After a brief respite in late July and early August, the US dollar has continued to march higher, reaching its strongest level against a basket of its trading partner currencies in two decades.
While the Japanese yen has been the main casualty of this dollar strength, the euro breached the psychological barrier of parity with the greenback last month, the first time this has happened since 2002.
There are two main reasons for the dollar’s strength this year: interest rate differentials and the growth outlook. On interest rates, the Federal Reserve has been far more aggressive in raising interest rates than other developed market central banks, hiking by 225 basis points this year (to 2.5 per cent) compared with the European Central Bank’s 50 bps (to zero) and the Bank of England’s 150 bps (to 1.75 per cent).
Since Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium in late August, the market has repriced expectations for US rates as Mr Powell and several Fed presidents have reiterated the Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation back down to the target 2 per cent level and indicating that this will require monetary policy to remain tight “for some time”.
This has brought the market more in line with our own forecasts for the Fed Funds rate to rise to 4 per cent by the end of this year, which has contributed to the equity market selloff over the past week as well as the rebound in the dollar.
With respect to the growth outlook, recent data suggests the Fed has scope to tighten monetary policy further as the economy appears to be in good shape despite the rate hikes.
Survey data shows the US manufacturing sector expanded again in August, and the labour market also remains very strong with 315,000 jobs added in August, even as the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 3.7 per cent in August.
In contrast, the outlook for the eurozone economy, and that of the UK, is relatively bleak.
Manufacturing purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) were in contraction territory in August and for the eurozone, the threat of energy shortages over the winter months adds to downside risks for growth. Inflation in the eurozone reached a new all-time high of 9.1 per cent in August, according to preliminary estimates.
As a result, ECB policy makers have sounded increasingly hawkish and are likely to raise rates by at least 50 bps at their meeting this week, with a high probability of a 75 bps raise and additional increases probable in October. However, the interest rate differential with the US will remain wide, keeping the euro under pressure.
While tighter monetary policy will curb demand driven inflationary pressures, it also increases recession risks in the Eurozone, particularly if it is coupled with energy rationing for industry over the winter.
The British pound has also weakened against the dollar in recent weeks, falling to levels last seen at the depth of the pandemic in March 2020.
There has been increased talk of sterling reaching parity with the dollar in the coming months as the outlook for the UK economy continues to deteriorate. Households will face an 80 per cent increase in their energy costs from October, with further price increases likely when the energy price cap is adjusted again in January 2023, pushing already high inflation ever higher.
Indeed, inflation expectations in the UK have continued to drift higher and firms now expect wage growth of 5.5 per cent in the year ahead, well above what is consistent with the BoE’s 2 per cent target.
All of this suggests the Bank of England is likely to raise the bank rate by 50 bps again in September, even as survey data points to declining manufacturing output and the British Chamber of Commerce believes the economy is already in recession.
Uncertainty over fiscal policy under a new British prime minister has probably also contributed to the recent sell-off in sterling.
Liz Truss, the favourite to win the leadership contest, has campaigned on a platform of tax cuts that would result in a wider budget deficit but without the benefit of targeting the relief to lower income households, which are most affected by higher utility costs.
Lower taxes and increased spending could further fuel inflation, increasing pressure on the Bank of England rates to raise rates further and faster than might otherwise have been the case.
The swap market is now pricing in a further percentage point in rate hikes by the Bank of England in the fourth quarter, which would take the Bank Rate to 3.5 per cent by the end of this year, raising borrowing costs for households. Gilt yields have also increased to the highest levels in almost a decade, raising the cost of government borrowing to finance a bigger fiscal deficit.
Markets have been further unsettled by Mrs Truss’s desire to review the Bank of England’s mandate and her stance on the Northern Ireland Protocol, which could further disrupt trade with the EU.
It is probable that these proposed policies are moderated or scrapped once a new prime minister and Cabinet is in place, which could provide some support to the pound in the near term. However, the challenges facing the UK economy remain significant and the risks to sterling remain on the downside for now.
Khatija Haque is chief economist and head of research at Emirates NBD.
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%20electric%20motors%20with%20102kW%20battery%20pack%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E570hp%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20890Nm%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERange%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Up%20to%20428km%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh1%2C700%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Power: 480hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 570Nm from 2,300-5,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Fuel consumption: 10.4L/100km
Price: from Dh547,600
On sale: now
OPINIONS ON PALESTINE & ISRAEL
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
EMERGENCY PHONE NUMBERS
Estijaba – 8001717 – number to call to request coronavirus testing
Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111
Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre
Emirates airline – 600555555
Etihad Airways – 600555666
Ambulance – 998
Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Scores in brief:
Boost Defenders 205-5 in 20 overs
(Colin Ingram 84 not out, Cameron Delport 36, William Somerville 2-28)
bt Auckland Aces 170 for 5 in 20 overs
(Rob O’Donnell 67 not out, Kyle Abbott 3-21).
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Avengers: Endgame
Directors: Anthony Russo, Joe Russo
Starring: Robert Downey Jr, Chris Evans, Scarlett Johansson, Chris Hemsworth, Josh Brolin
4/5 stars
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Sweet%20Tooth
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJim%20Mickle%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EChristian%20Convery%2C%20Nonso%20Anozie%2C%20Adeel%20Akhtar%2C%20Stefania%20LaVie%20Owen%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The five pillars of Islam
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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UAE%20medallists%20at%20Asian%20Games%202023
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Lewis Hamilton in 2018
Australia 2nd; Bahrain 3rd; China 4th; Azerbaijan 1st; Spain 1st; Monaco 3rd; Canada 5th; France 1st; Austria DNF; Britain 2nd; Germany 1st; Hungary 1st; Belgium 2nd; Italy 1st; Singapore 1st; Russia 1st; Japan 1st; United States 3rd; Mexico 4th
Other ways to buy used products in the UAE
UAE insurance firm Al Wathba National Insurance Company (AWNIC) last year launched an e-commerce website with a facility enabling users to buy car wrecks.
Bidders and potential buyers register on the online salvage car auction portal to view vehicles, review condition reports, or arrange physical surveys, and then start bidding for motors they plan to restore or harvest for parts.
Physical salvage car auctions are a common method for insurers around the world to move on heavily damaged vehicles, but AWNIC is one of the few UAE insurers to offer such services online.
For cars and less sizeable items such as bicycles and furniture, Dubizzle is arguably the best-known marketplace for pre-loved.
Founded in 2005, in recent years it has been joined by a plethora of Facebook community pages for shifting used goods, including Abu Dhabi Marketplace, Flea Market UAE and Arabian Ranches Souq Market while sites such as The Luxury Closet and Riot deal largely in second-hand fashion.
At the high-end of the pre-used spectrum, resellers such as Timepiece360.ae, WatchBox Middle East and Watches Market Dubai deal in authenticated second-hand luxury timepieces from brands such as Rolex, Hublot and Tag Heuer, with a warranty.
Challenge Cup result:
1. UAE 3 faults
2. Ireland 9 faults
3. Brazil 11 faults
4. Spain 15 faults
5. Great Britain 17 faults
6. New Zealand 20 faults
7. Italy 26 faults
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
NBA FINALS SO FAR
(Toronto lead 3-2 in best-of-seven series)
Game 1 Raptors 118 Warriors 109
Game 2 Raptors 104 Warriors 109
Game 3 Warriors 109 Raptors 123
Game 4 Warriors 92 Raptors 105
Game 5 Raptors 105 Warriors 106
Game 6 Thursday, at Oakland
Game 7 Sunday, at Toronto (if needed)
Sly%20Cooper%20and%20the%20Thievius%20Raccoonus
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sucker%20Punch%20Productions%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sony%20Computer%20Entertainment%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsole%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PlayStation%202%20to%205%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
Graduated from the American University of Sharjah
She is the eldest of three brothers and two sisters
Has helped solve 15 cases of electric shocks
Enjoys travelling, reading and horse riding
Champion%20v%20Champion%20(PFL%20v%20Bellator)
%3Cp%3EHeavyweight%3A%20Renan%20Ferreira%20v%20Ryan%20Bader%20%3Cbr%3EMiddleweight%3A%20Impa%20Kasanganay%20v%20Johnny%20Eblen%3Cbr%3EFeatherweight%3A%20Jesus%20Pinedo%20v%20Patricio%20Pitbull%3Cbr%3ECatchweight%3A%20Ray%20Cooper%20III%20v%20Jason%20Jackson%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EShowcase%20Bouts%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EHeavyweight%3A%20Bruno%20Cappelozza%20(former%20PFL%20World%20champ)%20v%20Vadim%20Nemkov%20(former%20Bellator%20champ)%3Cbr%3ELight%20Heavyweight%3A%20Thiago%20Santos%20(PFL%20title%20contender)%20v%20Yoel%20Romero%20(Bellator%20title%20contender)%3Cbr%3ELightweight%3A%20Clay%20Collard%20(PFL%20title%20contender)%20v%20AJ%20McKee%20(former%20Bellator%20champ)%3Cbr%3EFeatherweight%3A%20Gabriel%20Braga%20(PFL%20title%20contender)%20v%20Aaron%20Pico%20(Bellator%20title%20contender)%3Cbr%3ELightweight%3A%20Biaggio%20Ali%20Walsh%20(pro%20debut)%20v%20Emmanuel%20Palacios%20(pro%20debut)%3Cbr%3EWomen%E2%80%99s%20Lightweight%3A%20Claressa%20Shields%20v%20Kelsey%20DeSantis%3Cbr%3EFeatherweight%3A%20Abdullah%20Al%20Qahtani%20v%20Edukondal%20Rao%3Cbr%3EAmateur%20Flyweight%3A%20Malik%20Basahel%20v%20Vinicius%20Pereira%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
TEACHERS' PAY - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues
UAE-based players
Goodlands Riders: Jamshaid Butt, Ali Abid, JD Mahesh, Vibhor Shahi, Faizan Asif, Nadeem Rahim
Rose Hill Warriors: Faraz Sheikh, Ashok Kumar, Thabreez Ali, Janaka Chathuranga, Muzammil Afridi, Ameer Hamza
The%20specs
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Zayed Sustainability Prize
EA%20Sports%20FC%2024
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THE%20FLASH
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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Kandahar%20
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Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Rajasthan Royals 153-5 (17.5 ov)
Delhi Daredevils 60-4 (6 ov)
Rajasthan won by 10 runs (D/L method)