The remarkable Ukrainian advances against Russian forces in the past few days could be a turning point in the war. Away from the military conflict, another landscape is changing: the energy economy. Its outcome will profoundly transform both Europe and Russia.
It remains to be seen how much more territory Kyiv will regain; whether it will move towards occupied Crimea and the strategic Azov Sea coast, or whether Russian resistance will stiffen.
It seems unlikely that any settlement will be reached to revive significant shipments of Russian gas to Europe over the next year — or that the Europeans will again return to complacency. The 13-day halt in supplies through Ukraine in 2009 was the first warning; the annexation of Crimea in 2014 was the second.
But it was only after February 24 this year that Europe moved decisively to break its dependence on gas from Russia — and even that has been enforced more by Gazprom. Supplies through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany have been halted indefinitely until sanctions are lifted. Flows through Poland have been at zero for months; a little continues through Ukraine, surprisingly enough.
Europe’s response will have three stages. This winter is the most critical. Germany and the UK, among others, have prepared huge financial packages to cushion the shock to households and businesses. Almost every EU member has already reached the target of filling 80 per cent storage by November. Two new floating terminals to import liquefied natural gas have arrived in the Netherlands, and Germany should start three more shortly. Beyond this, Europeans should pray for a warmer winter.
The second phase comes over the next three years. Little new LNG production will start up worldwide over this period. Perhaps a little more gas will arrive by pipeline in Europe from North Africa, the Middle East and the Caspian.
As such, the wholesale replacement of Russian gas will require consuming less both in Europe and elsewhere. The deployment of renewable electricity will be hugely accelerated, but much energy-intensive industry in Europe will close, perhaps for ever, to be relocated to areas with cheaper gas. Homes will be renovated and gas boilers replaced by electrically-driven heat pumps, so that gas used in heating drops.
Asian countries that hoped to use LNG to end energy shortages and clear, smoggy skies will have to keep burning coal, or go without.
From 2026 onwards, major new LNG projects in Qatar, the UAE, the US, Australia, Canada and Mozambique should start up. Large-scale exports of hydrogen from the Middle East and North Africa could begin to replace gas in Europe. Nuclear power may be revived.
Perhaps some Russian gas will again flow west, in a political situation situation that is radically different from the present. However, it is hard to imagine Brussels or Berlin will again want 40 per cent of their imports to come from Siberia again. Moscow’s standard response has been plans to reorient to China, which already buys about 10 per cent of its gas exports (Europe, including Turkey, taking the lion’s share).
But this year’s episode will make Beijing too wary of over-reliance on its western neighbour. Russia’s sales to Europe are the equivalent of all China’s imports — which are currently sensibly diversified between Russia, central Asia and LNG into its eastern littoral.
China is in a position to strike a hard bargain. Gazprom's eastern sales were already only half as profitable as those to Europe and require massive, costly and long-distance pipelines through harsh terrain. Without lucrative international contracts, Gazprom’s ability to subsidise gas for its home market will be undercut.
In oil, the G7’s concept of capping prices paid for Russian oil is questionable. But sanctions and the coming EU ban will limit Russian exports. A lack of technology and finance will cut production in the longer term, as declines of mature fields accelerate and development of the next generation of remote, costly Russian fields in East Siberia and the Arctic offshore is stymied. Even just before the war and Covid-19 pandemic, a study from two Moscow energy institutes foresaw a 15 per cent drop in Russian output by 2040, accompanied by a near-doubling of average production costs.
Opec wanted for decades to bring Russia into its system and the wider grouping has proved successful at managing supply and demand dynamics. However, with Russia producing well below its assigned level, its impact on short-term market management is more limited.
Climate policy was already an ever-growing danger to Russia’s oil, gas and coal exports up to 2050. The war ended any chance of replacing them with hydrogen sales to Europe — an area where Russia could have enjoyed a competitive advantage.
Apart from hydropower, its use of renewable energy is feeble — representing only 0.5 per cent of its electricity, and half that of much smaller Ukraine. China, Japan, Europe and the US dominate the research and manufacturing of new energy systems, from solar cells to advanced batteries and electric vehicles. One area of success, nuclear reactor exports by Rosatom, has had its prospects altered.
Reorientation from reliance on exporting fossil fuels and minerals will be lengthy and hard. But a transformed post-conflict energy model for Russia could be better for itself and its neighbours.
Robin M Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
10 tips for entry-level job seekers
- Have an up-to-date, professional LinkedIn profile. If you don’t have a LinkedIn account, set one up today. Avoid poor-quality profile pictures with distracting backgrounds. Include a professional summary and begin to grow your network.
- Keep track of the job trends in your sector through the news. Apply for job alerts at your dream organisations and the types of jobs you want – LinkedIn uses AI to share similar relevant jobs based on your selections.
- Double check that you’ve highlighted relevant skills on your resume and LinkedIn profile.
- For most entry-level jobs, your resume will first be filtered by an applicant tracking system for keywords. Look closely at the description of the job you are applying for and mirror the language as much as possible (while being honest and accurate about your skills and experience).
- Keep your CV professional and in a simple format – make sure you tailor your cover letter and application to the company and role.
- Go online and look for details on job specifications for your target position. Make a list of skills required and set yourself some learning goals to tick off all the necessary skills one by one.
- Don’t be afraid to reach outside your immediate friends and family to other acquaintances and let them know you are looking for new opportunities.
- Make sure you’ve set your LinkedIn profile to signal that you are “open to opportunities”. Also be sure to use LinkedIn to search for people who are still actively hiring by searching for those that have the headline “I’m hiring” or “We’re hiring” in their profile.
- Prepare for online interviews using mock interview tools. Even before landing interviews, it can be useful to start practising.
- Be professional and patient. Always be professional with whoever you are interacting with throughout your search process, this will be remembered. You need to be patient, dedicated and not give up on your search. Candidates need to make sure they are following up appropriately for roles they have applied.
Arda Atalay, head of Mena private sector at LinkedIn Talent Solutions, Rudy Bier, managing partner of Kinetic Business Solutions and Ben Kinerman Daltrey, co-founder of KinFitz
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Brief scoreline:
Manchester United 0
Manchester City 2
Bernardo Silva 54', Sane 66'
MATCH INFO
BRIGHTON 0
MANCHESTER UNITED 3
McTominay 44'
Mata 73'
Pogba 80'
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
more from Janine di Giovanni
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
MATCH INFO
Fulham 0
Aston Villa 3 (Grealish 4', Hourihane 15', Mings 48')
Man of the match: Jack Grealish (Aston Villa)
JAPANESE GRAND PRIX INFO
Schedule (All times UAE)
First practice: Friday, 5-6.30am
Second practice: Friday, 9-10.30am
Third practice: Saturday, 7-8am
Qualifying: Saturday, 10-11am
Race: Sunday, 9am-midday
Race venue: Suzuka International Racing Course
Circuit Length: 5.807km
Number of Laps: 53
Watch live: beIN Sports HD
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Power: 110 horsepower
Torque: 147Nm
Price: From Dh59,700
On sale: now
Tank warfare
Lt Gen Erik Petersen, deputy chief of programs, US Army, has argued it took a “three decade holiday” on modernising tanks.
“There clearly remains a significant armoured heavy ground manoeuvre threat in this world and maintaining a world class armoured force is absolutely vital,” the general said in London last week.
“We are developing next generation capabilities to compete with and deter adversaries to prevent opportunism or miscalculation, and, if necessary, defeat any foe decisively.”
German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
THURSDAY'S FIXTURES
4pm Maratha Arabians v Northern Warriors
6.15pm Deccan Gladiators v Pune Devils
8.30pm Delhi Bulls v Bangla Tigers
Al Jazira's foreign quartet for 2017/18
Romarinho, Brazil
Lassana Diarra, France
Sardor Rashidov, Uzbekistan
Mbark Boussoufa, Morocco
PROFILE OF HALAN
Started: November 2017
Founders: Mounir Nakhla, Ahmed Mohsen and Mohamed Aboulnaga
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport and logistics
Size: 150 employees
Investment: approximately $8 million
Investors include: Singapore’s Battery Road Digital Holdings, Egypt’s Algebra Ventures, Uber co-founder and former CTO Oscar Salazar
Results
STAGE
1 . Filippo Ganna (Ineos) - 0:13:56
2. Stefan Bissegger (Education-Nippo) - 0:00:14
3. Mikkel Bjerg (UAE Team Emirates) - 0:00:21
4. Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) - 0:00:24
5. Luis Leon Sanchez (Astana) - 0:00:30
GENERAL CLASSIFICATION
1. Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) - 4:00:05
2. Joao Almeida (QuickStep) - 0:00:05
3. Mattia Cattaneo (QuickStep) - 0:00:18
4. Chris Harper (Jumbo-Visma) - 0:00:33
5. Adam Yates (Ineos) - 0:00:39
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
AIR
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBen%20Affleck%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMatt%20Damon%2C%20Jason%20Bateman%2C%20Ben%20Affleck%2C%20Viola%20Davis%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Bundesliga fixtures
Saturday, May 16 (kick-offs UAE time)
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke (4.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Freiburg (4.30pm)
Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin (4.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn (4.30pm)
Augsburg v Wolfsburg (4.30pm)
Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Monchengladbach (7.30pm)
Sunday, May 17
Cologne v Mainz (4.30pm),
Union Berlin v Bayern Munich (7pm)
Monday, May 18
Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen (9.30pm)
Golden Shoe top five (as of March 1):
Harry Kane, Tottenham, Premier League, 24 goals, 48 points
Edinson Cavani, PSG, Ligue 1, 24 goals, 48 points
Ciro Immobile, Lazio, Serie A, 23 goals, 46 points
Mohamed Salah, Liverpool, Premier League, 23 goals, 46 points
Lionel Messi, Barcelona, La Liga, 22 goals, 44 points
FIXTURES
All kick-off times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Friday
Sevilla v Levante (midnight)
Saturday
Athletic Bilbao v Real Sociedad (7.15pm)
Eibar v Valencia (9.30pm)
Atletico Madrid v Alaves (11.45pm)
Sunday
Girona v Getafe (3pm)
Celta Vigo v Villarreal (7.15pm)
Las Palmas v Espanyol (9.30pm)
Barcelona v Deportivo la Coruna (11.45pm)
Monday
Malaga v Real Betis (midnight)
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.3-litre%204cyl%20turbo%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E299hp%20at%205%2C500rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E420Nm%20at%202%2C750rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E10-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E12.4L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh157%2C395%20(XLS)%3B%20Dh199%2C395%20(Limited)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%20synchronous%20electric%20motors%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E660hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C100Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20automatic%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETouring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E488km-560km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh850%2C000%20(estimate)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EOctober%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company Profile:
Name: The Protein Bakeshop
Date of start: 2013
Founders: Rashi Chowdhary and Saad Umerani
Based: Dubai
Size, number of employees: 12
Funding/investors: $400,000 (2018)
