Three deals announced last week herald a profound reconfiguration of the global gas market. One sends gas to Asia, another to Europe and a third opens up Middle East gas. And the world’s greatest gas power of all is on the losing end.
On 21 November, QatarEnergy agreed an exceptionally long and large contract to send 4 million tonnes (5.4 billion cubic metres, bcm) of the chilled fuel, liquefied natural gas (LNG), annually to China’s Sinopec for 27 years.
Starting in 2026, this would run beyond mid-century, when the majority of the world economy is supposed to have reached net-zero carbon (China’s own target is 2060).
On Tuesday, ConocoPhillips and QatarEnergy concluded arrangements to ship two million tonnes of LNG to Germany a year over 15 years. And last Monday, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) announced it would combine its LNG and gas processing arms, and conduct an initial public offering of the new entity next year.
The essential undertone to these events combines three of this century’s leitmotifs: the rise of Asia, decarbonisation to combat climate change and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
China seeks to raise the share of gas in its energy mix from less than 9 per cent to 12 per cent by 2030. This would remain far below the global average. Nevertheless, the middle kingdom is the world’s third-largest gas consumer, not far behind Russia, the top producer. It also overtook Japan as the world’s biggest LNG importer last year.
Gas is an essential tool in cleaning up China’s polluted skies, and in reducing planet-warming emissions. Later, it too will have to be replaced with zero-emissions technologies — carbon capture and storage, nuclear and renewables — but for now it is the quickest way to make large carbon savings.
But China is in a race against Europe to secure gas. Russia is wrecking its own world-leading gas export business, cutting supplies to its western neighbours to near-zero, and including the physical destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines. Output was down about 20 per cent as of August, upon which Moscow stopped publishing figures.
World gas trade is thus reorienting from pipelines to LNG transported by tanker. Russia will try to shift some of its European sales to China, building more long and very costly pipes from Siberia. But its former exports to Europe are equivalent to China’s imports from all sources. Beijing will buy more from Moscow, but it will not replicate Europe’s disastrous over-dependence.
Europe itself has to replace up to 155 bcm of Russian gas imports, of which LNG will likely account for about 100 bcm. It will build another 50 bcm of new import capacity by the end of next year. Yet only 20 billion cubic metres of new LNG export capacity will come online worldwide next year. Before 2025, only the US will add any significant capacity, about 60 bcm between five projects.
The LNG market is intensely cyclical, even more than gas overall, or oil. Weak periods for new LNG capacity occurred in the early 2000s, in 2012-15, and now from 2020 until at least 2025.
Apart from a few smaller fast-track floating projects, liquefaction plants take at least three to four years to build. Taking a major project from concept through to operations sometimes requires decades.
Current high prices and the imperative of supplying Europe are encouraging supply in the medium term. QatarEnergy’s is the largest single global expansion under way, gaining 67 bcm by 2026-27. Adnoc’s new Fujairah plant is another important project with 13 bcm in a similar period.
African countries such as Mozambique — which recently started its first exports via a floating facility — Congo, Mauritania, Senegal and Tanzania will also play important roles, but mostly after 2026.
Regasification terminals, by contrast, which turn the liquid back into gas for distribution to customers, are quick and easy to construct. Historically, eighteen months would have been typical.
The floating import facility at Wilhelmshaven in notoriously bureaucratic Germany started operations on 15 November, taking just 194 days from the start of construction, a remarkable achievement.
Once built, plants run as close to full capacity as possible, to recover their high fixed costs. Conversely, import terminals serve market demand, and might not be needed at all at times. This makes spot prices extremely volatile — $1.85 per million British thermal units (mmbtu) in the depths of the pandemic in May 2020, $57 per mmbtu — more than $300 per barrel of oil equivalent — this August as customers scrambled to cover losses from Russia.
To avoid this, Asian buyers in particular have typically preferred long-term contracts based on oil prices, like the Sinopec deal. These cost more on average but avoid damaging price spikes. Doha has demanded such lengthy commitments, which Europe has found it hard to grant because of its decarbonisation timeline. The German deal could be a sign that is changing, at least until the mid-2030s.
So where does this place Adnoc’s gas reorganisation? The possibility to export more gas from the UAE rests on the country’s successful deployment of nuclear and solar power, and improved energy efficiency at home, freeing up fuel from electricity generation. It also relies on the development of new, technically challenging resources.
Adnoc has to ensure it stays competitive and gets to market while the window of Russian replacement stays open. But the rise in American domestic prices after a decade of torpor raises US export break-even levels and improves the prospects for others.
And offering private investors even a minority stake gives some access to the virtually closed world of Middle East gas — dominated by a handful of state companies and big international partners. Between China, Europe and Russia, this region can grasp a pivotal role in the new gas geography, just as it has so long held in oil.
Robin M. Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Profile Idealz
Company: Idealz
Founded: January 2018
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Size: (employees): 22
Investors: Co-founders and Venture Partners (9 per cent)
THE%20SWIMMERS
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Key products and UAE prices
iPhone XS
With a 5.8-inch screen, it will be an advance version of the iPhone X. It will be dual sim and comes with better battery life, a faster processor and better camera. A new gold colour will be available.
Price: Dh4,229
iPhone XS Max
It is expected to be a grander version of the iPhone X with a 6.5-inch screen; an inch bigger than the screen of the iPhone 8 Plus.
Price: Dh4,649
iPhone XR
A low-cost version of the iPhone X with a 6.1-inch screen, it is expected to attract mass attention. According to industry experts, it is likely to have aluminium edges instead of stainless steel.
Price: Dh3,179
Apple Watch Series 4
More comprehensive health device with edge-to-edge displays that are more than 30 per cent bigger than displays on current models.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The specs: Lamborghini Aventador SVJ
Price, base: Dh1,731,672
Engine: 6.5-litre V12
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 770hp @ 8,500rpm
Torque: 720Nm @ 6,750rpm
Fuel economy: 19.6L / 100km
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Zayed Sustainability Prize
RESULT
Leeds United 1 Manchester City 1
Leeds: Rodrigo (59')
Man City: Sterling (17')
Man of the Match: Rodrigo Moreno (Leeds)
Iran's dirty tricks to dodge sanctions
There’s increased scrutiny on the tricks being used to keep commodities flowing to and from blacklisted countries. Here’s a description of how some work.
1 Going Dark
A common method to transport Iranian oil with stealth is to turn off the Automatic Identification System, an electronic device that pinpoints a ship’s location. Known as going dark, a vessel flicks the switch before berthing and typically reappears days later, masking the location of its load or discharge port.
2. Ship-to-Ship Transfers
A first vessel will take its clandestine cargo away from the country in question before transferring it to a waiting ship, all of this happening out of sight. The vessels will then sail in different directions. For about a third of Iranian exports, more than one tanker typically handles a load before it’s delivered to its final destination, analysts say.
3. Fake Destinations
Signaling the wrong destination to load or unload is another technique. Ships that intend to take cargo from Iran may indicate their loading ports in sanction-free places like Iraq. Ships can keep changing their destinations and end up not berthing at any of them.
4. Rebranded Barrels
Iranian barrels can also be rebranded as oil from a nation free from sanctions such as Iraq. The countries share fields along their border and the crude has similar characteristics. Oil from these deposits can be trucked out to another port and documents forged to hide Iran as the origin.
* Bloomberg
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
Results:
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m | Winner: Eghel De Pine, Pat Cosgrave (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m | Winner: AF Sheaar, Szczepan Mazur, Saeed Al Shamsi
6pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan National Day Cup (PA) Group 3 Dh500,000 1,600m | Winner: RB Torch, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
6.30pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan National Day Cup (TB) Listed Dh380,000 1,600m | Winner: Forjatt, Chris Hayes, Nicholas Bachalard
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup for Private Owners Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 1,400m | Winner: Hawafez, Connor Beasley, Ridha ben Attia
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 80,000 1,600m | Winner: Qader, Richard Mullen, Jean de Roaulle
The years Ramadan fell in May
Zakat definitions
Zakat: an Arabic word meaning ‘to cleanse’ or ‘purification’.
Nisab: the minimum amount that a Muslim must have before being obliged to pay zakat. Traditionally, the nisab threshold was 87.48 grams of gold, or 612.36 grams of silver. The monetary value of the nisab therefore varies by current prices and currencies.
Zakat Al Mal: the ‘cleansing’ of wealth, as one of the five pillars of Islam; a spiritual duty for all Muslims meeting the ‘nisab’ wealth criteria in a lunar year, to pay 2.5 per cent of their wealth in alms to the deserving and needy.
Zakat Al Fitr: a donation to charity given during Ramadan, before Eid Al Fitr, in the form of food. Every adult Muslim who possesses food in excess of the needs of themselves and their family must pay two qadahs (an old measure just over 2 kilograms) of flour, wheat, barley or rice from each person in a household, as a minimum.
NBA Finals results
Game 1: Warriors 124, Cavaliers 114
Game 2: Warriors 122, Cavaliers 103
Game 3: Cavaliers 102, Warriors 110
Game 4: In Cleveland, Sunday (Monday morning UAE)
CONFIRMED%20LINE-UP
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Series information
Pakistan v Dubai
First Test, Dubai International Stadium
Sun Oct 6 to Thu Oct 11
Second Test, Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Tue Oct 16 to Sat Oct 20
Play starts at 10am each day
Teams
Pakistan
1 Mohammed Hafeez, 2 Imam-ul-Haq, 3 Azhar Ali, 4 Asad Shafiq, 5 Haris Sohail, 6 Babar Azam, 7 Sarfraz Ahmed, 8 Bilal Asif, 9 Yasir Shah, 10, Mohammed Abbas, 11 Wahab Riaz or Mir Hamza
Australia
1 Usman Khawaja, 2 Aaron Finch, 3 Shaun Marsh, 4 Mitchell Marsh, 5 Travis Head, 6 Marnus Labuschagne, 7 Tim Paine, 8 Mitchell Starc, 9 Peter Siddle, 10 Nathan Lyon, 11 Jon Holland
Stage 3 results
1 Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott 4:42:33
2 Tadej Pocagar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:03
3 Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana 0:01:30
4 David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ
5 Rafal Majka (POL) Bora-Hansgrohe
6 Diego Ulissi (ITA) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:56
General Classification after Stage 3:
1 Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott 12:30:02
2 Tadej Pocagar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:07
3 Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana 0:01:35
4 David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 0:01:40
5 Rafal Majka (POL) Bora-Hansgrohe
6 Wilco Kelderman (NED) Team Sunweb) 0:02:06
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
RESULTS
Main card
Bantamweight 56.4kg: Mehdi Eljamari (MAR) beat Abrorbek Madiminbekov (UZB), Split points decision
Super heavyweight 94 kg: Adnan Mohammad (IRN) beat Mohammed Ajaraam (MAR), Split points decision
Lightweight 60kg: Zakaria Eljamari (UAE) beat Faridoon Alik Zai (AFG), RSC round 3
Light heavyweight 81.4kg: Taha Marrouni (MAR) beat Mahmood Amin (EGY), Unanimous points decision
Light welterweight 64.5kg: Siyovush Gulmamadov (TJK) beat Nouredine Samir (UAE), Unanimous points decision
Light heavyweight 81.4kg: Ilyass Habibali (UAE) beat Haroun Baka (ALG), KO second round
Concrete and Gold
Foo Fighters
RCA records
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company profile
Company name: Suraasa
Started: 2018
Founders: Rishabh Khanna, Ankit Khanna and Sahil Makker
Based: India, UAE and the UK
Industry: EdTech
Initial investment: More than $200,000 in seed funding
ANALYSTS’ TOP PICKS OF SAUDI BANKS IN 2019
Analyst: Aqib Mehboob of Saudi Fransi Capital
Top pick: National Commercial Bank
Reason: It will be at the forefront of project financing for government-led projects
Analyst: Shabbir Malik of EFG-Hermes
Top pick: Al Rajhi Bank
Reason: Defensive balance sheet, well positioned in retail segment and positively geared for rising rates
Analyst: Chiradeep Ghosh of Sico Bank
Top pick: Arab National Bank
Reason: Attractive valuation and good growth potential in terms of both balance sheet and dividends
UAE SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Ali Khaseif, Fahad Al Dhanhani, Mohammed Al Shamsi, Adel Al Hosani
Defenders: Bandar Al Ahbabi, Shaheen Abdulrahman, Walid Abbas, Mahmoud Khamis, Mohammed Barghash, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Hassan Al Mahrami, Yousef Jaber, Mohammed Al Attas
Midfielders: Ali Salmeen, Abdullah Ramadan, Abdullah Al Naqbi, Majed Hassan, Abdullah Hamad, Khalfan Mubarak, Khalil Al Hammadi, Tahnoun Al Zaabi, Harib Abdallah, Mohammed Jumah
Forwards: Fabio De Lima, Caio Canedo, Ali Saleh, Ali Mabkhout, Sebastian Tagliabue
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Key changes
Commission caps
For life insurance products with a savings component, Peter Hodgins of Clyde & Co said different caps apply to the saving and protection elements:
• For the saving component, a cap of 4.5 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 90 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term).
• On the protection component, there is a cap of 10 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 160 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term).
• Indemnity commission, the amount of commission that can be advanced to a product salesperson, can be 50 per cent of the annualised premium for the first year or 50 per cent of the total commissions on the policy calculated.
• The remaining commission after deduction of the indemnity commission is paid equally over the premium payment term.
• For pure protection products, which only offer a life insurance component, the maximum commission will be 10 per cent of the annualised premium multiplied by the length of the policy in years.
Disclosure
Customers must now be provided with a full illustration of the product they are buying to ensure they understand the potential returns on savings products as well as the effects of any charges. There is also a “free-look” period of 30 days, where insurers must provide a full refund if the buyer wishes to cancel the policy.
“The illustration should provide for at least two scenarios to illustrate the performance of the product,” said Mr Hodgins. “All illustrations are required to be signed by the customer.”
Another illustration must outline surrender charges to ensure they understand the costs of exiting a fixed-term product early.
Illustrations must also be kept updatedand insurers must provide information on the top five investment funds available annually, including at least five years' performance data.
“This may be segregated based on the risk appetite of the customer (in which case, the top five funds for each segment must be provided),” said Mr Hodgins.
Product providers must also disclose the ratio of protection benefit to savings benefits. If a protection benefit ratio is less than 10 per cent "the product must carry a warning stating that it has limited or no protection benefit" Mr Hodgins added.
