This year is off to a good start for the global economy and financial markets, despite the pessimism about the outlook in the final weeks of 2022.
The S&P 500 index gained more than six per cent last month, the best January in four years, while the UK’s FTSE 100 index reached a record high last week. Markets have rallied on expectations that slowing inflation will allow central banks to pause rate hikes sooner rather than later, and perhaps ease monetary policy in the second half of this year.
However, that optimism on the outlook for rates may be premature, particularly given the relatively robust economic data from the US over the past couple of weeks. January’s job figures showed an astonishing 517,000 new jobs added in the US, almost three times what the market had been expecting, and upward revisions to December’s data as well.
While some of the surprise was due to statistical adjustments that happen every January, the labour market in the US appears to be in rude health despite recent headlines about tech layoffs and weakening economic activity. Wage growth has slowed slightly but at 4.4 per cent year-on-year, remains higher than the Fed would like to see it.
Other survey data for January was also encouraging. One key services sector survey pointed to a rebound in activity in January, although other surveys were more downbeat. The PMI data for the Eurozone and the UK also improved from December.
In the Eurozone, services growth offset the weakness in the manufacturing sector. The story was similar in China, where the Caixin Services PMI moved back into growth territory for the first time since August 2022, as Covid-zero restrictions were eased and people resumed travel within China for the lunar New Year.
While it is still far too early to say that the Fed has managed to achieve its “soft-landing” for the US economy – bringing inflation back down to target without causing a recession - it does appear that this outcome is a little more likely, given the slowing in inflation and still strong labour market. Indeed there is increased optimism that a severe contraction could be avoided in the Eurozone as well.
In its January update to the World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global growth in 2023 to 2.9 per cent from 2.7 per cent in the October report, with the forecasts for both US and Eurozone growth looking better than they were a few months ago.
The outlier (not in a good way) among the developed economies was the UK, where the IMF revised its growth forecast lower by almost a full percentage point, making the UK the only developed market expected to see GDP shrink this year.
The IMF expects growth in the Middle East and Central Asia to slow this year after a very strong 2022 performance, and downgraded its forecast for Saudi Arabia on lower expected oil production.
While oil and gas GDP is likely to slow in 2023, Emirates NBD expects the GCC economies to outperform their developed market counterparts this year in terms of growth, driven by strong public sector investment, particularly in Saudi Arabia.
The PMI survey data for January adds support to this view, with the PMI readings for both the UAE (54.1) and Saudi Arabia (58.2) remaining well above the neutral 50-level that separates expansion from contraction.
High oil prices will help to finance the significant domestic investment over the next several years, and this will underpin non-oil sector growth over the medium term.
Changing visa rules
For decades the UAE has granted two and three year visas to foreign workers, tied to their current employer. Now that's changing.
Last year, the UAE cabinet also approved providing 10-year visas to foreigners with investments in the UAE of at least Dh10 million, if non-real estate assets account for at least 60 per cent of the total. Investors can bring their spouses and children into the country.
It also approved five-year residency to owners of UAE real estate worth at least 5 million dirhams.
The government also said that leading academics, medical doctors, scientists, engineers and star students would be eligible for similar long-term visas, without the need for financial investments in the country.
The first batch - 20 finalists for the Mohammed bin Rashid Medal for Scientific Distinction.- were awarded in January and more are expected to follow.
Company%20profile
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Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
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THE BIO
Ms Davison came to Dubai from Kerala after her marriage in 1996 when she was 21-years-old
Since 2001, Ms Davison has worked at many affordable schools such as Our Own English High School in Sharjah, and The Apple International School and Amled School in Dubai
Favourite Book: The Alchemist
Favourite quote: Failing to prepare is preparing to fail
Favourite place to Travel to: Vienna
Favourite cuisine: Italian food
Favourite Movie : Scent of a Woman
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
The years Ramadan fell in May
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
More coverage from the Future Forum
More on animal trafficking
Quick facts on cancer
- Cancer is the second-leading cause of death worldwide, after cardiovascular diseases
- About one in five men and one in six women will develop cancer in their lifetime
- By 2040, global cancer cases are on track to reach 30 million
- 70 per cent of cancer deaths occur in low and middle-income countries
- This rate is expected to increase to 75 per cent by 2030
- At least one third of common cancers are preventable
- Genetic mutations play a role in 5 per cent to 10 per cent of cancers
- Up to 3.7 million lives could be saved annually by implementing the right health
strategies
- The total annual economic cost of cancer is $1.16 trillion
EXPATS
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What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
How the UAE gratuity payment is calculated now
Employees leaving an organisation are entitled to an end-of-service gratuity after completing at least one year of service.
The tenure is calculated on the number of days worked and does not include lengthy leave periods, such as a sabbatical. If you have worked for a company between one and five years, you are paid 21 days of pay based on your final basic salary. After five years, however, you are entitled to 30 days of pay. The total lump sum you receive is based on the duration of your employment.
1. For those who have worked between one and five years, on a basic salary of Dh10,000 (calculation based on 30 days):
a. Dh10,000 ÷ 30 = Dh333.33. Your daily wage is Dh333.33
b. Dh333.33 x 21 = Dh7,000. So 21 days salary equates to Dh7,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service. Multiply this figure for every year of service up to five years.
2. For those who have worked more than five years
c. 333.33 x 30 = Dh10,000. So 30 days’ salary is Dh10,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service.
Note: The maximum figure cannot exceed two years total salary figure.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Zayed Sustainability Prize
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
The five pillars of Islam
Indoor cricket World Cup:
Insportz, Dubai, September 16-23
UAE fixtures:
Men
Saturday, September 16 – 1.45pm, v New Zealand
Sunday, September 17 – 10.30am, v Australia; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Monday, September 18 – 2pm, v England; 7.15pm, v India
Tuesday, September 19 – 12.15pm, v Singapore; 5.30pm, v Sri Lanka
Thursday, September 21 – 2pm v Malaysia
Friday, September 22 – 3.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 3pm, grand final
Women
Saturday, September 16 – 5.15pm, v Australia
Sunday, September 17 – 2pm, v South Africa; 7.15pm, v New Zealand
Monday, September 18 – 5.30pm, v England
Tuesday, September 19 – 10.30am, v New Zealand; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Thursday, September 21 – 12.15pm, v Australia
Friday, September 22 – 1.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 1pm, grand final
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Name: Brendalle Belaza
From: Crossing Rubber, Philippines
Arrived in the UAE: 2007
Favourite place in Abu Dhabi: NYUAD campus
Favourite photography style: Street photography
Favourite book: Harry Potter
The Settlers
Director: Louis Theroux
Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz
Rating: 5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The years Ramadan fell in May
The years Ramadan fell in May
Buy farm-fresh food
The UAE is stepping up its game when it comes to platforms for local farms to show off and sell their produce.
In Dubai, visit Emirati Farmers Souq at The Pointe every Saturday from 8am to 2pm, which has produce from Al Ammar Farm, Omar Al Katri Farm, Hikarivege Vegetables, Rashed Farms and Al Khaleej Honey Trading, among others.
In Sharjah, the Aljada residential community will launch a new outdoor farmers’ market every Friday starting this weekend. Manbat will be held from 3pm to 8pm, and will host 30 farmers, local home-grown entrepreneurs and food stalls from the teams behind Badia Farms; Emirates Hydroponics Farms; Modern Organic Farm; Revolution Real; Astraea Farms; and Al Khaleej Food.
In Abu Dhabi, order farm produce from Food Crowd, an online grocery platform that supplies fresh and organic ingredients directly from farms such as Emirates Bio Farm, TFC, Armela Farms and mother company Al Dahra.
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
The five pillars of Islam
Zayed Sustainability Prize
