It’s a rare forum these days that can bring together senior figures from the US, Russia, Turkey, the Iraqi federal government, including groups close to Iran, and the two main parties from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
The Erbil Forum last week did that, but it also illustrated just how hard it will be to find common ground between all parties involved — and that is before throwing China into the mix.
There was a general feeling that, amid the war in Ukraine and the strategic competition with Beijing, Washington had lost interest in Iraq.
Yet the country remains pivotal to global energy. The second-largest oil producer within Opec, Iraq has room to grow output substantially and is a critical part of replacing any losses from Russia, if and when the group decides to open the taps. The Iraqi Kurdistan region’s gas resources could power the rest of Iraq and export to Turkey, providing Europe with a partial alternative to Moscow.
It is the fourth-largest Arab country both by population and greenhouse gas emissions. Its people languish in heat and darkness, while its renewable energy potential remains virtually untouched.
The geopolitical games are multilayered. Iraqi affairs have gradually improved since the darkest days of the civil war in 2006-2007 and the onslaught of ISIS in 2014.
But the country now risks being drawn into conflicts not of its making, involving two regional players, Iran and Turkey, and three outside powers, the US, Russia and China.
Two weeks ago, the federal government finally concluded six petroleum contracts waiting for signature since the fifth bid round in 2018.
Three were with Sharjah-based Crescent Petroleum, which already operates Iraqi Kurdistan’s largest gasfield, Khor Mor, in partnership with Abu Dhabi-listed Dana Gas and three European companies.
The gas production from these blocks could be crucial in improving electricity supply and in supplementing Iraq’s costly and unreliable imports from Iran.
This was doubly interesting.
Firstly, rocket attacks on Khor Mor in recent months were interpreted as warnings to Kurdish parties to fall in line with Tehran’s plans for the new government in Baghdad, but since they occurred again after government formation, they may also be seen as a threat not to pursue independent gas exports in competition with Iran in Iraq and Turkey.
Secondly, the Federal Ministry of Oil had warned companies not to operate in the Iraqi Kurdistan region, after a February 2022 supreme court ruling that its oil and gas law was unconstitutional. The judgement was seen as politicised, but still has been enough to scare off several leading oil service companies and possibly to discourage traders from renewing arrangements to purchase Kurdish oil.
Nevertheless, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani showed himself ready to sign with one of the most prominent operators in the semi-autonomous region.
A long-running arbitration wending its way through a Paris-based tribunal is expected soon to find in favour of Baghdad versus Ankara in declaring that Turkey breached a treaty when it allowed the Kurds to send oil through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline. Ankara won’t pay up the mooted multiple billions of dollars in damages, but whatever compromise is reached could also cast aside Kurdish interests.
Three of the other new field development contracts went to Chinese companies. They have become increasingly dominant in Iraq as others have packed their bags. If ExxonMobil leaves the West Qurna-1 field in favour of a Chinese partner, as is widely expected, China would operate more than half of Iraqi oil output. Chinese credit lines help underpin lending to Iraqi infrastructure, and Baghdad recently announced it was open to conducting some trade in yuan.
Russian corporations — Rosneft, Gazprom Neft and Lukoil — also have a strong position. Rosneft paid and loaned up to $3 billion to the Iraqi Kurdistan region for oil sales, fields and pipelines just ahead of Erbil’s referendum on independence in September 2017. They are unlikely to expand their position, though, given the difficulties of access to finance, banking and technology imposed by the Western sanctions.
The Iraqis themselves are aware of the danger of over-dependence on Beijing, but their investment-unfriendly policies block off alternatives. Recently, France’s TotalEnergies reportedly nearly walked away from a multibillion package to develop oil, gas, water injection and solar power.
A last-minute change of heart in Baghdad has brought them back to the negotiating table. However, there is not a great appetite from the other major international oil companies to do more, given their decarbonisation trajectories and the spread of opportunities elsewhere.
Iraq could manage external powers better if its own house were in order. But a federal law that would resolve management of the Kurdish petroleum sector, how oil should be sold and the revenues divided, appears out of reach. Despite talk of progress, the outline sounds like several previous deals that fell apart almost as soon as concluded.
The Kurdish position, meanwhile, is weakening, because of the widening split between the two main parties and even within the smaller of them, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. The colourful Bafel Talabani, leader of the PUK, appeared at the forum wearing his trademark mountain boots and, at the conclusion of his interview, theatrically tore off his tie, reportedly borrowed from his urbane brother Qubad.
He has previously said that gas exports to Turkey, from fields located in PUK-controlled areas, would take place over his “dead body” if the people’s interest were not fairly consulted.
But with oil resources running down, major gas projects are the main hope for new revenues and political importance.
Iraq thus illustrates in microcosm the dilemmas that many smaller and fragile states will encounter as Sino-Russo-American relations become increasingly uncompromising.
Stronger non-aligned countries can cleverly play off one great power against another. Weaker ones can easily be torn apart — bad news not just for their people, but for global energy security.
Robin M. Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
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Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
PAKISTAN SQUAD
Abid Ali, Fakhar Zaman, Imam-ul-Haq, Shan Masood, Azhar Ali (test captain), Babar Azam (T20 captain), Asad Shafiq, Fawad Alam, Haider Ali, Iftikhar Ahmad, Khushdil Shah, Mohammad Hafeez, Shoaib Malik, Mohammad Rizwan (wicketkeeper), Sarfaraz Ahmed (wicketkeeper), Faheem Ashraf, Haris Rauf, Imran Khan, Mohammad Abbas, Mohammad Hasnain, Naseem Shah, Shaheen Afridi, Sohail Khan, Usman Shinwari, Wahab Riaz, Imad Wasim, Kashif Bhatti, Shadab Khan and Yasir Shah.
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50-man Royal Rumble
Universal Championship Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns in a steel cage match
Intercontinental Championship Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
SmackDown Tag Team Championship The Bludgeon Brothers (champions) v The Usos
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Matches to be announced
WWE World Heavyweight Championship, Raw Tag Team Championship, United States Championship and the Cruiserweight Championship are all due to be defended
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Sole survivors
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The biog
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They also provide port chaplains to help them deliver professional welfare services.
Dubai Rugby Sevens
November 30-December 2, at The Sevens, Dubai
Gulf Under 19
Pool A – Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Jumeirah College Tigers, Dubai English Speaking School 1, Gems World Academy
Pool B – British School Al Khubairat, Bahrain Colts, Jumeirah College Lions, Dubai English Speaking School 2
Pool C - Dubai College A, Dubai Sharks, Jumeirah English Speaking School, Al Yasmina
Pool D – Dubai Exiles, Dubai Hurricanes, Al Ain Amblers, Deira International School
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Result
Arsenal 4
Monreal (51'), Ramsey (82'), Lacazette 85', 89')
West Ham United 1
Arnautovic (64')
FIXTURES
All games 6pm UAE on Sunday:
Arsenal v Watford
Burnley v Brighton
Chelsea v Wolves
Crystal Palace v Tottenham
Everton v Bournemouth
Leicester v Man United
Man City v Norwich
Newcastle v Liverpool
Southampton v Sheffield United
West Ham v Aston Villa
The specs: 2018 Volkswagen Teramont
Price, base / as tested Dh137,000 / Dh189,950
Engine 3.6-litre V6
Gearbox Eight-speed automatic
Power 280hp @ 6,200rpm
Torque 360Nm @ 2,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 11.7L / 100km
The specs: 2019 Haval H6
Price, base: Dh69,900
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
CHINESE GRAND PRIX STARTING GRID
1st row
Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari)
Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari)
2nd row
Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes-GP)
Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes-GP)
3rd row
Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing)
Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull Racing)
4th row
Nico Hulkenberg (Renault)
Sergio Perez (Force India)
5th row
Carlos Sainz Jr (Renault)
Romain Grosjean (Haas)
6th row
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7th row
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8th row
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9th row
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Lance Stroll (Williams)
10th row
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arcus Ericsson (Sauber)
match info
Southampton 2 (Ings 32' & pen 89') Tottenham Hotspur 5 (Son 45', 47', 64', & 73', Kane 82')
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Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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Afcon 2019
SEMI-FINALS
Senegal v Tunisia, 8pm
Algeria v Nigeria, 11pm
Matches are live on BeIN Sports
Healthy tips to remember
Here, Dr Mohamed El Abiary, paediatric consultant at Al Zahra Hospital Dubai, shares some advice for parents whose children are fasting during the holy month of Ramadan:
Gradual fasting and golden points - For children under the age of 10, follow a step-by-step approach to fasting and don't push them beyond their limits. Start with a few hours fasting a day and increase it to a half fast and full fast when the child is ready. Every individual's ability varies as per the age and personal readiness. You could introduce a points system that awards the child and offers them encouragement when they make progress with the amount of hours they fast
Why fast? - Explain to your child why they are fasting. By shedding light on the importance of abstaining from food and drink, children may feel more encouraged to give it there all during the observance period. It is also a good opportunity to teach children about controlling urges, doing good for others and instilling healthy food habits
Sleep and suhoor - A child needs adequate sleep every night - at least eight hours. Make sure to set a routine early bedtime so he/she has sufficient time to wake up for suhoor, which is an essential meal at the beginning of the day
Good diet - Nutritious food is crucial to ensuring a healthy Ramadan for children. They must refrain from eating too much junk food as well as canned goods and snacks and drinks high in sugar. Foods that are rich in nutrients, vitamins and proteins, like fruits, fresh meats and vegetables, make for a good balanced diet
UAE squad
Rohan Mustafa (captain), Ashfaq Ahmed, Ghulam Shabber, Rameez Shahzad, Mohammed Boota, Mohammed Usman, Adnan Mufti, Shaiman Anwar, Ahmed Raza, Imran Haider, Qadeer Ahmed, Mohammed Naveed, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
