“What do you think about the El Nino phenomenon?
“Umm … it’s a blip. I think basically Latin music is on its way out.”
Bridget Jones does not get the TV job she’s interviewing for in the 2001 film. But El Nino is back now, bringing extreme weather and trouble for energy systems around the globe.
From 2020 to 2022, the world was in La Nina conditions. Warm surface waters in the tropical Pacific moved west, allowing cold water to well up from deeper levels along the western coast of South America. This brings generally cooler weather, though with global warming, last year was still the fifth hottest on record.
On Thursday, the US Climate Prediction Centre officially concluded that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has flipped into its opposite, warmer phase. The eastern Pacific is now unusually hot, and the prevailing east-to-west trade winds are blowing the other way. The 1997 to 1998 El Nino was especially intense, as was that of 2016, while 2019’s repeat was weak.
Forecasters are suggesting this El Nino may be stronger than average – meaning 2024 is set to be a hot year.
Climate change may make El Nino more frequent and intense, but the link is not certain. What is clear is that the generally hotter conditions during El Nino, on top of global warming, mean new temperature extremes are likely.
Average global temperatures are already 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels, and El Nino could add 0.2°C to that, bringing us very close to breaching the 1.5°C limit that 2015’s Paris Agreement aims for.
The World Meteorological Association sees a two-in-three chance that this target will be exceeded in at least one of the next five years – a temporary setback but an ominous one.
Both phases of ENSO change weather patterns globally, via teleconnections with remote regions.
During El Nino, the Sahel, southern Africa, Australia and South-East Asia, India and northern South America are likely to be drier and hotter. Europe, the southern US and eastern China may be wetter. But beyond the tropical Pacific, El Nino is not the only major atmospheric and oceanic phenomenon. There are oscillations within the Indian Ocean, the Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean that may reinforce or offset it.
The chaotic weather of the last two years has strained energy systems.
Drought in Latin America, drying up hydroelectric dams, and low wind in Europe set the stage for the high gas prices of late 2021. The blistering pre-monsoon heatwave of 2022 in India and Pakistan caused the worst electricity shortages for six years, as air-conditioning use soared while coal stocks ran short.
Europe’s hot summer then saw river levels fall, forcing French nuclear plants to shut down as they lacked cooling water, and making it hard to move coal by barge, further stressing the continent’s electricity.
But the European winter was fairly warm though dry, cutting the demand for gas for heating and helping the continent cope with the cut-off of most Russian gas supplies.
The higher temperatures of El Nino will give a preview of our permanently hotter world a decade or two in the future.
South-East Asia baked in a heatwave this May and June that saw Thailand and Vietnam break their all-time temperature records, hitting 45.4°C and 44.2°C, respectively.
Shanghai has recorded its hottest May in more than 150 years. Outdoor workers risk dehydration and heat stroke, while most people in poorer countries such as Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar don’t have access to air conditioning.
The skies of New York, Toronto and Calgary recently turned orange under choking smoke from three massive sets of Canadian wildfires.
Climate disasters do not respect borders. Droughts and hot weather expose forests to such blazes, which also struck California, Greece, Algeria and Australia in recent years. The pollution left a legacy of respiratory disease among children.
If we do not build it wisely, the future energy system will be more vulnerable than today’s to extreme weather. Wind, solar, nuclear and biofuel cultivation are all likely to be major parts of a low-carbon future, and are affected by outdoor conditions. Areas affected by the North American wildfires have seen solar output drop by half.
Green hydrogen, made with renewable electricity, would be affected in turn. Hydropower is crucial for balancing variable renewables, but is increasingly unreliable. The dream of many environmentalists, a system where cars, heating, cooling, desalination and industries are fully electrified, can be disrupted by any grid failure.
El Nino probably means a quieter Atlantic hurricane season. But these powerful storms are more intense in a warming world, and can shut down offshore wind farms as well as oil and gas platforms.
Many facilities for energy production, export and use are located along coastlines, where they can be damaged by storm surges made more dangerous by rising sea levels. High rainfall and melting snow flood mines, including those for critical future minerals such as copper.
Electricity transmission lines can be threatened by wildfires – or have to be turned off to avoid sparking them.
California’s utility PG&E filed for bankruptcy in 2019 after racking up $30 billion of liabilities for blazes caused by its cables. Long heatwaves drive up electricity consumption, including in regions that have historically not used much air conditioning either because of lower incomes or milder summers.
If indeed this El Nino is particularly strong, the world needs to be prepared.
The system is particularly perilously balanced today, because of years of underinvestment, the shock of the Russia-Ukraine war and the loss of most Russian gas, and the patchy and inchoate nature of the energy transition. Europe may think it is out of the woods, but a baking hot, dry summer followed by an Arctic winter there or in China could burn up surplus gas stocks.
And in the longer term, the energy complex needs to be robust and diverse, both between sources and geographies. We need energy connections between regions to spread risk, but also local self sufficiency to avoid chains of failure.
El Ninos will come and go, but an ever-hotter world is with us for decades.
Robin M. Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of 'The Myth of the Oil Crisis'
Royal wedding inspired menu
Ginger, citrus and orange blossom iced tea
Avocado ranch dip with crudites
Cucumber, smoked salmon and cream cheese mini club sandwiches
Elderflower and lemon syllabub meringue
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
South Africa World Cup squad
South Africa: Faf du Plessis (c), Hashim Amla, Quinton de Kock (w), JP Duminy, Imran Tahir, Aiden Markram, David Miller, Lungi Ngidi, Anrich Nortje, Andile Phehlukwayo, Dwaine Pretorius, Kagiso Rabada, Tabraiz Shamsi, Dale Steyn, Rassie van der Dussen.
Chatham House Rule
A mark of Chatham House’s influence 100 years on since its founding, was Moscow’s formal declaration last month that it was an “undesirable
organisation”.
The depth of knowledge and academics that it drew on
following the Ukraine invasion had broadcast Mr Putin’s chicanery.
The institute is more used to accommodating world leaders,
with Nelson Mandela, Margaret Thatcher among those helping it provide
authoritative commentary on world events.
Chatham House was formally founded as the Royal Institute of
International Affairs following the peace conferences of World War One. Its
founder, Lionel Curtis, wanted a more scientific examination of international affairs
with a transparent exchange of information and ideas.
That arena of debate and analysis was enhanced by the “Chatham
House Rule” states that the contents of any meeting can be discussed outside Chatham
House but no mention can be made identifying individuals who commented.
This has enabled some candid exchanges on difficult subjects
allowing a greater degree of free speech from high-ranking figures.
These meetings are highly valued, so much so that
ambassadors reported them in secret diplomatic cables that – when they were
revealed in the Wikileaks reporting – were thus found to have broken the rule. However,
most speeches are held on the record.
Its research and debate has offered fresh ideas to
policymakers enabling them to more coherently address troubling issues from climate
change to health and food security.
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Should late investors consider cryptocurrencies?
Wealth managers recommend late investors to have a balanced portfolio that typically includes traditional assets such as cash, government and corporate bonds, equities, commodities and commercial property.
They do not usually recommend investing in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies due to the risk and volatility associated with them.
“It has produced eye-watering returns for some, whereas others have lost substantially as this has all depended purely on timing and when the buy-in was. If someone still has about 20 to 25 years until retirement, there isn’t any need to take such risks,” Rupert Connor of Abacus Financial Consultant says.
He adds that if a person is interested in owning a business or growing a property portfolio to increase their retirement income, this can be encouraged provided they keep in mind the overall risk profile of these assets.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The%20specs%3A%202024%20Mercedes%20E200
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%20four-cyl%20turbo%20%2B%20mild%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E204hp%20at%205%2C800rpm%20%2B23hp%20hybrid%20boost%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E320Nm%20at%201%2C800rpm%20%2B205Nm%20hybrid%20boost%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E9-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7.3L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENovember%2FDecember%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh205%2C000%20(estimate)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Farasan Boat: 128km Away from Anchorage
Director: Mowaffaq Alobaid
Stars: Abdulaziz Almadhi, Mohammed Al Akkasi, Ali Al Suhaibani
Rating: 4/5
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Race%20card
%3Cp%3E6pm%3A%20Al%20Maktoum%20Challenge%20Round%201%20%E2%80%93%20Group%201%20(PA)%20%2450%2C000%20(Dirt)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3E6.35pm%3A%20Dubai%20Racing%20Club%20Classic%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20%24100%2C000%20(D)%202%2C410m%3Cbr%3E7.10pm%3A%20Dubawi%20Stakes%20%E2%80%93%20Group%203%20(TB)%20%24150%2C000%20(D)%201%2C200m%3Cbr%3E7.45pm%3A%20Jumeirah%20Classic%20Trial%20%E2%80%93%20Conditions%20(TB)%20%24150%2C000%20(Turf)%201%2C400m%3Cbr%3E8.20pm%3A%20Al%20Maktoum%20Challenge%20Round%201%20%E2%80%93%20Group%202%20(TB)%20%24250%2C000%20(D)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3E8.55pm%3A%20Al%20Fahidi%20Fort%20%E2%80%93%20Group%202%20(TB)%20%24180%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%3Cbr%3E9.30pm%3A%20Ertijaal%20Dubai%20Dash%20%E2%80%93%20Listed%20(TB)%20%24100%2C000%20(T)%201%2C000m%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
MATCH INFO
BRIGHTON 0
MANCHESTER UNITED 3
McTominay 44'
Mata 73'
Pogba 80'
Destroyer
Director: Karyn Kusama
Cast: Nicole Kidman, Toby Kebbell, Sebastian Stan
Rating: 3/5
UAE release: January 31
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
THE%20JERSEYS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERed%20Jersey%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EGeneral%20Classification%2C%20sponsored%20by%20Fatima%20bint%20Mubarak%20Ladies%20Academy%3A%20Worn%20daily%2C%20starting%20from%20Stage%202%2C%20by%20the%20leader%20of%20the%20General%20Classification.%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EGreen%20Jersey%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EPoints%20Classification%2C%20sponsored%20by%20Bike%20Abu%20Dhabi%3A%20Worn%20daily%2C%20starting%20from%20Stage%202%2C%20by%20the%20fastest%20sprinter.%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWhite%20Jersey%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EYoung%20Rider%20Classification%2C%20sponsored%20by%20Abu%20Dhabi%20360%3A%20Worn%20daily%2C%20starting%20from%20Stage%202%2C%20by%20the%20best%20young%20rider%20(U25).%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBlack%20Jersey%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EIntermediate%20Sprint%20Classification%2C%20sponsored%20by%20Experience%20Abu%20Dhabi%3A%20Worn%20daily%2C%20starting%20from%20Stage%202%2C%20by%20the%20rider%20who%20has%20gained%20most%20Intermediate%20sprint%20points.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETerra%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hussam%20Zammar%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Mobility%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Pre-seed%20funding%20of%20%241%20million%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E6.5-litre%20V12%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E725hp%20at%207%2C750rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E716Nm%20at%206%2C250rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EQ4%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh1%2C650%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Score
Third Test, Day 2
New Zealand 274
Pakistan 139-3 (61 ov)
Pakistan trail by 135 runs with 7 wickets remaining in the innings
The Gandhi Murder
- 71 - Years since the death of MK Gandhi, also christened India's Father of the Nation
- 34 - Nationalities featured in the film The Gandhi Murder
- 7 - million dollars, the film's budget
Bib%20Gourmand%20restaurants
%3Cp%3EAl%20Khayma%0D%3Cbr%3EBait%20Maryam%0D%3Cbr%3EBrasserie%20Boulud%0D%3Cbr%3EFi'lia%0D%3Cbr%3Efolly%0D%3Cbr%3EGoldfish%0D%3Cbr%3EIbn%20AlBahr%0D%3Cbr%3EIndya%20by%20Vineet%0D%3Cbr%3EKinoya%0D%3Cbr%3ENinive%0D%3Cbr%3EOrfali%20Bros%0D%3Cbr%3EReif%20Japanese%20Kushiyaki%0D%3Cbr%3EShabestan%0D%3Cbr%3ETeible%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Avengers: Endgame
Directors: Anthony Russo, Joe Russo
Starring: Robert Downey Jr, Chris Evans, Scarlett Johansson, Chris Hemsworth, Josh Brolin
4/5 stars
Five expert hiking tips
Always check the weather forecast before setting off
Make sure you have plenty of water
Set off early to avoid sudden weather changes in the afternoon
Wear appropriate clothing and footwear
Take your litter home with you
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
THE SPECS
Engine: AMG-enhanced 3.0L inline-6 turbo with EQ Boost and electric auxiliary compressor
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 429hp
Torque: 520Nm
Price: Dh360,200 (starting)
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3EName%3A%20Tabby%3Cbr%3EFounded%3A%20August%202019%3B%20platform%20went%20live%20in%20February%202020%3Cbr%3EFounder%2FCEO%3A%20Hosam%20Arab%2C%20co-founder%3A%20Daniil%20Barkalov%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20Payments%3Cbr%3ESize%3A%2040-50%20employees%3Cbr%3EStage%3A%20Series%20A%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Arbor%20Ventures%2C%20Mubadala%20Capital%2C%20Wamda%20Capital%2C%20STV%2C%20Raed%20Ventures%2C%20Global%20Founders%20Capital%2C%20JIMCO%2C%20Global%20Ventures%2C%20Venture%20Souq%2C%20Outliers%20VC%2C%20MSA%20Capital%2C%20HOF%20and%20AB%20Accelerator.%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
Fixture: Thailand v UAE, Tuesday, 4pm (UAE)
TV: Abu Dhabi Sports
%3Cp%3EThe%20Department%20of%20Culture%20and%20Tourism%20-%20Abu%20Dhabi%E2%80%99s%20Arabic%20Language%20Centre%20will%20mark%20International%20Women%E2%80%99s%20Day%20at%20the%20Bologna%20Children's%20Book%20Fair%20with%20the%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Translation%20Conference.%20Prolific%20Emirati%20author%20Noora%20Al%20Shammari%2C%20who%20has%20written%20eight%20books%20that%20%20feature%20in%20the%20Ministry%20of%20Education's%20curriculum%2C%20will%20appear%20in%20a%20session%20on%20Wednesday%20to%20discuss%20the%20challenges%20women%20face%20in%20getting%20their%20works%20translated.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
PETER%20PAN%20%26%20WENDY
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDavid%20Lowery%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Alexander%20Molony%2C%20Ever%20Anderson%2C%20Joshua%20Pickering%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Racecard
7pm: Abu Dhabi - Conditions (PA) Dh 80,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.30pm: Dubai - Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,400m
8pm: Sharjah - Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,600m
8.30pm: Ajman - Handicap (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 2,200m
9pm: Umm Al Quwain - The Entisar - Listed (TB) Dh132,500 (D) 2,000m
9.30pm: Ras Al Khaimah - Rated Conditions (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,600m
10pm: Fujairah - Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,200m
Tips%20for%20holiday%20homeowners
%3Cp%3EThere%20are%20several%20factors%20for%20landlords%20to%20consider%20when%20preparing%20to%20establish%20a%20holiday%20home%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3ERevenue%20potential%20of%20the%20unit%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20location%2C%20view%20and%20size%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EDesign%3A%20furnished%20or%20unfurnished.%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Is%20the%20design%20up%20to%20standard%2C%20while%20being%20catchy%20at%20the%20same%20time%3F%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EBusiness%20model%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20will%20it%20be%20managed%20by%20a%20professional%20operator%20or%20directly%20by%20the%20owner%2C%20how%20often%20does%20the%20owner%20wants%20to%20use%20it%20for%20personal%20reasons%3F%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EQuality%20of%20the%20operator%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20guest%20reviews%2C%20customer%20experience%20management%2C%20application%20of%20technology%2C%20average%20utilisation%2C%20scope%20of%20services%20rendered%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%20Adam%20Nowak%2C%20managing%20director%20of%20Ultimate%20Stay%20Vacation%20Homes%20Rental%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Isle of Dogs
Director: Wes Anderson
Starring: Bryan Cranston, Liev Schreiber, Ed Norton, Greta Gerwig, Bill Murray, Jeff Goldblum, Scarlett Johansson
Three stars
Museum of the Future in numbers
- 78 metres is the height of the museum
- 30,000 square metres is its total area
- 17,000 square metres is the length of the stainless steel facade
- 14 kilometres is the length of LED lights used on the facade
- 1,024 individual pieces make up the exterior
- 7 floors in all, with one for administrative offices
- 2,400 diagonally intersecting steel members frame the torus shape
- 100 species of trees and plants dot the gardens
- Dh145 is the price of a ticket
Central%20Bank's%20push%20for%20a%20robust%20financial%20infrastructure
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3ECBDC%20real-value%20pilot%20held%20with%20three%20partner%20institutions%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EPreparing%20buy%20now%2C%20pay%20later%20regulations%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EPreparing%20for%20the%202023%20launch%20of%20the%20domestic%20card%20initiative%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EPhase%20one%20of%20the%20Financial%20Infrastructure%20Transformation%20(FiT)%20completed%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
