The modern energy transition grew up in an era of easy money, near-zero interest rates and low inflation. Venture capitalists, project developers and governments contend today with a very different situation. Can they keep up the momentum on decarbonisation when investors expect something for their cash?
Between January 2009 and November 2015, the US federal funds effective rate did not exceed 0.2 per cent — quite a change from the early 1980s, when it reached about one hundred times that level. That climbed to a still moderate 2.4 per cent in 2019, then fell back to near-zero in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
The European Central Bank's (ECB) fixed rate was even lower, and actually zero between March 2016 and July 2022.
Now, in a quick march of rates rises, the US Fed rate has reached 4.65 per cent and the ECB 3 per cent. Short-term rates are seen peaking at about 5.1 per cent while falling back longer-term to about 3.6 per cent.
This is in response to the need to choke off inflation before it becomes embedded. US prices began accelerating in early 2021 with the Covid-related stimulus, hit a peak of 9.1 per cent in June and have since fallen back to 6 per cent.
European inflation has been even higher, because of the surge in gas and electricity costs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and reached an all-time eurozone record of 10.6 per cent in October.
Energy itself drives some of the problem. High oil and gas prices contributed to the jump in inflation in 2021 and 2022. In the longer term, decarbonisation will require heavy investment, often fuelled by government deficit spending, and throwing away much still-productive capital locked up in fossil-fuel assets.
The 2050 net-zero carbon target will require doubling the current annual energy investment to $173 trillion, according to strategic research provider BloombergNEF.
That is something like a quarter of what we currently invest worldwide across the entire economy.
Economic protectionism is particularly in evidence in energy, as the US with its perhaps misleadingly named “Inflation Reduction Act”, the EU and the UK aim to outcompete China in areas such as batteries and electric vehicles.
They are concerned about over-dependence on China and Russia for critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare earths.
China has been the key driver of falling manufacturing costs for renewable energy systems over the past decade. A complex welter of tariffs and “buy local” preferences will end such frictionless trade.
Carbon prices are an essential and more efficient economic tool, yet still add to the end-user cost of energy. Producing “green” steel, aluminium, cement and plastics using renewable electricity and hydrogen filters through to the costs of building things.
This applies not least to new energy systems, which require large quantities of materials. Low-carbon shipping fuels will lead to higher costs for delivered goods.
Eventually, these alternatives will improve to the extent they are superior to and cheaper than fossil fuels, but the transition period can be painful.
But a higher cost of capital and tighter money make it harder to deliver that transition.
Most of the key low-carbon technologies have higher upfront capital costs than the fossil alternative, but lower operating costs. A wind or solar farm, once constructed, requires only minimal maintenance and no fuel input to churn out electricity for two or three decades. An electric car is cheap to charge and, with fewer moving parts, less prone to breakdowns. This means that higher interest rates put them at a relative disadvantage.
The very low costs of delivered solar power in recent years, particularly in the Middle East, were facilitated by cheap capital. Supply chain issues mean that panels have become at least temporarily more expensive. Our calculations at Qamar Energy suggest that a solar farm delivered for 1.5 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2021 would see its cost rise to 2 cents because of higher equipment bills, then to almost 3 cents due to the greater cost of capital.
This is still very cheap by historic standards, and better than fossil alternatives, but higher than the industry had become accustomed to and on which net-zero carbon plans had been based.
The move up from near-zero interest rates also affects venture capital. Money in recent years poured into energy start-ups and growth companies: in electric vehicles, not just Tesla, but also Rivian, Lucid Motors and fraud-hit lorry maker Nikola Motor. Even without profits, revenues or a working model, they were valued in the tens or hundreds of billions, more than Ford or GM.
This was an attempt, of course, to emulate the success of early investors in stocks such as Alphabet and Meta. The energy tech space is much less forgiving: capital-intensive, long development and deployment cycles, heavy government regulation, and safety and environment imperatives. “Move fast and break things” is not an appealing motto for an electric plane.
The world still needs these breakthrough technologies, in areas such as atmospheric carbon dioxide removal, space solar, nuclear fusion and advanced fission, alternative batteries to lithium-ion, engineered geothermal, novel electrolysers and many others.
The question is how to keep venture capitalists interested when interest rates are well above zero and payoff comes — if it comes — after a decade or two.
The outlook for inflation and interest rates is critical: will demographics, maturing economies and cheaper low-carbon energy push rates down again, or will activist governments, deficit spending, a decarbonisation splurge and the end of the deflationary “China shock” keep them elevated?
Geopolitical imperatives aside, de-globalisation or “slowbalisation” indicates economic stagnation with higher inflation, hampering the energy transition.
Bureaucratic procedures and excessive deference to special interests reduce the deployment of major new infrastructure to a crawl, magnifying the impact of more costly capital.
Governments need to imaginatively bring money into long-term breakthroughs, but also accelerate their journey to reality.
After economic shocks, pandemic and war, we need to reconcile the end of near-zero with the start of net-zero.
Robin Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of 'The Myth of the Oil Crisis'
Crops that could be introduced to the UAE
1: Quinoa
2. Bathua
3. Amaranth
4. Pearl and finger millet
5. Sorghum
More on animal trafficking
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final:
First leg: Liverpool 5 Roma 2
Second leg: Wednesday, May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome
TV: BeIN Sports, 10.45pm (UAE)
Company%20profile
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What is type-1 diabetes
Type 1 diabetes is a genetic and unavoidable condition, rather than the lifestyle-related type 2 diabetes.
It occurs mostly in people under 40 and a result of the pancreas failing to produce enough insulin to regulate blood sugars.
Too much or too little blood sugar can result in an attack where sufferers lose consciousness in serious cases.
Being overweight or obese increases the chances of developing the more common type 2 diabetes.
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
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FROM%20THE%20ASHES
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Empire of Enchantment: The Story of Indian Magic
John Zubrzycki, Hurst Publishers
Squid Game season two
Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5
The%20Caine%20Mutiny%20Court-Martial%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EWilliam%20Friedkin%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKiefer%20Sutherland%2C%20Jason%20Clarke%2C%20Jake%20Lacy%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 2 (Heaton (og) 42', Lindelof 64')
Aston Villa 2 (Grealish 11', Mings 66')
The%20specs
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
THREE
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THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.
The biog
Name: James Mullan
Nationality: Irish
Family: Wife, Pom; and daughters Kate, 18, and Ciara, 13, who attend Jumeirah English Speaking School (JESS)
Favourite book or author: “That’s a really difficult question. I’m a big fan of Donna Tartt, The Secret History. I’d recommend that, go and have a read of that.”
Dream: “It would be to continue to have fun and to work with really interesting people, which I have been very fortunate to do for a lot of my life. I just enjoy working with very smart, fun people.”
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MATCH INFO
Iceland 0 England 1 (Sterling pen 90 1)
Man of the match Kari Arnason (Iceland)
Porsche Taycan Turbo specs
Engine: Two permanent-magnet synchronous AC motors
Transmission: two-speed
Power: 671hp
Torque: 1050Nm
Range: 450km
Price: Dh601,800
On sale: now
RACE SCHEDULE
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Friday, September 29
First practice: 7am - 8.30am
Second practice: 11am - 12.30pm
Saturday, September 30
Qualifying: 1pm - 2pm
Sunday, October 1
Race: 11am - 1pm
How Beautiful this world is!
Pros%20and%20cons%20of%20BNPL
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Scoreline
Al Wasl 1 (Caio Canedo 90 1')
Al Ain 2 (Ismail Ahmed 3', Marcus Berg 50')
Red cards: Ismail Ahmed (Al Ain) 77'
The%20specs
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Results
5.30pm: Maiden Dh165,000 (Turf) 1,600m; Winner: Al Battar, Mickael Barzalona (jockey), Salem bin Ghadayer (trainer).
6.05pm: Maiden Dh165,000 (Dirt) 1,200m; Winner: Good Fighter, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
6.40pm: Handicap Dh185,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: Way Of Wisdom, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
7.15pm: Handicap Dh170,000 (D) 2,200m; Winner: Immortalised, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
7.50pm: Handicap Dh185,000 (T) 2,000m; Winner: Franz Kafka, James Doyle, Simon Crisford.
8.25pm: Handicap Dh185,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: Mayadeen, Connor Beasley, Doug Watson.
9pm: Handicap Dh185,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Chiefdom, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer
Company%20profile
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DMZ facts
- The DMZ was created as a buffer after the 1950-53 Korean War.
- It runs 248 kilometers across the Korean Peninsula and is 4km wide.
- The zone is jointly overseen by the US-led United Nations Command and North Korea.
- It is littered with an estimated 2 million mines, tank traps, razor wire fences and guard posts.
- Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un met at a building in Panmunjom, where an armistice was signed to stop the Korean War.
- Panmunjom is 52km north of the Korean capital Seoul and 147km south of Pyongyang, North Korea’s capital.
- Former US president Bill Clinton visited Panmunjom in 1993, while Ronald Reagan visited the DMZ in 1983, George W. Bush in 2002 and Barack Obama visited a nearby military camp in 2012.
- Mr Trump planned to visit in November 2017, but heavy fog that prevented his helicopter from landing.
Courses%20at%20Istituto%20Marangoni%2C%20Dubai
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Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
'Jurassic%20World%20Dominion'
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Aggro%20Dr1ft
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Zidane's managerial achievements
La Liga: 2016/17
Spanish Super Cup: 2017
Uefa Champions League: 2015/16, 2016/17, 2017/18
Uefa Super Cup: 2016, 2017
Fifa Club World Cup: 2016, 2017
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Company%20Profile
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One-off T20 International: UAE v Australia
When: Monday, October 22, 2pm start
Where: Abu Dhabi Cricket, Oval 1
Tickets: Admission is free
Australia squad: Aaron Finch (captain), Mitch Marsh, Alex Carey, Ashton Agar, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Chris Lynn, Nathan Lyon, Glenn Maxwell, Ben McDermott, Darcy Short, Billy Stanlake, Mitchell Starc, Andrew Tye, Adam Zampa, Peter Siddle
RESULTS
6.30pm: Emirates Holidays Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (Dirt) 1,900m
Winner: Lady Snazz, Richard Mullen (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer).
7.05pm: Arabian Adventures Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Zhou Storm, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
7.40pm: Emirates Skywards Handicap (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Rich And Famous, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
8.15pm: Emirates Airline Conditions (TB) Dh 120,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Rio Angie, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson.
8.50pm: Emirates Sky Cargo (TB) Dh 92,500 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Kinver Edge, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
9.15pm: Emirates.com (TB) Dh 95,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Firnas, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer.
The Bio
Name: Lynn Davison
Profession: History teacher at Al Yasmina Academy, Abu Dhabi
Children: She has one son, Casey, 28
Hometown: Pontefract, West Yorkshire in the UK
Favourite book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite Author: CJ Sansom
Favourite holiday destination: Bali
Favourite food: A Sunday roast
The struggle is on for active managers
David Einhorn closed out 2018 with his biggest annual loss ever for the 22-year-old Greenlight Capital.
The firm’s main hedge fund fell 9 per cent in December, extending this year’s decline to 34 percent, according to an investor update viewed by Bloomberg.
Greenlight posted some of the industry’s best returns in its early years, but has stumbled since losing more than 20 per cent in 2015.
Other value-investing managers have also struggled, as a decade of historically low interest rates and the rise of passive investing and quant trading pushed growth stocks past their inexpensive brethren. Three Bays Capital and SPO Partners & Co., which sought to make wagers on undervalued stocks, closed in 2018. Mr Einhorn has repeatedly expressed his frustration with the poor performance this year, while remaining steadfast in his commitment to value investing.
Greenlight, which posted gains only in May and October, underperformed both the broader market and its peers in 2018. The S&P 500 Index dropped 4.4 per cent, including dividends, while the HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index, an early indicator of industry performance, fell 7 per cent through December. 28.
At the start of the year, Greenlight managed $6.3 billion in assets, according to a regulatory filing. By May, the firm was down to $5.5bn.
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week
MORE ON IRAN'S PROXY WARS
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
About Tenderd
Started: May 2018
Founder: Arjun Mohan
Based: Dubai
Size: 23 employees
Funding: Raised $5.8m in a seed fund round in December 2018. Backers include Y Combinator, Beco Capital, Venturesouq, Paul Graham, Peter Thiel, Paul Buchheit, Justin Mateen, Matt Mickiewicz, SOMA, Dynamo and Global Founders Capital
RESULTS
6.30pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-2 – Group 1 (PA) $49,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
Winner RB Frynchh Dude, Pat Cosgrave (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
7.05pm Al Bastakiya Trial – Conditions (TB) $50,000 (D) 1,900m
Winner El Patriota, Vagner Leal, Antonio Cintra
7.40pm Zabeel Turf – Listed (TB) $88,000 (Turf) 2,000m
Winner Ya Hayati, Mickael Barzalona, Charlie Appleby
8.15pm Cape Verdi – Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner Althiqa, James Doyle, Charlie Appleby
8.50pm UAE 1000 Guineas – Listed (TB) $125,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner Soft Whisper, Frankie Dettori, Saeed bin Suroor
9.25pm Handicap (TB) $68,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner Bedouin’s Story, Frankie Dettori, Saeed bin Suroor
The biog
Name: Capt Shadia Khasif
Position: Head of the Criminal Registration Department at Hatta police
Family: Five sons and three daughters
The first female investigator in Hatta.
Role Model: Father
She believes that there is a solution to every problem
The End of Loneliness
Benedict Wells
Translated from the German by Charlotte Collins
Sceptre
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The Birkin bag is made by Hermès.
It is named after actress and singer Jane Birkin
Noone from Hermès will go on record to say how much a new Birkin costs, how long one would have to wait to get one, and how many bags are actually made each year.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
HOW TO WATCH
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COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Sebastian Stefan, Sebastian Morar and Claudia Pacurar
Based: Dubai, UAE
Founded: 2014
Number of employees: 36
Sector: Logistics
Raised: $2.5 million
Investors: DP World, Prime Venture Partners and family offices in Saudi Arabia and the UAE
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Six tips to secure your smart home
Most smart home devices are controlled via the owner's smartphone. Therefore, if you are using public wi-fi on your phone, always use a VPN (virtual private network) that offers strong security features and anonymises your internet connection.
Keep your smart home devices’ software up-to-date. Device makers often send regular updates - follow them without fail as they could provide protection from a new security risk.
Use two-factor authentication so that in addition to a password, your identity is authenticated by a second sign-in step like a code sent to your mobile number.
Set up a separate guest network for acquaintances and visitors to ensure the privacy of your IoT devices’ network.
Change the default privacy and security settings of your IoT devices to take extra steps to secure yourself and your home.
Always give your router a unique name, replacing the one generated by the manufacturer, to ensure a hacker cannot ascertain its make or model number.
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Aston martin DBX specs
Engine: 4.0-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 542bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Top speed: 291kph
Price: Dh848,000
On sale: Q2, 2020
RESULTS
5pm Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,600m
Winner Thabet Al Reef, Bernardo Pinheiro (jockey), Abdallah Al Hammadi (trainer)
5.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner Blue Diamond, Pat Cosgrave, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6pm Arabian Triple Crown Round-1 Listed (PA) Dh230,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner Hameem, Adrie de Vries, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6.30pm Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner Shoja’A Muscat, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7pm Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner Heros De Lagarde, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 (T) 2,400m
Winner Good Tidings, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
More Expo 2020 Dubai pavilions:
Getting there
Flydubai flies direct from Dubai to Tbilisi from Dh1,025 return including taxes
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Points to remember
- Debate the issue, don't attack the person
- Build the relationship and dialogue by seeking to find common ground
- Express passion for the issue but be aware of when you're losing control or when there's anger. If there is, pause and take some time out.
- Listen actively without interrupting
- Avoid assumptions, seek understanding, ask questions
The biog
DOB: 25/12/92
Marital status: Single
Education: Post-graduate diploma in UAE Diplomacy and External Affairs at the Emirates Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi
Hobbies: I love fencing, I used to fence at the MK Fencing Academy but I want to start again. I also love reading and writing
Lifelong goal: My dream is to be a state minister
