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Cui bono? Who benefits from the current threat to shipping in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden?
The Houthi forces claim to be defenders of the Palestinian cause. Iran needs to show it is doing something to stand up to Israel and demonstrate some retaliatory power after the assassinations of its operatives. But some less obvious players gain too.
The missiles, drones and small boat attacks have deterred the majority of container traffic. Now bulk carriers, and tankers of oil and liquefied natural gas, are increasingly steering clear of the area, with overall traffic down more than 40 per cent. Consumers suffer from delays and higher costs as insurance bills go up and ships are rerouted around Africa.
The strikes pose serious problems for littoral states. Saudi Arabia has kept its own tanker fleet moving, apparently feeling the risks for now are manageable, but some third-party shippers it uses have pulled out. Its crucial Red Sea ports face significant risks if they want to receive cargo from the south or send it to Asia.
This is troublesome for Yanbu and Rabigh, whose petrochemical industries are mostly focused on exporting to Asia, and for Jizan, whose major new refinery needs to receive crude feedstock from Saudi Arabia’s Gulf ports. Power and desalination plants along the coast need to get fuel, although they could pick up foreign fuel oil cargoes, for instance from Russia.
The East-West pipeline, with its terminus at Yanbu, is mostly used to send cargo to Europe. It does provide Saudi Arabia with a crucial alternative outlet for crude if exports through the Gulf are impeded. But in that case, shipments would either have to head north or through the Bab Al Mandeb.
Egypt was already suffering an economic crisis. Container traffic through the Red Sea has almost ceased, and a drying up of oil and LNG tanker movements would further hit earnings from the Suez Canal. In its last financial year, Cairo earned $9.45 billion from the canal, almost a seventh of government revenue.
Since 2022, Europe has largely managed to replace Russian gas with imports of LNG, mainly from the US and Qatar. QatarEnergy has begun diverting its LNG vessels around Africa.
Fortunately for Europe, the current cold snap has been just a blip in an overall warm winter with ample gas storage and moderate prices. European gas prices have hardly responded to the trouble. But the continent should learn from 2022’s agonising crisis – its safety margin is increasingly thin. A big LNG surplus is on the way from 2026 and 2027 onwards, but only if there are no problems with Doha’s exports and its major LNG expansion projects.
The current Israeli government benefits from a sense of threat and chaos, inclining the US and Europe to keep backing it unquestioningly. Most of Israel’s modest oil needs come from its own output or suppliers to the Mediterranean such as Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.
Further investment in its own offshore gas industry is hampered by a sense of insecurity and risk, and from unwillingness to depend much more on Egypt, which effectively re-exports some Israeli gas via underutilised liquefaction plants. But, if the disruption persists, Cairo and Brussels may see the value in more adjacent gas output.
From Tehran’s point of view, the current situation is ideal. Although it backs the Houthis, they also make their own decisions, so attacks launched from Yemen are at least one step removed. Iran gives a show of defiance, causes trouble for the US and distracts its regional adversaries, without being so provocative as to attract a direct assault on itself.
Except in extremis, Iran does not want to close the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf, since virtually all its rebounding oil exports go to China. Stirring up trouble in the Red Sea is much more palatable. The boarding of a tanker in the Gulf of Oman on January 11 by the Iranian navy was probably a one-off since the same vessel had been seized by the US last year over allegations of transporting Iranian oil.
Meanwhile, Russia's tankers have also mostly continued sailing south through the Red Sea to their vital markets of India and China. Though two Russian-linked ships were attacked in December and on January 12, they were not damaged and these were probably mistakes or misidentifications. Constraining Europe’s gas supplies has not brought Moscow strategic gains yet, but might eventually.
The most interesting case, though, is China.
Other than from Russia’s western ports, its oil imports do not depend on the Bab Al Mandeb. Neither do its LNG purchases. It does not want any interruption to traffic through the Gulf, and this was a crucial part of the Iran-Saudi Arabia normalisation it brokered in March.
Its vital container traffic to Europe, carrying its vast manufacturing exports, is impeded, though, suffering the longer, costlier route around the Cape of Good Hope. That lends weight to European and American aims of limiting dependence on China’s goods. Chinese vessels braving the waterway have signalled their nationality, in the hope of deterring Houthi attacks.
Beijing has been very quiet on the Red Sea crisis, perhaps obeying Napoleon’s dictum, with regards to the US, of “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”. Although it has a military base in Djibouti, it has not taken part in operations to protect shipping.
Washington might think China is free-riding on the US. But it wants even less that Beijing would play an active role. The US fleets are in the Middle East less to protect its own interests than to avoid a vacuum that a rival might fill.
For now, China is willing to let the US bear the cost and shame of its aimless regional approach, where occasional missiles substitute for a serious diplomatic strategy. Yet again, a Middle East irritant distracts the US from much weightier long-term trouble, over Ukraine and Taiwan.
Beijing does not have the ability, inclination or need to play an active role in this region’s security – yet.
Robin M Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
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The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Company profile
Company name: Suraasa
Started: 2018
Founders: Rishabh Khanna, Ankit Khanna and Sahil Makker
Based: India, UAE and the UK
Industry: EdTech
Initial investment: More than $200,000 in seed funding
NBA FINALS SO FAR
(Toronto lead 3-2 in best-of-seven series)
Game 1 Raptors 118 Warriors 109
Game 2 Raptors 104 Warriors 109
Game 3 Warriors 109 Raptors 123
Game 4 Warriors 92 Raptors 105
Game 5 Raptors 105 Warriors 106
Game 6 Thursday, at Oakland
Game 7 Sunday, at Toronto (if needed)
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MATCH INFO
Syria v Australia
2018 World Cup qualifying: Asia fourth round play-off first leg
Venue: Hang Jebat Stadium (Malacca, Malayisa)
Kick-off: Thursday, 4.30pm (UAE)
Watch: beIN Sports HD
* Second leg in Australia scheduled for October 10
The specs
The specs: 2019 Audi Q8
Price, base: Dh315,000
Engine: 3.0-litre turbocharged V6
Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 340hp @ 3,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm @ 2,250rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.7L / 100km
Company profile
Name: Dukkantek
Started: January 2021
Founders: Sanad Yaghi, Ali Al Sayegh and Shadi Joulani
Based: UAE
Number of employees: 140
Sector: B2B Vertical SaaS(software as a service)
Investment: $5.2 million
Funding stage: Seed round
Investors: Global Founders Capital, Colle Capital Partners, Wamda Capital, Plug and Play, Comma Capital, Nowais Capital, Annex Investments and AMK Investment Office
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre 6-cyl turbo
Power: 435hp at 5,900rpm
Torque: 520Nm at 1,800-5,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Price: from Dh498,542
On sale: now
Ways to control drones
Countries have been coming up with ways to restrict and monitor the use of non-commercial drones to keep them from trespassing on controlled areas such as airports.
"Drones vary in size and some can be as big as a small city car - so imagine the impact of one hitting an airplane. It's a huge risk, especially when commercial airliners are not designed to make or take sudden evasive manoeuvres like drones can" says Saj Ahmed, chief analyst at London-based StrategicAero Research.
New measures have now been taken to monitor drone activity, Geo-fencing technology is one.
It's a method designed to prevent drones from drifting into banned areas. The technology uses GPS location signals to stop its machines flying close to airports and other restricted zones.
The European commission has recently announced a blueprint to make drone use in low-level airspace safe, secure and environmentally friendly. This process is called “U-Space” – it covers altitudes of up to 150 metres. It is also noteworthy that that UK Civil Aviation Authority recommends drones to be flown at no higher than 400ft. “U-Space” technology will be governed by a system similar to air traffic control management, which will be automated using tools like geo-fencing.
The UAE has drawn serious measures to ensure users register their devices under strict new laws. Authorities have urged that users must obtain approval in advance before flying the drones, non registered drone use in Dubai will result in a fine of up to twenty thousand dirhams under a new resolution approved by Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed, Crown Prince of Dubai.
Mr Ahmad suggest that "Hefty fines running into hundreds of thousands of dollars need to compensate for the cost of airport disruption and flight diversions to lengthy jail spells, confiscation of travel rights and use of drones for a lengthy period" must be enforced in order to reduce airport intrusion.
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
The five pillars of Islam
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More on Quran memorisation:
Poacher
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UAE%20Warriors%2033%20Results
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Essentials
The flights: You can fly from the UAE to Iceland with one stop in Europe with a variety of airlines. Return flights with Emirates from Dubai to Stockholm, then Icelandair to Reykjavik, cost from Dh4,153 return. The whole trip takes 11 hours. British Airways flies from Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Reykjavik, via London, with return flights taking 12 hours and costing from Dh2,490 return, including taxes.
The activities: A half-day Silfra snorkelling trip costs 14,990 Icelandic kronur (Dh544) with Dive.is. Inside the Volcano also takes half a day and costs 42,000 kronur (Dh1,524). The Jokulsarlon small-boat cruise lasts about an hour and costs 9,800 kronur (Dh356). Into the Glacier costs 19,500 kronur (Dh708). It lasts three to four hours.
The tours: It’s often better to book a tailor-made trip through a specialist operator. UK-based Discover the World offers seven nights, self-driving, across the island from £892 (Dh4,505) per person. This includes three nights’ accommodation at Hotel Husafell near Into the Glacier, two nights at Hotel Ranga and two nights at the Icelandair Hotel Klaustur. It includes car rental, plus an iPad with itinerary and tourist information pre-loaded onto it, while activities can be booked as optional extras. More information inspiredbyiceland.com
