Economists, investment banks and other analysts have been debating early on in the coronavirus crisis a curious abstract phenomenon: the shape of economic recovery. Various theories propound a U, V, W, L shape, or more exotic shapes, a square root or the Nike swoosh. What does the geometry of recovery mean for the energy industry?
The concepts about the shape of a recovery date back to earlier recessions. Global economic activity has gone into its steepest and fastest plunge ever. Once the virus is largely contained, or when a cure or vaccine is found, will the economy quickly rebound to pre-viral levels – a V-shaped recovery? Will it go into a prolonged slump before reviving (a U)? Will there be a double-dip W-shaped recession – either because the outbreak rebounds as lockdown measures are eased and have to be re-imposed, or because debt and dislocation bring a subsequent financial crisis? A series of Ws, when waves of pandemic recur for years to come? Maybe no recovery, in an L-shape – a steep drop followed by prolonged stagnation? Or, a square root sign – a sharp dip, followed by some recovery before flatlining?
Most forecasters for now seem to go with the V-shape, and then show a few more pessimistic scenarios. This is indicative of a natural human tendency to assume a return to perceived normality as a base-case. Assets and infrastructure remain intact, the crisis has been short-lived so far, and governments have poured trillions of dollars into keeping businesses liquid, preserving jobs and keeping ordinary people from financial ruin.
Former US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has said banks are stronger today than in the global financial crisis, and that this downturn will be much shorter than in the 1930s. Stock markets seem to agree: the S&P500 is back to the levels of May 2019. The severest economic crisis since the Great Depression is treated as costing us just a year.
But as my colleague at Columbia University’s global energy centre, and former ADIA Global Head of Research Christof Rühl observes, it’s concerning that everyone’s forecasts keep getting worse. The recoveries will not be the same shape and timing everywhere: as Spain and Italy seem over the worst, Russia and Brazil’s epidemics are accelerating. What shape would a Chinese V, an American W and a Russian L add up to?
China, first-stricken, has mostly contained the virus with a strict national effort, even though it flares up again in places. But although business is reviving, it now faces the impact on its main export markets: last year, North America took 20 per cent of its goods, Europe 20 per cent, and oil exporters, badly hit by the slump in prices, another 10 per cent.
The shape of the energy business’s recovery is triply uncertain. Energy use depends on economic activity, but the type of energy used varies greatly. Oil demand in aviation and commuting has suffered worst. Petrol use is now picking up again as lockdowns are eased in China, the US, the UK and the Gulf, and Chevron chief executive Mike Wirth said, “It would appear the market has found a bottom”. But the industry now faces a likely slowdown in trade which will hit diesel for lorries and fuel oil for ships.
Natural gas was in a slump even last year but has been hit less by the virus as people still need to heat their homes and power their laptops. Ultra-cheap gas has been able to keep squeezing out dirty coal.
Renewable energy has coped best of all, because of its near-zero operating costs and, often, priority access to the grid. Some projects have been delayed by practical issues, but post-viral stimulus spending is likely to focus heavily on green energy.
Secondly, ideas about recovery themselves affect the oil market. The Opec+ group is in the middle of cutting almost 10 million barrels per day to avoid swamping the market, and US and Canadian producers have also cut back sharply as their output has become unprofitable. But with a modest recovery in West Texas prices to almost $30 per barrel, some companies have already begun turning their wells back on. Higher prices will make it harder for Opec+ to agree on extending current cuts to the year’s end and will encourage some members to “cheat” on their targets.
Such behaviour, and the massive overhang of inventories, could limit oil prices for an extended period. Despite the dismal demand situation, lower-cost producers could eventually benefit if their competitors have been driven out of business. The path of recovery for oil-producing companies and even countries is not necessarily the same as that for the industry.
Thirdly, habits and work patterns are likely to be durably changed. About 86 per cent of people surveyed said they would delay air travel even after coronavirus is largely contained. Companies and employees are likely to warm to working at home, at least part-time, and eschew costly and time-consuming conferences in physical locations.
I have attended more online conferences and webinars in the past month than on-site events in a year, more cheaply and comfortably – even if they lack the elements of human interaction and serendipity. For a while, commuters will prefer private vehicles to public transport, increasing fuel use, but that will ebb as cost and congestion push people back to buses and metros.
Simple illustrations of the path of recovery are useful, if not taken too literally. In this messy world, flexibility, resilience, and an eye for opportunities are more useful than a rigid long-term strategy. U, V, W, L spell danger for many, but success for some.
Robin M. Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Profile of RentSher
Started: October 2015 in India, November 2016 in UAE
Founders: Harsh Dhand; Vaibhav and Purvashi Doshi
Based: Bangalore, India and Dubai, UAE
Sector: Online rental marketplace
Size: 40 employees
Investment: $2 million
Profile box
Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
Results
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (Dirt) 1,600m; Winner: RB Kings Bay, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
7.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: AF Ensito, Fernando Jara, Mohamed Daggash
8pm: Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,400m; Winner: AF Sourouh, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
8.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,800m; Winner: Baaher, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
9pm: Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Mootahady, Antonio Fresu, Eric Lemartinel
9.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh70,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Dubai Canal, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar
10pm: Al Ain Cup – Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Harrab, Bernardo Pinheiro, Majed Al Jahouri
OPENING FIXTURES
Saturday September 12
Crystal Palace v Southampton
Fulham v Arsenal
Liverpool v Leeds United
Tottenham v Everton
West Brom v Leicester
West Ham v Newcastle
Monday September 14
Brighton v Chelsea
Sheffield United v Wolves
To be rescheduled
Burnley v Manchester United
Manchester City v Aston Villa
Naga
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GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
LEADERBOARD
%3Cp%3E-19%20T%20Fleetwood%20(Eng)%3B%20-18%20R%20McIlroy%20(NI)%2C%20T%20Lawrence%20(SA)%3B%20-16%20J%20Smith%3B%20-15%20F%20Molinari%20(Ita)%3B%20-14%20Z%20Lombard%20(SA)%2C%20S%20Crocker%20(US)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESelected%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E-11%20A%20Meronk%20(Pol)%3B%20-10%20E%20Ferguson%20(Sco)%3B%20-8%20R%20Fox%20(NZ)%20-7%20L%20Donald%20(Eng)%3B%20-5%20T%20McKibbin%20(NI)%2C%20N%20Hoejgaard%20(Den)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
One-off T20 International: UAE v Australia
When: Monday, October 22, 2pm start
Where: Abu Dhabi Cricket, Oval 1
Tickets: Admission is free
Australia squad: Aaron Finch (captain), Mitch Marsh, Alex Carey, Ashton Agar, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Chris Lynn, Nathan Lyon, Glenn Maxwell, Ben McDermott, Darcy Short, Billy Stanlake, Mitchell Starc, Andrew Tye, Adam Zampa, Peter Siddle
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
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What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
SPAIN SQUAD
Goalkeepers Simon (Athletic Bilbao), De Gea (Manchester United), Sanchez (Brighton)
Defenders Gaya (Valencia), Alba (Barcelona), P Torres (Villarreal), Laporte (Manchester City), Garcia (Manchester City), D Llorente (Leeds), Azpilicueta (Chelsea)
Midfielders Busquets (Barcelona), Rodri (Manchester City), Pedri (Barcelona), Thiago (Liverpool), Koke (Atletico Madrid), Ruiz (Napoli), M Llorente (Atletico Madrid)
Forwards: Olmo (RB Leipzig), Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad), Morata (Juventus), Moreno (Villarreal), F Torres (Manchester City), Traore (Wolves), Sarabia (PSG)
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle%20front-axle%20electric%20motor%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E218hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E330Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20automatic%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20touring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E402km%20(claimed)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh215%2C000%20(estimate)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeptember%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
At a glance - Zayed Sustainability Prize 2020
Launched: 2008
Categories: Health, energy, water, food, global high schools
Prize: Dh2.2 million (Dh360,000 for global high schools category)
Winners’ announcement: Monday, January 13
Impact in numbers
335 million people positively impacted by projects
430,000 jobs created
10 million people given access to clean and affordable drinking water
50 million homes powered by renewable energy
6.5 billion litres of water saved
26 million school children given solar lighting
Essentials
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Malaysia Airlines all fly direct from the UAE to Kuala Lumpur and on to Penang from about Dh2,300 return, including taxes.
Where to stay
In Kuala Lumpur, Element is a recently opened, futuristic hotel high up in a Norman Foster-designed skyscraper. Rooms cost from Dh400 per night, including taxes. Hotel Stripes, also in KL, is a great value design hotel, with an infinity rooftop pool. Rooms cost from Dh310, including taxes.
In Penang, Ren i Tang is a boutique b&b in what was once an ancient Chinese Medicine Hall in the centre of Little India. Rooms cost from Dh220, including taxes.
23 Love Lane in Penang is a luxury boutique heritage hotel in a converted mansion, with private tropical gardens. Rooms cost from Dh400, including taxes.
In Langkawi, Temple Tree is a unique architectural villa hotel consisting of antique houses from all across Malaysia. Rooms cost from Dh350, including taxes.
if you go
The flights
Emirates flies to Delhi with fares starting from around Dh760 return, while Etihad fares cost about Dh783 return. From Delhi, there are connecting flights to Lucknow.
Where to stay
It is advisable to stay in Lucknow and make a day trip to Kannauj. A stay at the Lebua Lucknow hotel, a traditional Lucknowi mansion, is recommended. Prices start from Dh300 per night (excluding taxes).
LAST-16 FIXTURES
Sunday, January 20
3pm: Jordan v Vietnam at Al Maktoum Stadium, Dubai
6pm: Thailand v China at Hazza bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
9pm: Iran v Oman at Mohamed bin Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Monday, January 21
3pm: Japan v Saudi Arabia at Sharjah Stadium
6pm: Australia v Uzbekistan at Khalifa bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
9pm: UAE v Kyrgyzstan at Zayed Sports City Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Tuesday, January 22
5pm: South Korea v Bahrain at Rashid Stadium, Dubai
8pm: Qatar v Iraq at Al Nahyan Stadium, Abu Dhabi
SPECS
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Soldier F
“I was in complete disgust at the fact that only one person was to be charged for Bloody Sunday.
“Somebody later said to me, 'you just watch - they'll drop the charge against him'. And sure enough, the charges against Soldier F would go on to be dropped.
“It's pretty hard to think that 50 years on, the State is still covering up for what happened on Bloody Sunday.”
Jimmy Duddy, nephew of John Johnson
Rashid & Rajab
Director: Mohammed Saeed Harib
Stars: Shadi Alfons, Marwan Abdullah, Doaa Mostafa Ragab
Two stars out of five
Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
