Sixty years ago this Monday, the Al Shaab Hall in Baghdad hosted five of the oil world’s most consequential figures. Abdullah Al Tariki of Saudi Arabia, Juan Pérez Alfonzo of Venezuela, and the representatives of Iraq, Kuwait and Iran established the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries. One of the most important economic groups of modern history, Opec today faces a transformation as profound as that at its birth.
As historian Giuliano Garavini of NYU Abu Dhabi has explored in his recent book, Opec was a standard bearer for cooperation amongst the developing and post-colonial countries. Just seven years earlier, an American- and British-backed coup had ended Iran’s attempt to nationalise its oil, intimidating others who might press for better terms. The immediate inspiration for Opec’s founding was the February 1959 unilateral cut in official “posted” prices by the international oil firms, reducing their tax obligations to their hosts.
But behind it lay years of particularly Venezuelan diplomacy and travel to the Middle East, leading to the Ma’adi Pact of 1959 in the Cairo suburb at the end of the first ever Arab Petroleum Conference. In those days of limited international flights and even international phone lines, Opec was a remarkable assembly of countries with different languages, cultures, geographies, politics, histories, religions, with very little in common beyond their vast petroleum resources. Others joined later, including Abu Dhabi (now representing the UAE) in 1967, taking membership to twelve by 1973.
Opec has been through at least four incarnations. Its first decade was spent demanding a fairer share of taxation in a glutted market from the international oil companies, the “seven sisters” of Shell, Exxon, British Petroleum and others, who in interlocking consortia controlled almost all oil across the Middle East, Venezuela and Nigeria.
After 1970, the market tightened. The 1973 oil embargo by some Arab states (not Opec) imposed over the October War with Israel was the catalyst, not the cause, of an enormous run-up in prices. The Iranian Revolution and outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War in 1978-80 further squeezed supply.
The Opec holdings of international oil firms were progressively nationalised, clinging on with minority stakes only in a few places such. The great national oil companies, still the world leaders in reserves and production, emerged – Saudi Aramco, Adnoc, Petróleos de Venezuela, National Iranian Oil Company.
From 1970 to 1981, the organisation’s concern was setting prices – usually upwards. Shell managing director Frank McFadzean cynically observed “senior Cabinet Ministers flying off with the melodrama normally associated with the relief of a beleaguered fortress” to obtain less than a month’s worth of oil for the UK.
Opec had become the world's most instantly influential economic organisation and gained the reputation of a bogeyman for the industrialised countries that it has never quite shaken off.
The group is famous for its production quotas, the locus of intense bargaining and controversy. Yet these only came into existence in 1982 as demand for Opec crude slumped under the strain of recession, alternative fuels, conservation and competing production – all inspired by the organisation’s excessively high price targets. Saudi Arabia gave up its role as swing producer in 1986 and has always avoided resuming that burden.
The oil crises also sowed the seeds of modern renewable energy, efficiency, and energy policy, while halting the post-war paradigm of environmentally unsustainable breakneck growth.
The long slump to 2003 was followed by a China-fuelled boom, the 2008-9 financial crisis, another boom, then the 2014 shale-inspired bust. These volatile times spawned Opec’s fourth incarnation in 2016, part of the wider Opec+ grouping with Russia and some other non-Opec producers, which has proved crucial in managing coronavirus’s epic demand destruction. The influence of formerly leading members Venezuela, Nigeria, Algeria, Libya, Indonesia and Iran has shrunk almost to nothing. The key decisions are all made between the Arabian Gulf and Moscow.
Yet other warning signs have been flashing for at least a decade. Battery vehicles threaten oil’s near-monopoly in ground transport, approaching economic competitiveness and ever more essential for the climate. Liquefied natural gas and then hydrogen for ships, biofuels and hydrogen for planes, will be next.
As I wrote on Opec’s fiftieth anniversary, “This fading of oil as the world’s premier energy source should have aroused more concern than it has in Caracas, Riyadh or Tehran. At this rate, they will leave billions of barrels in the ground at the end of the oil age.” The five founding members long ago succeeded in gaining control over their resources, but the economic situation of three is challenging, while Saudi Arabia and Kuwait face the dilemma of growth and diversification beyond their petroleum bounty.
So, the fifth version of Opec has to adapt. It needs to regain the market share lost to higher-cost producers in the shale era and then to Covid-19, while managing the return within its ranks of exports from Iran, and perhaps Venezuela and Libya. Will the Opec+ cooperation become a long-term feature of the market, and will Saudi Arabia seek to deter Russia’s higher-cost new fields? How will it manage the new volatility of oil prices and possible underinvestment while oil is unfashionable?
But an adaptable and enduring organisation can also find a new mission. Its members need help to make the tough transition of energy sources. Instead of being seen by some as an obstruction to world climate policy, it could be a constructive force for adapting oil exporters to a low-carbon world.
Robin M. Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Chef Nobu's advice for eating sushi
“One mistake people always make is adding extra wasabi. There is no need for this, because it should already be there between the rice and the fish.
“When eating nigiri, you must dip the fish – not the rice – in soy sauce, otherwise the rice will collapse. Also, don’t use too much soy sauce or it will make you thirsty. For sushi rolls, dip a little of the rice-covered roll lightly in soy sauce and eat in one bite.
“Chopsticks are acceptable, but really, I recommend using your fingers for sushi. Do use chopsticks for sashimi, though.
“The ginger should be eaten separately as a palette cleanser and used to clear the mouth when switching between different pieces of fish.”
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Euro 2020
Group A: Italy, Switzerland, Wales, Turkey
Group B: Belgium, Russia, Denmark, Finland
Group C: Netherlands, Ukraine, Austria,
Georgia/Kosovo/Belarus/North Macedonia
Group D: England, Croatia, Czech Republic,
Scotland/Israel/Norway/Serbia
Group E: Spain, Poland, Sweden,
N.Ireland/Bosnia/Slovakia/Ireland
Group F: Germany, France, Portugal,
Iceland/Romania/Bulgaria/Hungary
Vidaamuyarchi
Director: Magizh Thirumeni
Stars: Ajith Kumar, Arjun Sarja, Trisha Krishnan, Regina Cassandra
Rating: 4/5
Baftas 2020 winners
BEST FILM
- 1917 - Pippa Harris, Callum McDougall, Sam Mendes, Jayne-Ann Tenggren
- THE IRISHMAN - Robert De Niro, Jane Rosenthal, Martin Scorsese, Emma Tillinger Koskoff
- JOKER - Bradley Cooper, Todd Phillips, Emma Tillinger Koskoff
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh, Quentin Tarantino
- PARASITE - Bong Joon-ho, Kwak Sin-ae
DIRECTOR
- 1917 - Sam Mendes
- THE IRISHMAN - Martin Scorsese
- JOKER - Todd Phillips
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Quentin Tarantino
- PARASITE - Bong Joon-ho
OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
- 1917 - Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Callum McDougall, Jayne-Ann Tenggren, Krysty Wilson-Cairns
- BAIT - Mark Jenkin, Kate Byers, Linn Waite
- FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts
- ROCKETMAN - Dexter Fletcher, Adam Bohling, David Furnish, David Reid, Matthew Vaughn, Lee Hall
- SORRY WE MISSED YOU - Ken Loach, Rebecca O’Brien, Paul Laverty
- THE TWO POPES - Fernando Meirelles, Jonathan Eirich, Dan Lin, Tracey Seaward, Anthony McCarten
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
- THE FAREWELL - Lulu Wang, Daniele Melia
- FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts
- PAIN AND GLORY - Pedro Almodóvar, Agustín Almodóvar
- PARASITE - Bong Joon-ho
- PORTRAIT OF A LADY ON FIRE - Céline Sciamma, Bénédicte Couvreur
LEADING ACTRESS
- JESSIE BUCKLEY - Wild Rose
- SCARLETT JOHANSSON - Marriage Story
- SAOIRSE RONAN - Little Women
- CHARLIZE THERON - Bombshell
- RENÉE ZELLWEGER - Judy
LEADING ACTOR
- LEONARDO DICAPRIO - Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood
- ADAM DRIVER - Marriage Story
- TARON EGERTON - Rocketman
- JOAQUIN PHOENIX - Joker
- JONATHAN PRYCE - The Two Popes
SUPPORTING ACTOR
- TOM HANKS - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
- ANTHONY HOPKINS - The Two Popes
- AL PACINO - The Irishman
- JOE PESCI - The Irishman
- BRAD PITT - Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- LAURA DERN - Marriage Story
- SCARLETT JOHANSSON - Jojo Rabbit
- FLORENCE PUGH - Little Women
- MARGOT ROBBIE - Bombshell
- MARGOT ROBBIE - Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- THE IRISHMAN - Steven Zaillian
- JOJO RABBIT - Taika Waititi
- JOKER - Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
- LITTLE WOMEN - Greta Gerwig
- THE TWO POPES - Anthony McCarten
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- BOOKSMART - Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Katie Silberman
- KNIVES OUT - Rian Johnson
- MARRIAGE STORY - Noah Baumbach
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Quentin Tarantino
- PARASITE - Han Jin Won, Bong Joon ho
DOCUMENTARY
- AMERICAN FACTORY - Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert
- APOLLO 11 - Todd Douglas Miller
- DIEGO MARADONA - Asif Kapadia
- FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts
- THE GREAT HACK - Karim Amer, Jehane Noujaime
OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
- BAIT - Mark Jenkin (Writer/Director), Kate Byers, Linn Waite (Producers)
- FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab (Director/Producer), Edward Watts (Director)
- MAIDEN - Alex Holmes (Director)
- ONLY YOU - Harry Wootliff (Writer/Director)
- RETABLO - Álvaro Delgado-Aparicio (Writer/Director)
ANIMATED FILM
- FROZEN 2 - Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho
- KLAUS - Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh
- A SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE: FARMAGEDDON - Will Becher, Richard Phelan, Paul Kewley
- TOY STORY 4 - Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen
CASTING
- JOKER - Shayna Markowitz
- MARRIAGE STORY - Douglas Aibel, Francine Maisler
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Victoria Thomas
- THE PERSONAL HISTORY OF DAVID COPPERFIELD - Sarah Crowe
- THE TWO POPES - Nina Gold
EE RISING STAR AWARD (voted for by the public)
- AWKWAFINA
- JACK LOWDEN
- KAITLYN DEVER
- KELVIN HARRISON JR.
- MICHEAL WARD
CINEMATOGRAPHY
- 1917 - Roger Deakins
- THE IRISHMAN - Rodrigo Prieto
- JOKER - Lawrence Sher
- LE MANS ’66 - Phedon Papamichael
- THE LIGHTHOUSE - Jarin Blaschke
EDITING
- THE IRISHMAN - Thelma Schoonmaker
- JOJO RABBIT - Tom Eagles
- JOKER - Jeff Groth
- LE MANS ’66 - Andrew Buckland, Michael McCusker
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Fred Raskin
COSTUME DESIGN
- THE IRISHMAN - Christopher Peterson, Sandy Powell
- JOJO RABBIT - Mayes C. Rubeo
- JUDY - Jany Temime
- LITTLE WOMEN - Jacqueline Durran
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Arianne Phillips
PRODUCTION DESIGN
- 1917 - Dennis Gassner, Lee Sandales
- THE IRISHMAN - Bob Shaw, Regina Graves
- JOJO RABBIT - Ra Vincent, Nora Sopková
- JOKER - Mark Friedberg, Kris Moran
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Barbara Ling, Nancy Haigh
SOUND
- 1917 - Scott Millan, Oliver Tarney, Rachael Tate, Mark Taylor, Stuart Wilson
- JOKER - Tod Maitland, Alan Robert Murray, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic
- LE MANS ’66 - David Giammarco, Paul Massey, Steven A. Morrow, Donald Sylvester
- ROCKETMAN - Matthew Collinge, John Hayes, Mike Prestwood Smith, Danny Sheehan
- STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - David Acord, Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio, Stuart Wilson, Matthew Wood
ORIGINAL SCORE
- 1917 - Thomas Newman
- JOJO RABBIT - Michael Giacchino
- JOKER - Hildur Guđnadóttir
- LITTLE WOMEN - Alexandre Desplat
- STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - John Williams
SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
- 1917 - Greg Butler, Guillaume Rocheron, Dominic Tuohy
- AVENGERS: ENDGAME - Dan Deleeuw, Dan Sudick
- THE IRISHMAN - Leandro Estebecorena, Stephane Grabli, Pablo Helman
- THE LION KING - Andrew R. Jones, Robert Legato, Elliot Newman, Adam Valdez
- STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - Roger Guyett, Paul Kavanagh, Neal Scanlan, Dominic Tuohy
MAKE UP & HAIR
- 1917 - Naomi Donne
- BOMBSHELL - Vivian Baker, Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan
- JOKER - Kay Georgiou, Nicki Ledermann
- JUDY - Jeremy Woodhead
- ROCKETMAN - Lizzie Yianni Georgiou
BRITISH SHORT FILM
- AZAAR - Myriam Raja, Nathanael Baring
- GOLDFISH - Hector Dockrill, Harri Kamalanathan, Benedict Turnbull, Laura Dockrill
- KAMALI - Sasha Rainbow, Rosalind Croad
- LEARNING TO SKATEBOARD IN A WARZONE (IF YOU’RE A GIRL) - Carol Dysinger, Elena Andreicheva
- THE TRAP - Lena Headey, Anthony Fitzgerald
BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION
- GRANDAD WAS A ROMANTIC - Maryam Mohajer
- IN HER BOOTS - Kathrin Steinbacher
- THE MAGIC BOAT - Naaman Azh
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EPL's youngest
- Ethan Nwaneri (Arsenal)
15 years, 181 days old
- Max Dowman (Arsenal)
15 years, 235 days old
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15 years, 271 days old
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16 years, 30 days old
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16 years, 68 days old
The specs
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Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
Sukuk explained
Sukuk are Sharia-compliant financial certificates issued by governments, corporates and other entities. While as an asset class they resemble conventional bonds, there are some significant differences. As interest is prohibited under Sharia, sukuk must contain an underlying transaction, for example a leaseback agreement, and the income that is paid to investors is generated by the underlying asset. Investors must also be prepared to share in both the profits and losses of an enterprise. Nevertheless, sukuk are similar to conventional bonds in that they provide regular payments, and are considered less risky than equities. Most investors would not buy sukuk directly due to high minimum subscriptions, but invest via funds.
