“We can survive. We will survive this winter season,” said Maksim Timchenko, chief executive of DTEK, the largest private energy company in Ukraine.
His company and its workers are battling to keep the country’s electricity flowing under a hail of Russian drones and missiles. The war may — hopefully — end soon, or it may drag on. But what happens to European energy supplies afterwards?
The Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Forum, held in Abu Dhabi at the weekend, contained a fascinating cast of characters of the gas business: Gulf, European and US government, major international and national oil companies, gas exporters and buyers.
Their perspectives had many commonalities but some sharp points of divergence.
Global Energy Forum — in pictures
The keenest differences regarded the war in Ukraine and Europe’s energy situation. These have two huge implications.
During the forum, Saad Al Kaabi, Qatar’s Minister of State for Energy Affairs and president and chief executive of QatarEnergy, said that Russian gas would be coming back into Europe at some point.
Claudio Descalzi, chief executive of Italian energy company Eni, on the other hand, answered a question about forgiving Russia with: “We have to forget Russia? It is not easy to forgive.”
Europe’s looming eastern neighbour supplied nearly 40 per cent of its gas in 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic and war intervened.
Apart from deliveries to Turkey, only a dribble of gas via Ukraine remains and that too may soon be cut entirely. The International Energy Agency thinks Europe will be short of about 30 billion cubic metres (bcm) this year.
Historically, liquefied natural gas delivered by tanker to Europe has been a balancing factor, meeting the deficit after domestic production and Russian imports by pipeline, and accounting for swings in demand owing to weather and the economy.
Europe took in more than 80 bcm in 2011, dropping to barely 40 bcm in 2013 and 2014 as prices rose, then a record 107 bcm in 2019, a fifth of its total needs.
A Europe devoid of Russian gas will be very different. Like the Asian trio of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, it will need huge quantities of LNG as baseload. Most of that will come from Qatar, the US and Africa. But for how long?
EU gas consumption in the August-November period was 20 per cent lower than the average of the preceding five years — even including the Covid year of 2020.
Yes, the winter was unusually warm, but the summer was hot and dry, and French nuclear reactors were down for maintenance. Despite warnings of deindustrialisation, the German economy actually grew a reasonable 1.9 per cent.
The continent has hastened its pursuit of energy efficiency and renewables. Large-scale imports of hydrogen could begin around 2026.
It plans to cut greenhouse emissions steeply by 2030 on its way to net-zero carbon by 2050 (and between 2035 and 2045 for some European countries, including Germany).
Watch: This will be 'a Cop of solidarity' says Cop28 President-designate Dr Sultan Al Jaber
Almost no new LNG export capacity will hit the market between now and 2025.
High prices and scant provisions will encourage growing Asian economies to rely on a mix of coal and renewables instead, and Japan and South Korea will try to boost their nuclear output, so Asian gas demand will not grow much.
However, from 2025 until the end of the decade, there will be a vast wave of supply from Qatar, North America, the UAE, and east and north-west Africa.
QatarEnergy is one of those carrying out a huge expansion of its LNG export capacity. Mr Al Kaabi complained of the difficulty of investing in multi-decade projects for clients who are only willing to sign up to buy gas over two to three years.
His wish for long-term contracts is very understandable given his belief that Russian gas will eventually return to Europe.
This would require an end to the war on acceptable terms to both Brussels and Kyiv, and probably major changes within the Russian political sphere.
This would require an end to the war on acceptable terms to both Brussels and Kyiv, and probably major changes within the Russian political sphere.
Robin Mills
Even then, although some relabelled Russian gas will arrive via Turkey, Europe would surely never go back to relying on Moscow for anything more than a sliver.
A combination of some returning Russian supplies, a lot of new LNG, and weakened demand in Asia and Europe gives our first major implication: global gas in the decade’s second half may suddenly be heavily oversupplied, meaning prices could tumble.
LNG output is inflexible: plants are costly to build, so they generally run as close to maximum capacity as possible.
Users of American facilities, which usually buy their gas from the grid, might cut back exports if domestic prices are relatively high and international prices low, as happened in 2020, but that is a rarity.
Russia used to provide global flexibility, scaling back exports when demand was low, as in the 2009 financial crisis.
The Netherlands’ Groningen field did the same on a smaller scale; it is now being closed down. That leaves only Norway as a likely flexible supplier of scale.
So prices will be much more volatile. They might have to drop very low at times to choke off unwanted supply.
Prices can then soar when the market tightens, as they did in August when the German government spent some €7.8 billion ($8.4 billion) to refill stocks, leaving it sitting on a paper loss of some €4.4 billion when the warm weather caused prices to tumble again.
Gas traders, sellers with access to a range of different markets and pricing mechanisms, buyers able to switch fuels or store large quantities of gas, will benefit.
Investors in long-term production and export projects will face a more challenging task in attracting financing, to a sector already suffering from banks’ aversion to fossil fuels.
The gas stakeholders gathering in Abu Dhabi might differ on forgiving and forgetting, but no one doubts that the war is a watershed for their business.
Robin M. Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Infiniti QX80 specs
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Power: 450hp
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
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Power: 134bhp
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Zayed Sustainability Prize
More from Neighbourhood Watch
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
The years Ramadan fell in May
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup – Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Read more about the coronavirus
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The five pillars of Islam
Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
The five pillars of Islam
Zayed Sustainability Prize
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
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- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Family reunited
Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe was born and raised in Tehran and studied English literature before working as a translator in the relief effort for the Japanese International Co-operation Agency in 2003.
She moved to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies before moving to the World Health Organisation as a communications officer.
She came to the UK in 2007 after securing a scholarship at London Metropolitan University to study a master's in communication management and met her future husband through mutual friends a month later.
The couple were married in August 2009 in Winchester and their daughter was born in June 2014.
She was held in her native country a year later.
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Specs
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Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
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More coverage from the Future Forum
The years Ramadan fell in May
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Specs
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Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
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Retirement funds heavily invested in equities at a risky time
Pension funds in growing economies in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East have a sharply higher percentage of assets parked in stocks, just at a time when trade tensions threaten to derail markets.
Retirement money managers in 14 geographies now allocate 40 per cent of their assets to equities, an 8 percentage-point climb over the past five years, according to a Mercer survey released last week that canvassed government, corporate and mandatory pension funds with almost $5 trillion in assets under management. That compares with about 25 per cent for pension funds in Europe.
The escalating trade spat between the US and China has heightened fears that stocks are ripe for a downturn. With tensions mounting and outcomes driven more by politics than economics, the S&P 500 Index will be on course for a “full-scale bear market” without Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, Citigroup’s global macro strategy team said earlier this week.
The increased allocation to equities by growth-market pension funds has come at the expense of fixed-income investments, which declined 11 percentage points over the five years, according to the survey.
Hong Kong funds have the highest exposure to equities at 66 per cent, although that’s been relatively stable over the period. Japan’s equity allocation jumped 13 percentage points while South Korea’s increased 8 percentage points.
The money managers are also directing a higher portion of their funds to assets outside of their home countries. On average, foreign stocks now account for 49 per cent of respondents’ equity investments, 4 percentage points higher than five years ago, while foreign fixed-income exposure climbed 7 percentage points to 23 per cent. Funds in Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan are among those seeking greater diversification in stocks and fixed income.
• Bloomberg
Hotel Silence
Auður Ava Ólafsdóttir
Pushkin Press
Profile
Company: Libra Project
Based: Masdar City, ADGM, London and Delaware
Launch year: 2017
Size: A team of 12 with six employed full-time
Sector: Renewable energy
Funding: $500,000 in Series A funding from family and friends in 2018. A Series B round looking to raise $1.5m is now live.
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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TERMINAL HIGH ALTITUDE AREA DEFENCE (THAAD)
What is THAAD?
It is considered to be the US's most superior missile defence system.
Production:
It was created in 2008.
Speed:
THAAD missiles can travel at over Mach 8, so fast that it is hypersonic.
Abilities:
THAAD is designed to take out ballistic missiles as they are on their downward trajectory towards their target, otherwise known as the "terminal phase".
Purpose:
To protect high-value strategic sites, such as airfields or population centres.
Range:
THAAD can target projectiles inside and outside the Earth's atmosphere, at an altitude of 150 kilometres above the Earth's surface.
Creators:
Lockheed Martin was originally granted the contract to develop the system in 1992. Defence company Raytheon sub-contracts to develop other major parts of the system, such as ground-based radar.
UAE and THAAD:
In 2011, the UAE became the first country outside of the US to buy two THAAD missile defence systems. It then stationed them in 2016, becoming the first Gulf country to do so.
'Brazen'
Director: Monika Mitchell
Starring: Alyssa Milano, Sam Page, Colleen Wheeler
Rating: 3/5
RACECARD
6pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 – Group 1 (PA) $50,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
6.35pm: Festival City Stakes – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (D) 1,200m
7.10pm: Dubai Racing Club Classic – Listed (TB) $100,000 (Turf) 2,410m
7.45pm: Jumeirah Classic Trial – Conditions (TB) $150,000 (T) 1,400m
8.20pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 – Group 2 (TB) $250,000 (D) 1,600m
8.55pm: Cape Verdi – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,600m
9.30pm: Dubai Dash – Listed (TB) $100,000 (T) 1,000m
U19 WORLD CUP, WEST INDIES
UAE group fixtures (all in St Kitts)
Saturday 15 January: v Canada
Thursday 20 January: v England
Saturday 22 January: v Bangladesh
UAE squad
Alishan Sharafu (captain), Shival Bawa, Jash Giyanani, Sailles Jaishankar, Nilansh Keswani, Aayan Khan, Punya Mehra, Ali Naseer, Ronak Panoly, Dhruv Parashar, Vinayak Raghavan, Soorya Sathish, Aryansh Sharma, Adithya Shetty, Kai Smith
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
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88 Video's most popular rentals
Avengers 3: Infinity War: an American superhero film released in 2018 and based on the Marvel Comics story.
Sholay: a 1975 Indian action-adventure film. It follows the adventures of two criminals hired by police to catch a vagabond. The film was panned on release but is now considered a classic.
Lucifer: is a 2019 Malayalam-language action film. It dives into the gritty world of Kerala’s politics and has become one of the highest-grossing Malayalam films of all time.
The 15 players selected
Muzzamil Afridi, Rahman Gul, Rizwan Haider (Dezo Devils); Shahbaz Ahmed, Suneth Sampath (Glory Gladiators); Waqas Gohar, Jamshaid Butt, Shadab Ahamed (Ganga Fighters); Ali Abid, Ayaz Butt, Ghulam Farid, JD Mahesh Kumara (Hiranni Heros); Inam Faried, Mausif Khan, Ashok Kumar (Texas Titans
Tips to keep your car cool
- Place a sun reflector in your windshield when not driving
- Park in shaded or covered areas
- Add tint to windows
- Wrap your car to change the exterior colour
- Pick light interiors - choose colours such as beige and cream for seats and dashboard furniture
- Avoid leather interiors as these absorb more heat
The%20specs
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KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
EPL's youngest
- Ethan Nwaneri (Arsenal)
15 years, 181 days old
- Max Dowman (Arsenal)
15 years, 235 days old
- Jeremy Monga (Leicester)
15 years, 271 days old
- Harvey Elliott (Fulham)
16 years, 30 days old
- Matthew Briggs (Fulham)
16 years, 68 days old
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Hamilton profile
Age 32
Country United Kingdom
Grands Prix entered 198
Pole positions 67
Wins 57
Podiums 110
Points 2,423
World Championships 3
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The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
