A mariner’s map is the inverse of a landlubber’s: the continents are blanks while coastlines and seas are rich with symbols. The same inversion of perspective illuminates energy geopolitics.
The Indian Ocean, more than its surrounding territories, has been a coherent area of trade and cultural exchange since before the Roman times. Now long-term trends of geo-economics and the sharp edge of conflict in Europe demand this holistic view.
The third-largest ocean is outlined by critical maritime transit points, anti-clockwise from the Cape of Good Hope, the Mozambique Channel, the Suez Canal and Bab Al Mandeb, the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Malacca and Lombok Strait. Bypass oil and gas pipelines through Myanmar to South-Eastern China have become lifelines themselves.
Just before the pandemic, a third of global oil exports came from the Gulf, and 85 per cent of that went to the Middle East, Africa and, above all, Asia. The Gulf accounted for a quarter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, with three-quarters of these exports to the Middle East and Asia.
The Indian Ocean will become more critical. Chinese President Xi Jinping perceived this when he proposed the ocean as the heart of the “maritime Silk Road” in a 2013 speech to the Indonesian parliament. He then bolted it to overland Eurasian connectivity in the Belt-and-Road Initiative.
Its rising importance was already in train before this year, because of important shifts on the supply and demand side. Increasing exports are driven by the likely long-term rise in the Middle East’s share of world oil production, the plans for greatly expanded LNG production in Qatar and the UAE, and important new LNG projects in East Africa (Mozambique and Tanzania) and Western Australia.
Growing Asian economies are boosting energy imports. China has overtaken Japan as the world’s biggest LNG buyer. It is the world’s largest net importer of oil, with India in second place, Japan third, South Korea fourth and Singapore eighth. Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam are also growing LNG customers.
As Europe reduces or eliminates reliance on Russian hydrocarbons, Middle Eastern countries would shift some of their exports westward, while more Russian oil, LNG and coal would head through Suez to south and east Asia.
And these will be joined by new energy carriers. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Western Australia and the Northern Territory have ambitions to be leading players in the emerging global business of hydrogen. That will flow to Japan, South Korea and through the Suez to Europe.
Yet these critical flows pass through a contested region. There are local problems: the ISIS-inspired insurgency around the LNG plant in northern Mozambique, continued instability in Somalia, the Tigray war in Ethiopia, Sri Lanka’s economic crisis and the coup and its opposition in Myanmar.
There are also the international conflicts: the protracted war in Yemen, tit-for-tat attacks on shipping in the Arabian and Red Seas, and the three-quarters of a century long confrontation between India and Pakistan.
And looming over everything is the shadow of China, the geopolitical giant. It has interests in ports around the Indian Ocean, such as Gwadar in Pakistan, which faces Iran’s Indian-focused harbour of Chabahar, Malé in the Maldives, Mombasa in Kenya, and its first overseas military base in Djibouti. The commercial viability, scale of real investments and strategic coherence of this “string of pearls” is often exaggerated. But any threat to unfettered maritime access worries India, isolated overland by geography.
What should a new security architecture look like? Any grand alliance including extra-regional powers would appear to counter someone: not Iran, too paltry a threat on oceanic scales, so therefore for or against China.
The Central Treaty Organisation in the Middle East, and the South East Asian Treaty Organisation, were set up in 1955 and intended as American- and British-backed analogues of Nato, to contain Soviet expansion. But they foundered by the late 1970s because of the absence of non-aligned India, internal rivalries, the Iranian Revolution and the Vietnam War.
More than a decade ago, geopolitical thinker Robert Kaplan mused on a “Nato of the seas” for the Indian Ocean, comprising Australia, Singapore, South Africa, Pakistan, India and Oman. Today, such a grand scheme would surely include the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Indonesia and, in future, Bangladesh are other essential states.
But he was well aware of two great problems: containing the rivalry between Islamabad and New Delhi, and maintaining strategic coherence with slow ships across a vast and diverse area. The growing alignment of Pakistan with China, and Beijing’s own inroads in strategic locations such as Sri Lanka and the Maldives, complicate the whole concept as a countermove to China. And the US seems less likely to be an anchor, as GCC states have growing concerns over its regional commitment and focus.
In September, the Aukus pact linked Australia, the UK and the US, though at the cost of annoying France. Since 2017, the US has renewed efforts to draw India together with Australia and Japan in the “Quad”. But despite India’s Himalayan clashes with China, New Delhi has been shy of any appearance of an anti-Chinese alliance. China is an essential energy customer and investor for the GCC and Iraq, as well as Iran.
A more constructive system would be inclusive rather than exclusive. Avoiding the dangerous great-power competition re-emerging in eastern Europe and east Asia, it would still need a mission that is not comprehensive to the point of vagueness.
Tackling terrorism, illegal fishing, piracy and natural disasters are worthy efforts but insufficient. Climate and the environment offer grander themes. Order may have to emerge from a series of open associations.
Interruption of free commerce through the ocean and its subsidiary straits and gulfs would be disastrous for the world economy and the littoral states. A pragmatic Indian Ocean Treaty Association could bring an “Iota” of security to this pivotal sea.
Robin M. Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, second leg result:
Ajax 2-3 Tottenham
Tottenham advance on away goals rule after tie ends 3-3 on aggregate
Final: June 1, Madrid
THE BIO: Mohammed Ashiq Ali
Proudest achievement: “I came to a new country and started this shop”
Favourite TV programme: the news
Favourite place in Dubai: Al Fahidi. “They started the metro in 2009 and I didn’t take it yet.”
Family: six sons in Dubai and a daughter in Faisalabad
'Top Gun: Maverick'
Rating: 4/5
Directed by: Joseph Kosinski
Starring: Tom Cruise, Val Kilmer, Jennifer Connelly, Jon Hamm, Miles Teller, Glen Powell, Ed Harris
Results
5.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,400m; Winner: Mcmanaman, Sam Hitchcock (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer)
6.05pm: Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Bawaasil, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson
6.40pm: Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (Dirt) 1,400m; Winner: Bochart, Fabrice Veron, Satish Seemar
7.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: Mutaraffa, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
7.50pm: Longines Stakes – Conditions (TB) Dh120,00 (D) 1,900m; Winner: Rare Ninja, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
8.25pm: Zabeel Trophy – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh120,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Alfareeq, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
9pm: Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (T) 2,410m; Winner: Good Tidings, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
9.35pm: Handicap (TB) Dh92,500 (T) 2,000m; Winner: Zorion, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi, Helal Al Alawi
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
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Pakistan Super League
Previous winners
2016 Islamabad United
2017 Peshawar Zalmi
2018 Islamabad United
2019 Quetta Gladiators
Most runs Kamran Akmal – 1,286
Most wickets Wahab Riaz –65
WHAT IS GRAPHENE?
It was discovered in 2004, when Russian-born Manchester scientists Andrei Geim and Kostya Novoselov were experimenting with sticky tape and graphite, the material used as lead in pencils.
Placing the tape on the graphite and peeling it, they managed to rip off thin flakes of carbon. In the beginning they got flakes consisting of many layers of graphene. But when they repeated the process many times, the flakes got thinner.
By separating the graphite fragments repeatedly, they managed to create flakes that were just one atom thick. Their experiment led to graphene being isolated for the very first time.
In 2010, Geim and Novoselov were awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics.
What is graphene?
Graphene is a single layer of carbon atoms arranged like honeycomb.
It was discovered in 2004, when Russian-born Manchester scientists Andrei Geim and Kostya Novoselov were "playing about" with sticky tape and graphite - the material used as "lead" in pencils.
Placing the tape on the graphite and peeling it, they managed to rip off thin flakes of carbon. In the beginning they got flakes consisting of many layers of graphene. But as they repeated the process many times, the flakes got thinner.
By separating the graphite fragments repeatedly, they managed to create flakes that were just one atom thick. Their experiment had led to graphene being isolated for the very first time.
At the time, many believed it was impossible for such thin crystalline materials to be stable. But examined under a microscope, the material remained stable, and when tested was found to have incredible properties.
It is many times times stronger than steel, yet incredibly lightweight and flexible. It is electrically and thermally conductive but also transparent. The world's first 2D material, it is one million times thinner than the diameter of a single human hair.
But the 'sticky tape' method would not work on an industrial scale. Since then, scientists have been working on manufacturing graphene, to make use of its incredible properties.
In 2010, Geim and Novoselov were awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics. Their discovery meant physicists could study a new class of two-dimensional materials with unique properties.
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Company Profile
Company name: Big Farm Brothers
Started: September 2020
Founders: Vishal Mahajan and Navneet Kaur
Based: Dubai Investment Park 1
Industry: food and agriculture
Initial investment: $205,000
Current staff: eight to 10
Future plan: to expand to other GCC markets
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Results
- Brock Lesnar retained the WWE Universal title against Roman Reigns
- Braun Strowman and Nicolas won the Raw Tag Team titles against Sheamus and Cesaro
- AJ Styles retained the WWE World Heavyweight title against Shinsuke Nakamura
- Nia Jax won the Raw Women’s title against Alexa Bliss
- Daniel Bryan and Shane McMahon beat Kevin Owens and Sami Zayn
- The Undertaker beat John Cena
- The Bludgeon Brothers won the SmackDown Tag Team titles against the Usos and New Day
- Ronda Rousey and Kurt Angle beat Triple H and Stephanie McMahon
- Jinder Mahal won the United States title against Randy Orton, Rusev and Bobby Roode
- Charlotte retained the SmackDown Women’s title against Asuka
- Seth Rollins won the Intercontinental title against The Miz and Finn Balor
- Naomi won the first WrestleMania Women’s Battle Royal
- Cedric Alexander won the vacant Cruiserweight title against Mustafa Ali
- Matt Hardy won the Andre the Giant Battle Royal
Virtual banks explained
What is a virtual bank?
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority defines it as a bank that delivers services through the internet or other electronic channels instead of physical branches. That means not only facilitating payments but accepting deposits and making loans, just like traditional ones. Other terms used interchangeably include digital or digital-only banks or neobanks. By contrast, so-called digital wallets or e-wallets such as Apple Pay, PayPal or Google Pay usually serve as intermediaries between a consumer’s traditional account or credit card and a merchant, usually via a smartphone or computer.
What’s the draw in Asia?
Hundreds of millions of people under-served by traditional institutions, for one thing. In China, India and elsewhere, digital wallets such as Alipay, WeChat Pay and Paytm have already become ubiquitous, offering millions of people an easy way to store and spend their money via mobile phone. Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines are also among the world’s biggest under-banked countries; together they have almost half a billion people.
Is Hong Kong short of banks?
No, but the city is among the most cash-reliant major economies, leaving room for newcomers to disrupt the entrenched industry. Ant Financial, an Alibaba Group Holding affiliate that runs Alipay and MYBank, and Tencent Holdings, the company behind WeBank and WeChat Pay, are among the owners of the eight ventures licensed to create virtual banks in Hong Kong, with operations expected to start as early as the end of the year.
No Shame
Lily Allen
(Parlophone)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
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Iftar programme at the Sheikh Mohammed Centre for Cultural Understanding
Established in 1998, the Sheikh Mohammed Centre for Cultural Understanding was created with a vision to teach residents about the traditions and customs of the UAE. Its motto is ‘open doors, open minds’. All year-round, visitors can sign up for a traditional Emirati breakfast, lunch or dinner meal, as well as a range of walking tours, including ones to sites such as the Jumeirah Mosque or Al Fahidi Historical Neighbourhood.
Every year during Ramadan, an iftar programme is rolled out. This allows guests to break their fast with the centre’s presenters, visit a nearby mosque and observe their guides while they pray. These events last for about two hours and are open to the public, or can be booked for a private event.
Until the end of Ramadan, the iftar events take place from 7pm until 9pm, from Saturday to Thursday. Advanced booking is required.
For more details, email openminds@cultures.ae or visit www.cultures.ae
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
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