Live updates: Follow the latest news on Cop28
Opec negotiations have become almost as complex as the Byzantine world of climate diplomacy. The delay to the oil exporters’ talks made them coincide with Cop28, another Middle East-centric event in which the needs of Africa and Latin America feature prominently. As the group struggles to balance the imperatives of market share and prices, a helping hand would be welcome.
The latest deal on production targets seems to exceed the market’s pre-meeting expectations for a rollover of production levels. But it has had a limited effect on prices, mainly because nobody can work out what it means. Brent crude dropped from $82.83 per barrel on the day of the discussions to $79 on Friday.
From the relatively simple matter of saying how much oil Opec will produce and over what period, we now have a welter of targets, baselines, voluntary cuts, export cuts and curbing overproduction. Because the new cuts are considered voluntary, countries publish them individually rather than having an agreed Opec statement, making it hard to aggregate.
Results depend on how we assess Russia’s promise to cut exports of fuel oil, the extension of the voluntary cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, the UAE’s cuts – but from its promised higher baseline next year – Iraq’s reductions versus its current under-compliance, and African members’ inability to produce up to their target levels. Apparent additional cuts of about 900,000 barrels per day might in reality turn out to be 600,000 bpd or less.
Saudi Arabia’s voluntary cut has proved a successful tool – since it could be withdrawn at any point, it serves to threaten recalcitrant members with a sharp drop in prices if they do not sign up for cuts.
But it should be a major concern to Riyadh that despite the strong post-pandemic demand rebound, its production this year is still likely to be lower than in 2014, the year when prices slumped. And Opec’s total output is about 3 million bpd less than it was then.
So, of more significance than the production levels – which can be revised at any time – is a fundamental structural change.
Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is in Dubai for Cop28, as part of a tour that also takes in Germany, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Brazil's energy minister Alexandre Silveira told the Opec meeting that his country would join the charter from next year.
On the face of it, the promised accession of Brazil is a coup. Forecast to gain 370,000 bpd this year, it is the biggest non-Opec contributor to global oil production growth after the US. With 3.7 million bpd of total crude output, it would be the fourth-largest Opec producer, after Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, adding almost 4 percentage points to the group’s market share and taking it well over half of the global total.
For now, Brazil won’t be bound by production restrictions. Jean Paul Prates, chief executive of state oil company Petrobras, said that Opec “is aware that Brazil can’t be subject to quotas as it has a publicly traded company”.
Just over half of Petrobras’s common stock is held by Brazilian government entities, and the rest by private investors. That condition applies to several other Opec countries, though – even Saudi Arabia, as well as Russia.
Indeed, Petrobras has ambitious expansion goals. It has budgeted to spend $102 billion over the next five years, up 31 per cent from the previous five-year period, and 72 per cent of which is directed to oil and gas exploration and production.
The International Energy Agency thinks that by 2027, Brazil and neighbouring Guyana will eclipse the US as the main contributors to non-Opec production growth, with Brazil adding one million bpd by 2028.
It would not make sense for Brazil to constrain its growth, in addition to current major projects in its famous “pre-salt” deepwater offshore area. It is also exploring new areas including its northern Equatorial Margin, seeking to find an extension of Guyana’s prolific geology.
But the odds have just dramatically increased that, if there were a sharp price drop, another global financial crisis or a Covid-type shock, Brazil would help out with production cuts. And, as the Opec experience after the pandemic illustrates, temporary cuts easily become quasi-permanent.
So Brazil’s accession doesn’t put a ceiling on oil prices, but it does strengthen the floor. Guyana won’t join Opec while still in its phase of rapid growth, so Brazil was about the only remaining large candidate.
Now, the spectre of future production curbs might deter some investment in one of the few leading oil producers that continues to attract western majors.
The political significance and symbolism are yet more important. It would be the second of the original five Brics nations to join Opec+. The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Iran were also invited in August to join the bloc.
As an independent-minded but generally western-friendly power, the South American country brings a large population, economy, political clout and credibility with developing countries. Alongside its oil and gas sector, it has a world-leading biofuels programme and is a large hydropower leader.
It is a crucial steward of the Amazon rainforest, after the previous attempts of former president Jair Bolsonaro to open its vulnerable ecosystems for mining, ranching and logging.
Mr da Silva probably surprised his colleagues-to-be when he declared at Cop28: “I think it's important for us to take part in Opec, because we need to convince the countries that produce oil that they need to prepare for the end of fossil fuels.”
So Brazil offers at least moral support in the quest of Opec to regain a decade of production cuts without crashing prices again. In any renewed crisis, its practical help could be very useful. And it could help to shift the dialogue within the oil exporters’ group: from market micromanagement to wider goals of reconciling petroleum production with climate.
Robin M Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of 'The Myth of the Oil Crisis'
Director: Jon Favreau
Starring: Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, John Oliver
Rating: 2 out of 5 stars
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
RACE CARD AND SELECTIONS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,200m
5,30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,200m
6pm: The President’s Cup Listed (TB) Dh380,000 1,400m
6.30pm: The President’s Cup Group One (PA) Dh2,500,000 2,200m
7pm: Arabian Triple Crown Listed (PA) Dh230,000 1,600m
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
The National selections
5pm: RB Hot Spot
5.30pm: Dahess D’Arabie
6pm: Taamol
6.30pm: Rmmas
7pm: RB Seqondtonone
7.30pm: AF Mouthirah
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
More on Quran memorisation:
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U19 WORLD CUP, WEST INDIES
UAE group fixtures (all in St Kitts)
Saturday 15 January: v Canada
Thursday 20 January: v England
Saturday 22 January: v Bangladesh
UAE squad
Alishan Sharafu (captain), Shival Bawa, Jash Giyanani, Sailles Jaishankar, Nilansh Keswani, Aayan Khan, Punya Mehra, Ali Naseer, Ronak Panoly, Dhruv Parashar, Vinayak Raghavan, Soorya Sathish, Aryansh Sharma, Adithya Shetty, Kai Smith
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THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
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Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 240hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 390Nm at 3,000rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh122,745
On sale: now
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Moonfall
Director: Rolan Emmerich
Stars: Patrick Wilson, Halle Berry
Rating: 3/5
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The Details
Kabir Singh
Produced by: Cinestaan Studios, T-Series
Directed by: Sandeep Reddy Vanga
Starring: Shahid Kapoor, Kiara Advani, Suresh Oberoi, Soham Majumdar, Arjun Pahwa
Rating: 2.5/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
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Brief scoreline:
Liverpool 2
Keita 5', Firmino 26'
Porto 0
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Racecard
5pm: Al Maha Stables – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,600m
5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,600m
6pm: Emirates Fillies Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m
6.30pm: Emirates Colts Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m
7pm: The President’s Cup – Group 1 (PA) Dh2,500,000 (T) 2,200m
7.30pm: The President’s Cup – Listed (TB) Dh380,000 (T) 1,400m
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup – Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
'The Ice Road'
Director: Jonathan Hensleigh
Stars: Liam Neeson, Amber Midthunder, Laurence Fishburne
2/5
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Ain Dubai in numbers
126: The length in metres of the legs supporting the structure
1 football pitch: The length of each permanent spoke is longer than a professional soccer pitch
16 A380 Airbuses: The equivalent weight of the wheel rim.
9,000 tonnes: The amount of steel used to construct the project.
5 tonnes: The weight of each permanent spoke that is holding the wheel rim in place
192: The amount of cable wires used to create the wheel. They measure a distance of 2,4000km in total, the equivalent of the distance between Dubai and Cairo.
EXPATS
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UAE v Zimbabwe A, 50 over series
Fixtures
Thursday, Nov 9 - 9.30am, ICC Academy, Dubai
Saturday, Nov 11 – 9.30am, ICC Academy, Dubai
Monday, Nov 13 – 2pm, Dubai International Stadium
Thursday, Nov 16 – 2pm, ICC Academy, Dubai
Saturday, Nov 18 – 9.30am, ICC Academy, Dubai
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
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Story of 2017-18 so far and schedule to come
Roll of Honour
Who has won what so far in the West Asia rugby season?
Western Clubs Champions League
Winners: Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Runners up: Bahrain
Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners: Dubai Exiles
Runners up: Jebel Ali Dragons
West Asia Premiership
Winners: Jebel Ali Dragons
Runners up: Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Premiership Cup
Winners: Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Runners up: Dubai Exiles
Fixtures
Friday
West Asia Cup final
5pm, Bahrain (6pm UAE time), Bahrain v Dubai Exiles
West Asia Trophy final
3pm, The Sevens, Dubai Hurricanes v Dubai Sports City Eagles
Friday, April 13
UAE Premiership final
5pm, Al Ain, Dubai Exiles v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
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ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
