Middle East oil producers face a complex problem charting a safe course out of the price slump caused by the global spread of Covid-19.
Opec’s next meeting will provide the first opportunity to reassess the group’s strategy since major consuming nations took their initial steps to loosen strict lockdowns, potentially reviving demand.
The choice is stark. Ease back on production cuts too soon and risk overwhelming finite global storage capacity and delaying the rebalancing of the market. Or else, maintain existing cuts for too long to boost prices faster, but in doing so revive the hopes of US shale producers and lose market share.
Dated Brent – the physical benchmark used to price two-thirds of the world’s oil – has given producers some hope. The measure has more than doubled in value since hitting a 21-year low in April and is now trading at around $33 a barrel. Not ideal, but enough to keep the industry functioning. Prices have recovered as signs of demand increase daily, especially in areas such as road transport and shipping.
“Today’s price reflects optimism in the market, but further upside will most likely be limited due to higher oil stocks and logistics constraints in US supply, leading to some discounting,” said Chris
Midgley, global head of Platts Analytics. “Demand is partially recovering, as people return to cars, but other areas such as aviation will see much longer U-shaped recoveries.”
The feared exhaustion of global storage capacity, which briefly contributed to some niche headline US oil prices turning negative in April, has abated. VLCC freight rates have fallen back to around $50,000 per day (Dh183,500), from a peak of $200,000 per day this year at the height of the crisis as storage demand as eased.
Motorists are helping to restart demand. According to Apple Maps data based on routing requests, road traffic in Britain has doubled since the peak of the travel restrictions enforced in early April. In the US – the world’s largest oil-consuming nation – the same data shows road journeys beginning to approach pre-pandemic levels as more states open up ahead of the summer driving season. Road congestion in Beijing is back to normal.
According to Platts Analytics, the steady reopening of the US and Europe has helped add 3.6 million barrels a day to demand in May compared with April’s collapse. However, the overall consumption outlook remains bleak, with demand down 17 million barrels a day year-on-year in the second quarter.
Heading into Opec’s next discussions, both heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Russia are putting on a unified front. The Kremlin has said they want to continue coordination after president Vladimir Putin and crown prince Mohamed bin Salman discussed the oil market in a recent telephone call.
The kingdom – which wants prices to trade above $80 a barrel to fund its budget – doubled down this month on its commitment to do whatever it takes to rebalance the oil market by announcing its intention to cut another 1 million barrels from its daily supplies starting in June.
However, doubts remain over Russia’s willingness to continue pledging meaningful long-term commitments to limiting its supplies, especially if a damaging second-wave of lockdowns is avoided. Russia’s energy ministry is forecasting a balanced market by June, or July, indicating it is looking forward to the Opec+ cuts possibly easing over the summer.
The country also saw its shipments to China increase by almost 18 per cent year-on-year to 7.2 million barrels a day in April, compared with an 18 per cent decline for Saudi Arabia, according to official data.
Any easing back on cuts by Russia, Saudi Arabia and its major Gulf allies could boost US shale, which has temporarily been put on hold by the global pandemic.
Platts Analytics estimates more than 14 million barrels a day of shut-ins, or production cuts across non-Opec and Opec+ announced since the group’s last meeting in March.
Meanwhile, the number of rigs operating in America has dropped 65 per cent and more workers on fracking sites have joined the swelling numbers of America’s almost 39 million unemployed. Crude output in the country has fallen by 1.6 million barrels a day from March to a total of 11.5 million barrels a day, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
The unprecedented collapse in demand caused by the pandemic made Opec’s choice to suspend its price war with Russia and agree historic cuts in March the only choice. But the ending of lockdowns and glimmers of returning demand make its decision in June more complicated.
Andy Critchlow is head of energy news, Emea at S&P Global Platts
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE%20ILT20
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Ovo's tips to find extra heat
- Open your curtains when it’s sunny
- Keep your oven open after cooking
- Have a cuddle with pets and loved ones to help stay cosy
- Eat ginger but avoid chilli as it makes you sweat
- Put on extra layers
- Do a few star jumps
- Avoid alcohol
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
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Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
About Housecall
Date started: July 2020
Founders: Omar and Humaid Alzaabi
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: HealthTech
# of staff: 10
Funding to date: Self-funded
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
OPINIONS ON PALESTINE & ISRAEL
Info
What: 11th edition of the Mubadala World Tennis Championship
When: December 27-29, 2018
Confirmed: men: Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Kevin Anderson, Dominic Thiem, Hyeon Chung, Karen Khachanov; women: Venus Williams
Tickets: www.ticketmaster.ae, Virgin megastores or call 800 86 823
BAD%20BOYS%3A%20RIDE%20OR%20DIE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Adil%20El%20Arbi%20and%20Bilall%20Fallah%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EWill%20Smith%2C%20Martin%20Lawrence%2C%20Joe%20Pantoliano%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Women’s World T20, Asia Qualifier, in Bangkok
UAE fixtures Mon Nov 20, v China; Tue Nov 21, v Thailand; Thu Nov 23, v Nepal; Fri Nov 24, v Hong Kong; Sun Nov 26, v Malaysia; Mon Nov 27, Final
(The winners will progress to the Global Qualifier)
A Cat, A Man, and Two Women
Junichiro Tamizaki
Translated by Paul McCarthy
Daunt Books
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Brief scores:
Toss: Pakhtunkhwa Zalmi, chose to field
Environment Agency: 193-3 (20 ov)
Ikhlaq 76 not out, Khaliya 58, Ahsan 55
Pakhtunkhwa Zalmi: 194-2 (18.3 ov)
Afridi 95 not out, Sajid 55, Rizwan 36 not out
Result: Pakhtunkhwa won by 8 wickets
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How being social media savvy can improve your well being
Next time when procastinating online remember that you can save thousands on paying for a personal trainer and a gym membership simply by watching YouTube videos and keeping up with the latest health tips and trends.
As social media apps are becoming more and more consumed by health experts and nutritionists who are using it to awareness and encourage patients to engage in physical activity.
Elizabeth Watson, a personal trainer from Stay Fit gym in Abu Dhabi suggests that “individuals can use social media as a means of keeping fit, there are a lot of great exercises you can do and train from experts at home just by watching videos on YouTube”.
Norlyn Torrena, a clinical nutritionist from Burjeel Hospital advises her clients to be more technologically active “most of my clients are so engaged with their phones that I advise them to download applications that offer health related services”.
Torrena said that “most people believe that dieting and keeping fit is boring”.
However, by using social media apps keeping fit means that people are “modern and are kept up to date with the latest heath tips and trends”.
“It can be a guide to a healthy lifestyle and exercise if used in the correct way, so I really encourage my clients to download health applications” said Mrs Torrena.
People can also connect with each other and exchange “tips and notes, it’s extremely healthy and fun”.
Five%20calorie-packed%20Ramadan%20drinks
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERooh%20Afza%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20contains%20414%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETang%20orange%20drink%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20serving%20contains%20300%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECarob%20beverage%20mix%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20serving%20contains%20about%20300%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EQamar%20Al%20Din%20apricot%20drink%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20saving%20contains%2061%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EVimto%20fruit%20squash%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20serving%20contains%2030%20calories%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
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%3Cp%3EDungeons%20%26amp%3B%20Dragons%20began%20as%20an%20interactive%20game%20which%20would%20be%20set%20up%20on%20a%20table%20in%201974.%20One%20player%20takes%20on%20the%20role%20of%20dungeon%20master%2C%20who%20directs%20the%20game%2C%20while%20the%20other%20players%20each%20portray%20a%20character%2C%20determining%20its%20species%2C%20occupation%20and%20moral%20and%20ethical%20outlook.%20They%20can%20choose%20the%20character%E2%80%99s%20abilities%2C%20such%20as%20strength%2C%20constitution%2C%20dexterity%2C%20intelligence%2C%20wisdom%20and%20charisma.%20In%20layman%E2%80%99s%20terms%2C%20the%20winner%20is%20the%20one%20who%20amasses%20the%20highest%20score.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
AI traffic lights to ease congestion at seven points to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Street
The seven points are:
Shakhbout bin Sultan Street
Dhafeer Street
Hadbat Al Ghubainah Street (outbound)
Salama bint Butti Street
Al Dhafra Street
Rabdan Street
Umm Yifina Street exit (inbound)
THE SPECS
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 258hp at 5,000-6,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm from 1,550-4,400rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.4L/100km
Price, base: from D215,000 (Dh230,000 as tested)
On sale: now
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
