It’s been a hairy few weeks for US equity markets.
The S&P 500 moved into “bear market” territory — 20 per cent down from its peak — during Friday’s trading session, but managed to avoid closing at those lows. The index is still down more than 18 per cent year to date and will likely follow the Nasdaq Composite into an official bear market at some point in the coming weeks.
The last time US equities went into a bear market was the first quarter of 2020 at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. That did not last long, however, as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to almost zero and embarked on a massive quantitative easing cycle to support the economy. Meanwhile, the government put money in the pockets of consumers and businesses through various relief and stimulus measures.
The Fed is unlikely to come to the market’s rescue this time around, however. Part of the reason for the recent sell-off in equities has been the re-pricing of interest rate expectations as the Fed has sounded increasingly hawkish in recent weeks.
At the start of the year, the market was pricing only three 25bp rate increases, or 75bp in total, over the course of 2022. We have already had 75bp basis points in rate rises since March, and several Fed speakers have indicated they would like to see the Federal Funds rate rise to at least the neutral level, estimated at 2.5 per cent, before the end of this year. This implies at least another 150bp in rate increases by December.
The market is pricing a more aggressive 175bp in rate hikes over the rest of this year, which would take the upper limit of the Fed Funds rate to 2.75 per cent in December from 0.25 per cent in January. An aggressive reduction in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet would tighten financial conditions even further.
But higher borrowing costs are not the only factor driving equity prices lower; markets are becoming increasingly concerned about the likelihood of a recession in the US over the next 18 months. The US economy shrank on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the first quarter of 2022, although this was largely brushed off as due to technical factors. Imports increased as port disruptions eased and inventories, which firms had aggressively built up in the fourth quarter of 2021, declined in the first quarter of this year.
The US consumer was in a strong position, it was argued, and would continue to drive economic growth, albeit at a slower pace, as the Fed raised borrowing costs.
There is plenty of data to support this view: the unemployment rate is at 3.6 per cent, almost the pre-pandemic low; wage growth is strong; household balance sheets are in good shape; and there are still excess savings that would allow consumers to maintain spending even as inflation erodes purchasing power.
However, the quarterly earnings reports of large US retailers including Amazon, Walmart and Target, suggest that there are cracks under the surface with respect to the US consumer.
While retail sales growth remains solid, rising 0.9 per cent month-on-month in April, consumers appear to be reducing spending on discretionary items such as homewares and clothes, and spending more on essential (and lower margin) items such as groceries, as higher food and energy prices affect spending decisions. Moreover, credit card spending is on the rise, according to some US banks.
While a US recession does not appear to be anyone’s base case scenario at the moment, growth is expected to slow sharply by the end of this year as the Fed’s rate rises start to bite. This is necessary for inflation to slow, which is the Fed’s main goal this year.
Policymakers and most analysts have argued that there is a path to a “soft landing” where US growth slows enough to reduce inflationary pressures, without pushing the economy into a recession. But given that interest rates are a relatively blunt tool and can take months to feed through to the real economy, there is a non-negligible risk that the Fed moves too far too fast and the world’s largest economy starts to contract in 2023.
RESULTS
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 Group 1 (PA) Dh119,373 (Dirt) 1,600m
Winner: Brraq, Adrie de Vries (jockey), Jean-Claude Pecout (trainer)
7.05pm: Handicap (TB) Dh102,500 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Taamol, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (Turf) 1,800m
Winner: Eqtiraan, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
8.15pm: UAE 1000 Guineas Trial (TB) Dh183,650 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Soft Whisper, Pat Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor.
9.50pm: Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Hypothetical, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer.
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,000m
Winner: Etisalat, Sando Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA
Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
The cost of Covid testing around the world
Egypt
Dh514 for citizens; Dh865 for tourists
Information can be found through VFS Global.
Jordan
Dh212
Centres include the Speciality Hospital, which now offers drive-through testing.
Cambodia
Dh478
Travel tests are managed by the Ministry of Health and National Institute of Public Health.
Zanzibar
AED 295
Zanzibar Public Health Emergency Operations Centre, located within the Lumumba Secondary School compound.
Abu Dhabi
Dh85
Abu Dhabi’s Seha has test centres throughout the UAE.
UK
From Dh400
Heathrow Airport now offers drive through and clinic-based testing, starting from Dh400 and up to Dh500 for the PCR test.
Honeymoonish
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'The worst thing you can eat'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
SPECS
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Difference between fractional ownership and timeshare
Although similar in its appearance, the concept of a fractional title deed is unlike that of a timeshare, which usually involves multiple investors buying “time” in a property whereby the owner has the right to occupation for a specified period of time in any year, as opposed to the actual real estate, said John Peacock, Head of Indirect Tax and Conveyancing, BSA Ahmad Bin Hezeem & Associates, a law firm.
Skoda Superb Specs
Engine: 2-litre TSI petrol
Power: 190hp
Torque: 320Nm
Price: From Dh147,000
Available: Now
New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
The Uefa Awards winners
Uefa Men's Player of the Year: Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)
Uefa Women's Player of the Year: Lucy Bronze (Lyon)
Best players of the 2018/19 Uefa Champions League
Goalkeeper: Alisson (Liverpool)
Defender: Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)
Midfielder: Frenkie de Jong (Ajax)
Forward: Lionel Messi (Barcelona)
Uefa President's Award: Eric Cantona
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SPEC%20SHEET
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ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
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Racecard
6.35pm: The Madjani Stakes – Group 2 (PA) Dh97,500 (Dirt) 1,900m
7.10pm: Evidenza – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,200m
7.45pm: The Longines Conquest – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 2,000m
8.20: The Longines Elegant – Conditions (TB) Dh82,500 (D)
8.35pm: The Dubai Creek Mile – Listed (TB) Dh132,500 (D) 1,600m
9.30pm: Mirdif Stakes – Conditions (TB) Dh120,000 (D) 1,400m
10.05pm: The Longines Record – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,900m
Results
5pm: Warsan Lake – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 2,200m; Winner: Dhaw Al Reef, Sam Hitchcott (jockey), Abdallah Al Hammadi (trainer)
5.30pm: Al Quadra Lake – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Mrouwah Al Gharbia, Sando Paiva, Abubakar Daud
6pm: Hatta Lake – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: AF Yatroq, George Buckell, Ernst Oertel
6.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Ashton Tourettes, Adries de Vries, Ibrahim Aseel
7pm: Abu Dhabi Championship – Listed (PA) Dh180,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Bahar Muscat, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7.30pm: Zakher Lake – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Alfareeq, Dane O’Neill, Musabah Al Muhairi.
The%20specs%3A%202024%20Mercedes%20E200
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F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Results
6pm: Dubai Trophy – Conditions (TB) $100,000 (Turf) 1,200m
Winner: Silent Speech, William Buick (jockey), Charlie Appleby
(trainer)
6.35pm: Jumeirah Derby Trial – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (T)
1,800m
Winner: Island Falcon, Frankie Dettori, Saeed bin Suroor
7.10pm: UAE 2000 Guineas Trial – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (Dirt)
1,400m
Winner: Rawy, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer
7.45pm: Al Rashidiya – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner: Desert Fire, Hector Crouch, Saeed bin Suroor
8.20pm: Al Fahidi Fort – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Naval Crown, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
8.55pm: Dubawi Stakes – Group 3 (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Al Tariq, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watsons
9.30pm: Aliyah – Rated Conditions (TB) $80,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Dubai Icon, Patrick Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor
'The Woman in the House Across the Street from the Girl in the Window'
Director:Michael Lehmann
Stars:Kristen Bell
Rating: 1/5
Sheer grandeur
The Owo building is 14 storeys high, seven of which are below ground, with the 30,000 square feet of amenities located subterranean, including a 16-seat private cinema, seven lounges, a gym, games room, treatment suites and bicycle storage.
A clear distinction between the residences and the Raffles hotel with the amenities operated separately.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Profile of Tarabut Gateway
Founder: Abdulla Almoayed
Based: UAE
Founded: 2017
Number of employees: 35
Sector: FinTech
Raised: $13 million
Backers: Berlin-based venture capital company Target Global, Kingsway, CE Ventures, Entrée Capital, Zamil Investment Group, Global Ventures, Almoayed Technologies and Mad’a Investment.
RESULTS
6pm: Mazrat Al Ruwayah – Group 2 (PA) $40,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
Winner: AF Alajaj, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
6.35pm: Race of Future – Handicap (TB) $80,000 (Turf) 2,410m
Winner: Global Storm, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
7.10pm: UAE 2000 Guineas – Group 3 (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Azure Coast, Antonio Fresu, Pavel Vashchenko
7.45pm: Business Bay Challenge – Listed (TB) $100,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Storm Damage, Patrick Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor
20.20pm: Curlin Stakes – Listed (TB) $100,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Appreciated, Fernando Jara, Doug O’Neill
8.55pm: Singspiel Stakes – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner: Lord Glitters, Daniel Tudhope, David O'Meara
9.30pm: Al Shindagha Sprint – Group 3 (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Meraas, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Pieces of Her
Stars: Toni Collette, Bella Heathcote, David Wenham, Omari Hardwick
Director: Minkie Spiro
Rating:2/5
Trolls World Tour
Directed by: Walt Dohrn, David Smith
Starring: Anna Kendrick, Justin Timberlake
Rating: 4 stars
Bundesliga fixtures
Saturday, May 16 (kick-offs UAE time)
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke (4.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Freiburg (4.30pm)
Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin (4.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn (4.30pm)
Augsburg v Wolfsburg (4.30pm)
Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Monchengladbach (7.30pm)
Sunday, May 17
Cologne v Mainz (4.30pm),
Union Berlin v Bayern Munich (7pm)
Monday, May 18
Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen (9.30pm)
