Four plagues dominated this year: a literal pestilence, war, inflation and climate change. They will continue to cast a loathsome shadow as we pass the New Year. But with some optimism and ingenuity, 2023 can bring recovery and resurgence.
Covid continued to exact a high death toll, and a lingering legacy of ill health and disruptions to work and travel. Most parts of the world, aided by vaccinations, have accepted the disease as endemic, with a steady revival of commuting and tourism boosting oil demand.
China, though, persisted in its zero-Covid policy, with oil prices oscillating in response to every oracular pronouncement from the Politburo.
On December 6, its coronavirus czar Sun Chunlan ripped off the sticking plaster: the most draconian restrictions were lifted. A wave of sickness and death promptly spread across the Middle Kingdom.
Some have speculated that Russia’s military offensive in Ukraine was influenced by the pandemic isolation of the man in the Kremlin. From an energy point of view, though, the conflict was well-timed.
The slow strangulation of Europe’s gas supplies from September 2021 threatened the continent. The rise in oil prices from the early 2020 crash, aided by Russia’s alliance with Opec limited the severity of sanctions that could be imposed.
Oil prices did surge following the conflict’s outbreak, but since June and especially November, they have fallen back to their starting point, even though Opec resumed its production cuts, and Europe and the US belatedly introduced unprecedented bans and price caps on Russian oil exports.
Gas prices have also dropped from August’s extremities, though they are still very high by historic standards.
A warm start to the winter has helped European residents, even though colder weather has blown into both Europe and North America more recently.
High energy prices, illness-induced absenteeism, disrupted supply chains and geopolitically-mediated trade protectionism have all helped stoke inflation.
Tighter global monetary conditions by central banks globally, particularly in the US and Europe, have raised the risk of a recession and contributed to lower oil prices.
The cut-offs of Russian gas and the consequent scramble for limited supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) led to a revival in the use of coal, the most polluting fuel, across Europe and Asia.
November's Cop27 conference in Egypt produced some progress on technical issues and finance, but no breakthroughs on climate ambition.
In the summer, record heatwaves struck Europe and China, and unprecedented floods deluged Pakistan.
In the Middle East, Gulf countries have warded off these plagues better than almost anywhere else.
The pandemic has been handled well, oil production was allowed to rise until October, energy prices and investment have been strong and inflation moderate. The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait all saw their strongest economic growth for about a decade this year.
Despite all the usual hotspots, the region has thankfully avoided further serious conflict, apart from the brutal response to the protests in Iran.
But most of the remainder of the world has suffered. So what reason is there for optimism in 2023?
Hopefully, progress on combating Covid will continue, the China wave will recede, and no more serious variants will emerge.
Continuing gains in travel would support oil demand; it would also ease some of the damaging isolationism and lack of person-to-person contact from the past three years.
Much violence lies ahead in Ukraine, but the loss of gas revenues and the tightening measures against oil exports will constrict the Russian economy.
The weather over the remaining two to three winter months will be crucial for Europe’s living standards and industry. The continent’s political coherence has remained impressively solid.
Observers have warned that 2023 will be an even tougher year for Europe’s gas consumers since it will receive virtually no Russian supplies for the whole year to refill its drained storage.
There is little new LNG on the world market until 2025. Government coffers to support industries and householders are emptying.
But as long as Brussels can avoid some mooted, misguided gas market policies, it should actually come through better next year.
Repairs to French nuclear stations, a surge in renewable installations, better energy efficiency and — unfortunately — recession and deindustrialisation, will reduce gas demand.
New LNG import terminals in Germany and elsewhere provide better access for gas to central Europe.
A more open confrontation between Washington and Beijing remains an unlikely though potentially cataclysmic prospect.
Closer to home, it will take wise policies to avoid combustion between a besieged Iranian regime, the failure of the nuclear negotiations, and a hawkish Israeli government.
The oil market will be wrenched between sanctions on Russia, Opec policy, the odd supply disruption elsewhere, and demand.
In turn, demand depends on economic growth, with a feared global recession.
But a mild downturn — not a repeat of 2008-2009 or 2020 — would still see some oil consumption growth, and a moderation of prices rather than a collapse, with room for Opec to fine-tune output.
The International Monetary Fund forecasts global inflation halving by the end of next year.
Key motors for tackling climate change are gaining momentum.
Today’s expensive and insecure energy, along with huge new climate and energy packages in the US and EU, will spur the deployment of new gas to replace coal, renewables, electric vehicles, advanced nuclear power, breakthrough batteries, hydrogen and carbon capture.
The UAE, hosting Cop28 next November, has a crucial opportunity to advance bold but practical cuts in emissions.
For all the solar panels we see on European roofs and Teslas on Gulf roads, we will all breathe a little easier when we see global greenhouse emissions actually falling.
Global heating drives energy insecurity, disease, war, inflation and economic decline. Next year can see victories over viruses and violence, conflict and climate change.
Robin M. Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Unresolved crisis
Russia and Ukraine have been locked in a bitter conflict since 2014, when Ukraine’s Kremlin-friendly president was ousted, Moscow annexed Crimea and then backed a separatist insurgency in the east.
Fighting between the Russia-backed rebels and Ukrainian forces has killed more than 14,000 people. In 2015, France and Germany helped broker a peace deal, known as the Minsk agreements, that ended large-scale hostilities but failed to bring a political settlement of the conflict.
The Kremlin has repeatedly accused Kiev of sabotaging the deal, and Ukrainian officials in recent weeks said that implementing it in full would hurt Ukraine.
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
ASHES SCHEDULE
First Test
November 23-27 (The Gabba, Brisbane)
Second Test
December 2-6 (Adelaide Oval, Adelaide)
Third Test
December 14-18 (Waca Ground, Perth)
Fourth Test
December 26-30 (Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne)
Fifth Test
January 4-8, 2018 (Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney)
The%20Sandman
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What is graphene?
Graphene is extracted from graphite and is made up of pure carbon.
It is 200 times more resistant than steel and five times lighter than aluminum.
It conducts electricity better than any other material at room temperature.
It is thought that graphene could boost the useful life of batteries by 10 per cent.
Graphene can also detect cancer cells in the early stages of the disease.
The material was first discovered when Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov were 'playing' with graphite at the University of Manchester in 2004.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Company profile
Name: Steppi
Founders: Joe Franklin and Milos Savic
Launched: February 2020
Size: 10,000 users by the end of July and a goal of 200,000 users by the end of the year
Employees: Five
Based: Jumeirah Lakes Towers, Dubai
Financing stage: Two seed rounds – the first sourced from angel investors and the founders' personal savings
Second round raised Dh720,000 from silent investors in June this year
TICKETS
Tickets start at Dh100 for adults, while children can enter free on the opening day. For more information, visit www.mubadalawtc.com.
