Sometimes friendly enemies, sometimes wary friends, the International Energy Agency and the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries are the poles of global energy management.
The Paris-based IEA has come under criticism from many sides in the past few years: environmentalists, oil companies and Opec itself.
But the challenges it grapples with pose some important lessons for its doppelganger in Vienna.
The latest round of debate began with an article last month in the Wall Street Journal by Robert McNally, a co-worker of mine at the Columbia Centre on Global Energy Policy, and a former official under the presidency of George W Bush.
Jason Bordoff, founding director of the Centre and previously energy adviser to former president Barack Obama, responded to defend the IEA.
So where does this debate come from, and what does it mean for future energy policy?
The IEA was set up in 1973 at the instigation of former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, to counterbalance Opec and ensure energy security in the throes of the first great oil shock.
It brought together most of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development members in North America, Western Europe and Japan – all wealthy industrialised nations. It introduced policies such as conservation, emergency responses and strategic stocks.
The IEA has steadily extended its remit since, covering other forms of energy, adding eastern European members, and taking on as associates India, China, Egypt and other developing countries.
Under the leadership of Fatih Birol, who became executive director in 2015, it has taken on a more active and outspoken role in climate policy. Notably, Mr Birol also served at Opec early in his career.
However, the IEA has faced criticism from environmentalists, notably for its repeated under-predictions of global solar power deployment. They felt it was overly wedded to its origins in fossil fuel security. That was one of the motivations for establishing another body, the International Renewable Energy Agency or Irena, in 2011, headquartered in Abu Dhabi, even though the IEA also analyses renewables.
On a second front, the IEA has several times fallen out with Opec. The two, from their nearby diplomatic capitals, have at times engaged constructively, notably through the Riyadh-based International Energy Forum.
But Opec has also been suspicious of the IEA’s origin – it was, after all, intended to weaken the hold of the leading oil exporters over western countries.
The IEA has typically called on Opec to raise production and implicitly to lower prices when the members of the Vienna organisation often felt their interests lay the other way.
Most recently, Opec has been vocally critical of the IEA over its apparent calls for an end to investment in new oil and gasfields, and its prediction of a peak in demand for all three main fossil fuels as early as this decade.
In November, secretary general Haitham Al Ghais said that the IEA “unjustly vilifies the [petroleum] industry” and that the agency was playing down energy security, access and affordability.
Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, told the World Petroleum Congress in September that the IEA had “moved from being a forecaster and assessors of market to one for political advocacy”.
Mr McNally’s core criticism of the IEA is that it has become excessively focused on the energy transition and climate policy, to the detriment of its original mission. The inattention of European leaders to traditional energy security became obvious in the desperate scramble for oil, gas and electrons in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
He argues that the agency’s long-term forecasts are no longer objective because they put too much weight on net-zero carbon policies and governments’ aspirations, that are not being delivered in reality or are vulnerable to reversal. He also criticises the decision to drop a baseline scenario in which only current policies apply, and against which all other scenarios could be weighed.
Mr Bordoff and the IEA responded that positing a world in which no policies change is itself politicised. It risks being just as unrealistic as assuming the adoption and delivery of ambitious net-zero policies.
One reason the IEA previously kept underestimating solar deployment was precisely because it did not allow for the progressively stronger policies enacted by countries such as Germany, nor the fall in solar costs that accompanied this.
However, technological breakthroughs are, by their very nature, hard to forecast.
The IEA, and most other analysts, did not expect the substantial growth of US shale gas and oil output. Conversely, advanced biofuels, hydrogen and nuclear power have not lived up to past optimistic expectations – often because they did not enjoy the powerful elixir of policy support that powered solar and wind growth.
In other industries, artificial intelligence, self-driving cars, biotech and space travel have been through several cycles of hype and disappointment.
This has become even more salient since the announcement last month that India was in talks to join. Full membership had previously been restricted to the high-income members of the OECD. It’s not clear by what legal workaround India may be allowed in.
The inclusion of India, which is likely to overtake China as the main long-term driver of growth in energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, would radically change the IEA. Analyst Vandana Hari argues that New Delhi should withdraw its application, as the IEA’s energy transition mission is too far apart from India’s needs for energy security.
Still, Opec should not indulge in Schadenfreude over its twin’s troubles. It too must wrestle with similar problems. How does it safeguard its members’ interests in producing and exporting oil, while acknowledging the reality and urgency of the climate crisis? Global warming and sea-level rise will hurt the GCC states, Iraq, Nigeria and other Opec members.
How does it allow the transition of their economies? How does it engage constructively with its major clients, notably India and China, who sometimes complain of high oil prices, and who have their energy transition plans? And how does it incorporate the profound – if uncertain – long-term effect on oil and gas consumption of technologies such as electric vehicles, renewables and advanced batteries?
In contrast to the IEA, Opec sees demand for oil rising robustly to at least 2045.
With the formation of Opec+, the Vienna organisation has been even more active in broadening its geographic reach than the IEA.
Perhaps now is the time to take a leaf from the book in Paris, and widen its mission in the face of a transforming energy world.
Robin M. Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Essentials
The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct from the UAE to Delhi from about Dh950 return including taxes.
The hotels
Double rooms at Tijara Fort-Palace cost from 6,670 rupees (Dh377), including breakfast.
Doubles at Fort Bishangarh cost from 29,030 rupees (Dh1,641), including breakfast. Doubles at Narendra Bhawan cost from 15,360 rupees (Dh869). Doubles at Chanoud Garh cost from 19,840 rupees (Dh1,122), full board. Doubles at Fort Begu cost from 10,000 rupees (Dh565), including breakfast.
The tours
Amar Grover travelled with Wild Frontiers. A tailor-made, nine-day itinerary via New Delhi, with one night in Tijara and two nights in each of the remaining properties, including car/driver, costs from £1,445 (Dh6,968) per person.
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
TWISTERS
Director: Lee Isaac Chung
Starring: Glen Powell, Daisy Edgar-Jones, Anthony Ramos
Rating: 2.5/5
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
Vidaamuyarchi
Director: Magizh Thirumeni
Stars: Ajith Kumar, Arjun Sarja, Trisha Krishnan, Regina Cassandra
Rating: 4/5
2019 Asian Cup final
Japan v Qatar
Friday, 6pm
Zayed Sports City Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Farasan Boat: 128km Away from Anchorage
Director: Mowaffaq Alobaid
Stars: Abdulaziz Almadhi, Mohammed Al Akkasi, Ali Al Suhaibani
Rating: 4/5
TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
Rating: 4.5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
'Nope'
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs: 2018 Mercedes-AMG C63 S Cabriolet
Price, base: Dh429,090
Engine 4.0-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission Seven-speed automatic
Power 510hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque 700Nm @ 1,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 9.2L / 100km
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
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F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Name: Colm McLoughlin
Country: Galway, Ireland
Job: Executive vice chairman and chief executive of Dubai Duty Free
Favourite golf course: Dubai Creek Golf and Yacht Club
Favourite part of Dubai: Palm Jumeirah
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
8 UAE companies helping families reduce their carbon footprint
Greenheart Organic Farms
This Dubai company was one of the country’s first organic farms, set up in 2012, and it now delivers a wide array of fruits and vegetables grown regionally or in the UAE, as well as other grocery items, to both Dubai and Abu Dhabi doorsteps.
www.greenheartuae.com
Modibodi
Founded in Australia, Modibodi is now in the UAE with waste-free, reusable underwear that eliminates the litter created by a woman’s monthly cycle, which adds up to approximately 136kgs of sanitary waste over a lifetime.
www.modibodi.ae
The Good Karma Co
From brushes made of plant fibres to eco-friendly storage solutions, this company has planet-friendly alternatives to almost everything we need, including tin foil and toothbrushes.
www.instagram.com/thegoodkarmaco
Re:told
One Dubai boutique, Re:told, is taking second-hand garments and selling them on at a fraction of the price, helping to cut back on the hundreds of thousands of tonnes of clothes thrown into landfills each year.
www.shopretold.com
Lush
Lush provides products such as shampoo and conditioner as package-free bars with reusable tins to store.
www.mena.lush.com
Bubble Bro
Offering filtered, still and sparkling water on tap, Bubble Bro is attempting to ensure we don’t produce plastic or glass waste. Founded in 2017 by Adel Abu-Aysha, the company is on track to exceeding its target of saving one million bottles by the end of the year.
www.bubble-bro.com
Coethical
This company offers refillable, eco-friendly home cleaning and hygiene products that are all biodegradable, free of chemicals and certifiably not tested on animals.
www.instagram.com/coethical
Eggs & Soldiers
This bricks-and-mortar shop and e-store, founded by a Dubai mum-of-four, is the place to go for all manner of family products – from reusable cloth diapers to organic skincare and sustainable toys.
www.eggsnsoldiers.com
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week
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The%20specs
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THE DETAILS
Kaala
Dir: Pa. Ranjith
Starring: Rajinikanth, Huma Qureshi, Easwari Rao, Nana Patekar
Rating: 1.5/5
'Worse than a prison sentence'
Marie Byrne, a counsellor who volunteers at the UAE government's mental health crisis helpline, said the ordeal the crew had been through would take time to overcome.
“It was worse than a prison sentence, where at least someone can deal with a set amount of time incarcerated," she said.
“They were living in perpetual mystery as to how their futures would pan out, and what that would be.
“Because of coronavirus, the world is very different now to the one they left, that will also have an impact.
“It will not fully register until they are on dry land. Some have not seen their young children grow up while others will have to rebuild relationships.
“It will be a challenge mentally, and to find other work to support their families as they have been out of circulation for so long. Hopefully they will get the care they need when they get home.”
