Live updates: Follow the latest news on Israel-Gaza
Cui bono? Who benefits from the current threat to shipping in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden?
The Houthi forces claim to be defenders of the Palestinian cause. Iran needs to show it is doing something to stand up to Israel and demonstrate some retaliatory power after the assassinations of its operatives. But some less obvious players gain too.
The missiles, drones and small boat attacks have deterred the majority of container traffic. Now bulk carriers, and tankers of oil and liquefied natural gas, are increasingly steering clear of the area, with overall traffic down more than 40 per cent. Consumers suffer from delays and higher costs as insurance bills go up and ships are rerouted around Africa.
The strikes pose serious problems for littoral states. Saudi Arabia has kept its own tanker fleet moving, apparently feeling the risks for now are manageable, but some third-party shippers it uses have pulled out. Its crucial Red Sea ports face significant risks if they want to receive cargo from the south or send it to Asia.
This is troublesome for Yanbu and Rabigh, whose petrochemical industries are mostly focused on exporting to Asia, and for Jizan, whose major new refinery needs to receive crude feedstock from Saudi Arabia’s Gulf ports. Power and desalination plants along the coast need to get fuel, although they could pick up foreign fuel oil cargoes, for instance from Russia.
The East-West pipeline, with its terminus at Yanbu, is mostly used to send cargo to Europe. It does provide Saudi Arabia with a crucial alternative outlet for crude if exports through the Gulf are impeded. But in that case, shipments would either have to head north or through the Bab Al Mandeb.
Egypt was already suffering an economic crisis. Container traffic through the Red Sea has almost ceased, and a drying up of oil and LNG tanker movements would further hit earnings from the Suez Canal. In its last financial year, Cairo earned $9.45 billion from the canal, almost a seventh of government revenue.
Since 2022, Europe has largely managed to replace Russian gas with imports of LNG, mainly from the US and Qatar. QatarEnergy has begun diverting its LNG vessels around Africa.
Fortunately for Europe, the current cold snap has been just a blip in an overall warm winter with ample gas storage and moderate prices. European gas prices have hardly responded to the trouble. But the continent should learn from 2022’s agonising crisis – its safety margin is increasingly thin. A big LNG surplus is on the way from 2026 and 2027 onwards, but only if there are no problems with Doha’s exports and its major LNG expansion projects.
The current Israeli government benefits from a sense of threat and chaos, inclining the US and Europe to keep backing it unquestioningly. Most of Israel’s modest oil needs come from its own output or suppliers to the Mediterranean such as Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.
Further investment in its own offshore gas industry is hampered by a sense of insecurity and risk, and from unwillingness to depend much more on Egypt, which effectively re-exports some Israeli gas via underutilised liquefaction plants. But, if the disruption persists, Cairo and Brussels may see the value in more adjacent gas output.
From Tehran’s point of view, the current situation is ideal. Although it backs the Houthis, they also make their own decisions, so attacks launched from Yemen are at least one step removed. Iran gives a show of defiance, causes trouble for the US and distracts its regional adversaries, without being so provocative as to attract a direct assault on itself.
Except in extremis, Iran does not want to close the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf, since virtually all its rebounding oil exports go to China. Stirring up trouble in the Red Sea is much more palatable. The boarding of a tanker in the Gulf of Oman on January 11 by the Iranian navy was probably a one-off since the same vessel had been seized by the US last year over allegations of transporting Iranian oil.
Meanwhile, Russia's tankers have also mostly continued sailing south through the Red Sea to their vital markets of India and China. Though two Russian-linked ships were attacked in December and on January 12, they were not damaged and these were probably mistakes or misidentifications. Constraining Europe’s gas supplies has not brought Moscow strategic gains yet, but might eventually.
The most interesting case, though, is China.
Other than from Russia’s western ports, its oil imports do not depend on the Bab Al Mandeb. Neither do its LNG purchases. It does not want any interruption to traffic through the Gulf, and this was a crucial part of the Iran-Saudi Arabia normalisation it brokered in March.
Its vital container traffic to Europe, carrying its vast manufacturing exports, is impeded, though, suffering the longer, costlier route around the Cape of Good Hope. That lends weight to European and American aims of limiting dependence on China’s goods. Chinese vessels braving the waterway have signalled their nationality, in the hope of deterring Houthi attacks.
Beijing has been very quiet on the Red Sea crisis, perhaps obeying Napoleon’s dictum, with regards to the US, of “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”. Although it has a military base in Djibouti, it has not taken part in operations to protect shipping.
Washington might think China is free-riding on the US. But it wants even less that Beijing would play an active role. The US fleets are in the Middle East less to protect its own interests than to avoid a vacuum that a rival might fill.
For now, China is willing to let the US bear the cost and shame of its aimless regional approach, where occasional missiles substitute for a serious diplomatic strategy. Yet again, a Middle East irritant distracts the US from much weightier long-term trouble, over Ukraine and Taiwan.
Beijing does not have the ability, inclination or need to play an active role in this region’s security – yet.
Robin M Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
As You Were
Liam Gallagher
(Warner Bros)
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Match info:
Manchester City 2
Sterling (8'), Walker (52')
Newcastle United 1
Yedlin (30')
Abandon
Sangeeta Bandyopadhyay
Translated by Arunava Sinha
Tilted Axis Press
Ready Player One
Dir: Steven Spielberg
Starring: Tye Sheridan, Olivia Cooke, Ben Mendelsohn, Mark Rylance
How Tesla’s price correction has hit fund managers
Investing in disruptive technology can be a bumpy ride, as investors in Tesla were reminded on Friday, when its stock dropped 7.5 per cent in early trading to $575.
It recovered slightly but still ended the week 15 per cent lower and is down a third from its all-time high of $883 on January 26. The electric car maker’s market cap fell from $834 billion to about $567bn in that time, a drop of an astonishing $267bn, and a blow for those who bought Tesla stock late.
The collapse also hit fund managers that have gone big on Tesla, notably the UK-based Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF.
Tesla is the top holding in both funds, making up a hefty 10 per cent of total assets under management. Both funds have fallen by a quarter in the past month.
Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, recently warned that Tesla founder Elon Musk had “flown a bit too close to the sun”, after getting carried away by investing $1.5bn of the company’s money in Bitcoin.
He also predicted Tesla’s sales could struggle as traditional auto manufacturers ramp up electric car production, destroying its first mover advantage.
AJ Bell’s Russ Mould warns that many investors buy tech stocks when earnings forecasts are rising, almost regardless of valuation. “When it works, it really works. But when it goes wrong, elevated valuations leave little or no downside protection.”
A Tesla correction was probably baked in after last year’s astonishing share price surge, and many investors will see this as an opportunity to load up at a reduced price.
Dramatic swings are to be expected when investing in disruptive technology, as Ms Wood at ARK makes clear.
Every week, she sends subscribers a commentary listing “stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15 per cent in a day” during the week.
Her latest commentary, issued on Friday, showed seven stocks displaying extreme volatility, led by ExOne, a leader in binder jetting 3D printing technology. It jumped 24 per cent, boosted by news that fellow 3D printing specialist Stratasys had beaten fourth-quarter revenues and earnings expectations, seen as good news for the sector.
By contrast, computational drug and material discovery company Schrödinger fell 27 per cent after quarterly and full-year results showed its core software sales and drug development pipeline slowing.
Despite that setback, Ms Wood remains positive, arguing that its “medicinal chemistry platform offers a powerful and unique view into chemical space”.
In her weekly video view, she remains bullish, stating that: “We are on the right side of change, and disruptive innovation is going to deliver exponential growth trajectories for many of our companies, in fact, most of them.”
Ms Wood remains committed to Tesla as she expects global electric car sales to compound at an average annual rate of 82 per cent for the next five years.
She said these are so “enormous that some people find them unbelievable”, and argues that this scepticism, especially among institutional investors, “festers” and creates a great opportunity for ARK.
Only you can decide whether you are a believer or a festering sceptic. If it’s the former, then buckle up.
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
The%20specs
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Scores
Wales 74-24 Tonga
England 35-15 Japan
Italy 7-26 Australia
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PROFILE OF HALAN
Started: November 2017
Founders: Mounir Nakhla, Ahmed Mohsen and Mohamed Aboulnaga
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport and logistics
Size: 150 employees
Investment: approximately $8 million
Investors include: Singapore’s Battery Road Digital Holdings, Egypt’s Algebra Ventures, Uber co-founder and former CTO Oscar Salazar
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20M3%20MACBOOK%20AIR%20(13%22)
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The Limehouse Golem
Director: Juan Carlos Medina
Cast: Olivia Cooke, Bill Nighy, Douglas Booth
Three stars
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Jurassic%20Park
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More from Aya Iskandarani
Like a Fading Shadow
Antonio Muñoz Molina
Translated from the Spanish by Camilo A. Ramirez
Tuskar Rock Press (pp. 310)
The%20specs
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UAE squad
Esha Oza (captain), Al Maseera Jahangir, Emily Thomas, Heena Hotchandani, Indhuja Nandakumar, Katie Thompson, Lavanya Keny, Mehak Thakur, Michelle Botha, Rinitha Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Siya Gokhale, Sashikala Silva, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish (wicketkeeper) Udeni Kuruppuarachchige, Vaishnave Mahesh.
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – First ODI
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
The years Ramadan fell in May
Race 3
Produced: Salman Khan Films and Tips Films
Director: Remo D’Souza
Cast: Salman Khan, Anil Kapoor, Jacqueline Fernandez, Bobby Deol, Daisy Shah, Saqib Salem
Rating: 2.5 stars
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20S24%20ULTRA
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BULKWHIZ PROFILE
Date started: February 2017
Founders: Amira Rashad (CEO), Yusuf Saber (CTO), Mahmoud Sayedahmed (adviser), Reda Bouraoui (adviser)
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: E-commerce
Size: 50 employees
Funding: approximately $6m
Investors: Beco Capital, Enabling Future and Wain in the UAE; China's MSA Capital; 500 Startups; Faith Capital and Savour Ventures in Kuwait
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY PROFILE
● Company: Bidzi
● Started: 2024
● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid
● Based: Dubai, UAE
● Industry: M&A
● Funding size: Bootstrapped
● No of employees: Nine
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Mamo Year it started: 2019 Founders: Imad Gharazeddine, Asim Janjua Based: Dubai, UAE Number of employees: 28 Sector: Financial services Investment: $9.5m Funding stage: Pre-Series A Investors: Global Ventures, GFC, 4DX Ventures, AlRajhi Partners, Olive Tree Capital, and prominent Silicon Valley investors. Day 2, Dubai Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Pakistan’s effort in the field had hints of shambles about it. The wheels were officially off when Wahab Riaz lost his run up and aborted the delivery four times in a row. He re-measured his run, jogged in for two practice goes. Then, when he was finally ready to go, he bailed out again. It was a total cringefest.
Stat of the day – 139.5 Yasir Shah has bowled 139.5 overs in three innings so far in this Test series. Judged by his returns, the workload has not withered him. He has 14 wickets so far, and became history’s first spinner to take five-wickets in an innings in five consecutive Tests. Not bad for someone whose fitness was in question before the series.
The verdict Stranger things have happened, but it is going to take something extraordinary for Pakistan to keep their undefeated record in Test series in the UAE in tact from this position. At least Shan Masood and Sami Aslam have made a positive start to the salvage effort.
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
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Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
