“In the human fugue there are eighteen hundred million parts,” wrote Aldous Huxley, author of Brave New World. “The resultant noise means something perhaps to the statistician.”
Huxley published his novel Point Counter Point just 94 years ago; on November 15, UN statisticians estimated that the global population had passed eight billion.
It is not only people; we keep 19 billion chickens, 1.5 billion cows, 1 billion sheep, 1 billion pigs and 1.1 billion domestic cats and dogs. Wild animals — not just lions and pandas, but the innumerable hordes of mice, rats and bats — account for just 4 per cent of the biomass of all mammals.
In fact, like 2022, 1928 was a landmark population year: the number of humans crossed 2 billion, according to modern estimates. This is despite the ravages of the First World War and Spanish flu pandemic that killed 70 million people between them.
World population hits 8 billion — in pictures
Demographics have a tremendous momentum: the rising population was hardly slowed by the 75 million people who died as a result of the Second World War, about 3 per cent of people then alive.
The late 1950s also experienced one of the fastest global population increases in history.
These trends caught the attention of the rising environmentalist movement in the 1960s.
In 1968, the influential book The Population Bomb, by Stanford University academics Anne Ehrlich and Paul Ehrlich, wrote: “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now.”
In the same year, the Club of Rome was founded and, in 1972, it warned in The Limits of Growth of the exhaustion of oil, metals and food.
We have not starved or run out of minerals, but today, the major concern is climate change.
An ever-growing number of people who need air-conditioning, nitrogenous fertilisers and homes made from steel, concrete and glass, seems to mean unstoppable greenhouse gas emissions.
So does the rising population forebode a hot, hungry and crowded planet? And surely we cannot feed, power and move this seemingly relentlessly swelling horde of humanity and other animals, and preserve a liveable environment, without reducing our numbers?
Such alarmist predictions are wrong in four ways.
First, the population is not growing that much any more. The UN thinks we will reach a maximum of about 10.4 billion during the 2080s. Two thirds of people now live in a country with fewer than 2.1 births per woman, below the long-term replacement level.
Barring a truly cataclysmic war, plague, societal collapse, asteroid strike or robot takeover on the one hand, or an unexpected resurgence in fertility or huge extension in lifespan on the other, these forecasts are near-inevitable.
Watch: Why are rich nations paying for climate 'loss and damage'?
Second, warnings about overpopulation usually concentrate on East and South Asia and Africa. Indeed, the population in Europe and Japan is set to fall, and the problem will be to attract sufficient immigration to sustain the economy and look after a growing elderly cohort.
But China’s working-age population also peaked in 2014 and its overall population may drop after this year.
Bangladesh, the most densely populated country in the world after small islands and city-states, had a birth rate of almost seven children per woman in the early 1970s; now it is less than two, below the replacement level. Alarms of “third-world” overpopulation are often thinly veiled racism.
Third, the climate problem is not driven by the absolute number of people, but by their lifestyle.
The average American emits nearly 200 times as much carbon dioxide as the average citizen of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Little Luxembourg pollutes nearly four times as much per person as neighbouring France. A few thousand ultra-wealthy with their private jets and super-yachts outweigh millions of Africans.
Fourth, we use resources ever more efficiently. Land use for food per person has halved since 1960. As agricultural hectarage has declined slightly since 2000, we may have passed “peak land”, a point at which our farming footprint would gradually diminish.
The all-time peak for oil use per person was in the late 1970s, after which it dropped sharply, then flattened out. The rising use of electric cars will probably bring a further downwards trend in the next few years. Carbon dioxide emissions from energy use reached a high in 2013 and have gradually dropped since then.
Energy use per person, though, continues to grow gradually, with the spread of middle-class lifestyles around the planet.
Scenarios such as those of the International Energy Agency show sharp drops in overall energy consumption as we move towards a “net-zero” carbon world by the mid-century.
This comes largely from a shift to intrinsically more efficient technologies — renewables and electric cars that do not shed more than half their energy input as waste heat.
Such forecasts are probably wrong — energy use will continue to rise as new technologies and desires emerge.
The all-time peak for oil use per person was in the late 1970s, after which it dropped sharply, then flattened out
Robin Mills
But with sensible policies, we will decarbonise. And whether policies are good or bad, the now slow rate of population growth — less than 1 per cent per year — is not the decisive factor in achieving the annual falls of more than 5 per cent in greenhouse gas emissions required for net zero by mid-century.
Families, and especially women, should certainly be given the rights and means to manage their fertility and plan the number of children they want.
But we should not instrumentalise this in service of an agenda of population control: it is a matter of human dignity and well-being.
It is a reason not for despair but for celebration that we can sustain eight billion people, their creations and aspirations and, for most of them, in tolerable peace and prosperity.
Human beings are not simply machines for emitting carbon dioxide: as last week’s breakthrough in fusion energy reminds us, each baby is a potential great scientist, political leader, communicator, entrepreneur or environmentalist.
Nor is it necessary to be famous: as novelist George Eliot wrote: “The growing good of the world is partly dependent on unhistoric acts; and that things are not so ill with you and me as they might have been, is half owing to the number who lived faithfully a hidden life.”
Robin M. Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Company Profile
Company name: Fine Diner
Started: March, 2020
Co-founders: Sami Elayan, Saed Elayan and Zaid Azzouka
Based: Dubai
Industry: Technology and food delivery
Initial investment: Dh75,000
Investor: Dtec Startupbootcamp
Future plan: Looking to raise $400,000
Total sales: Over 1,000 deliveries in three months
The specs
Price: From Dh180,000 (estimate)
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged and supercharged in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 320hp @ 5,700rpm
Torque: 400Nm @ 2,200rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 9.7L / 100km
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Types of fraud
Phishing: Fraudsters send an unsolicited email that appears to be from a financial institution or online retailer. The hoax email requests that you provide sensitive information, often by clicking on to a link leading to a fake website.
Smishing: The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.
Vishing: The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.
SIM swap: Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.
Identity theft: Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.
Prize scams: Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.
* Nada El Sawy
'Gold'
Director:Anthony Hayes
Stars:Zaf Efron, Anthony Hayes
Rating:3/5
Napoleon
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The bio
Studied up to grade 12 in Vatanappally, a village in India’s southern Thrissur district
Was a middle distance state athletics champion in school
Enjoys driving to Fujairah and Ras Al Khaimah with family
His dream is to continue working as a social worker and help people
Has seven diaries in which he has jotted down notes about his work and money he earned
Keeps the diaries in his car to remember his journey in the Emirates
Opening day UAE Premiership fixtures, Friday, September 22:
- Dubai Sports City Eagles v Dubai Exiles
- Dubai Hurricanes v Abu Dhabi Saracens
- Jebel Ali Dragons v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
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Evacuations to France hit by controversy
- Over 500 Gazans have been evacuated to France since November 2023
- Evacuations were paused after a student already in France posted anti-Semitic content and was subsequently expelled to Qatar
- The Foreign Ministry launched a review to determine how authorities failed to detect the posts before her entry
- Artists and researchers fall under a programme called Pause that began in 2017
- It has benefited more than 700 people from 44 countries, including Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Sudan
- Since the start of the Gaza war, it has also included 45 Gazan beneficiaries
- Unlike students, they are allowed to bring their families to France
More on animal trafficking
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
BIOSAFETY LABS SECURITY LEVELS
Biosafety Level 1
The lowest safety level. These labs work with viruses that are minimal risk to humans.
Hand washing is required on entry and exit and potentially infectious material decontaminated with bleach before thrown away.
Must have a lock. Access limited. Lab does not need to be isolated from other buildings.
Used as teaching spaces.
Study microorganisms such as Staphylococcus which causes food poisoning.
Biosafety Level 2
These labs deal with pathogens that can be harmful to people and the environment such as Hepatitis, HIV and salmonella.
Working in Level 2 requires special training in handling pathogenic agents.
Extra safety and security precautions are taken in addition to those at Level 1
Biosafety Level 3
These labs contain material that can be lethal if inhaled. This includes SARS coronavirus, MERS, and yellow fever.
Significant extra precautions are taken with staff given specific immunisations when dealing with certain diseases.
Infectious material is examined in a biological safety cabinet.
Personnel must wear protective gowns that must be discarded or decontaminated after use.
Strict safety and handling procedures are in place. There must be double entrances to the building and they must contain self-closing doors to reduce risk of pathogen aerosols escaping.
Windows must be sealed. Air from must be filtered before it can be recirculated.
Biosafety Level 4
The highest level for biosafety precautions. Scientist work with highly dangerous diseases that have no vaccine or cure.
All material must be decontaminated.
Personnel must wear a positive pressure suit for protection. On leaving the lab this must pass through decontamination shower before they have a personal shower.
Entry is severely restricted to trained and authorised personnel. All entries are recorded.
Entrance must be via airlocks.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
HOW DO SIM CARD SCAMS WORK?
Sim swap frauds are a form of identity theft.
They involve criminals conning mobile phone operators into issuing them with replacement Sim cards, often by claiming their phone has been lost or stolen
They use the victim's personal details - obtained through criminal methods - to convince such companies of their identity.
The criminal can then access any online service that requires security codes to be sent to a user's mobile phone, such as banking services.
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The candidates
Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
The%20specs%20
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
French Touch
Carla Bruni
(Verve)
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