Cop28, the UN climate conference, opens on November 30 at Dubai Expo City. Climate activists hope it won’t unlock a path to more oil and gas production.
Is there a justification for investing in hydrocarbon extraction in a world trying to get on track for net zero?
This question goes well beyond simplistic headlines. Overinvesting could, at best, waste a lot of money and, at worst, as many fear, lock us into a world of high emissions and catastrophic global heating.
Conversely, not spending enough could mean an energy crunch, very high oil prices, economic and geopolitical disruption, and possibly a turn against ambitious climate policies.
This debate was crystallised by the International Energy Agency’s declaration in 2021 that, in a world on a path towards net-zero emissions, no new oil and gasfields would need to be developed. The IEA reiterated and updated that view in September.
This framing is wrong, or at least, backwards. Environmentalists remain locked in a mindset of limited resources, in which every barrel of oil, cubic foot of gas or tonne of coal will eventually be dug up and burnt, if not prevented.
In reality, long-term demand determines supply, not vice versa. If oil is not required, because of the adoption of electric vehicles and other alternatives, prices will fall and investment will stop.
The example of the long slump from 1986 to 2001 is instructive.
Following the slump of global demand during that period, Opec spent two decades inching back to full capacity; countries such as Libya, Venezuela and Indonesia have never regained their 1970s highs.
How exactly a “net zero” pathway plays out depends on how the major producers – particularly Opec and its allies – respond.
Net zero does not mean absolute zero. A variety of sustainable development and net-zero scenarios have between 17 million and 45 million barrels per day of oil use in 2050, from about 102 million bpd this year.
And it will not have escaped notice that we are, unfortunately, nowhere near on track for global net zero. Oil companies have to tackle environmental challenges honestly, but they can invest for the world as we would wish it, or the world as it is.
Watch: What is Cop28?
Within the carbon budget, there is room to use oil in non-emitting uses – to make long-lived chemicals and plastics, or to combust it with carbon capture and storage, albeit this is more applicable to gas.
Remaining unavoidable uses of oil, notably in aviation, can be offset with carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere by technological, mineralogical and biological methods. These should not be over-relied on but should not be rejected either.
Adnoc has one of the world’s largest expansion plans. From about 4.5 million bpd of capacity today, and 2.94 million bpd of actual production in October (limited by Opec+ targets), it aims to reach 5 million bpd by 2027. This is an advance on its previous 2030 timeline.
However, building that capacity does not necessarily mean that it uses it as it depends on the UAE's view of the market, the level of prices and other occurrences – such as politically driven supply disruptions.
Of other notable gainers, Saudi Aramco is in the process of adding 1 million bpd of capacity by 2027, the US Energy Information Administration foresees about 1.5 million bpd extra American output by the mid-2020s, while Guyana, which only began production in 2019, could reach 1.2 million bpd by 2027.
Iraq’s future output will fall well short of its ambitions and geological potential, but it too could see significant gains. Brazil has struggled to grow output consistently but might add up to 1.6 million bpd by 2030.
Other than that, and wild cards such as exploration hotspot Namibia, sanction-hit Iran or insecurity-plagued Libya, most other countries seem set for declines or at most, moderate increases, particularly beyond 2030.
Whether oil production to 2050 is large or much more limited, it’s best that it be with the lowest possible carbon footprint
Robin Mills
Upstream production accounts for about 15 per cent of the climate impact of a barrel of oil, but with wide variation.
Energy-intensive producers of heavy oil, or with extensive gas flaring, such as Algeria, Canada, Venezuela, Russia and Iran, have upstream emissions equivalent to a quarter of each barrel.
For the most carbon-frugal, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Norway and Denmark, that figure is as low as 6 per cent.
Adnoc and others plan to make further improvements: reducing methane leakage to near-zero, eliminating the flaring of unwanted gas, electrifying facilities and powering them with nuclear and solar power, and expanding carbon capture and storage.
Whether oil production to 2050 is large or much more limited, it’s best that it be with the lowest possible carbon footprint.
After a few years of plateau, oilfield output declines naturally as fields deplete. This decline rate depends on the field’s geology and the nature of its oil, and how aggressively it is developed.
Giant Middle Eastern fields, produced conservatively, may show little or no decline for decades. At the opposite extreme, shale wells are notorious for losing half or more of their output in the first year.
Oil production capacity can always be idled or saved for later, if not required. In the converse situation, though, it can’t be built quickly if suddenly needed.
That was amply demonstrated last year when, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a parade of top politicians from US President Joe Biden to German Vice Chancellor and Green Party member Robert Habeck appeared in the Gulf to request more oil and gas output.
President Sheikh Mohamed meets participants in pre-Cop28 talks in Abu Dhabi – in pictures
It’s odd that, having spent five decades since the first oil shock in 1973 trying to diversify oil production to ensure supply security, that Western energy policy now goes in the opposite direction.
So, the world must work intensively on hugely expanding zero-carbon options such as renewables, electric vehicles and hydrogen, advancing non-emitting uses of fossil fuels, and decarbonising remaining production.
This is inevitably a messy, complicated and frustrating picture. But it’s more realistic and honest than a simplistic idea that oil companies’ production decisions determine the fate of global climate policy.
Robin M. Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
PRO BASH
Thursday’s fixtures
6pm: Hyderabad Nawabs v Pakhtoon Warriors
10pm: Lahore Sikandars v Pakhtoon Blasters
Teams
Chennai Knights, Lahore Sikandars, Pakhtoon Blasters, Abu Dhabi Stars, Abu Dhabi Dragons, Pakhtoon Warriors and Hyderabad Nawabs.
Squad rules
All teams consist of 15-player squads that include those contracted in the diamond (3), platinum (2) and gold (2) categories, plus eight free to sign team members.
Tournament rules
The matches are of 25 over-a-side with an 8-over power play in which only two fielders allowed outside the 30-yard circle. Teams play in a single round robin league followed by the semi-finals and final. The league toppers will feature in the semi-final eliminator.
Nepotism is the name of the game
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Teaching your child to save
Pre-school (three - five years)
You can’t yet talk about investing or borrowing, but introduce a “classic” money bank and start putting gifts and allowances away. When the child wants a specific toy, have them save for it and help them track their progress.
Early childhood (six - eight years)
Replace the money bank with three jars labelled ‘saving’, ‘spending’ and ‘sharing’. Have the child divide their allowance into the three jars each week and explain their choices in splitting their pocket money. A guide could be 25 per cent saving, 50 per cent spending, 25 per cent for charity and gift-giving.
Middle childhood (nine - 11 years)
Open a bank savings account and help your child establish a budget and set a savings goal. Introduce the notion of ‘paying yourself first’ by putting away savings as soon as your allowance is paid.
Young teens (12 - 14 years)
Change your child’s allowance from weekly to monthly and help them pinpoint long-range goals such as a trip, so they can start longer-term saving and find new ways to increase their saving.
Teenage (15 - 18 years)
Discuss mutual expectations about university costs and identify what they can help fund and set goals. Don’t pay for everything, so they can experience the pride of contributing.
Young adulthood (19 - 22 years)
Discuss post-graduation plans and future life goals, quantify expenses such as first apartment, work wardrobe, holidays and help them continue to save towards these goals.
* JP Morgan Private Bank
Honeymoonish
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The permutations for UAE going to the 2018 World Cup finals
To qualify automatically
UAE must beat Iraq.
Australia must lose in Japan and at home to Thailand, with their losing margins and the UAE's winning margin over Iraq being enough to overturn a goal difference gap of eight.
Saudi Arabia must lose to Japan, with their losing margin and the UAE's winning margin over Iraq being enough to overturn a goal difference gap of eight.
To finish third and go into a play-off with the other third-placed AFC side for a chance to reach the inter-confederation play-off match
UAE must beat Iraq.
Saudi Arabia must lose to Japan, with their losing margin and the UAE's winning margin over Iraq being enough to overturn a goal difference gap of eight.
Results
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,200m, Winner: ES Rubban, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ibrahim Aseel (trainer)
5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh85,000 (T) 1,200m, Winner: Al Mobher, Sczcepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
6pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m, Winner: Jabalini, Tadhg O’Shea, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
6.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m, Winner: AF Abahe, Tadgh O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh85,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: AF Makerah, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: Law Of Peace, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The%20specs
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Sri Lanka World Cup squad
Dimuth Karunaratne (c), Lasith Malinga, Angelo Mathews, Thisara Perera, Kusal Perera, Dhananjaya de Silva, Kusal Mendis, Isuru Udana, Milinda Siriwardana, Avishka Fernando, Jeevan Mendis, Lahiru Thirimanne, Jeffrey Vandersay, Nuwan Pradeep, Suranga Lakmal.
Ahmed Raza
UAE cricket captain
Age: 31
Born: Sharjah
Role: Left-arm spinner
One-day internationals: 31 matches, 35 wickets, average 31.4, economy rate 3.95
T20 internationals: 41 matches, 29 wickets, average 30.3, economy rate 6.28
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
THE%20SWIMMERS
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ICC Awards for 2021
MEN
Cricketer of the Year – Shaheen Afridi (Pakistan)
T20 Cricketer of the Year – Mohammad Rizwan (Pakistan)
ODI Cricketer of the Year – Babar Azam (Pakistan)
Test Cricketer of the Year – Joe Root (England)
WOMEN
Cricketer of the Year – Smriti Mandhana (India)
ODI Cricketer of the Year – Lizelle Lee (South Africa)
T20 Cricketer of the Year – Tammy Beaumont (England)
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Know your cyber adversaries
Cryptojacking: Compromises a device or network to mine cryptocurrencies without an organisation's knowledge.
Distributed denial-of-service: Floods systems, servers or networks with information, effectively blocking them.
Man-in-the-middle attack: Intercepts two-way communication to obtain information, spy on participants or alter the outcome.
Malware: Installs itself in a network when a user clicks on a compromised link or email attachment.
Phishing: Aims to secure personal information, such as passwords and credit card numbers.
Ransomware: Encrypts user data, denying access and demands a payment to decrypt it.
Spyware: Collects information without the user's knowledge, which is then passed on to bad actors.
Trojans: Create a backdoor into systems, which becomes a point of entry for an attack.
Viruses: Infect applications in a system and replicate themselves as they go, just like their biological counterparts.
Worms: Send copies of themselves to other users or contacts. They don't attack the system, but they overload it.
Zero-day exploit: Exploits a vulnerability in software before a fix is found.
Analysis
Members of Syria's Alawite minority community face threat in their heartland after one of the deadliest days in country’s recent history. Read more
The Greatest Royal Rumble card as it stands
The Greatest Royal Rumble card as it stands
50-man Royal Rumble - names entered so far include Braun Strowman, Daniel Bryan, Kurt Angle, Big Show, Kane, Chris Jericho, The New Day and Elias
Universal Championship Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns in a steel cage match
WWE World Heavyweight ChampionshipAJ Styles (champion) v Shinsuke Nakamura
Intercontinental Championship Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
United States Championship Jeff Hardy (champion) v Jinder Mahal
SmackDown Tag Team Championship The Bludgeon Brothers (champions) v The Usos
Raw Tag Team Championship (currently vacant) Cesaro and Sheamus v Matt Hardy and Bray Wyatt
Casket match The Undertaker v Chris Jericho
Singles match John Cena v Triple H
Cruiserweight Championship Cedric Alexander v tba
MATCH INFO
Azerbaijan 0
Wales 2 (Moore 10', Wilson 34')
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
TO%20CATCH%20A%20KILLER
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Essentials
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct from the UAE to Geneva from Dh2,845 return, including taxes. The flight takes 6 hours.
The package
Clinique La Prairie offers a variety of programmes. A six-night Master Detox costs from 14,900 Swiss francs (Dh57,655), including all food, accommodation and a set schedule of medical consultations and spa treatments.
Europa League group stage draw
Group A: Villarreal, Maccabi Tel Aviv, Astana, Slavia Prague.
Group B: Dynamo Kiev, Young Boys, Partizan Belgrade, Skenderbeu.
Group C: Sporting Braga, Ludogorets, Hoffenheim, Istanbul Basaksehir.
Group D: AC Milan, Austria Vienna , Rijeka, AEK Athens.
Group E: Lyon, Everton, Atalanta, Apollon Limassol.
Group F: FC Copenhagen, Lokomotiv Moscow, Sheriff Tiraspol, FC Zlin.
Group G: Vitoria Plzen, Steaua Bucarest, Hapoel Beer-Sheva, FC Lugano.
Group H: Arsenal, BATE Borisov, Cologne, Red Star Belgrade.
Group I: Salzburg, Marseille, Vitoria Guimaraes, Konyaspor.
Group J: Athletic Bilbao, Hertha Berlin, Zorya Luhansk, Ostersund.
Group K: Lazio, Nice, Zulte Waregem, Vitesse Arnhem.
Group L: Zenit St Petersburg, Real Sociedad, Rosenborg, Vardar
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
