.
Devante Onojaife
Followed older brother Jordan into England age-group rugby, as well as the pro game at Northampton Saints, but recently switched allegiance to Scotland.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Results
2pm: Handicap Dh 90,000 1,800m; Winner: Majestic Thunder, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer).
2.30pm: Handicap Dh120,000 1,950m; Winner: Just A Penny, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson.
3pm: Handicap Dh105,000 1,600m; Winner: Native Appeal, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
3.30pm: Jebel Ali Classic Conditions Dh300,000 1,400m; Winner: Thegreatcollection, Adrie de Vries, Doug Watson.
4pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m; Winner: Oktalgano, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer.
4.30pm: Conditions Dh250,000 1,400m; Winner: Madame Ellingtina, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
5pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m; Winner: Mystery Land, Fabrice Veron, Helal Al Alawi.
5.30pm: Handicap Dh85,000 1,000m; Winner: Shanaghai City, Jesus Rosales, Rashed Bouresly.
THE BIO
Ms Davison came to Dubai from Kerala after her marriage in 1996 when she was 21-years-old
Since 2001, Ms Davison has worked at many affordable schools such as Our Own English High School in Sharjah, and The Apple International School and Amled School in Dubai
Favourite Book: The Alchemist
Favourite quote: Failing to prepare is preparing to fail
Favourite place to Travel to: Vienna
Favourite cuisine: Italian food
Favourite Movie : Scent of a Woman
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
BELGIUM%20SQUAD
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The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
Company%20profile
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Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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Why your domicile status is important
Your UK residence status is assessed using the statutory residence test. While your residence status – ie where you live - is assessed every year, your domicile status is assessed over your lifetime.
Your domicile of origin generally comes from your parents and if your parents were not married, then it is decided by your father. Your domicile is generally the country your father considered his permanent home when you were born.
UK residents who have their permanent home ("domicile") outside the UK may not have to pay UK tax on foreign income. For example, they do not pay tax on foreign income or gains if they are less than £2,000 in the tax year and do not transfer that gain to a UK bank account.
A UK-domiciled person, however, is liable for UK tax on their worldwide income and gains when they are resident in the UK.
The specs: 2018 Jaguar F-Type Convertible
Price, base / as tested: Dh283,080 / Dh318,465
Engine: 2.0-litre inline four-cylinder
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 295hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm @ 1,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.2L / 100km
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
How to tell if your child is being bullied at school
Sudden change in behaviour or displays higher levels of stress or anxiety
Shows signs of depression or isolation
Ability to sleep well diminishes
Academic performance begins to deteriorate
Changes in eating habits
Struggles to concentrate
Refuses to go to school
Behaviour changes and is aggressive towards siblings
Begins to use language they do not normally use
Ticket prices
- Golden circle - Dh995
- Floor Standing - Dh495
- Lower Bowl Platinum - Dh95
- Lower Bowl premium - Dh795
- Lower Bowl Plus - Dh695
- Lower Bowl Standard- Dh595
- Upper Bowl Premium - Dh395
- Upper Bowl standard - Dh295
