The famous frigid British winter of 1946-1947, coming just after an earlier European war, brought coal shortages, electricity blackouts, frozen crops and farm animals, and more rationing. When the snow melted in March, floods brought further misery. The pound was devalued, and the Labour Party lost 78 seats in the next election. Today, Europe’s economy, energy security and even foreign policy again hinges on the weather.
It has been a tough couple of years for energy systems against weather. Early last year, Texas was struck by a freak ice-storm which froze gas, coal and nuclear power stations and wind turbines. California has suffered a string of blackouts as forest fires damage power lines or force their shutdown as a precaution.
A drought last year cut South America’s hydropower, forcing it to import more liquefied natural gas (LNG). Northern Europe experienced one of the least windy years in the last four decades, limiting wind power output. Together these events set the stage for Russia to tighten the European gas market ahead of this year’s shortages and huge run-up in prices.
An intense heatwave hit India and Pakistan in April to May this year. Shortages of power generation and coal led to India’s worst electricity shortages for six years. Then last month’s massive floods in Pakistan damaged gas pipelines, electricity cables and dams, worsening an existing power crisis.
This summer, droughts and heatwaves across the western US, Europe, Iran and China saw air-conditioning requirements soar, just as output from hydroelectric dams and nuclear plants — which need water for cooling — slumped. Norway’s hydropower is a critical balancing factor for neighbouring countries, but its reservoirs reached their lowest levels for a quarter-century and Oslo had to consider limiting exports. Low water in the Rhine and other major rivers interrupted transport of coal and oil by barge.
With the concentration of LNG export plants and oil refineries along the Gulf of Mexico coast, the US is lucky this hurricane season has been quiet. The worst ones, notably last month’s Hurricane Ian, battered the Caribbean and Florida rather than energy infrastructure.
Two phenomena link many of these weather disasters: the long-term backdrop of climate change, meaning a rapidly-heating planet with extreme summer temperatures; and La Nina. This meteorological pattern brings cool water to the surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is the converse of El Nino, which alternates with it on a two to seven-year cycle, interspersed with neutral periods.
La Nina is linked to drought in the western US, Brazil and Argentina, east Africa and eastern China, but wet conditions across south-east Asia and the eastern US. This is the third La Nina year in a row, rare though not unprecedented.
With Russian gas supplies all but cut off, Europe needs a mild winter to avoid burning through its fuel storage. Roughly 40 per cent of European gas demand is in buildings — mostly, heating — and 30 per cent for electricity generation.
The EU’s Copernicus service forecasts this winter in Europe will be warmer than usual, but that there could be a cold spell in December. La Nina may be good news for Europe overall: it tends to bring warm, wet westerly winter winds, boosting renewable output and refilling parched reservoirs and rivers. Last winter was rather mild, crucially for avoiding a worse gas crisis just before the outbreak of war.
But La Nina can also increase the likelihood of a breakdown of the polar vortex, allowing chilly Arctic air to rush southwards. A blocked high-pressure zone over north-west Europe would bring clear skies with little wind and freezing temperatures — the worst combination for the energy system.
Meanwhile, the US east coast is also expected to be warmer than usual. That moves the focus to the globe’s third key area of winter fuel demand: north-east Asia, a big importer of LNG and oil. China has been reselling LNG surplus cargoes to Europe, as Covid lockdowns have reduced demand, but last week the government told its gas companies to stop exports to ensure sufficient domestic supplies.
Here, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggests November-December temperatures will be about average, and January and February above average.
These weather factors remain highly uncertain: other forecasters see a slightly colder winter than average. We should have a clearer picture for this winter in November when key wind patterns become established.
Europe has refilled most of its gas storage ahead of schedule. Gas prices have dropped sharply from stratospheric records and are only a little above last year’s levels. But a cold winter would see stocks depleted by March or April. If icy conditions do arrive in December, it will take nerve from policymakers and gas companies to hold on in the reasonable expectation of a warmer start to next year.
Then with inventories depleted and Russian gas largely unavailable for a full year, the continent will face the challenging task of again refilling storage before November 2023. That will in turn depend critically on the levels of wind and water, and whether a repeat of the heatwave pushes up electricity needs and dents nuclear output. An eventual switch into El Nino conditions may bring colder winter weather to northern Europe, although the phenomenon’s exact impact on the continent is unclear.
Every new data point and weather forecast will swing gas and electricity prices. Even a milder cold snap than 1947 could be disastrous with the icicle-thin margins Europe has to cope with. The eastern Pacific may be a long way off, but the North Atlantic alliance will be watching it intently.
Robin M Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Zayed Sustainability Prize
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20NOTHING%20PHONE%20(2)
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How Filipinos in the UAE invest
A recent survey of 10,000 Filipino expatriates in the UAE found that 82 per cent have plans to invest, primarily in property. This is significantly higher than the 2014 poll showing only two out of 10 Filipinos planned to invest.
Fifty-five percent said they plan to invest in property, according to the poll conducted by the New Perspective Media Group, organiser of the Philippine Property and Investment Exhibition. Acquiring a franchised business or starting up a small business was preferred by 25 per cent and 15 per cent said they will invest in mutual funds. The rest said they are keen to invest in insurance (3 per cent) and gold (2 per cent).
Of the 5,500 respondents who preferred property as their primary investment, 54 per cent said they plan to make the purchase within the next year. Manila was the top location, preferred by 53 per cent.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
TYPES%20OF%20ONLINE%20GIG%20WORK
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDesign%2C%20multimedia%20and%20creative%20work%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELogo%20design%2C%20website%20design%2C%20visualisations%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBusiness%20and%20professional%20management%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELegal%20or%20management%20consulting%2C%20architecture%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBusiness%20and%20professional%20support%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EResearch%20support%2C%20proofreading%2C%20bookkeeping%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESales%20and%20marketing%20support%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESearch%20engine%20optimisation%2C%20social%20media%20marketing%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EData%20entry%2C%20administrative%2C%20and%20clerical%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EData%20entry%20tasks%2C%20virtual%20assistants%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIT%2C%20software%20development%20and%20tech%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EData%20analyst%2C%20back-end%20or%20front-end%20developers%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWriting%20and%20translation%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EContent%20writing%2C%20ghost%20writing%2C%20translation%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EOnline%20microtasks%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EImage%20tagging%2C%20surveys%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%20World%20Bank%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Martin Sabbagh profile
Job: CEO JCDecaux Middle East
In the role: Since January 2015
Lives: In the UAE
Background: M&A, investment banking
Studied: Corporate finance
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The Written World: How Literature Shaped History
Martin Puchner
Granta
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
If you go
The flights
There are various ways of getting to the southern Serengeti in Tanzania from the UAE. The exact route and airstrip depends on your overall trip itinerary and which camp you’re staying at.
Flydubai flies direct from Dubai to Kilimanjaro International Airport from Dh1,350 return, including taxes; this can be followed by a short flight from Kilimanjaro to the Serengeti with Coastal Aviation from about US$700 (Dh2,500) return, including taxes. Kenya Airways, Emirates and Etihad offer flights via Nairobi or Dar es Salaam.
Match info
Deccan Gladiators 87-8
Asif Khan 25, Dwayne Bravo 2-16
Maratha Arabians 89-2
Chadwick Walton 51 not out
Arabians won the final by eight wickets
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Company%20Profile
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At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Saudi Cup race day
Schedule in UAE time
5pm: Mohamed Yousuf Naghi Motors Cup (Turf), 5.35pm: 1351 Cup (T), 6.10pm: Longines Turf Handicap (T), 6.45pm: Obaiya Arabian Classic for Purebred Arabians (Dirt), 7.30pm: Jockey Club Handicap (D), 8.10pm: Samba Saudi Derby (D), 8.50pm: Saudia Sprint (D), 9.40pm: Saudi Cup (D)
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
Getting there
The flights
Flydubai operates up to seven flights a week to Helsinki. Return fares to Helsinki from Dubai start from Dh1,545 in Economy and Dh7,560 in Business Class.
The stay
Golden Crown Igloos in Levi offer stays from Dh1,215 per person per night for a superior igloo; www.leviniglut.net
Panorama Hotel in Levi is conveniently located at the top of Levi fell, a short walk from the gondola. Stays start from Dh292 per night based on two people sharing; www. golevi.fi/en/accommodation/hotel-levi-panorama
Arctic Treehouse Hotel in Rovaniemi offers stays from Dh1,379 per night based on two people sharing; www.arctictreehousehotel.com
RESULTS
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THE SPECS
Engine: 4.0L twin-turbo V8
Gearbox: eight-speed automatic
Power: 571hp at 6,000rpm
Torque: 800Nm from 2,000-4,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 11.4L/100km
Price, base: from Dh571,000
On sale: this week
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20M3%20MACBOOK%20AIR%20(13%22)
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Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
The%20specs
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Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The%20specs
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Which honey takes your fancy?
Al Ghaf Honey
The Al Ghaf tree is a local desert tree which bears the harsh summers with drought and high temperatures. From the rich flowers, bees that pollinate this tree can produce delicious red colour honey in June and July each year
Sidr Honey
The Sidr tree is an evergreen tree with long and strong forked branches. The blossom from this tree is called Yabyab, which provides rich food for bees to produce honey in October and November. This honey is the most expensive, but tastiest
Samar Honey
The Samar tree trunk, leaves and blossom contains Barm which is the secret of healing. You can enjoy the best types of honey from this tree every year in May and June. It is an historical witness to the life of the Emirati nation which represents the harsh desert and mountain environments
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
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