The GCC countries have enjoyed a strong performance in 2022 on several fronts. We expect economic growth in the region to come in at around 7 per cent on a nominal gross domestic product-weighted basis, the fastest in more than a decade.
This has largely been driven by double-digit growth in oil production across the region as the pandemic-related production cuts were fully unwound.
However, the non-oil sectors have performed well too, and we expect average non-oil GDP to reach 4.4 per cent this year, similar to the growth rate achieved across the GCC in 2021, even as global growth has slowed this year.
Domestic demand has continued to rebound from the pandemic and the recovery in global travel and tourism has also supported the non-oil sectors, particularly in the UAE.
Expo 2020 Dubai contributed to strong growth in the UAE’s tourism and hospitality sectors in the first quarter of 2022, and the reopening of long-haul markets has seen visitor numbers rebound sharply from last year, although they remain around 15 per cent below 2019 levels through September.
The FIFA World Cup tournament in Doha is expected to support demand in the fourth quarter, even as the global economy has started to slow.
GCC budget performance has also improved significantly this year on the back of higher oil production and prices, as well as the broader economic recovery in the region. We estimate the average GCC budget surplus will reach almost 8 per cent of GDP this year following seven years of deficits.
While government spending has increased slightly this year, governments have remained relatively prudent with their oil windfall, using budget surpluses to build up reserves, pay down debt and invest for the future.
The GCC countries have also provided financial support to other Mena countries that have faced current account shocks this year on the back of rising energy and food prices.
The outlook for the GCC in 2023 remains constructive. GDP growth will slow sharply as the 16 per cent increase in oil and gas GDP that we saw this year is unlikely to be repeated, and further production cuts from Opec+ pose a downside risk to growth in this sector in 2023.
Non-oil GDP is also expected to slow somewhat next year but is likely to remain relatively robust as governments continue to invest in strategic sectors and projects to diversify their economies. Our baseline forecast is for oil prices to remain above $100 a barrel next year, which will allow governments to maintain spending even as private investment slows.
However, there are headwinds to growth in the coming months amid a slowing global economy and a strong US dollar. The tightening in monetary policy that we have seen in 2022 will continue to weigh on global economic growth in 2023 as central banks focus on bringing inflation down.
Overall, we expect average GDP growth in the region to slow to 3.5 per cent in 2023, half our estimated growth rate for this year. In a world where several developed economies are forecast to be in recession, however, the GCC looks set to remain an outperformer in the global context next year.
Khatija Haque is chief economist and head of research at Emirates NBD
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Brief scores:
Manchester City 3
Bernardo Silva 16', Sterling 57', Gundogan 79'
Bournemouth 1
Wilson 44'
Man of the match: Leroy Sane (Manchester City)
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
You Were Never Really Here
Director: Lynne Ramsay
Starring: Joaquim Phoenix, Ekaterina Samsonov
Four stars
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Results
Ashraf Ghani 50.64 per cent
Abdullah Abdullah 39.52 per cent
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar 3.85 per cent
Rahmatullah Nabil 1.8 per cent
The%20specs%3A%202024%20Mercedes%20E200
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%20four-cyl%20turbo%20%2B%20mild%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E204hp%20at%205%2C800rpm%20%2B23hp%20hybrid%20boost%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E320Nm%20at%201%2C800rpm%20%2B205Nm%20hybrid%20boost%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E9-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7.3L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENovember%2FDecember%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh205%2C000%20(estimate)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
War
Director: Siddharth Anand
Cast: Hrithik Roshan, Tiger Shroff, Ashutosh Rana, Vaani Kapoor
Rating: Two out of five stars
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
UAE%20set%20for%20Scotland%20series
%3Cp%3EThe%20UAE%20will%20host%20Scotland%20for%20a%20three-match%20T20I%20series%20at%20the%20Dubai%20International%20Stadium%20next%20month.%3Cbr%3EThe%20two%20sides%20will%20start%20their%20Cricket%20World%20Cup%20League%202%20campaigns%20with%20a%20tri-series%20also%20involving%20Canada%2C%20starting%20on%20January%2029.%3Cbr%3EThat%20series%20will%20be%20followed%20by%20a%20bilateral%20T20%20series%20on%20March%2011%2C%2013%20and%2014.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
The Porpoise
By Mark Haddon
(Penguin Random House)
ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
%3Cp%3ECreator%3A%20Tima%20Shomali%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0Tara%20Abboud%2C%C2%A0Kira%20Yaghnam%2C%20Tara%20Atalla%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
Real Madrid 2 (Benzema 13', Kroos 28')
Barcelona 1 (Mingueza 60')
Red card: Casemiro (Real Madrid)
Cinco in numbers
Dh3.7 million
The estimated cost of Victoria Swarovski’s gem-encrusted Michael Cinco wedding gown
46
The number, in kilograms, that Swarovski’s wedding gown weighed.
1,000
The hours it took to create Cinco’s vermillion petal gown, as seen in his atelier [note, is the one he’s playing with in the corner of a room]
50
How many looks Cinco has created in a new collection to celebrate Ballet Philippines’ 50th birthday
3,000
The hours needed to create the butterfly gown worn by Aishwarya Rai to the 2018 Cannes Film Festival.
1.1 million
The number of followers that Michael Cinco’s Instagram account has garnered.
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
KINGDOM%20OF%20THE%20PLANET%20OF%20THE%20APES
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wes%20Ball%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Owen%20Teague%2C%20Freya%20Allen%2C%20Kevin%20Durand%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
The low down
Producers: Uniglobe Entertainment & Vision Films
Director: Namrata Singh Gujral
Cast: Rajkummar Rao, Nargis Fakhri, Bo Derek, Candy Clark
Rating: 2/5
HOW TO WATCH
Facebook: TheNationalNews
Twitter: @thenationalnews
Instagram: @thenationalnews.com
TikTok: @thenationalnews
UAE squad
Humaira Tasneem (c), Chamani Senevirathne (vc), Subha Srinivasan, NIsha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Esha Oza, Ishani Senevirathne, Heena Hotchandani, Keveesha Kumari, Judith Cleetus, Chavi Bhatt, Namita D’Souza.
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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UAE
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5
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Norway
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Canada
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The specs: 2018 BMW X2 and X3
Price, as tested: Dh255,150 (X2); Dh383,250 (X3)
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged inline four-cylinder (X2); 3.0-litre twin-turbo inline six-cylinder (X3)
Power 192hp @ 5,000rpm (X2); 355hp @ 5,500rpm (X3)
Torque: 280Nm @ 1,350rpm (X2); 500Nm @ 1,520rpm (X3)
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic (X2); Eight-speed automatic (X3)
Fuel consumption, combined: 5.7L / 100km (X2); 8.3L / 100km (X3)
INVESTMENT PLEDGES
Cartlow: $13.4m
Rabbitmart: $14m
Smileneo: $5.8m
Soum: $4m
imVentures: $100m
Plug and Play: $25m
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3EName%3A%20Tabby%3Cbr%3EFounded%3A%20August%202019%3B%20platform%20went%20live%20in%20February%202020%3Cbr%3EFounder%2FCEO%3A%20Hosam%20Arab%2C%20co-founder%3A%20Daniil%20Barkalov%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20Payments%3Cbr%3ESize%3A%2040-50%20employees%3Cbr%3EStage%3A%20Series%20A%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Arbor%20Ventures%2C%20Mubadala%20Capital%2C%20Wamda%20Capital%2C%20STV%2C%20Raed%20Ventures%2C%20Global%20Founders%20Capital%2C%20JIMCO%2C%20Global%20Ventures%2C%20Venture%20Souq%2C%20Outliers%20VC%2C%20MSA%20Capital%2C%20HOF%20and%20AB%20Accelerator.%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
NINE WINLESS GAMES
Arsenal 2-2 Crystal Palace (Oct 27, PL)
Liverpool 5-5 Arsenal (Oct 30, EFL)
Arsenal 1-1 Wolves (Nov 02, PL)
Vitoria Guimaraes 1-1 Arsenal (Nov 6, Europa)
Leicester 2-0 Arsenal (Nov 9, PL)
Arsenal 2-2 Southampton (Nov 23, PL)
Arsenal 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt (Nov 28, Europa)
Norwich 2-2 Arsenal (Dec 01, PL)
Arsenal 1-2 Brighton (Dec 05, PL)
