Live updates: Follow the latest news on Cop28
Opec negotiations have become almost as complex as the Byzantine world of climate diplomacy. The delay to the oil exporters’ talks made them coincide with Cop28, another Middle East-centric event in which the needs of Africa and Latin America feature prominently. As the group struggles to balance the imperatives of market share and prices, a helping hand would be welcome.
The latest deal on production targets seems to exceed the market’s pre-meeting expectations for a rollover of production levels. But it has had a limited effect on prices, mainly because nobody can work out what it means. Brent crude dropped from $82.83 per barrel on the day of the discussions to $79 on Friday.
From the relatively simple matter of saying how much oil Opec will produce and over what period, we now have a welter of targets, baselines, voluntary cuts, export cuts and curbing overproduction. Because the new cuts are considered voluntary, countries publish them individually rather than having an agreed Opec statement, making it hard to aggregate.
Results depend on how we assess Russia’s promise to cut exports of fuel oil, the extension of the voluntary cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, the UAE’s cuts – but from its promised higher baseline next year – Iraq’s reductions versus its current under-compliance, and African members’ inability to produce up to their target levels. Apparent additional cuts of about 900,000 barrels per day might in reality turn out to be 600,000 bpd or less.
Saudi Arabia’s voluntary cut has proved a successful tool – since it could be withdrawn at any point, it serves to threaten recalcitrant members with a sharp drop in prices if they do not sign up for cuts.
But it should be a major concern to Riyadh that despite the strong post-pandemic demand rebound, its production this year is still likely to be lower than in 2014, the year when prices slumped. And Opec’s total output is about 3 million bpd less than it was then.
So, of more significance than the production levels – which can be revised at any time – is a fundamental structural change.
Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is in Dubai for Cop28, as part of a tour that also takes in Germany, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Brazil's energy minister Alexandre Silveira told the Opec meeting that his country would join the charter from next year.
On the face of it, the promised accession of Brazil is a coup. Forecast to gain 370,000 bpd this year, it is the biggest non-Opec contributor to global oil production growth after the US. With 3.7 million bpd of total crude output, it would be the fourth-largest Opec producer, after Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, adding almost 4 percentage points to the group’s market share and taking it well over half of the global total.
For now, Brazil won’t be bound by production restrictions. Jean Paul Prates, chief executive of state oil company Petrobras, said that Opec “is aware that Brazil can’t be subject to quotas as it has a publicly traded company”.
Just over half of Petrobras’s common stock is held by Brazilian government entities, and the rest by private investors. That condition applies to several other Opec countries, though – even Saudi Arabia, as well as Russia.
Indeed, Petrobras has ambitious expansion goals. It has budgeted to spend $102 billion over the next five years, up 31 per cent from the previous five-year period, and 72 per cent of which is directed to oil and gas exploration and production.
The International Energy Agency thinks that by 2027, Brazil and neighbouring Guyana will eclipse the US as the main contributors to non-Opec production growth, with Brazil adding one million bpd by 2028.
It would not make sense for Brazil to constrain its growth, in addition to current major projects in its famous “pre-salt” deepwater offshore area. It is also exploring new areas including its northern Equatorial Margin, seeking to find an extension of Guyana’s prolific geology.
But the odds have just dramatically increased that, if there were a sharp price drop, another global financial crisis or a Covid-type shock, Brazil would help out with production cuts. And, as the Opec experience after the pandemic illustrates, temporary cuts easily become quasi-permanent.
So Brazil’s accession doesn’t put a ceiling on oil prices, but it does strengthen the floor. Guyana won’t join Opec while still in its phase of rapid growth, so Brazil was about the only remaining large candidate.
Now, the spectre of future production curbs might deter some investment in one of the few leading oil producers that continues to attract western majors.
The political significance and symbolism are yet more important. It would be the second of the original five Brics nations to join Opec+. The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Iran were also invited in August to join the bloc.
As an independent-minded but generally western-friendly power, the South American country brings a large population, economy, political clout and credibility with developing countries. Alongside its oil and gas sector, it has a world-leading biofuels programme and is a large hydropower leader.
It is a crucial steward of the Amazon rainforest, after the previous attempts of former president Jair Bolsonaro to open its vulnerable ecosystems for mining, ranching and logging.
Mr da Silva probably surprised his colleagues-to-be when he declared at Cop28: “I think it's important for us to take part in Opec, because we need to convince the countries that produce oil that they need to prepare for the end of fossil fuels.”
So Brazil offers at least moral support in the quest of Opec to regain a decade of production cuts without crashing prices again. In any renewed crisis, its practical help could be very useful. And it could help to shift the dialogue within the oil exporters’ group: from market micromanagement to wider goals of reconciling petroleum production with climate.
Robin M Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of 'The Myth of the Oil Crisis'
Rashid & Rajab
Director: Mohammed Saeed Harib
Stars: Shadi Alfons, Marwan Abdullah, Doaa Mostafa Ragab
Two stars out of five
Scores
Oman 109-3 in 18.4 overs (Aqib Ilyas 45 not out, Aamir Kaleem 27) beat UAE 108-9 in 20 overs (Usman 27, Mustafa 24, Fayyaz 3-16, Bilal 3-23)
Test squad: Azhar Ali (captain), Abid Ali, Asad Shafiq, Babar Azam, Haris Sohail, Imam-ul-Haq, Imran Khan, Iftikhar Ahmed, Kashif Bhatti, Mohammad Abbas, Mohammad Rizwan(wicketkeeper), Musa Khan, Naseem Shah, Shaheen Afridi, Shan Masood, Yasir Shah
Twenty20 squad: Babar Azam (captain), Asif Ali, Fakhar Zaman, Haris Sohail, Iftikhar Ahmed, Imad Wasim, Imam-ul-Haq, Khushdil Shah, Mohammad Amir, Mohammad Hasnain, Mohammad Irfan, Mohammad Rizwan (wicketkeeper), Musa Khan, Shadab Khan, Usman Qadir, Wahab Riaz
Zayed Sustainability Prize
MATCH INFO
Norwich 0
Watford 2 (Deulofeu 2', Gray 52')
Red card: Christian Kabasele (WatforD)
MATCH INFO
Qalandars 112-4 (10 ovs)
Banton 53 no
Northern Warriors 46 all out (9 ovs)
Kumara 3-10, Garton 3-10, Jordan 2-2, Prasanna 2-7
Qalandars win by six wickets
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Results
2.15pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,700m; Winner: AF Arrab, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer).
2.45pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,700m; Winner: AF Mahaleel, Antonio Fresu, Ernst Oertel.
3.15pm: Sheikh Ahmed bin Rashid Al Maktoum handicap (TB) Dh200,000 2,000m; Winner: Dolmen, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
3.45pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,200m; Winner: Amang Alawda, Sandro Paiva, Bakhit Al Ketbi.
4.15pm: The Crown Prince of Sharjah Cup Prestige (PA) Dh200,000 1,200m; Winner: AF Alwajel, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.
4.45pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 2,000m; Winner: Al Jazi, Jesus Rosales, Eric Lemartinel.
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Richard Jewell
Director: Clint Eastwood
Stars: Paul Walter Hauser, Sam Rockwell, Brandon Stanley
Two-and-a-half out of five stars
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RESULTS
6.30pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 Group One (PA) US$65,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
Winner RB Money To Burn, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer).
7.05pm Handicap (TB) $175,000 (Turf) 1,200m
Winner Ekhtiyaar, Jim Crowley, Doug Watson.
7.40pm UAE 2000 Guineas Trial Conditions (TB) $100,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner Commanding, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
8.15pm Singspiel Stakes Group Two (TB) $250,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner Benbatl, Christophe Soumillon, Saeed bin Suroor.
8.50pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner Zakouski, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
9.25pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 Group Two (TB) $350,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner Kimbear, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
10pm Dubai Trophy Conditions (TB) $100,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner Platinum Star, Christophe Soumillon, Saeed bin Suroor.
10.35pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner Key Victory, James Doyle, Charlie Appleby.
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RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 2,200m
Winner: Arjan, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer).
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: Jap Nazaa, Royston Ffrench, Irfan Ellahi.
6pm: Al Ruwais Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 1,200m
Winner: RB Lam Tara, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinal.
6.30pm: Shadwell Gold Cup Prestige Dh125,000 1,600m
Winner: AF Sanad, Bernardo Pinheiro, Khalifa Al Neyadi.
7pm: Shadwell Farm Stallions Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Patrick Cosgrave, Abdallah Al Hammadi.
7.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 1,600m
Winner: Dubai Canal, Harry Bentley, Satish Seemar.
Overview
What: The Arab Women’s Sports Tournament is a biennial multisport event exclusively for Arab women athletes.
When: From Sunday, February 2, to Wednesday, February 12.
Where: At 13 different centres across Sharjah.
Disciplines: Athletics, archery, basketball, fencing, Karate, table tennis, shooting (rifle and pistol), show jumping and volleyball.
Participating countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Qatar and UAE.
RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m, Winner SS Lamea, Saif Al Balushi (jockey), Ibrahim Al Hadhrami (trainer).
5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,400m, Winner AF Makerah, Sean Kirrane, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m, Winner Maaly Al Reef, Brett Doyle, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh90,000 1,600m, Winner AF Momtaz, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 2,200m, Winner Morjanah Al Reef, Brett Doyle, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 2,200m, Winner Mudarrab, Jim Crowley, Erwan Charpy
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
TUESDAY'S ORDER OF PLAY
Centre Court
Starting at 2pm:
Malin Cilic (CRO) v Benoit Paire (FRA) [8]
Not before 4pm:
Dan Evans (GBR) v Fabio Fogini (ITA) [4]
Not before 7pm:
Pablo Carreno Busta (SPA) v Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) [2]
Roberto Bautista Agut (SPA) [5] v Jan-Lennard Struff (GER)
Court One
Starting at 2pm
Prajnesh Gunneswaran (IND) v Dennis Novak (AUT)
Joao Sousa (POR) v Filip Krajinovic (SRB)
Not before 5pm:
Rajeev Ram (USA) and Joe Salisbury (GBR) [1] v Marin Cilic v Novak Djokovic (SRB)
Nikoloz Basilashvili v Ricardas Berankis (LTU)
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The years Ramadan fell in May
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%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20S%20Frederick%20Starr%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Oxford%20University%20Press%3Cbr%3EPages%3A%20290%3Cbr%3EAvailable%3A%20January%2024%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ahmed Raza
UAE cricket captain
Age: 31
Born: Sharjah
Role: Left-arm spinner
One-day internationals: 31 matches, 35 wickets, average 31.4, economy rate 3.95
T20 internationals: 41 matches, 29 wickets, average 30.3, economy rate 6.28
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Where to donate in the UAE
The Emirates Charity Portal
You can donate to several registered charities through a “donation catalogue”. The use of the donation is quite specific, such as buying a fan for a poor family in Niger for Dh130.
The General Authority of Islamic Affairs & Endowments
The site has an e-donation service accepting debit card, credit card or e-Dirham, an electronic payment tool developed by the Ministry of Finance and First Abu Dhabi Bank.
Al Noor Special Needs Centre
You can donate online or order Smiles n’ Stuff products handcrafted by Al Noor students. The centre publishes a wish list of extras needed, starting at Dh500.
Beit Al Khair Society
Beit Al Khair Society has the motto “From – and to – the UAE,” with donations going towards the neediest in the country. Its website has a list of physical donation sites, but people can also contribute money by SMS, bank transfer and through the hotline 800-22554.
Dar Al Ber Society
Dar Al Ber Society, which has charity projects in 39 countries, accept cash payments, money transfers or SMS donations. Its donation hotline is 800-79.
Dubai Cares
Dubai Cares provides several options for individuals and companies to donate, including online, through banks, at retail outlets, via phone and by purchasing Dubai Cares branded merchandise. It is currently running a campaign called Bookings 2030, which allows people to help change the future of six underprivileged children and young people.
Emirates Airline Foundation
Those who travel on Emirates have undoubtedly seen the little donation envelopes in the seat pockets. But the foundation also accepts donations online and in the form of Skywards Miles. Donated miles are used to sponsor travel for doctors, surgeons, engineers and other professionals volunteering on humanitarian missions around the world.
Emirates Red Crescent
On the Emirates Red Crescent website you can choose between 35 different purposes for your donation, such as providing food for fasters, supporting debtors and contributing to a refugee women fund. It also has a list of bank accounts for each donation type.
Gulf for Good
Gulf for Good raises funds for partner charity projects through challenges, like climbing Kilimanjaro and cycling through Thailand. This year’s projects are in partnership with Street Child Nepal, Larchfield Kids, the Foundation for African Empowerment and SOS Children's Villages. Since 2001, the organisation has raised more than $3.5 million (Dh12.8m) in support of over 50 children’s charities.
Noor Dubai Foundation
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched the Noor Dubai Foundation a decade ago with the aim of eliminating all forms of preventable blindness globally. You can donate Dh50 to support mobile eye camps by texting the word “Noor” to 4565 (Etisalat) or 4849 (du).
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Who is Allegra Stratton?
- Previously worked at The Guardian, BBC’s Newsnight programme and ITV News
- Took up a public relations role for Chancellor Rishi Sunak in April 2020
- In October 2020 she was hired to lead No 10’s planned daily televised press briefings
- The idea was later scrapped and she was appointed spokeswoman for Cop26
- Ms Stratton, 41, is married to James Forsyth, the political editor of The Spectator
- She has strong connections to the Conservative establishment
- Mr Sunak served as best man at her 2011 wedding to Mr Forsyth
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Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten
Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a month before Reaching the Last Mile.
Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
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UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – UAE won by 36 runs
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
