Developed market central banks pushed ahead with rate increases last week, despite the increasing pressure on regional US lenders.
Both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank pointed to still high inflation and tight labour markets as justification for further monetary policy tightening, raising rates by 25 basis points to 5.25 per cent and 3.25 per cent, respectively.
The Federal Open Market Committee signalled a pause in its post-meeting statement, although chairman Jerome Powell indicated that rates could rise further if economic data signalled that additional tightening was warranted.
Meanwhile, the ECB indicated that more rate increases are likely in the coming months.
The market is pricing two more 25 basis point increases from the ECB this year to 3.75 per cent, but believes that US rates have peaked.
Indeed, Fed funds futures are pricing in three 25 basis point cuts before the end of the year.
The reason for the market’s dovish rate outlook is the increasing pressure on mid-sized US banks over the past couple of weeks, amid fears that it will spread and contribute to significant tightening in financial conditions - and push the US economy into a steep recession.
Concerns about a potential US debt default if Congress doesn’t agree to raise the debt ceiling may also be contributing to the gloomy outlook.
US banks have come under renewed pressure over the past week, leading to the acquisition of First Republic Bank by JP Morgan in a deal arranged by regulators.
The S&P regional banks index has declined about 10 per cent in May and is down 38 per cent since the beginning of March, as investors fret over the impact of rising interest rates on smaller banks’ balance sheets.
Small and medium-sized banks account for about 40 per cent of all lending in the US. While larger companies can access equity and debt capital markets to raise financing, smaller businesses rely on bank lending to fund expansion and working capital requirements.
Regional banks also play a key role in real estate lending in the US, accounting for almost 70 per cent of commercial real estate loans.
When these regional banks struggle to raise liquidity and are faced with losses on their portfolios, they are likely to cut back on lending to customers and also raise the cost of the loans they do make.
This has a direct impact on the cost and availability of loans to a large chunk of the consumer, corporate and real estate sectors, reducing demand and weighing on consumer spending and private sector investment.
This additional tightening in credit conditions is over and above what was caused by the Fed’s rate increases and is difficult to measure. Some analysts have indicated that the tightening of bank lending standards may be equivalent to as many as two or three 25 basis point rate raises.
Against this uncertainty, it is unsurprising that the Fed has now shifted to a more wait-and-see approach before deciding on its next move.
If a sharp contraction in the availability of credit leads to more widespread job losses and a faster decline in US inflation, then the Fed may be able to ease monetary policy sooner rather than later.
However, the data doesn’t suggest this is the most likely outcome.
While US economic growth has slowed in the first quarter of this year and headline inflation has eased, core inflation remained uncomfortably high at 5.6 per cent annually in March.
Moreover, the labour market remains very tight and wage growth is still well above what the Fed would be comfortable with. Job growth in April was faster than expected, the unemployment rate fell back to 3.4 per cent and average hourly earnings growth accelerated to 4.4 per cent year on year.
For now, at least, we think the more likely scenario is one where the Fed keeps rates on hold for an extended period, rather than easing monetary policy too quickly and risking a resurgence in price pressures.
There are other tools that the central bank and regulators can use to support the smaller banks facing stress and rate cuts are unlikely to be deployed unless the problems become more widespread and systemic.
Khatija Haque is chief economist and head of research at Emirates NBD
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE results
Lost to Oman by eight runs
Beat Namibia by three wickets
Lost to Oman by 12 runs
Beat Namibia by 43 runs
UAE fixtures
Free admission. All fixtures broadcast live on icc.tv
Tuesday March 15, v PNG at Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Friday March 18, v Nepal at Dubai International Stadium
Saturday March 19, v PNG at Dubai International Stadium
Monday March 21, v Nepal at Dubai International Stadium
Results
6.30pm Madjani Stakes Rated Conditions (PA) I Dh160,000 I 1,900m I Winner: Mawahib, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer)
7.05pm Maiden Dh150,000 I 1,400m I Winner One Season, Antonio Fresu, Satish Seemar
7.40pm: Maiden Dh150,000 I 2,000m I Winner Street Of Dreams, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
8.15pm Dubai Creek Listed I Dh250,000 I 1,600m I Winner Heavy Metal, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
8.50pm The Entisar Listed I Dh250,000 I 2,000m I Winner Etijaah, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson
9.25pm The Garhoud Listed I Dh250,000 I 1,200m I Winner Muarrab, Dane O’Neill, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
10pm Handicap I Dh160,000 I 1,600m I Winner Sea Skimmer, Patrick Cosgrave, Helal Al Alawi
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Biog
Mr Kandhari is legally authorised to conduct marriages in the gurdwara
He has officiated weddings of Sikhs and people of different faiths from Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Russia, the US and Canada
Father of two sons, grandfather of six
Plays golf once a week
Enjoys trying new holiday destinations with his wife and family
Walks for an hour every morning
Completed a Bachelor of Commerce degree in Loyola College, Chennai, India
2019 is a milestone because he completes 50 years in business
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
Kalra's feat
- Becomes fifth batsman to score century in U19 final
- Becomes second Indian to score century in U19 final after Unmukt Chand in 2012
- Scored 122 in youth Test on tour of England
- Bought by Delhi Daredevils for base price of two million Indian rupees (Dh115,000) in 2018 IPL auction
New process leads to panic among jobseekers
As a UAE-based travel agent who processes tourist visas from the Philippines, Jennifer Pacia Gado is fielding a lot of calls from concerned travellers just now. And they are all asking the same question.
“My clients are mostly Filipinos, and they [all want to know] about good conduct certificates,” says the 34-year-old Filipina, who has lived in the UAE for five years.
Ms Gado contacted the Philippines Embassy to get more information on the certificate so she can share it with her clients. She says many are worried about the process and associated costs – which could be as high as Dh500 to obtain and attest a good conduct certificate from the Philippines for jobseekers already living in the UAE.
“They are worried about this because when they arrive here without the NBI [National Bureau of Investigation] clearance, it is a hassle because it takes time,” she says.
“They need to go first to the embassy to apply for the application of the NBI clearance. After that they have go to the police station [in the UAE] for the fingerprints. And then they will apply for the special power of attorney so that someone can finish the process in the Philippines. So it is a long process and more expensive if you are doing it from here.”
Six things you need to know about UAE Women’s Special Olympics football team
Several girls started playing football at age four
They describe sport as their passion
The girls don’t dwell on their condition
They just say they may need to work a little harder than others
When not in training, they play football with their brothers and sisters
The girls want to inspire others to join the UAE Special Olympics teams
Coal Black Mornings
Brett Anderson
Little Brown Book Group
Five films to watch
Castle in the Sky (1986)
Grave of the Fireflies (1988)
Only Yesterday (1991)
Pom Poki (1994)
The Tale of Princess Kaguya (2013)
Manchester City (0) v Liverpool (3)
Uefa Champions League, quarter-final, second leg
Where: Etihad Stadium
When: Tuesday, 10.45pm
Live on beIN Sports HD
Isle of Dogs
Director: Wes Anderson
Starring: Bryan Cranston, Liev Schreiber, Ed Norton, Greta Gerwig, Bill Murray, Jeff Goldblum, Scarlett Johansson
Three stars
Sting & Shaggy
44/876
(Interscope)
Brief scores:
Scotland 371-5, 50 overs (C MacLeod 140 no, K Coetzer 58, G Munsey 55)
England 365 all out, 48.5 overs (J Bairstow 105, A Hales 52; M Watt 3-55)
Result: Scotland won by six runs
FIXTURES
New Zealand v France, second Test
Saturday, 12.35pm (UAE)
Auckland, New Zealand
South Africa v Wales
Sunday, 12.40am (UAE), San Juan, Argentina
Dhadak
Director: Shashank Khaitan
Starring: Janhvi Kapoor, Ishaan Khattar, Ashutosh Rana
Stars: 3
Blonde
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAndrew%20Dominik%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAna%20de%20Armas%2C%20Adrien%20Brody%2C%20Bobby%20Cannavale%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Getting%20there%20and%20where%20to%20stay
%3Cp%3EFly%20with%20Etihad%20Airways%20from%20Abu%20Dhabi%20to%20New%20York%E2%80%99s%20JFK.%20There's%2011%20flights%20a%20week%20and%20economy%20fares%20start%20at%20around%20Dh5%2C000.%3Cbr%3EStay%20at%20The%20Mark%20Hotel%20on%20the%20city%E2%80%99s%20Upper%20East%20Side.%20Overnight%20stays%20start%20from%20%241395%20per%20night.%3Cbr%3EVisit%20NYC%20Go%2C%20the%20official%20destination%20resource%20for%20New%20York%20City%20for%20all%20the%20latest%20events%2C%20activites%20and%20openings.%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%20US%20Congress%2C%20explained
%3Cp%3E-%20US%20Congress%20is%20divided%20into%20two%20chambers%3A%20the%20House%20of%20Representatives%20and%20Senate%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20435%20members%20make%20up%20the%20House%2C%20and%20100%20in%20the%20Senate%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20A%20party%20needs%20control%20of%20218%20seats%20to%20have%20a%20majority%20in%20the%20House%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20In%20the%20Senate%2C%20a%20party%20needs%20to%20hold%2051%20seats%20for%20control%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20In%20the%20event%20of%20a%2050-50%20split%2C%20the%20vice%20president's%20party%20retains%20power%20in%20the%20Senate%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETwig%20Solutions%20(with%20trade%20name%20Twig)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EChafic%20Idriss%2C%20Karam%20El%20Dik%20and%20Rayan%20Antonios%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EUAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Ebootstrapped%20(undisclosed)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E13%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Epre-seed%20%E2%80%94%20closing%20the%20round%20as%20we%20speak%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20senior%20executives%20from%20the%20GCC%20financial%20services%20industry%20and%20global%20family%20offices%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What is graphene?
Graphene is extracted from graphite and is made up of pure carbon.
It is 200 times more resistant than steel and five times lighter than aluminum.
It conducts electricity better than any other material at room temperature.
It is thought that graphene could boost the useful life of batteries by 10 per cent.
Graphene can also detect cancer cells in the early stages of the disease.
The material was first discovered when Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov were 'playing' with graphite at the University of Manchester in 2004.
DAY%20ONE%20RESULT
%3Cp%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Charlotte%20Kool%20(NED)%20%E2%80%93%20Team%20DSM%3A%202hrs%2C%2047min%2C%2014sec%3Cbr%3E2.%20Lorena%20Wiebes%20(NED)%20%E2%80%93%20Team%20SD%20Worx%3A%20%2B4%20secs%3Cbr%3E3.%20Chiara%20Consonni%20(ITA)%20%E2%80%93%20UAE%20Team%20ADQ%3A%20%2B5%20secs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Victims%20of%20the%202018%20Parkland%20school%20shooting
%3Cp%3EAlyssa%20Alhadeff%2C%2014%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EScott%20Beigel%2C%2035%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EMartin%20Duque%2C%2014%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ENicholas%20Dworet%2C%2017%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAaron%20Feis%2C%2037%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EJaime%20Guttenberg%2C%2014%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EChris%20Hixon%2C%2049%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ELuke%20Hoyer%2C%2015%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ECara%20Loughran%2C%2014%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EGina%20Montalto%2C%2014%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EJoaquin%20Oliver%2C%2017%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAlaina%20Petty%2C%2014%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EMeadow%20Pollack%2C%2018%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EHelena%20Ramsay%2C%2017%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAlex%20Schachter%2C%2014%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ECarmen%20Schentrup%2C%2016%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPeter%20Wang%2C%2015%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ant-Man%20and%20the%20Wasp%3A%20Quantumania
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPeyton%20Reed%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Paul%20Rudd%2C%20Evangeline%20Lilly%2C%20Jonathan%20Majors%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Results
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStage%207%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Adam%20Yates%20(GBR)%20UAE%20Team%20Emirates%20%E2%80%93%203hrs%2029min%2042ses%3Cbr%3E2.%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%20%E2%80%93%2010sec%3Cbr%3E3.%20Geoffrey%20Bouchard%20(FRA)%20AG2R%20Citroen%20Team%20%E2%80%93%2042sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EGeneral%20Classification%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3E2.%20Lucas%20Plapp%20(AUS)%20Ineos%20Grenaders%20%E2%80%93%2059se%3Cbr%3E3.%20Adam%20Yates%20(GBR)%20UAE%20Team%20Emirates%20%E2%80%9360sec%3Cbr%3ERed%20Jersey%20(General%20Classification)%3A%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3EGreen%20Jersey%20(Points%20Classification)%3A%20Tim%20Merlier%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3EWhite%20Jersey%20(Young%20Rider%20Classification)%3A%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3EBlack%20Jersey%20(Intermediate%20Sprint%20Classification)%3A%20Edward%20Planckaert%20(FRA)%20Alpecin-Deceuninck%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RESULTS
%3Cp%3E%0D5pm%3A%20Al%20Maha%20Stables%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(Turf)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20AF%20Alfahem%2C%20Tadhg%20O%E2%80%99Shea%20(jockey)%2C%20Ernst%20Oetrel%20(trainer)%0D%3Cbr%3E5.30pm%3A%20Al%20Anoud%20Stables%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20AF%20Musannef%2C%20Tadhg%20O%E2%80%99Shea%2C%20Ernst%20Oertel%0D%3Cbr%3E6pm%3A%20Wathba%20Stallions%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh70%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20AF%20Rasam%2C%20Tadhg%20O%E2%80%99Shea%2C%20Ernst%20Oertel%0D%3Cbr%3E6.30pm%3A%20Arabian%20Triple%20Crown%20Round%202%20%E2%80%93%20Group%203%20(PA)%20Dh%20300%2C000%20(T)%202%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Joe%20Star%2C%20Tadhg%20O%E2%80%99Shea%2C%20Helal%20Al%20Alawi%0D%3Cbr%3E7pm%3A%20Liwa%20Oasis%20%E2%80%93%20Group%202%20(PA)%20Dh300%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20AF%20Alajaj%2C%20Tadhg%20O%E2%80%99Shea%2C%20Ernst%20Oertel%0D%3Cbr%3E7.30pm%3A%20Dames%20Stables%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Silent%20Defense%2C%20Oscar%20Chavez%2C%20Rashed%20Bouresly%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
%3Cp%3EThe%20Department%20of%20Culture%20and%20Tourism%20-%20Abu%20Dhabi%E2%80%99s%20Arabic%20Language%20Centre%20will%20mark%20International%20Women%E2%80%99s%20Day%20at%20the%20Bologna%20Children's%20Book%20Fair%20with%20the%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Translation%20Conference.%20Prolific%20Emirati%20author%20Noora%20Al%20Shammari%2C%20who%20has%20written%20eight%20books%20that%20%20feature%20in%20the%20Ministry%20of%20Education's%20curriculum%2C%20will%20appear%20in%20a%20session%20on%20Wednesday%20to%20discuss%20the%20challenges%20women%20face%20in%20getting%20their%20works%20translated.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tu%20Jhoothi%20Main%20Makkaar%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELuv%20Ranjan%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERanbir%20Kapoor%2C%20Shraddha%20Kapoor%2C%20Anubhav%20Singh%20Bassi%20and%20Dimple%20Kapadia%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
INDIA%20SQUAD
%3Cp%3ERohit%20Sharma%20(capt)%2C%20Shubman%20Gill%2C%20Cheteshwar%20Pujara%2C%20Virat%20Kohli%2C%20Ajinkya%20Rahane%2C%20KL%20Rahul%2C%20KS%20Bharat%20(wk)%2C%20Ravichandran%20Ashwin%2C%20Ravindra%20Jadeja%2C%20Axar%20Patel%2C%20Shardul%20Thakur%2C%20Mohammed%20Shami%2C%20Mohammed%20Siraj%2C%20Umesh%20Yadav%2C%20Jaydev%20Unadkat%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
