Both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged last week at their first policy meetings for 2024.
Central bankers have pushed back against market expectations for early and deep rate cuts this year, with seemingly limited effect so far, with markets assigning about a 50 per cent probability of a March rate cut by the Fed ahead of last week’s meeting.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in his post meeting comments on January 31, explicitly said that he didn’t believe the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would be ready to cut rates by the March meeting.
While markets did re-price the probability of a rate cut in March down somewhat after the press conference, it wasn’t until the much better than expected January employment data was released on Friday evening that rate expectations for the near term materially declined.
Employers in the US added 353,000 jobs in January against expectations for 185,000 gain and the biggest rise in employment since October 2022. December’s reading was also revised higher, meaning the US economy added 686,000 jobs over the past two months.
The unemployment rate remained at 3.7 per cent for the third consecutive month.
The non-farm payrolls data vindicated Fed officials’ hawkishness, but the market is still much more optimistic about the speed and extent of monetary policy easing this year than the Fed’s own projections suggest: Fed Funds Futures are pricing about 125 basis points in rate cuts over the course of 2024, compared with the 75bp of cuts indicated in the December dot plot, and the market still expects the first rate cut in May 2024.
It is a similar story in the UK, where the market anticipates about four 25bp rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, starting in June. While the odds of a rate cut in May have declined, they remain high at over 40 per cent, even as Governor Andrew Bailey said the Bank needed to “be more confident” that inflation would not only fall to the 2 per cent target, but that it would stay there.
By all accounts, inflation in the major developed economies has slowed sharply at the headline level, helped by lower oil prices in 2023 as well as the impact of higher interest rates on growth and investment, and the consensus expectation is that inflation will continue to decline this year.
Why then are policymakers stressing the need for caution when it comes to easing monetary policy?
For one thing, the fact that markets are already pricing significant easing in benchmark interest rates this year has already had an impact on financial conditions: long-term bond yields have declined since their peaks in November 2023 and equities and other risk assets have rallied; US benchmark equity indices closed at record highs last week.
The easing in financial conditions could spur consumption and investment and boost growth, potentially adding to inflationary pressure even before central banks act to lower policy rates.
In the UK and the eurozone, wage inflation is still much higher than it was before the pandemic, and is too fast to be consistent with a 2 per cent inflation target on a sustained basis.
In the UK, average weekly earnings grew 6.5 per cent year-on-year in the three months to November, while in Europe wage growth is running at around 5 per cent year-on-year, ECB officials said.
Even in the US, average hourly earnings growth accelerated to 4.5 per cent year-on-year in January, the fastest rate since September 2023, although it has slowed from about 6 per cent in Q1 2022.
However, in the US, wage growth has been accompanied by improved productivity which means the inflationary impact is perhaps more limited than in Europe, where productivity growth remains weak.
Policymakers are likely to continue to push back against market expectations for early and deep rate cuts in developed economies this year, over the coming weeks.
While inflation is likely to keep moving towards the 2 per cent target, there is little reason to rush to cut policy rates while gross domestic product growth is still strong, unemployment is low by historical standards and wage growth is running high.
Khatija Haque is chief economist and head of research at Emirates NBD
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
Champions League Last 16
Red Bull Salzburg (AUT) v Bayern Munich (GER)
Sporting Lisbon (POR) v Manchester City (ENG)
Benfica (POR) v Ajax (NED)
Chelsea (ENG) v Lille (FRA)
Atletico Madrid (ESP) v Manchester United (ENG)
Villarreal (ESP) v Juventus (ITA)
Inter Milan (ITA) v Liverpool (ENG)
Paris Saint-Germain v Real Madrid (ESP)
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEmonovo%20(previously%20Marj3)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECairo%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELaunch%20year%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2016%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E12%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eeducation%20technology%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Ethree%20rounds%2C%20undisclosed%20amount%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Chevrolet Trailblazer
Price, base / as tested Dh99,000 / Dh132,000
Engine 3.6L V6
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Power 275hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 350Nm @ 3,700rpm
Fuel economy combined 12.2L / 100km
The specs: Macan Turbo
Engine: Dual synchronous electric motors
Power: 639hp
Torque: 1,130Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Touring range: 591km
Price: From Dh412,500
On sale: Deliveries start in October
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
11 cabbie-recommended restaurants and dishes to try in Abu Dhabi
Iqbal Restaurant behind Wendy’s on Hamdan Street for the chicken karahi (Dh14)
Pathemari in Navy Gate for prawn biryani (from Dh12 to Dh35)
Abu Al Nasar near Abu Dhabi Mall, for biryani (from Dh12 to Dh20)
Bonna Annee at Navy Gate for Ethiopian food (the Bonna Annee special costs Dh42 and comes with a mix of six house stews – key wet, minchet abesh, kekel, meser be sega, tibs fir fir and shiro).
Al Habasha in Tanker Mai for Ethiopian food (tibs, a hearty stew with meat, is a popular dish; here it costs Dh36.75 for lamb and beef versions)
Himalayan Restaurant in Mussaffa for Nepalese (the momos and chowmein noodles are best-selling items, and go for between Dh14 and Dh20)
Makalu in Mussaffa for Nepalese (get the chicken curry or chicken fry for Dh11)
Al Shaheen Cafeteria near Guardian Towers for a quick morning bite, especially the egg sandwich in paratha (Dh3.50)
Pinky Food Restaurant in Tanker Mai for tilapia
Tasty Zone for Nepalese-style noodles (Dh15)
Ibrahimi for Pakistani food (a quarter chicken tikka with roti costs Dh16)
ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
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TERMINAL HIGH ALTITUDE AREA DEFENCE (THAAD)
What is THAAD?
It is considered to be the US's most superior missile defence system.
Production:
It was created in 2008.
Speed:
THAAD missiles can travel at over Mach 8, so fast that it is hypersonic.
Abilities:
THAAD is designed to take out ballistic missiles as they are on their downward trajectory towards their target, otherwise known as the "terminal phase".
Purpose:
To protect high-value strategic sites, such as airfields or population centres.
Range:
THAAD can target projectiles inside and outside the Earth's atmosphere, at an altitude of 150 kilometres above the Earth's surface.
Creators:
Lockheed Martin was originally granted the contract to develop the system in 1992. Defence company Raytheon sub-contracts to develop other major parts of the system, such as ground-based radar.
UAE and THAAD:
In 2011, the UAE became the first country outside of the US to buy two THAAD missile defence systems. It then stationed them in 2016, becoming the first Gulf country to do so.
The schedule
December 5 - 23: Shooting competition, Al Dhafra Shooting Club
December 9 - 24: Handicrafts competition, from 4pm until 10pm, Heritage Souq
December 11 - 20: Dates competition, from 4pm
December 12 - 20: Sour milk competition
December 13: Falcon beauty competition
December 14 and 20: Saluki races
December 15: Arabian horse races, from 4pm
December 16 - 19: Falconry competition
December 18: Camel milk competition, from 7.30 - 9.30 am
December 20 and 21: Sheep beauty competition, from 10am
December 22: The best herd of 30 camels
Sreesanth's India bowling career
Tests 27, Wickets 87, Average 37.59, Best 5-40
ODIs 53, Wickets 75, Average 33.44, Best 6-55
T20Is 10, Wickets 7, Average 41.14, Best 2-12
OPINIONS ON PALESTINE & ISRAEL
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
SECRET%20INVASION
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The specs: 2018 Nissan Altima
Price, base / as tested: Dh78,000 / Dh97,650
Engine: 2.5-litre in-line four-cylinder
Power: 182hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 244Nm @ 4,000rpm
Transmission: Continuously variable tranmission
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.6L / 100km
Pathaan
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Siddharth%20Anand%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shah%20Rukh%20Khan%2C%20Deepika%20Padukone%2C%20John%20Abraham%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
THE%20SPECS
%3Cp%3EEngine%3A%203-litre%20V6%20turbo%20(standard%20model%2C%20E-hybrid)%3B%204-litre%20V8%20biturbo%20(S)%0D%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20350hp%20(standard)%3B%20463hp%20(E-hybrid)%3B%20467hp%20(S)%0D%3Cbr%3ETorque%3A%20500Nm%20(standard)%3B%20650Nm%20(E-hybrid)%3B%20600Nm%20(S)%0D%0D%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh368%2C500%0D%3Cbr%3EOn%20sale%3A%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Baghdad Clock
Shahad Al Rawi, Oneworld
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
