Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh must be looking forward to retirement after 16 years in the hot seat. The country’s presidential elections are colliding with crunch time in the nuclear talks, determining whether and when Iranian oil returns to the world market. In the tradition of bullish pronouncements, Mr Zanganeh goes out with a few parting shots.
Last week's Opec+ meeting ended exceptionally quickly and smoothly, with an agreement to continue with plans to steadily ease production cuts. The group will add 2 million barrels per day by July, with 700,000 bpd of this coming this month. Ministers will have been encouraged by strong prices, with Brent crude trading at about $72 per barrel on Friday, the highest level in two years.
The market is set to be about 2 million bpd in deficit for the rest of this year, with swollen stocks from last year drawn down to almost normal levels. Opec forecasts a 6 million bpd gain in demand this year, mostly concentrated in the second half, even as rising Covid-19 infections in parts of Asia keep the picture cloudy.
Iran's return would quickly bring back between 1 million bpd to 1.5 million bpd of exports – as was the case after the first lifting of sanctions under Barack Obama, US president at the time – plus a temporary surge from drawing down the remainder of the country's excess stocks.
Opec+ will still have 5.8 million bpd of cuts in place after July. Accommodating the resurgence of Iran would slow the pace of normalisation, depending on demand and production elsewhere, but there seems to be enough space in the market. Iran, alongside troubled Venezuela and Libya, has been exempt from quotas. It is not expected to discuss joining the framework of production limits until it has had at least a few months to operate at full output.
So, what happens then? Mr Zanganeh told journalists last week that Iran could and should raise output to 6.5 million bpd, exceeding record levels reached in the 1970s. It would be emulating its neighbours – the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, which all have plans for production growth.
As with them, Iran may be increasingly mindful of the need to be ahead of a threatened decline in global oil demand highlighted in the International Energy Agency’s latest report.
Contracts were awarded last month to local companies for the further development of the new West Karoun fields on the Iraqi border amid plans to add about 200,000 bpd over the next couple of years. But gaining 2.5 million bpd or more beyond pre-sanctions levels while mitigating declines in the mature fields might cost in the order of $100 billion.
Iran has suffered a string of fires and explosions in recent months, several of which have affected the petroleum industry. They include a blaze at a refinery near Tehran last Wednesday that was sparked by a leaking pipeline, a blast that hit an oxygen pipeline serving petrochemical plants in the southern industrial centre of Assaluyeh the week before and a blaze last month at the Kangan refinery, which was inaugurated by President Rouhani a few months earlier.
While some of these, especially an explosion that damaged the Natanz uranium enrichment plant in April, are suspected to be acts of sabotage, others could be the result of hot weather, poor safety policies and the use of sub-standard parts because of sanctions. Whatever the cause, Iran needs both cash and international equipment.
One big mistake Iran made after the nuclear deal – called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Agreement – came into effect in January 2016 was moving too slowly to attract foreign investment. It dawdled on drawing up its new “Iran Petroleum Contract”, which in the end was not that appealing to international oil companies, and laid out an over-ambitious scope of projects with too small a team of negotiators.
This was the fault of hardline parliamentary opponents of President Hassan Rouhani's government, institutional atrophy after eight years of the maverick Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and residual political and sanctions risk. In the end, Tehran signed numerous preliminary agreements but the most substantial deal – with Total and the China National Petroleum Corporation for the development of liquefied natural gas exports, after the deal was abandoned by Donald Trump, Mr Obama's successor, and sanctions were reimposed.
A string of major investments by European, Chinese, Japanese and Russian companies, and expanded gas exports to neighbours would have given their governments more incentive to resist Mr Trump’s torching of the nuclear deal. The window for Iran to use its hydrocarbon resources strategically closed then, and may soon close again, possibly forever.
Mr Rouhani's administration only has until early August to seal any revival of the nuclear deal with the US. With the election on June 18, Opec+ will know the next Iranian president by its next meeting on June 24, unless the election goes to a run-off the day after. The tiny slate of candidates who passed the vetting process includes two uninspiring moderates, four conservatives or hardliners and the hand-picked and probable winner, Ebrahim Raisi.
Mr Raisi, a hardline judiciary chief who lost to Mr Rouhani in 2017, could be declared the winner this time on a low turn-out. However, he will be problematic for western countries and Iran’s regional rivals to deal with. He or another hardliner may well return to the JCPOA and bring Iran’s oil back to the market but it will not be a friendly place for international investment.
Subsidiaries of supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s organisation were awarded two of the West Karoun contracts. Despite attempts to maintain the power of the clergy, he and an unpopular president will need the support of the Revolutionary Guard, whose engineering arm already plays a major role in the domestic oil industry.
The course of Iranian politics rarely runs smooth. Despite Mr Zanganeh’s long efforts, he is unlikely to see his country’s petroleum industry ever reach its potential.
Robin Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3ECompany%20name%3A%20EduPloyment%3Cbr%3EDate%20started%3A%20March%202020%3Cbr%3ECo-Founders%3A%20Mazen%20Omair%20and%20Rana%20Batterjee%3Cbr%3EBase%3A%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20Recruitment%3Cbr%3ESize%3A%2030%20employees%3Cbr%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20Pre-Seed%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Angel%20investors%20(investment%20amount%20undisclosed)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The biog
Name: Fareed Lafta
Age: 40
From: Baghdad, Iraq
Mission: Promote world peace
Favourite poet: Al Mutanabbi
Role models: His parents
HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
Brief scoreline:
Wolves 3
Neves 28', Doherty 37', Jota 45' 2
Arsenal 1
Papastathopoulos 80'
The biog
DOB: 25/12/92
Marital status: Single
Education: Post-graduate diploma in UAE Diplomacy and External Affairs at the Emirates Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi
Hobbies: I love fencing, I used to fence at the MK Fencing Academy but I want to start again. I also love reading and writing
Lifelong goal: My dream is to be a state minister
The specs
Price: From Dh529,000
Engine: 5-litre V8
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Power: 520hp
Torque: 625Nm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.8L/100km
FORSPOKEN
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Star%20Wars%20Jedi%3A%20Survivor
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Final%20Fantasy%20XVI
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Diablo%20IV
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Baldur's%20Gate%203
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The%20Legend%20of%20Zelda%3A%20Tears%20of%20The%20Kingdom
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Marvel's%20Spider-Man%202
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Assassin's%20Creed%20Mirage
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Starfield
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20Bethesda%20Game%20Studios%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Bethesda%20Softworks%0D%3Cbr%3EConsole%3A%20PC%2C%20Xbox%0D%3Cbr%3ERelease%20date%3A%202023%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Sinopharm vaccine explained
The Sinopharm vaccine was created using techniques that have been around for decades.
“This is an inactivated vaccine. Simply what it means is that the virus is taken, cultured and inactivated," said Dr Nawal Al Kaabi, chair of the UAE's National Covid-19 Clinical Management Committee.
"What is left is a skeleton of the virus so it looks like a virus, but it is not live."
This is then injected into the body.
"The body will recognise it and form antibodies but because it is inactive, we will need more than one dose. The body will not develop immunity with one dose," she said.
"You have to be exposed more than one time to what we call the antigen."
The vaccine should offer protection for at least months, but no one knows how long beyond that.
Dr Al Kaabi said early vaccine volunteers in China were given shots last spring and still have antibodies today.
“Since it is inactivated, it will not last forever," she said.
Malcolm & Marie
Directed by: Sam Levinson
Starring: John David Washington and Zendaya
Three stars
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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ENGLAND SQUAD
Joe Root (captain), Dom Sibley, Rory Burns, Dan Lawrence, Ben Stokes, Ollie Pope, Ben Foakes (wicketkeeper), Moeen Ali, Olly Stone, Chris Woakes, Jack Leach, Stuart Broad
Results
STAGE
1 . Filippo Ganna (Ineos) - 0:13:56
2. Stefan Bissegger (Education-Nippo) - 0:00:14
3. Mikkel Bjerg (UAE Team Emirates) - 0:00:21
4. Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) - 0:00:24
5. Luis Leon Sanchez (Astana) - 0:00:30
GENERAL CLASSIFICATION
1. Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) - 4:00:05
2. Joao Almeida (QuickStep) - 0:00:05
3. Mattia Cattaneo (QuickStep) - 0:00:18
4. Chris Harper (Jumbo-Visma) - 0:00:33
5. Adam Yates (Ineos) - 0:00:39
The%20specs%3A%202024%20Mercedes%20E200
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%20four-cyl%20turbo%20%2B%20mild%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E204hp%20at%205%2C800rpm%20%2B23hp%20hybrid%20boost%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E320Nm%20at%201%2C800rpm%20%2B205Nm%20hybrid%20boost%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E9-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7.3L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENovember%2FDecember%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh205%2C000%20(estimate)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 1.6-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 217hp at 5,750rpm
Torque: 300Nm at 1,900rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh130,000
On sale: now
AUSTRALIA%20SQUAD
%3Cp%3EPat%20Cummins%20(capt)%2C%20Scott%20Boland%2C%20Alex%20Carey%2C%20Cameron%20Green%2C%20Marcus%20Harris%2C%20Josh%20Hazlewood%2C%20Travis%20Head%2C%20Josh%20Inglis%2C%20Usman%20Khawaja%2C%20Marnus%20Labuschagne%2C%20Nathan%20Lyon%2C%20Mitchell%20Marsh%2C%20Todd%20Murphy%2C%20Matthew%20Renshaw%2C%20Steve%20Smith%2C%20Mitchell%20Starc%2C%20David%20Warner%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
About Takalam
Date started: early 2020
Founders: Khawla Hammad and Inas Abu Shashieh
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: HealthTech and wellness
Number of staff: 4
Funding to date: Bootstrapped
The bio
Who inspires you?
I am in awe of the remarkable women in the Arab region, both big and small, pushing boundaries and becoming role models for generations. Emily Nasrallah was a writer, journalist, teacher and women’s rights activist
How do you relax?
Yoga relaxes me and helps me relieve tension, especially now when we’re practically chained to laptops and desks. I enjoy learning more about music and the history of famous music bands and genres.
What is favourite book?
The Perks of Being a Wallflower - I think I've read it more than 7 times
What is your favourite Arabic film?
Hala2 Lawen (Translation: Where Do We Go Now?) by Nadine Labaki
What is favourite English film?
Mamma Mia
Best piece of advice to someone looking for a career at Google?
If you’re interested in a career at Google, deep dive into the different career paths and pinpoint the space you want to join. When you know your space, you’re likely to identify the skills you need to develop.
BAD%20BOYS%3A%20RIDE%20OR%20DIE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Adil%20El%20Arbi%20and%20Bilall%20Fallah%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EWill%20Smith%2C%20Martin%20Lawrence%2C%20Joe%20Pantoliano%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Marathon results
Men:
1. Titus Ekiru(KEN) 2:06:13
2. Alphonce Simbu(TAN) 2:07:50
3. Reuben Kipyego(KEN) 2:08:25
4. Abel Kirui(KEN) 2:08:46
5. Felix Kemutai(KEN) 2:10:48
Women:
1. Judith Korir(KEN) 2:22:30
2. Eunice Chumba(BHR) 2:26:01
3. Immaculate Chemutai(UGA) 2:28:30
4. Abebech Bekele(ETH) 2:29:43
5. Aleksandra Morozova(RUS) 2:33:01
Company Profile
Company name: Big Farm Brothers
Started: September 2020
Founders: Vishal Mahajan and Navneet Kaur
Based: Dubai Investment Park 1
Industry: food and agriculture
Initial investment: $205,000
Current staff: eight to 10
Future plan: to expand to other GCC markets
JAPAN SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Masaaki Higashiguchi, Shuichi Gonda, Daniel Schmidt
Defenders: Yuto Nagatomo, Tomoaki Makino, Maya Yoshida, Sho Sasaki, Hiroki Sakai, Sei Muroya, Genta Miura, Takehiro Tomiyasu
Midfielders: Toshihiro Aoyama, Genki Haraguchi, Gaku Shibasaki, Wataru Endo, Junya Ito, Shoya Nakajima, Takumi Minamino, Hidemasa Morita, Ritsu Doan
Forwards: Yuya Osako, Takuma Asano, Koya Kitagawa
MATCH INFO
World Cup 2022 qualifier
UAE v Indonesia, Thursday, 8pm
Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium, Dubai
How Filipinos in the UAE invest
A recent survey of 10,000 Filipino expatriates in the UAE found that 82 per cent have plans to invest, primarily in property. This is significantly higher than the 2014 poll showing only two out of 10 Filipinos planned to invest.
Fifty-five percent said they plan to invest in property, according to the poll conducted by the New Perspective Media Group, organiser of the Philippine Property and Investment Exhibition. Acquiring a franchised business or starting up a small business was preferred by 25 per cent and 15 per cent said they will invest in mutual funds. The rest said they are keen to invest in insurance (3 per cent) and gold (2 per cent).
Of the 5,500 respondents who preferred property as their primary investment, 54 per cent said they plan to make the purchase within the next year. Manila was the top location, preferred by 53 per cent.
THE 12 BREAKAWAY CLUBS
England
Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur
Italy
AC Milan, Inter Milan, Juventus
Spain
Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Real Madrid
Fifa%20World%20Cup%20Qatar%202022%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFirst%20match%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENovember%2020%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFinal%2016%20round%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDecember%203%20to%206%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EQuarter-finals%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDecember%209%20and%2010%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESemi-finals%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDecember%2013%20and%2014%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFinal%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDecember%2018%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Australia men's Test cricket fixtures 2021/22
One-off Test v Afghanistan:
Nov 27-Dec 1: Blundstone Arena, Hobart
The Ashes v England:
Dec 8-12: 1st Test, Gabba, Brisbane
Dec 16-20: 2nd Test, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide (day/night)
Dec 26-30: 3rd Test, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
Jan 5-9, 2022: 4th Test, Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney
Jan 14-18: 5th Test, Optus Stadium, Perth
What is graphene?
Graphene is a single layer of carbon atoms arranged like honeycomb.
It was discovered in 2004, when Russian-born Manchester scientists Andrei Geim and Kostya Novoselov were "playing about" with sticky tape and graphite - the material used as "lead" in pencils.
Placing the tape on the graphite and peeling it, they managed to rip off thin flakes of carbon. In the beginning they got flakes consisting of many layers of graphene. But as they repeated the process many times, the flakes got thinner.
By separating the graphite fragments repeatedly, they managed to create flakes that were just one atom thick. Their experiment had led to graphene being isolated for the very first time.
At the time, many believed it was impossible for such thin crystalline materials to be stable. But examined under a microscope, the material remained stable, and when tested was found to have incredible properties.
It is many times times stronger than steel, yet incredibly lightweight and flexible. It is electrically and thermally conductive but also transparent. The world's first 2D material, it is one million times thinner than the diameter of a single human hair.
But the 'sticky tape' method would not work on an industrial scale. Since then, scientists have been working on manufacturing graphene, to make use of its incredible properties.
In 2010, Geim and Novoselov were awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics. Their discovery meant physicists could study a new class of two-dimensional materials with unique properties.
Fight card
1. Featherweight 66kg: Ben Lucas (AUS) v Ibrahim Kendil (EGY)
2. Lightweight 70kg: Mohammed Kareem Aljnan (SYR) v Alphonse Besala (CMR)
3. Welterweight 77kg:Marcos Costa (BRA) v Abdelhakim Wahid (MAR)
4. Lightweight 70kg: Omar Ramadan (EGY) v Abdimitalipov Atabek (KGZ)
5. Featherweight 66kg: Ahmed Al Darmaki (UAE) v Kagimu Kigga (UGA)
6. Catchweight 85kg: Ibrahim El Sawi (EGY) v Iuri Fraga (BRA)
7. Featherweight 66kg: Yousef Al Husani (UAE) v Mohamed Allam (EGY)
8. Catchweight 73kg: Mostafa Radi (PAL) v Ahmed Abdelraouf of Egypt (EGY)
9. Featherweight 66kg: Jaures Dea (CMR) v Andre Pinheiro (BRA)
10. Catchweight 90kg: Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Juscelino Ferreira (BRA)
The specs: 2019 Haval H6
Price, base: Dh69,900
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
