Last week a slew of Federal Reserve officials stuck to the script on the path for monetary policy this year, pushing back against market expectations for rate cuts in the second half of 2023.
In December, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) set out a hawkish set of interest rate projections, with the median forecast showing a Fed Funds rate of 5.25 per cent by the end of this year. However, projected rates from seven officials would end this year even higher than that, with two calling for an upper bound of 5.75 per cent.
All the Fed officials who spoke publicly last week have made it clear that they still believe that rates will need to rise above 5 per cent, in line with the 5.25 per cent median forecast, although there are some differences of opinion starting to emerge about the pace of the increments going forward.
James Bullard, considered a hawk, has said he is open to another 50 basis point increase at the end-January meeting, as he would prefer to get to a “restrictive” zone as quickly as possible.
However, several other policymakers have indicated that they would prefer to slow the pace of tightening to take into account new data as it emerges.
The most recent economic data does indicate that the tighter monetary policy over the last nine months is starting to have the desired impact on the economy.
In December, inflation slowed to 6.5 per cent year on year from a peak of 9.1 per cent in June and declined outright on a m/m basis for the first time since May 2020. Much of the softening in price pressures was due to lower fuel prices. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, still rose 0.3 per cent month on month.
Looking ahead though, key contributors to services inflation such as housing and medical care services are expected to ease in the coming months and, provided there are no new supply shocks, energy and commodity price inflation will slow off last year’s high base. There is also evidence that supply-chain related price pressures are easing.
More broadly, demand does appear to be slowing in the US. Industrial and manufacturing data showed a decline in output and activity at the end of last year and consumer spending is also under pressure, with retail sales falling 1.1 per cent month on month in December.
US banks reported in their fourth quarter earnings calls that more consumers are drawing down their savings and increasing their use of credit cards. The banks have increased their provisions as they expect economic conditions to worsen.
With the economy evidently deteriorating and inflation likely to slow in the coming months, the question then is why Fed officials are still sounding so hawkish.
The first thing to note is that while lower than it was a few months ago, inflation is still well above the Fed’s 2 per cent target. Even if inflation falls to 3.0 per cent as most analysts expect by the end of this year, that will be higher than many policymakers will be comfortable with.
The second issue is the strength of the US labour market and wage growth. Unemployment fell to its pre-pandemic low of 3.5 per cent in December and average hourly earnings remain well above the 3 per cent that the Fed says is consistent with 2 per cent inflation.
For these reasons alone, officials are likely to stress that they need to remain vigilant, even as inflation slows, and that rates will likely need to rise further.
Perhaps the main reason for the hawkish jawboning by policymakers over the last week, however, is that they don’t want financial conditions to ease too quickly.
The January equity rally and the two rate cuts already priced in for the second half of this year have contributed to some easing in financial conditions and if the trend continues, it could undermine the Fed’s efforts to rein in demand.
Officials are likely to keep pushing back against expectations of monetary policy easing until they are ready to deliver it.
However, if the economic data continues to worsen, unemployment moves above 4 per cent and inflation slows as expected, then the Fed will likely change its tune.
Khatija Haque is chief economist and head of research at Emirates NBD
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
england euro squad
Goalkeepers: Dean Henderson (Man Utd), Sam Johnstone (West Brom), Jordan Pickford (Everton)
Defenders: John Stones (Man City), Luke Shaw (Man Utd), Harry Maguire (Man Utd), Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool), Kyle Walker (Man City), Tyrone Mings (Aston Villa), Reece James (Chelsea), Conor Coady (Wolves), Ben Chilwell (Chelsea), Kieran Trippier (Atletico Madrid)
Midfielders: Mason Mount (Chelsea), Declan Rice (West Ham), Jordan Henderson (Liverpool), Jude Bellingham (Borussia Dortmund), Kalvin Phillips (Leeds)
Forwards: Harry Kane (Tottenham), Marcus Rashford (Man Utd), Raheem Sterling (Man City), Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Everton), Phil Foden (Man City), Jack Grealish (Aston Villa), Jadon Sancho (Borussia Dortmund), Bukayo Saka (Arsenal)
Final scores
18 under: Tyrrell Hatton (ENG)
- 14: Jason Scrivener (AUS)
-13: Rory McIlroy (NIR)
-12: Rafa Cabrera Bello (ESP)
-11: David Lipsky (USA), Marc Warren (SCO)
-10: Tommy Fleetwood (ENG), Chris Paisley (ENG), Matt Wallace (ENG), Fabrizio Zanotti (PAR)
Cry Macho
Director: Clint Eastwood
Stars: Clint Eastwood, Dwight Yoakam
Rating:**
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The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
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Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 3.5-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 380hp at 5,800rpm
Torque: 530Nm at 1,300-4,500rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Price: From Dh299,000 ($81,415)
On sale: Now
Intercontinental Cup
Namibia v UAE Saturday Sep 16-Tuesday Sep 19
Table 1 Ireland, 89 points; 2 Afghanistan, 81; 3 Netherlands, 52; 4 Papua New Guinea, 40; 5 Hong Kong, 39; 6 Scotland, 37; 7 UAE, 27; 8 Namibia, 27
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Jebel Ali Dragons 26 Bahrain 23
Dragons
Tries: Hayes, Richards, Cooper
Cons: Love
Pens: Love 3
Bahrain
Tries: Kenny, Crombie, Tantoh
Cons: Phillips
Pens: Phillips 2
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Tightening the screw on rogue recruiters
The UAE overhauled the procedure to recruit housemaids and domestic workers with a law in 2017 to protect low-income labour from being exploited.
Only recruitment companies authorised by the government are permitted as part of Tadbeer, a network of labour ministry-regulated centres.
A contract must be drawn up for domestic workers, the wages and job offer clearly stating the nature of work.
The contract stating the wages, work entailed and accommodation must be sent to the employee in their home country before they depart for the UAE.
The contract will be signed by the employer and employee when the domestic worker arrives in the UAE.
Only recruitment agencies registered with the ministry can undertake recruitment and employment applications for domestic workers.
Penalties for illegal recruitment in the UAE include fines of up to Dh100,000 and imprisonment
But agents not authorised by the government sidestep the law by illegally getting women into the country on visit visas.
ENGLAND SQUAD
Goalkeepers Henderson, Johnstone, Pickford, Ramsdale
Defenders Alexander-Arnold, Chilwell, Coady, Godfrey, James, Maguire, Mings, Shaw, Stones, Trippier, Walker, White
Midfielders Bellingham, Henderson, Lingard, Mount, Phillips, Rice, Ward-Prowse
Forwards Calvert-Lewin, Foden, Grealish, Greenwood, Kane, Rashford, Saka, Sancho, Sterling, Watkins
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Visit Abu Dhabi culinary team's top Emirati restaurants in Abu Dhabi
Yadoo’s House Restaurant & Cafe
For the karak and Yoodo's house platter with includes eggs, balaleet, khamir and chebab bread.
Golden Dallah
For the cappuccino, luqaimat and aseeda.
Al Mrzab Restaurant
For the shrimp murabian and Kuwaiti options including Kuwaiti machboos with kebab and spicy sauce.
Al Derwaza
For the fish hubul, regag bread, biryani and special seafood soup.
What it means to be a conservationist
Who is Enric Sala?
Enric Sala is an expert on marine conservation and is currently the National Geographic Society's Explorer-in-Residence. His love of the sea started with his childhood in Spain, inspired by the example of the legendary diver Jacques Cousteau. He has been a university professor of Oceanography in the US, as well as working at the Spanish National Council for Scientific Research and is a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Biodiversity and the Bio-Economy. He has dedicated his life to protecting life in the oceans. Enric describes himself as a flexitarian who only eats meat occasionally.
What is biodiversity?
According to the United Nations Environment Programme, all life on earth – including in its forests and oceans – forms a “rich tapestry of interconnecting and interdependent forces”. Biodiversity on earth today is the product of four billion years of evolution and consists of many millions of distinct biological species. The term ‘biodiversity’ is relatively new, popularised since the 1980s and coinciding with an understanding of the growing threats to the natural world including habitat loss, pollution and climate change. The loss of biodiversity itself is dangerous because it contributes to clean, consistent water flows, food security, protection from floods and storms and a stable climate. The natural world can be an ally in combating global climate change but to do so it must be protected. Nations are working to achieve this, including setting targets to be reached by 2020 for the protection of the natural state of 17 per cent of the land and 10 per cent of the oceans. However, these are well short of what is needed, according to experts, with half the land needed to be in a natural state to help avert disaster.
Sukuk
An Islamic bond structured in a way to generate returns without violating Sharia strictures on prohibition of interest.
Three ways to limit your social media use
Clinical psychologist, Dr Saliha Afridi at The Lighthouse Arabia suggests three easy things you can do every day to cut back on the time you spend online.
1. Put the social media app in a folder on the second or third screen of your phone so it has to remain a conscious decision to open, rather than something your fingers gravitate towards without consideration.
2. Schedule a time to use social media instead of consistently throughout the day. I recommend setting aside certain times of the day or week when you upload pictures or share information.
3. Take a mental snapshot rather than a photo on your phone. Instead of sharing it with your social world, try to absorb the moment, connect with your feeling, experience the moment with all five of your senses. You will have a memory of that moment more vividly and for far longer than if you take a picture of it.
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Directed by Sam Mendes
Starring Dean-Charles Chapman, George MacKay, Daniel Mays
4.5/5
MEDIEVIL%20(1998)
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The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
