The once reliable Democratic-voting state of West Virginia is now solidly Republican. Areas of north-east France strongly back the far-right National Rally. Parts of the English Midlands and north supported Brexit and turned from Labour to the Conservatives in the 2019 election. The common theme linking these areas is important for future national and global energy politics.
These regions were, and in the case of West Virginia still are, major coal-mining centres. Left behind by the long, slow decline of coal and its associated heavy industry, they have turned to right-wing and populist politicians promising easy but false solutions.
Now imagine the replication of this issue on a global scale. Countries representing more than 75 per cent of world carbon dioxide emissions have committed to net-zero targets by 2050 or 2060, including the EU, the UK, China, Japan, South Korea and, most likely, the US under Joe Biden, who will be sworn in as US president on Wednesday. A new graduate today can expect to be working in a near-zero carbon world well before retirement.
Coal is the most exposed fuel: high carbon, polluting and dangerous in other ways, and easily replaced by renewable energy, nuclear or gas power. Coal mining employs about 50,000 Americans, 50,000 Australians, 80,000 Poles, about half a million Indians and about five million Chinese. These are not particularly large numbers in proportion to total employment, but they are concentrated in certain areas and support local economies.
The international picture for oil and gas is more challenging. Although employment is lower in these capital-intensive industries, they sustain the government budgets and economies of entire countries.
Oil and gas will be valuable sources of energy and feedstock beyond 2050. They will focus on non-emitting uses such as petrochemicals, hydrogen generation and power generation with carbon capture and storage.
But the total quantities extracted, particularly of oil, will probably be much less while prices will be lower. The major low-cost producers such as the GCC should increase their share of the market, and so can countries such as Iraq, Iran and Russia if they invest sufficiently and lower the carbon footprint of their upstream industries.
Nevertheless, margins and total revenue will be significantly reduced, especially relative to growing populations. Hydrocarbons will no longer suffice as the economic motor.
The oil price crash in late 2014 and the coronavirus-induced slump last year have been dry runs for a transition away from petroleum. Opec’s oil export revenue dropped from $1.2 trillion in 2012 to $322 billion in 2020.
Demand has probably yet to hit a record high. Cycles of underinvestment could episodically fuel prices. However, this will only trigger further replacement by non-fossil fuel technology.
The Opec+ agreement on production cuts has succeeded in stabilising the market for now. But indefinite continuation will result in the rapid loss of market share – to competing producers such as the US in the short-term and electric vehicles and other alternatives in the long term.
This relatively brief episode of low prices has still put an economic strain on all oil exporters, sometimes compounded by political problems.
Still, some countries, notably the UAE and Saudi Arabia, have made quite significant steps in improving the business environment and investing in new industries. Angola and Oman have embarked on necessary but painful and challenging reforms.
Others, such as Algeria, Kuwait and Russia, have settled for uncomfortable stagnation.
A fourth group – notably Libya, Venezuela, Iran and Iraq – is struggling through crisis. And a final set that is emerging as oil and gas producers – countries such as Guyana, Surinam, Mozambique, Tanzania and Uganda – faces a sudden recalibration of expectations and horizons.
Even those that do realise the magnitude of the challenge have to move urgently. 2050 may seem far away but it is practically tomorrow in terms of creating large industries, educating a new generation and transforming the economic structure.
The diminishing economic role of fossil fuels could leave behind spots of depression on the world map, with far-reaching and unpredictable social and political consequences.
Some petroleum exporters such as Norway and Malaysia already have diversified economies.
The relatively small populations and large sovereign wealth savings of others allow a more gradual shift. Those countries that do not successfully adapt face a range of outcomes. On the one hand, they might slip gradually into poverty or, at best, mediocrity. On the other, they could undergo radical and, perhaps, violent change or even collapse.
Venezuela has already previewed this outcome. What was once the wealthiest and most democratic state in Latin America has over the past two decades suffered the worst economic ruin any country has experienced in peacetime.
When part of a country loses its economic lifeblood, there are at least partial remedies. The more capable, ambitious and young move elsewhere. The government provides aid and local development funds. Eventually, as in some former industrial areas of Europe, new businesses and livelihoods spring up.
The Netherlands turned its coal mining company, DSM, into a maker of chemicals, then pharmaceuticals and advanced materials, employing the former miners.
Nations have few such parachutes. Wealthy Venezuelans can hide in gated communities or move to Miami, but the global climate is not friendly to refugees, even less to perceived economic migrants.
Some parts of the international community, while prolific consumers of fossil fuels themselves, may not have much sympathy or compensation for states they consider as climate villains.
I have suggested before that one role for a reimagined Opec could be to guide its members to low-carbon prosperity. Other oil-producing states, notably Norway, are willing to share their expertise. A just transition is not just morally preferable but offers a more stable and successful future world.
Robin Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
DUBAI WORLD CUP CARNIVAL CARD
6.30pm Handicap US$135,000 (Turf) 2,410m
7.05pm UAE 1000 Guineas Listed $250,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.40pm Dubai Dash Listed $175,000 (T) 1,000m
8.15pm Al Bastakiya Trial Conditions $100,000 (D) 1.900m
8.50pm Al Fahidi Fort Group Two $250,000 (T) 1,400m
9.25pm Handicap $135,000 (D) 2,000m
The National selections
6.30pm: Gifts Of Gold
7.05pm Final Song
7.40pm Equilateral
8.15pm Dark Of Night
8.50pm Mythical Magic
9.25pm Franz Kafka
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Infobox
Western Region Asia Cup Qualifier, Al Amerat, Oman
The two finalists advance to the next stage of qualifying, in Malaysia in August
Results
UAE beat Iran by 10 wickets
Kuwait beat Saudi Arabia by eight wickets
Oman beat Bahrain by nine wickets
Qatar beat Maldives by 106 runs
Monday fixtures
UAE v Kuwait, Iran v Saudi Arabia, Oman v Qatar, Maldives v Bahrain
AndhaDhun
Director: Sriram Raghavan
Producer: Matchbox Pictures, Viacom18
Cast: Ayushmann Khurrana, Tabu, Radhika Apte, Anil Dhawan
Rating: 3.5/5
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
Race%20card
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Results
6.30pm: Maiden Dh165,000 (Dirt) 1,400m. Winner: Rio Angie, Pat Dobbs (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer).
7.05pm: Handicap Dh170,000 (D) 1,600m. Winner: Trenchard, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
7.40pm: Maiden Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m. Winner: Mulfit, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
8.15pm: Handicap Dh210,000 (D) 1,200m. Winner: Waady, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson.
8.50pm: Handicap Dh210,000 (D) 2,000m. Winner: Tried And True, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
9.25pm:Handicap Dh185,000 (D) 1,400m. Winner: Midnight Sands, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
England's all-time record goalscorers:
Wayne Rooney 53
Bobby Charlton 49
Gary Lineker 48
Jimmy Greaves 44
Michael Owen 40
Tom Finney 30
Nat Lofthouse 30
Alan Shearer 30
Viv Woodward 29
Frank Lampard 29
Yemen's Bahais and the charges they often face
The Baha'i faith was made known in Yemen in the 19th century, first introduced by an Iranian man named Ali Muhammad Al Shirazi, considered the Herald of the Baha'i faith in 1844.
The Baha'i faith has had a growing number of followers in recent years despite persecution in Yemen and Iran.
Today, some 2,000 Baha'is reside in Yemen, according to Insaf.
"The 24 defendants represented by the House of Justice, which has intelligence outfits from the uS and the UK working to carry out an espionage scheme in Yemen under the guise of religion.. aimed to impant and found the Bahai sect on Yemeni soil by bringing foreign Bahais from abroad and homing them in Yemen," the charge sheet said.
Baha'Ullah, the founder of the Bahai faith, was exiled by the Ottoman Empire in 1868 from Iran to what is now Israel. Now, the Bahai faith's highest governing body, known as the Universal House of Justice, is based in the Israeli city of Haifa, which the Bahais turn towards during prayer.
The Houthis cite this as collective "evidence" of Bahai "links" to Israel - which the Houthis consider their enemy.
Women & Power: A Manifesto
Mary Beard
Profile Books and London Review of Books
PRESIDENTS CUP
Draw for Presidents Cup fourball matches on Thursday (Internationals first mention). All times UAE:
02.32am (Thursday): Marc Leishman/Joaquin Niemann v Tiger Woods/Justin Thomas
02.47am (Thursday): Adam Hadwin/Im Sung-jae v Xander Schauffele/Patrick Cantlay
03.02am (Thursday): Adam Scott/An Byeong-hun v Bryson DeChambeau/Tony Finau
03.17am (Thursday): Hideki Matsuyama/CT Pan v Webb Simpson/Patrick Reed
03.32am (Thursday): Abraham Ancer/Louis Oosthuizen v Dustin Johnson/Gary Woodland
MATCH INFO
Syria v Australia
2018 World Cup qualifying: Asia fourth round play-off first leg
Venue: Hang Jebat Stadium (Malacca, Malayisa)
Kick-off: Thursday, 4.30pm (UAE)
Watch: beIN Sports HD
* Second leg in Australia scheduled for October 10
Places to go for free coffee
- Cherish Cafe Dubai, Dubai Investment Park, are giving away free coffees all day.
- La Terrace, Four Points by Sheraton Bur Dubai, are serving their first 50 guests one coffee and four bite-sized cakes
- Wild & The Moon will be giving away a free espresso with every purchase on International Coffee Day
- Orange Wheels welcome parents are to sit, relax and enjoy goodies at ‘Café O’ along with a free coffee
Profile
Company: Libra Project
Based: Masdar City, ADGM, London and Delaware
Launch year: 2017
Size: A team of 12 with six employed full-time
Sector: Renewable energy
Funding: $500,000 in Series A funding from family and friends in 2018. A Series B round looking to raise $1.5m is now live.
Virtual banks explained
What is a virtual bank?
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority defines it as a bank that delivers services through the internet or other electronic channels instead of physical branches. That means not only facilitating payments but accepting deposits and making loans, just like traditional ones. Other terms used interchangeably include digital or digital-only banks or neobanks. By contrast, so-called digital wallets or e-wallets such as Apple Pay, PayPal or Google Pay usually serve as intermediaries between a consumer’s traditional account or credit card and a merchant, usually via a smartphone or computer.
What’s the draw in Asia?
Hundreds of millions of people under-served by traditional institutions, for one thing. In China, India and elsewhere, digital wallets such as Alipay, WeChat Pay and Paytm have already become ubiquitous, offering millions of people an easy way to store and spend their money via mobile phone. Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines are also among the world’s biggest under-banked countries; together they have almost half a billion people.
Is Hong Kong short of banks?
No, but the city is among the most cash-reliant major economies, leaving room for newcomers to disrupt the entrenched industry. Ant Financial, an Alibaba Group Holding affiliate that runs Alipay and MYBank, and Tencent Holdings, the company behind WeBank and WeChat Pay, are among the owners of the eight ventures licensed to create virtual banks in Hong Kong, with operations expected to start as early as the end of the year.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
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Secret Nation: The Hidden Armenians of Turkey
Avedis Hadjian, (IB Tauris)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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