Last week, the Bank of England surprised markets with a 50 basis point rate hike, taking the bank rate to 5 per cent, rather than the 25bp that had been expected, the highest policy rate since September 2008.
Despite being the first major central bank to start raising interest rates in December 2021, the BoE has been consistently dovish in its commentary and its forward guidance to financial markets, unlike the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
As recently as May, the BoE's own forecasts showed inflation would fall “quickly” to around 5 per cent by the end of this year, and reach the 2 per cent target by the fourth quarter of 2024.
Instead, headline inflation came in higher than expected at 8.7 per cent year on year in May, well above headline inflation in the US and the eurozone.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices to provide a measure of underlying inflationary pressures, has accelerated from 5.8 per cent year on year in January to 7.1 per cent year on year in May.
In its statement after the June meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee recognised that services and core goods inflation had been stronger than expected, and attributed this to resilient demand, a tight labour market and still-strong wage growth.
Indeed, the UK economy appears to have held up relatively well given the tightening in monetary policy so far.
The gross domestic product growth was positive in Q1 and also in April, and consumer spending has strengthened slightly. Wage growth averaged 7.6 per cent year on year in the three months to April, likely supporting household spending.
The MPC also noted that the impact of rate hikes to date may take longer to feed through to consumers as there is a higher share of fixed-rate mortgages than in past hiking cycles.
While the 50bp increase last week was a surprise, markets are pricing in another 100bp in rate increases before the end of the year, which would take the policy rate to 6 per cent, and possibly another 25bp increase in Q1 2024.
The MPC statement indicated that if inflationary pressures continue to be persistent then “further tightening in monetary policy would be required”, and in a letter to the Chancellor after the meeting, Governor Bailey said that the MPC would do “what is necessary to return inflation to the 2 per cent target”.
Despite the more hawkish tone from the Governor, Emirates NBD expects only two more 25bp hikes at this stage, although the bank rate is expected to stay at 5.5 per cent until Q3 2024.
Inflation is proving harder to wring out of economies around the world, and interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer in most developed economies.
Central banks in Australia and Canada surprised markets in June by raising rates again after a break. The Fed is expected to deliver at least one more 25bp rate hike in July, and the ECB has also indicated it is not done with raising rates yet either.
The Swiss National Bank increased its policy rate by 25bp last week and indicated that more tightening would be necessary to bring inflation below 2 per cent, while Sweden’s Riksbank is expected to raise rates again this week.
Higher policy rates for an extended period of time may be necessary to bring inflation back down to target levels, but they do raise the risk of deeper and longer contractions in economies which have already gone into recession, and increase the probability of tipping those that are on the brink over the edge.
Married Malala
Malala Yousafzai is enjoying married life, her father said.
The 24-year-old married Pakistan cricket executive Asser Malik last year in a small ceremony in the UK.
Ziauddin Yousafzai told The National his daughter was ‘very happy’ with her husband.
The years Ramadan fell in May
First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
The specs: 2019 Haval H6
Price, base: Dh69,900
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
Brief scores:
Liverpool 3
Mane 24', Shaqiri 73', 80'
Manchester United 1
Lingard 33'
Man of the Match: Fabinho (Liverpool)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
How to vote
Canadians living in the UAE can register to vote online and be added to the International Register of Electors.
They'll then be sent a special ballot voting kit by mail either to their address, the Consulate General of Canada to the UAE in Dubai or The Embassy of Canada in Abu Dhabi
Registered voters mark the ballot with their choice and must send it back by 6pm Eastern time on October 21 (2am next Friday)
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
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The five pillars of Islam
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
The%20specs
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KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
The alternatives
• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.
• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.
• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.
• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.
• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases - but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.
FIXTURES
Fixtures for Round 15 (all times UAE)
Friday
Inter Milan v AS Roma (11.45pm)
Saturday
Atalanta v Verona (6pm)
Udinese v Napoli (9pm)
Lazio v Juventus (11.45pm)
Sunday
Lecce v Genoa (3.30pm)
Sassuolo v Cagliari (6pm)
SPAL v Brescia (6pm)
Torino v Fiorentina (6pm)
Sampdoria v Parma (9pm)
Bologna v AC Milan (11.45pm)
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The five pillars of Islam
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The five pillars of Islam
