The Leningrad symphony of Soviet composer Dmitri Shostakovich captures the relentlessly advancing threat of the Nazi invaders to the city with a quiet theme that grows ever louder and harsher.
In the same way, while measured debate continues in the halls of Brussels, a gas crisis has been on the march. Western European politicians are only starting to hear the warning.
From last October, Russian gas exports to Europe dropped sharply, mostly by constricting flows through the Yamal natural gas pipeline system that goes through Poland. Storage facilities within Europe controlled by Russia were not refilled for winter, even while others were charged as normal.
A variety of explanations came from state gas export monopoly Gazprom and other commentators: Russia needed first to fill its domestic storage before the cold season; its production was down following a fire at one of its fields; it was a commercial move to push up prices to earn more for its remaining sales; and it was pressuring Germany to approve the operation of the new Nord Stream II pipeline.
On February 24 — the day the Ukraine war started — the true motivation became clear: squeezing Europe to deter any objections to what the Kremlin thought would be a quick, victorious attack against Kyiv.
Similar obfuscation and the proffering of multiple non-exclusive explanations for Russia's conduct have persisted this year. European customers have been disconnected stepwise, with people regarded as particularly “unfriendly” or refusing to meet Russia’s demands for payment in roubles affected.
Poland and Bulgaria were cut off on April 27, with Finland on May 21, Denmark, Netherlands and some German supply similarly affected on May 31. Despite this, the EU Commission eventually waved through Russia’s payment plan.
Transit of Russian gas through Ukraine has continued through the fighting, quite remarkably, but it is now at about a quarter of last year’s levels.
In May, Ukraine closed the Sokhranovka station, which transits about 8 per cent of gas from Russia to Europe, blaming interference by occupying forces. It proposed a different transit point, but Gazprom claimed this was not technically feasible.
On May 11, Moscow sanctioned the operator of the Yamal pipeline — of which Gazprom still owns 48 per cent. Yamal flows this year have been far below historic levels and dropped to zero for the last few weeks. Even shipments through the Turkstream pipeline, which (naturally) supplies Turkey, and through it some south-east European countries, have fallen away recently.
Last Tuesday, Gazprom said Canadian sanctions were preventing the return from repairs of a turbine used to compress gas, reducing flows on the Nord Stream I pipeline to Germany by 60 per cent. Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, France and Italy have also had reductions in deliveries.
German economy minister Robert Habeck said in early March: “I do not expect it [a cut of Nord Stream I deliveries] because Russia must know … it will turn out to be an unreliable supplier.”
That ship of Russian reliability had already sailed in October, and was definitely scuttled by the EU strategy to get off Russian gas entirely. Now, he realises, “the Russian side’s argument is simply a pretext. It is obviously a strategy to unsettle and drive up prices”.
Nord Stream I closes entirely for annual maintenance between July 11 and July 21 — it will be critical to see whether it resumes afterwards, and at what levels, or this serves as an excuse for further reductions.
Europe has been hurrying through the low-demand summer to refill storage before the winter heating season. Germany’s stocks are 52 per cent full, and it wants them 90 per cent filled by November.
But on June 8, there was an explosion at the Freeport liquefied natural gas plant in Texas, which provides almost a fifth of US exports. The plant, which has suffered a string of previous accidents, will be out of action for three months and may not be back to full capacity until the end of the year. This endangers European plans to replace Russian with American gas.
The EU has proceeded with imposing sanctions, including the plan to phase out Russian oil imports by the end of this year, accommodating the interests of all member states. The problem with this approach in an adversarial situation should be all too clear.
The Kremlin can move faster in response, not bound by legal considerations, it can retaliate in unexpected ways, and try to pick off European countries individually. It already benefits from a fifth column in Budapest.
Russia’s moves also follow economic logic. What is the point of exporting large volumes of oil and gas at very high prices to accumulate funds that cannot be saved overseas (because they might be seized), and cannot be spent on imports (because sanctions prevent buying anything useful)?
Piling up cash at home causes the rouble to appreciate and makes other industries uncompetitive. The rouble is now at 57.5 to the dollar, much stronger than pre-war levels of about 75, while Russian Industry Minister Denis Manturov says metals exports are only competitive at 70 roubles per dollar.
If the EU cuts off oil and gas imports, Russia may as well move first and turn up the pressure. Its political and financial motives align. Meanwhile, Brussels seems to imagine it is still dealing with a bloodless opponent, like climate, that does not retaliate or pre-empt.
European states need to be nimbler, to anticipate their opponent’s moves — imagining the worst — and to avoid fighting on ground of Moscow’s choosing. Defending Europe’s gas supplies does not have to be done necessarily or only through the gas market.
As Napoleon said, in war, “the moral is to the physical as three is to one”. There are no easy solutions. European governments need to prepare their citizens for a test of ingenuity and endurance. Not just this coming winter, but the next one too, are going to be very hard.
Robin M Mills is the chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
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The stats
Ship name: MSC Bellissima
Ship class: Meraviglia Class
Delivery date: February 27, 2019
Gross tonnage: 171,598 GT
Passenger capacity: 5,686
Crew members: 1,536
Number of cabins: 2,217
Length: 315.3 metres
Maximum speed: 22.7 knots (42kph)
More on Quran memorisation:
DUBAI WORLD CUP RACE CARD
6.30pm Meydan Classic Trial US$100,000 (Turf) 1,400m
7.05pm Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,400m
7.40pm UAE 2000 Guineas Group Three $250,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
8.15pm Dubai Sprint Listed Handicap $175,000 (T) 1,200m
8.50pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-2 Group Two $450,000 (D) 1,900m
9.25pm Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,800m
10pm Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,400m
The National selections
6.30pm Well Of Wisdom
7.05pm Summrghand
7.40pm Laser Show
8.15pm Angel Alexander
8.50pm Benbatl
9.25pm Art Du Val
10pm: Beyond Reason
INDIA SQUAD
Rohit Sharma (captain), Shikhar Dhawan (vice-captain), KL Rahul, Suresh Raina, Manish Pandey, Dinesh Karthik (wicketkeeper), Deepak Hooda, Washington Sundar, Yuzvendra Chahal, Axar Patel, Vijay Shankar, Shardul Thakur, Jaydev Unadkat, Mohammad Siraj and Rishabh Pant (wicketkeeper)
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Key changes
Commission caps
For life insurance products with a savings component, Peter Hodgins of Clyde & Co said different caps apply to the saving and protection elements:
• For the saving component, a cap of 4.5 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 90 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term).
• On the protection component, there is a cap of 10 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 160 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term).
• Indemnity commission, the amount of commission that can be advanced to a product salesperson, can be 50 per cent of the annualised premium for the first year or 50 per cent of the total commissions on the policy calculated.
• The remaining commission after deduction of the indemnity commission is paid equally over the premium payment term.
• For pure protection products, which only offer a life insurance component, the maximum commission will be 10 per cent of the annualised premium multiplied by the length of the policy in years.
Disclosure
Customers must now be provided with a full illustration of the product they are buying to ensure they understand the potential returns on savings products as well as the effects of any charges. There is also a “free-look” period of 30 days, where insurers must provide a full refund if the buyer wishes to cancel the policy.
“The illustration should provide for at least two scenarios to illustrate the performance of the product,” said Mr Hodgins. “All illustrations are required to be signed by the customer.”
Another illustration must outline surrender charges to ensure they understand the costs of exiting a fixed-term product early.
Illustrations must also be kept updatedand insurers must provide information on the top five investment funds available annually, including at least five years' performance data.
“This may be segregated based on the risk appetite of the customer (in which case, the top five funds for each segment must be provided),” said Mr Hodgins.
Product providers must also disclose the ratio of protection benefit to savings benefits. If a protection benefit ratio is less than 10 per cent "the product must carry a warning stating that it has limited or no protection benefit" Mr Hodgins added.
MORE ON TURKEY'S SYRIA OFFENCE
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 240hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 390Nm at 3,000rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh122,745
On sale: now
more from Janine di Giovanni
ULTRA PROCESSED FOODS
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
- Margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars
- Energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces
- Infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes
- Many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts
The five new places of worship
Church of South Indian Parish
St Andrew's Church Mussaffah branch
St Andrew's Church Al Ain branch
St John's Baptist Church, Ruwais
Church of the Virgin Mary and St Paul the Apostle, Ruwais
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Straightforward ways to reduce sugar in your family's diet
- Ban fruit juice and sodas
- Eat a hearty breakfast that contains fats and wholegrains, such as peanut butter on multigrain toast or full-fat plain yoghurt with whole fruit and nuts, to avoid the need for a 10am snack
- Give young children plain yoghurt with whole fruits mashed into it
- Reduce the number of cakes, biscuits and sweets. Reserve them for a treat
- Don’t eat dessert every day
- Make your own smoothies. Always use the whole fruit to maintain the benefit of its fibre content and don’t add any sweeteners
- Always go for natural whole foods over processed, packaged foods. Ask yourself would your grandmother have eaten it?
- Read food labels if you really do feel the need to buy processed food
- Eat everything in moderation
One in nine do not have enough to eat
Created in 1961, the World Food Programme is pledged to fight hunger worldwide as well as providing emergency food assistance in a crisis.
One of the organisation’s goals is the Zero Hunger Pledge, adopted by the international community in 2015 as one of the 17 Sustainable Goals for Sustainable Development, to end world hunger by 2030.
The WFP, a branch of the United Nations, is funded by voluntary donations from governments, businesses and private donations.
Almost two thirds of its operations currently take place in conflict zones, where it is calculated that people are more than three times likely to suffer from malnutrition than in peaceful countries.
It is currently estimated that one in nine people globally do not have enough to eat.
On any one day, the WFP estimates that it has 5,000 lorries, 20 ships and 70 aircraft on the move.
Outside emergencies, the WFP provides school meals to up to 25 million children in 63 countries, while working with communities to improve nutrition. Where possible, it buys supplies from developing countries to cut down transport cost and boost local economies.
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
THE%20FLASH
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Korean Film Festival 2019 line-up
Innocent Witness, June 26 at 7pm
On Your Wedding Day, June 27 at 7pm
The Great Battle, June 27 at 9pm
The Witch: Part 1. The Subversion, June 28 at 4pm
Romang, June 28 at 6pm
Mal Mo E: The Secret Mission, June 28 at 8pm
Underdog, June 29 at 2pm
Nearby Sky, June 29 at 4pm
A Resistance, June 29 at 6pm
The specs
Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 400hp
Torque: 475Nm
Transmission: 9-speed automatic
Price: From Dh215,900
On sale: Now
Tips for taking the metro
- set out well ahead of time
- make sure you have at least Dh15 on you Nol card, as there could be big queues for top-up machines
- enter the right cabin. The train may be too busy to move between carriages once you're on
- don't carry too much luggage and tuck it under a seat to make room for fellow passengers
'Cheb%20Khaled'
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